We’re eight good sleeps away from the real Opening Day. I know the games count in Japan this week, but If you think of that as Opening Day you’re crazy. This means that in two weeks I will begin to focus on strategy for the upcoming MLB week and players to target that might be on waivers for steals. No article for me next week as I’ll be watching opening day from Mexico.
So this is it, the final Draft Prep SAGNOF article. So far for stolen base draft prep, we’ve discussed a few different topics. We started with what to do if you miss on steals early in the draft. Next, it was a look at coaching situations and who might be helped or hurt by managerial changes. Then we focused on players who have moved teams that may be able to increase their output in 2024. Finally, we looked at dual category guys that can help you out.
In our final draft prep installment I am going to pull some names out for those deep league players. AL/NL Only guys or NFBC Draft Champions targets that could help you win pull some points in the steals category. These will all be guys getting drafted at over #400 at NFBC.
Ryan Bliss, 2B – Seattle Mariners
He didn’t have a great showing at the plate with a 31% whiff rate, but he also boasts double digit walk rates in the minors in the upper levels. I also don’t think the K-rate stays that high and he should hit for slightly better average than most projections are handing out for him. Probably will be relegated to the 9-hole in the lineup, but if Robles struggles at all he could also get a shot to leadoff and he’s faster than Robles. I think 20 SB should be a breeze with a chance for 30. He’s blissful at this ADP if y’all need some steals.
Caleb Durbin, IF – Milwaukee Brewers
In 114 games Durbin stole 60 bases last year across the minors and fall league. The competition on the Brewers infield however isn’t yet over. Oliver Dunn seems to have the inside track to get the starting 3B job. Durbin would give him a natural platoon partner and speed off the bench. He’s a little heavy on the pull side for hitting, but his pitch recognition skills are elite. He walked more than he struck out at both AA and AAA. Pairing those on base skills with his speed gets him into at least a platoon role to start I think, and if his glove can play at third he should get more ABs as the year progresses. Pencil him in for at least 25 steals with a chance for way more if he gets the ABs. Last year Jose Caballero was my guy I was drafting late everywhere. This year it’s Durbin.
Chandler Simpson, OF – Tampa Bay Rays
He won’t be up to start the season, but this kid has 80 grade speed and excellent on-base skills walking more than he struck out at AA last season. He also hit .355. The downside is he is a no-power dude with just one Home Run across his professional career. However, if you have a spot to stash him he’ll be up at some point and when he does some of the 104 bases he stole last year in the minors will be counting toward your Major League fantasy team. Yes I said 104.
Nasim Nunez, IF – Washington Nationals
While the Nats have lots of options for their final opening day roster spot including Jose Tena and Juan Yepez both of those players are defensive liabilities. They already have Josh Bell and Nathaniel Lowe locking in the first base spot so Yepez doesn’t seem to fit. Paul DeJong has seemingly locked up the third base spot and with Tena’s defensive struggles, it could open the door for Nunez who is by far the best defensive option they would have coming off the bench. If he starts the year up ceiling is pretty high, but even if he comes up later in the season he will still be worth rostering in deeper leagues for steals. He has 112 of them the last two seasons combined in the minors and was 8 for 10 during his brief stint in the show.
See Y’all after Opening Day!
I love these deep dives. Any thoughts on Austin Hays as a comeback player this year? Seems like he’s motivated, and ripping it up in spring. Batting cleanup behind EDC is a nice projection, too.
I just worry about playing time. It looks like he’s got an every day roll in left. However, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Cincinnati this year.
Yeah – I think they value his defense a lot, as the rest of their outfield is pretty terrible in that regard. So maybe that will keep him in the lineup as long as he continues to hit.