We’re really winding down on draft season now, with official games starting on Thursday. This is the last Tuesday without baseball for some time and I’m giddy about it. We’re sitting at 73 Razzball Commenter Leagues right now (12 more than last year!) and 64 of those have drafted. Only two of our legacy leagues remain undrafted with ECFBL and the ‘Perts League drafting late Wednesday night. Nothing like waiting until the last moment. All of our leagues are full as of now, but if we have any dropouts, make sure you’re following myself (@MattTruss) and/or @Razzball on Twitter. That tends to be the first place I go to blast out league openings. If you didn’t get in on the fun, well, there’s always next year, don’t procrastinate so much next season! Speaking of fun, I had fun going over the new and improved ADP data by taking a look at the ADPs of all Grey’s Sleepers. Even though the ADP Sheet is Razzball-centric it can still give you some interesting tidbits of information. So, let’s do some last minute cramming for those final drafts and see what we can see.
Preseason trading has been in full swing. I tend to like to let my team marinate a little before making any trades, but I’m in so many I had to autodraft a couple this year. That led me to already making a deal in a league where I had no one projected for double digit SBs. Here are the trades we have had so far:
| DATE | LEAGUE | DETAILS |
| 3/7/2019 | RCL #2 | Team Crab1106 traded Ken Giles & Randal Grichuk to Team edg88 for Marco Gonzales, Tommy Pham & Forrest Whitley |
| 3/9/2019 | RCL #10 | Team Docholiday19 traded Jose Altuve & Gary Sanchez to Johnny Utahs for Trea Turner |
| 3/9/2019 | RCL #10 | Team Docholiday19 traded Garrett Hampson to Team Docholiday19 for Mallex Smith |
| 3/12/2019 | RCL #14 | Team Domme62480 traded Bryce Harper to Johnny Utahs for Freddie Freeman |
| 3/12/2019 | RCL #14 | Team Domme62480 traded Noah Syndergaard & Jose Martinez to Johnny Utahs for Shane Bieber & Stephen Piscotty |
| 3/21/2019 | RCL #20 | Team Dealthegame traded George Sprigner to Team Jbmwlgraphs46 for Michael Conforto |
| 3/22/2019 | RCL #30 | Team MattTruss traded Jonathan Schoop & Michael Conforto to Team Tango for Dee Gordon & Max Kepler |
| 3/24/2019 | RCL #35 | Team Marine61 traded Anthony Rizzo to Team ParkBarkley for Nomar Mazara |
Nothing too crazy here except for that Rizzo for Mazara trade. What’s that all about? Yikes.
Had I known there was a world where I could trade Michael Conforto for George Springer, I surely wouldn’t have traded him for Dee Gordon. Yeesh.
DRAFT TRENDS
We new have 64 leagues worth of data to dig through, so no more small sample sizes. This week I thought it would be fun to take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers from his sleeper posts this preseason. Maybe you weren’t around in December and haven’t caught up with all his sleepers. This will not only serve as a handy guide to Grey’s loves, but also let you know where you need to strike to snipe those luscious sleepers. I’m also tossing in a chart with change in ADP data. This will show risers and fallers in ADP from two weeks ago compared to this past week. You’ll notice some sheets in the ADP spreadsheet that note ADP by time frame. Now you can grab the most recent week’s worth of ADP data so you can stay current on the latest trends. Hope you enjoy.
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 59 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO | DIFF |
| Shane Bieber | 131.47 | 93 | 164 | 71 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 144.28 | 105 | 187 | 82 |
| Andrew Heaney | 199.67 | 146 | 300 | 154 |
| Nick Pivetta | 155.38 | 113 | 243 | 130 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 152.92 | 70 | 216 | 146 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 156.64 | 101 | 196 | 95 |
| Carlos Martinez | 146.8 | 113 | 285 | 172 |
| Cedric Mullins | 258.92 | 167 | 300 | 133 |
| Willy Adames | 231.23 | 173 | 300 | 127 |
| Jonathan Villar | 92.66 | 43 | 122 | 79 |
| Max Muncy | 97.5 | 66 | 120 | 54 |
| Tyler Austin | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luke Voit | 164.13 | 49 | 210 | 161 |
| Austin Meadows | 180.52 | 144 | 214 | 70 |
| Daniel Palka | 269.25 | 136 | 300 | 164 |
| Ramon Laureano | 180.95 | 138 | 240 | 102 |
| Michael Conforto | 89.86 | 54 | 117 | 63 |
| Harrison Bader | 158.52 | 121 | 186 | 65 |
I have the sleepers listed in the reverse order that Grey wrote his posts. He gets a mulligan on C-Mart for the injury and also on Tyler Austin for the Twins duping him. I know I’ve personally made pitching staffs of entirely sleeper pitchers. Bieber, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucchesi, Glasnow sounds pretty decent to me after starting with 8-10 straight picks of offense and a closer or two.
