It’s a quiet week on the injury front *vigorously knocks on all wooden objects within reach* so we’re going with something a little different in the name of prediction season!
If you know me, you know I have TAEKS. So, no introduction necessary…let’s get right to it.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Does Not Reach 20 HR or 20 SB
Tearing an ACL midseason and returning the following year is no easy task. Tearing that same ACL twice in three years should be viewed a lot more critically than ADP suggests. Ronald Acuna Jr. returned good fantasy value in 2021 after tearing his ACL in 2020. He stole 29 bases and hit 15 home runs in 119 games.
Acuna Jr. claims that he will be taking his foot off the gas when running the bases this year. He wants to be more careful which makes a 40/70 pace like 2023 quite unlikely. The Braves announced last week that he will be out until early-to-mid May and thus we should expect him to play a similar number of games as 2021. With his power potentially sapped like that season as he re-adjusts to his new-new knee, this could be a pedestrian season (compared to his standard) for the perennial superstar.
Michael Harris II Returns 1st Round Value
Michael Harris II is the Braves OF you want in 2025. He has his share of injury issues but compared to Ronald Acuna Jr., they are nicks and bruises. His HRs/SBs on the surface and pace-wise across the past two seasons do not appear tantalizing but at full strength, Harris II is a fantasy monster.
Harris II posted a .312 wOBA with a ..344 xwOBA last season. He underperformed his expected average and slugging by a significant margin in 2024 and could flip that in 2025 with his speed and contact ability.
Jordan Westburg Finishes as the Best 2B
Jordan Westburg posted 18 HR, 57 runs, and 63 RBI last season. This comes across as pedestrian but he did it in 107 games! Westburg missed time last season due to a fractured hand yet did enough to show us his real potential. The young Orioles’ 2B slashed .269/.317/.497 before his injury and was underperforming his season-long .353 xwOBA with a .340 wOBA.
With the Orioles moving their left-field wall back in and Westburg being right-handed, we could witness a massive fantasy season in this top-tier Baltimore offense.
Brandon Lowe Parties Like It’s 2021 With Nearly 40 HR
Brandon Lowe hit 39 home runs in 2021 and has not accrued over 21 in a single season since. Nevertheless, the veteran 2B should benefit from the new Rays ballpark in 2025. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay has similar dimensions to Yankee Stadium. The short porch in right field will be a huge factor for offensive production, especially for left-handed bats like Lowe. On top of the short porch, playing outdoors in Tampa Bay should be beneficial when the wind is blowing out.
The biggest deterrent for Lowe in recent seasons has been his health. Issues like his knee have prevented him from playing over 110 games since 2021. He is entering this season at full strength and should hopefully play a majority of the season.
Michael Conforto Finishes as a top-25 OF
Michael Conforto not only moves from Oracle Stadium’s extreme pitcher-friendly confines to the neutral Dodger Stadium but he also gets the benefit of hitting in the Dodgers’ elite lineup! Conforto underperformed his xStats similar to Jordan Westburg last year. His .327 wOBA was well behind a .350 xwOBA. While concerns over a platoon are valid and should begin that way, Conforto did have reverse splits last season and a hot start to the season could force the Dodgers’ hand.
With the benefit of this new offense, park, and general regression, we could see another monster fantasy season from Conforto.
Brandon Pfaadt Finishes as a Top-20 SP
Brandon Pfaadt went crazy in the second half of last season. From June 30 on, he posted a 22.6% K-BB, 3.23 FIP, and 3.11 xFIP. His ERA was 5.00 in this span but we know ERA is fake. Pfaadt was mired by unlucky stats like a .360 BABIP and 63.5% left on base rate. The young DBacks SP is a stud in the making and should post a quality fantasy season with plus ratios, plenty of strikeouts, and wins on a good Arizona team.
A.J. Smith-Shawver Finishes as a Top-30 SP
AJ Smith-Shawver is a stud in the making. The Braves called him up to the majors at 20 years old and he pitched 25.1 innings that season. While his MLB stats are not good (yet), he was dominant in the minors and elevated levels consistently at a young age. AJSS throws heat (96.4 MPH average fastball velocity) and appears ready to contribute in the bigs all season.
His Spring Training numbers were very good (21.1% K-BB) and he will begin the season in the rotation. This could be temporary if he struggles but upon Spencer Strider’s return. Grant Holmes should be the starter who is pushed out.
Justin Martinez Finishes as a top-5 RP
As a Dodgers fan, it hurts to put multiple Diamondbacks pitchers here but it must be done. Justin Martinez is a superstar reliever who posted a 2.48 ERA, 3.14 SIERA, and 2.88 xFIP last season. His average fastball velocity is just over 100 MPH (can hit 103+) and Arizona just locked him down on a five-year deal.
Kevin Ginkel is starting the season on IL and A.J. Puk is an LHP making the likelihood he’s their closer over Martinez low. Martinez only earned eight saves last season but was successful as the full-time guy for a month between August and September. The Arizona Diamondbacks should with a majority of their games this season, allotting Martinez many opportunities to potentially lead the league in saves.
I thought Acuna tore his other ACL, not the same one. That being said I agree he won’t reach the sb numbers as he’s said he’s not going to run as much. The hrs….well it’s a bold prediction
You are correct with regard to the ACL’s…. Let’s see where he is at the end of June or July. His bat is the same as it has always been. I think he has the “usual” second half, with dramatically reduced SB.
At some point, Atlanta has to trust he is healed and let him loose. You can’t get the best out of a guy if you don’t.
Whoops! I could have sworn but guess it’s the left. Problem with that is it is his plant leg and can affect torque on swings. It’s just a tricky injury for anyone to come back from the following season
Acuna didn’t tear the same ACL twice
Acuna didn’t tear the same ACL