I try to take a fairly simplistic view of the draft. My mind resists at times because the Major League Baseball Draft is an exercise in antitrust-exemption hyper-capitalism run amok, spotlighting primarily the lucky few blessed with generational gifts of wealth and circumstance along with their considerable physical skills. It’s a barefaced look at how structures that appear to be egalitarian in their theoretical bones are anything but in practice.
Whoops, I did it again. Got lost in the games. Keep It Simple, Guy.
Reset: it’s about the organizations as much as it is about the players. You’ll see Jackson Holliday third here even though I like Elijah Green more as a player because I think the Orioles are doing well when it comes to communicating with their young players and aiding their development. No knock on the Nats, who have developed some hitters of their own, but Elijah Green brings some swing-and-miss risk along with the big power and elite speed, and I can’t remember this team developing someone with that specific hang-up. Plus, I don’t know . . . something about the whole organization feels bad right now. Can’t put my finger on it. Oh yeah, they’re doing this weird dance with Juan Soto a year after giving Trea Turner to the Dodgers to offload Max Scherzer’s contract. Their minor league system is weak, partly because they insisted on major-league-ready players in return for Turner and Scherzer. Their 2021 first round pick Brady House, also a high school hitter, has not played particularly well this year (0 HR, 2 BB, 31 K in his last 20 games before landing on the IL).
I also like to take my time on stuff like this. Would prefer to see how these guys adapt to the pro game before ranking them for fantasy purposes, but I know some people have drafts that begin immediately after the MLB draft ends, so I burned the midnight oil for the past few weeks in hopes of replicating my best successes from FYPD lists of summers past like CJ Abrams, Corbin Carroll and James Wood.
1. Diamondbacks OF Druw Jones (pick 1.2)
Pretty clear consensus at the moment. If you haven’t checked his dad’s baseball reference page, I have to recommend it (click here to see the madness).
He fell off so early in his thirties that I think we (I) forget how dominant he was in his early twenties.
Pretty simplistic to just comp him to his dad and move along, but simple can be good. Arizona is on a roll with early hitter picks, and Jones brings all five tools to the job site, and not the normal tools that are just good enough to do the job. This is heavy machinery and sets Jones up to be top ten overall prospect as early as this winter.
Between Jones and Seiya Suzuki (if Suzuki is available in your FYPD), I’d struggle to decide. Would have a lot to do w league structure and probably how each performs going forward. Today, I’m taking Jones in medium-shallow true dynasty (keep everyone) leagues. Probably Suzuki in setups where at bats are tough to come by, especially if I’m a contender.
2. Pirates SS Termarr Johnson (pick 1.4)
Ears perk up when you hear phrases like “best high school hitter in decades” from guys who’ve been scouting hitters for decades. Wonderful pick for Pittsburgh and for your dynasty teams. That park is perfect for lefties who can pull a homer and-or go oppo for a double or a triple in that wicked gap they have in left center. Plus they’ll have some offense in place by the time he gets there. Theoretically.
3. Orioles SS Jackson Holliday (pick 1.1)
Son of All-Star Outfielder Matt Holliday, Jackson is a left-handed hitter and right handed thrower listed at 6’1” 175 lbs. He could play a 12-year-old in Hollywood and nobody would blink. Have I mentioned how much I love Baltimore tailoring their roster to their home ballpark? They might have nine lefties in the lineup on a given night by 2024. Gonna work well in New York, too. Not that Holliday was picked just because he’s left handed. He’s long been in the team photo for the Top 5 of this year’s class and recently slid nearer to the center of the frame as the body seems to be syncing up with the swing the plate discipline. As I mentioned in the intro, this Orioles front office knows how to identify and develop a gifted hitter.
4. Nationals OF Elijah Green (1.4)
He’s the son of Steelers TE Eric Green, a man ahead of his time as an extra offensive lineman who could get down the seam and make a play over a defender a la Rob Gronkowski. Elijah is a similarly unique athlete who happens to be much faster than his father. Might’ve been a first round pick as a high school sophomore if such leaps were allowed. The pluses are his intense physicality and Asgardian power and speed. Easy case to take him 2nd in this class if that’s your jam and you don’t mind a little swing-and-miss.
5. Marlins 3B OF Jacob Berry (1.6)
A switch-hitter who’s always produced, Jacob Berry is just what the doctor ordered for Miami, who has been enamored with extreme tool sets over the past several seasons and is finally taking a kid who’s a good hitter first and whatever else later. He’s listed at third here, and that’s where Miami might have him begin his career, but he’s probably a 1B/LF/DH who’ll need a lot of defensive reps to blend in with major league defenders.