Villar and Muncy are the most popular of this bunch, with both checking in above pick 100. Meanwhile, Daniel Palka is both the lowest ranked and the most volatile with him going anywhere from pick 136 to undrafted!
RECENT TRENDS
Here we have a little chart showing some of the changes in ADP from two weeks ago to this past week. The bigger the DIFF number the higher the player is currently being drafted and vice versa.
| PLAYER | ADP (3/12-3/18) | ADP (3/19-3/25) | DIFF |
| Hunter Strickland | 282.13 | 209.8 | 72.33 |
| Alex Colome | 240.93 | 207.2 | 33.73 |
| Ryan Brasier | 297.67 | 265.8 | 31.87 |
| Cedric Mullins | 279.33 | 251.37 | 27.97 |
| Ryon Healy | 299.73 | 272.9 | 26.83 |
| Chris Paddack | 234.07 | 207.43 | 26.63 |
| Andrew Miller | 228.73 | 203.1 | 25.63 |
| Domingo Santana | 178.2 | 155.33 | 22.87 |
| Julio Urias | 272.87 | 251.4 | 21.47 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | 96.4 | 123.87 | -27.47 |
| Willy Adames | 213.67 | 242.43 | -28.77 |
| Joey Wendle | 204.93 | 233.73 | -28.8 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 235.4 | 264.8 | -29.4 |
| Andrew Heaney | 190.53 | 220.03 | -29.5 |
| Dellin Betances | 235.27 | 268.87 | -33.6 |
| Kevin Gausman | 216.13 | 251.87 | -35.73 |
| Carlos Martinez | 128.6 | 164.67 | -36.07 |
| Scooter Gennett | 92.6 | 149 | -56.4 |
| Matt Olson | 92.27 | 170.87 | -78.6 |
| Corey Knebel | 137.2 | 261.57 | -124.37 |
Hunter Strickland is our big winner here. That has a lot to do with the fact that RCL stats are backdated. Therefore, you can grab a crappy closer and get a two save lead on your league! Bonus! Same goes for the helium in Domingo Santana’s ADP. If you were grabbing him anyway, now you grab him a little early and get a head start on HR and RBI.
I blame Paddack’s ADP rise on Ralph. His ADP the first week of drafts was 271! There really is no such thing as a sleeper anymore.
Per usual the bottom of this list features the injured, the suspended, the demoted, the unemployed and Dellin Betances.
THE FIRST ROUND
Finally, here’s a fun chart that shows all of the data from the first round of RCL drafts:
| Slot >>>> | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | TOTAL |
| Mike Trout | 59 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Mookie Betts | 4 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0 | 1 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 64 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 64 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 64 |
| Trea Turner | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 64 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 63 |
| Christian Yelich | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 63 |
| Max Scherzer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 61 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 54 |
| Alex Bregman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 53 |
| Bryce Harper | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| Jacob deGrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| Aaron Judge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| Manny Machado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| Javier Baez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Chris Sale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Jose Altuve | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Trevor Story | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Gary Sanchez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gerrit Cole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
As of right now Razzballers have five unanimous first round picks in Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Trea Turner. J.D. Martinez and Christian Yelich are right there as well with each missing the first round in one league.
In addition to J.D. and Yelich there are three other consensus first rounders; Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor and Alex Bregman.
Yes, you are seeing that correctly…Gary Sanchez has been taken twice in the first round, once first overall and once second overall. I think Gary’s mom is playing the RCLs this year!
Hopefully some of this data helps you out these last couple days of drafting. Check back next week when we’ll have four whole days of real baseball stats to over react to! It will be awesome!
Want to be my Twitter pal? That’s kinda creepy, but you can follow me here: @MattTruss
