In case you missed it, the All-Star break is upon us! As the (sort of) halfway point in the season, it’s time for teams to either go for broke or build towards next season. Some players have given owners reason to rebuild perhaps due to injuries or ineffectiveness, however not all is lost! Count on the following guys to regain some of their value in the final months.
Brandon Moss, Indians: The 32-year-old slugger hasn’t lived up to the slugger part of that description too well this season. His current .427 slugging percentage is the lowest since his breakout 2012 season, and represents a four-year decline. Off-season hip surgery led me to believe his power may take some time to come back, however April proved to be Moss’ best month at the plate. Despite these flaws — and, you know, his ever-present strikeout rate — I’m finding reason to hang on to, or even buy low, on him. Courtesy of Baseball Heatmaps, Moss’ average fly ball distance of 293.3 feet is significantly higher than his 281.3 average last season and comparable to the 295.6 he put up in 2013. Given his extreme fly ball tendencies — Moss owns the fourth highest FB% since 2011 — and hitter friendly home park, Moss should deliver his fair share of dingers after the ASB. It doesn’t appear to be a case where he is pressing too much at the plate as his 14 percent swinging strike percentage is higher than the league average, it is in line with his career numbers. Moss isn’t chasing at pitches outside of the zone at a significantly higher rate than normal either, and his .267 BABIP is about 30 points below his normal mark. Considering Moss owns a 38.1 percent Hard% for his contact, ranking tied at 15th best among 135 players with at least 300 plate appearances this season, I’m still a believer in him.
Rick Porcello, Red Sox: Sure JB Gilpin left Porcello off of his Top-100 starting pitcher list yesterday, but I’m optimistic for Rick. Normally a ground baller — which is absolutely the job title I would give myself if I worked in lawn care or on a grounds crew — has induced a worm burner just 44.4 percent of the time this season, his lowest single season rate. Going to Brooks Baseball for some velocity and movement tables, more questions than answers hit me. Porcello has tossed his four-seamer at 92 mph this season and his sinker at 91. Both his slider and curve have lost about 2 mph compared to previous seasons, however he’s all but abandoned his slider. The change in speed from his curve was more concerning to me initially, though the results have been excellent on it. Before getting into pitch type linear weights (I’m more of a believer in sequencing than absolute pitch values), Porcello is generating a swing and miss on his curve better than ever this season, over 10 percent. He’s shown a different repertoire this season as the previously linked table shows, throwing his cutter and four-seamer more often now while going to his change less. Even with tinkering with his pitches, without a dip in fastball velocity, I’m still convinced there is at least a league average pitcher in there. He’s been snake bit by the long ball to the tune of a 1.47 HR/9, well above his .97 career average. Sure, a change in parks was bound to hurt some, but adding in a .331 BABIP plus those dingers have left his ERA in shambles. It’d be lazy to write off Porcello’s first half as small sample size noise, so instead I’ll simply call it minuscule specimen proportion variance.
Aaron Barrett, Nationals: Speaking of brutal ERAs, Barrett and his 4.84 mark have been frustrating, though his nine holds in 22 1/3 innings helps take the sting off of it. After being activated from the 15-day disabled list due to a right biceps strain, I like Barrett in any Holds league. Moving forward I think it’s safe to say he’ll get that under control as his 60.2 percent LOB% is pretty unsustainable, especially given his strikeout rate. Barrett boasts a 12.09 K/9 which translates to a 32.3 percent K%. Backed by a 13.8 percent whiff percentage (a number that would rank in the top-30 for relievers if Barrett had enough innings to qualify), he has shown an improved walk and first strike rate. Before we get too ahead of ourselves, we’re still dealing with a reliever who has faced all of 93 batters thus far, yet I’m still convinced he has the stuff be nail down the eighth and possibly one day the ninth inning. He’s a fastball/slider guy and unless he adds a changeup or another pitch to help nullify left-handed hitters Barrett’s ceiling is bit lower than other guys with his strikeout numbers. Even as a two-pitch guy Barrett is worth grabbing in most leagues if you need rate stats help as he is likely to post an ERA in the low 3’s along with striking out at least a batter per inning.
Good stuff…would you gamble on Moss over Sandoval?
@Peter Nincompoop: Unless you really need the AVG, I’ll take Moss.
