The Arizona Fall League’s regular season ended this week. They’ll have a home run derby today before heading on to post-season play, so this seems like a nice time to sift through some outcomes to see if we can find some home runs of our own.
Guardians SS Welbyn Francisca (20, AA) hit a career-high 19 home runs in 79 games during the regular season and kept the good times rolling in the fall league, slashing .419/.482/.716 with four home runs and six stolen bases in 16 games. A switch-hitter listed at 6’0” 184 pounds, Francisca grew into some strength last off-season and might do the same again this winter. It’s a trademark of this organization, which has a track record of helping hit-tool kids like this one add muscle across time while retaining the twitch that could make them special.
Cardinals OF Tai Peete (21, AA) came to St. Louis from Seattle in the Brendan Donovan trade of February 2026 after a difficult 2025 season that saw Peete hit .217 and lose 25 pounds due to illness. He kept playing anyway, suiting up for 125 games as a 19-year-old in High-A. 2026 went better when he was on the field. He hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.359/.549 but played just 66 games due to a concussion and another illness. If his fall outcomes are any indicator, St. Louis crushed it when they bought the dip on Peete. He played a solid centerfield and stole a preposterous 20 bases in 18 games while slashing .351/.438/.676 with three home runs. I try not to oversell AFL outcomes, but when they fold into a tidy narrative like this one, I don’t mind throwing an up arrow or two on a possible breakout.
Reds RHP Luke Holman (24, A) was a second-round pick out of LSU in the 2024 draft, but he’s only pitched 15.2 professional innings across two seasons due to an elbow issue that required Tommy John surgery early in 2025. A breaking ball specialist at 6’4” 201 pounds, a healthy Holman proved too much for AFL hitters. In 13 innings spread across five outings, he allowed one run and struck out 20 hitters, recording a 0.69 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Off-speed command can be kind of a Rainbow Road for pitching prospects to speed through the minor leagues, and I’m expecting a multi-level climb for Holman in 2027.
I think we’re going to see White Sox OF Caleb Bonemer (21, AA) reach the majors in 2027. That’s not a bold prediction, just a conclusion I came to this week. Well, I guess it is bold in the sense that we might not even have a major league season, but I doubt that. Rich people like money more than anyone, and a lockout fucks with the money. Anywho, Bonemer hit 37 home runs and stole 17 bases in 132 games across two levels last year. He even played a smidge better in Double-A than he had in High-A, lowering his strikeout rate by 3.9 percent and adding 23 points to his batting average. That trend continued in the fall league, where he cut his strikeout rate another four percent while hitting three home runs and slashing .286/.364/.633. Chicago has a lot of position players to consider, but Bonemer’s got an outside shot to break camp with the big club.
The 33rd overall pick in 2024, Twins 2B Kyle DeBarge (23, AA) looked like a high-floor, hit-tool type coming out of Louisiana Lafayette, but he’s swung and missed a bit a more than expected as a professional and posted a paltry 76 wRC+ in 120 Double-A games in 2026. At 5’9” 175 pounds without ferocious twitch, he might be precisely the kind of prospect whose barrels benefit most from the Arizona air, but that doesn’t mean I’m ignoring his .347/.473/.625 slash line or his four home runs and eight stolen bases in 20 games. I’ll still give him a little up-arrow in mind, but I wouldn’t put him in the same group as Peete in the sense that this small sample could signal a fresh-snow future.
Thanks for reading!
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