Adam Wainwright is done for the year, so the Cardinals will have to dip into their starting pitching depth. At least for now it will be Tim Cooney as a replacement, but the popular opinion is that Marco Gonzales will eventually take that spot in the rotation and run with it. The reason Gonzales may not be an automatic add is that he’s currently dealing with an injury of his own. The southpaw is scheduled to throw again later this week after hitting the minor league disabled list with some shoulder/pectoral discomfort. Grab some BENGAY and let’s take a look at what Marco Gonzales might offer for 2015 fantasy baseball…
| 2015 Prospect List | Ranking |
|---|---|
| Razzball | #2 |
| Baseball America | #1 |
| Baseball Prospectus | #2 |
| Fangraphs | #3 |
Minor League Statistics
| Year | Age | Level | W | L | ERA | G | GS | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 21 | Rk/A+ | 0 | 0 | 2.70 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 23.1 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3.1 | 8.9 |
| 2014 | 22 | A+/AA/AAA | 9 | 5 | 2.43 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 122.0 | 110 | 40 | 33 | 10 | 2.0 | 8.6 |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | 0 | 0 | 4.50 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 16.0 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1.7 | 7.3 |
You can tell from the top three ranking across the board that Gonzales is a highly thought of prospect in the Cardinals’ system. I personally ranked him second just behind Stephen Piscotty and before Alex Reyes in my offseason Top 10. In that blurb I said, “Gonzales should have some fantasy value in 2015, but he’s going to be on the fringe of the rotation. He might get the Carlos Martinez treatment – bouncing between the majors and minors, starting in Triple-A while getting spot-starts or relief appearances in the bigs.” That opportunity has now presented itself, so it’s a matter of Gonzales getting healthy so he can take advantage.
The 23-year-old left-hander has shown good control and a knack for getting strikeouts in the minors, with an arsenal featuring a double-plus changeup that helps him to get those whiffs. In 2014, Gonzales made it all the way to the bigs and posted a 4.15 ERA in five games started – striking out 31 batters in 34.2 innings pitched. While he gave up too many walks in that brief stint (5.5 BB/9) his minor league walk rates don’t point to a pitcher with below average control. He’s not strictly a two-pitch pitcher (he also throws an average slider and curve) but the changeup is obviously his best weapon and so far the stats support the scouting grade. He relied on his change in the bigs – throwing it 26% of the time – and had success with it against major league hitters. While it’s a small sample, batters who swung at his changeup whiffed nearly half the time (46%). For comparison’s sake, that’s about the same rate that Cole Hamels got with his changeup last season and ranked Gonzales fourth in the majors among players with at least 100 pitches worth of data.
Is it enough to be a fantasy contributor this season and follow in the footsteps of Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez? Possibly. One of the words you see in a lot of his scouting reports from last season is “predictable” – which can be a very bad thing when you’re facing big league hitters. The Cards have a good track record with developing pitching, however, so one would think that they’re seeing the same issues and addressing them.
What’s the Move?
If you’re in a dynasty or keeper format, Gonzales should be gone. Long term, his ceiling is a #3 starter, so getting an extended look at him this year in the rotation would be pretty exciting for his owners. In 14-team redrafts or deeper, I’d go ahead and add him to my bench. In 12-team leagues or shallower with no obvious drop or slot to fill, I’d play wait-and-see with Cooney’s starts and Gonzales’ injury. It’s not a lock that Gonzales gets the gig and you want to be getting the most from your bench.
