Here we go!!! The real opening day is upon us tomorrow and it is time to start selecting some actual SAGNOF targets for the week upcoming. Most of my articles this season will feature some of my top waiver wire targets with match-ups for the week and why I think there’s potential for some bonus stolen bases out there on the trash heap. I’ll be able to do some projections further into the week once rotations get more solidified. To start I’ve got you lined up with some picks for the opening few days where some pitcher match-ups have been announced.
Giants vs Padres – March 28th
Jackson Merrill – Merrill made the roster for the Padres for Korea and will face off against Logan Webb and the Giants opening day. It is also possible if you drafted early guys haven’t checked their lineups since the draft and he is sitting out there on waivers. Logan Webb allows an 83.3% success rate on the base paths and has given up an average of .093 Stolen Bases/IP the last two seasons. His catcher Patrick Bailey is ranked #2 at throwing success according to Statcast, but I think this is more on Webb and his delivery with men on base. Merrill stole two bases in Spring Training and will be in the lineup as they didn’t put him on the roster to ride the bench. He could be a solid option for opening day to swipe a base.
Red Sox vs Mariners – March 29th
Connor Wong – How about a waiver wire catcher for some SAGNOF. The Red Sox will face George Kirby, and while it is tough to get on base vs Kirby, once you’re there the SB potential is good. He gives up an 81% success rate on the bases and .096 SB/IP. The catcher is likely Cal Raleigh who throws out 29% of runners at 2nd and is ranked 9th amongst qualifying catchers. As we’ve stated before the key is the pitcher when it comes to predicting stolen bases unless the catcher is like Salvador Perez. As for Connor Wong, he stole eight bases in 400 plate appearances last year and it is possible the situation could come up for him to swipe a bag on Friday.
Cubs vs Rangers – March 30th
Leody Taveras/ Travis Jankowski – Kyle Hendricks is past his prime. He allows more base path traffic than he used to, and he has never been good at keeping guys close on the bases. He allows a 92% opponent success rate and .168 SB/IP. The catcher will either be Yan Gomes who had a 26% throw out rate in 2023 or possibly Miguel Amaya who was at 13%, good for 22nd and 38th respectively amongst qualifying catchers. One of the two guys listed above should be in Center Field on Saturday for the Rangers. Both have a sprint speed above 29 Ft/Second and should have a chance to run on Saturday if they get on base against Hendricks. See who is in the lineup and SAGNOF away!
Victor Scott?
I’m sure he will steal some bases.