@Davidwiers: Should of mentioned it before…don’t need the AVG. It’s a 6×6 scoring format with OBP and SLG in its place. Thanks for the advice.
@Peter Nincompoop: The Duda Abides is also out on waivers…
@Peter Nincompoop: Ah, I’d rather have Duda over Moss.
Ah, the MSPV strikes again! So you’re saying Porcy’s worth a pick off the waiver wire? How do you like him vs. Corbin?
@Scott: Give me Corbin there.
Hm, who do you like Howie Kendrick or Brandon Moss?
@Scott: It really depends on needs. In a vacuum, I like Kendrick more, however if you’re looking for dingers, go with Moss.
would you trade Correa for McCuthen if you had Springer,Buxton and Stanton on dl and i have Desmond on bench to take Correas place,do you see a bounce back at all for Desmond this half,thanks great job
@elvis: If it’s a redraft, yeah, I’d move Correa for Cutch.
I’m looking at several pitcher pickups tonight, Thoughts on which one makes sense:
Stash Medlen
Stash Berrios
Or possible turn around for Niese?
I’m in a 12 team keeper H2H.. looking to win this year.
My Current Pitching:
SP
Corbin
Brian Johnson
Scherzer
Erasmo
T Ross
A Wood
Jungmann
Porcello
RP
W DAvis
G Holland
DL
Jaime Garcia
@Who Dat Ninja!: I’ll take Berrios over Medlen.
Was offered Kemp for Panik in a 12-tm dynasty with standard scoring. Could pick up Alexei or Ahmed off the waiver to fill MI. Slam dunk?
@Dylan:
Id take that.
@Dylan: I’d stick with Panik over Kemp + Ahmed, unless you really need Ahmed to steal some bags for you.
Panik is slightly younger than Ahmed and the latter’s prospect stock has been driven more by his defense and steals than anything with the bat.
Great read on a nonbaseball day – What are you thoughts on Shoemaker having a bounce back second half?
@Twice on Muesday: His swinging strike rate is down a bit compared to past years, though he did get torched by the long ball in the first half. I think he’ll be alright.
Opinions requested…..have one more pick up to make……bench bat…..position doesn’t really matter…..rest of season production does…..OBP league……options are Werth, K Davis, Bour, Beltran, Chris Young, Uribe….Thanks!
@Raindoggg: Werth > Davis > Beltran > Young > Bour > Uribe
k davis probably the fan favorite,i kind of like BOUR
Good write up!….question for a re-building team in a 10tm keeper league:
I’m in last place a year after winning the whole enchilada. Sucks, but at least I’ve accepted my teams fate. I’m trying to focus on my keepers heading into next season. My league settings let me keep 5 guys for as long as I want, and the counting stats are: H, HR, R, RBI, Steals, BB, and Avg….W, L, ERA, QS, Saves, WHIP and Ks. I can realistically keep 5 of these 6 guys:
M. Betts, Donaldson, Correa, Springer, C. Gomez, and Kershaw.
I’m leaning towards dropping either Springer or Gomez. Is this the right evuation l?! Who should I be keeping?
Thanks!
@Andre: I’d drop Gomez. A lot of his numbers have headed south like SB, SB%, ISO and HR/FB%.
Hoping you’re right about Moss, as I own him in my most important league. The R Kelly title is extremely fitting since I’ve been pissed at all three of these guys at various points this year.
I’m trying to determine my optimal roster at OF and DH. Here is what I have to choose from (I’m leaving out the super-obvious starts) – please help me pick 2 guys to SIT from this list, keeping in mind that I think I’d like to have at least one of the SAGNOF guys in there for a SB boost.
HanRam
Pence
Burns
Dyson
Avisail Garcia
Sano
@Skeezix: I’d sit Garcia and Pence.
@Davidwiers: Thanks! Interesting – so you’d go with both Dyson and Burns over Pence? I was thinking I’d start one of those burners, but figure the other might be one of the sit candidates.
With Holliday coming off the DL, who would you drop?…… Holt, DeShields, Avisail or Josh Hamilton?
DeShields if you don’t need SB. Otherwise, Holt.
ESPN is listing Jason Grilli as DTD. Are they expecting the Achilles tendon to regenerate? Is he secretly Wolverine?
Was there ever an original (non-remixed) Ignition? Also, at the beginning, R.Kelly, says hes going to hit us off with a little preview to the song. So is the entire song the preview?