6. Royals OF Gavin Cross (1.9)
I’ve talked a lot about successful organizations in this piece, so it would be foolish to ignore what the Royals have been doing under hitting coordinator Drew Saylor. Makes perfect sense they’d draft the 6’3” 210 lb Gavin Cross in the nine spot after he posted 17 HR and 12 SB in 57 games this season at Virginia Tech, slashing .328/.411/.660 with 41 strikeouts and 30 walks. He’s clearly got an idea of the strike zone, and Kansas City has been on a hot streak selecting college hitters of late.
Not many options for those seeking a college bat with speed who could cruise through the minors quickly enough to help you sometime soon in the standings. As a bonus, the Angels don’t have anyone blocking anything on the middle infield, with the possible exception of Luis Rengifo, who I’ve been adding and trading for across my leagues because I believe in his steps forward this season. One downside is Neto’s oversized leg kick, something he ditches with two strikes in favor of a contact-oriented approach. The big front leg isn’t necessarily bad, and I like that he’s got a two-strike approach, but he might need some adept coaching along the way in making the leap from Campbell and the Big South Conference. He’s hit well in wooden bat leagues against college arms, which assuages some of the small school concerns.
8. Guardians OF Chase DeLauter (1.16)
Premium athlete who went a little DeLauter than we might’ve expected a few months ago, when public-facing sites lauded him as top of the class. Cleveland’s patience with Will Benson provides a peak at how the Guardians will handle DeLauter if his hit tool troubles from early this season carry over to the pros. I don’t think they will. He was a young person dealing with a lot of hype facing some of the best pitchers he’d ever seen, and every one of them had him circled in the James Madison lineup. Plus he bounced back in a big way, slashing .437/.576/.828 with eight home runs and ten stolen bases in 28 games.
9. Mets C Kevin Parada (1.11)
Set the Georgia Tech record with 26 home runs this year and even kicked in 11 stolen bases. He’ll turn 21 next month and felt like a real win for the Mets at the 11 spot after the club botched its Kumar Rocker maneuver last season. Jury’s out on whether he can catch or not, and frankly I wouldn’t bother, at least not in an everyday capacity. I’d maybe have him catch once or twice a week then play outfield and first base in between in case his bat looks ready enough to let him race to the majors. In 60 games this season, Parada struck out 32 times and drew 30 walks.
10. Reds 3B Cam Collier (1.18)
He’s one of one among this class in terms of the path he’s blazed to get to this point, graduating high school early to play in a wooden bat college league then pushing himself again to play in the Cape Cod League against players 3.4 years his senior on average.
Son of major leaguer Lou Collier, Cam is listed at 6’2” 210 lbs at 17-years-old and features plus power and hit from the left side. The Cubs low key ruined my night when they passed on him at the seven spot to take a college pitcher. No offense to Cade Horton, but the Cubs don’t have anywhere near the positional prospect depth people seem to think they do, and the depth they do have is in the lower minors, which is worlds away from being a big league building block, which is how I feel about Collier today.
11. Phillies OF Justin Crawford (1.17)
Son of Carl Crawford, speedster of the Rays, Red Sox and Dodgers. I’ve heard some people down on the hit tool, but I think they might forget that Carl Crawford was a career .290 hitter despite a long downward arc impacted by injuries. Again, too simplistic to say “just look at his dad” and move along, but that’s also kind of exactly what every team seems to be doing, so . . . look at his dad! He was fast! Justin’s fast, too! And his swing is a little smoother than his dad’s. Carl Crawford stole 45 or more bases in seven different seasons. That would work. I don’t love the Phillies as an organization for developing hitters, so it’s nice that Crawford has extra familial help available to him.
12. Astros OF Drew Gilbert (1.28)
A lot of public facing outlets have been operating as if they know better than Houston about prospects, and that hasn’t typically proven true as the Astros unveil their assembly line of functional major league players. Gilbert might have lost some perceived value with a hissy fit that got him ejected and suspended during this year’s postseason, but I’d be lying if I said I cared. He might get ump showed a bit early in his career, but he’ll learn you can’t even look at those weirdos. Power corrupts, especially tenuous power. Gilbert can barrel up a variety of pitches in a variety of places, runs with attentiveness, aggression and speed, and he controls the strike zone, which is what got him ejected: his confidence in his ability to pick up spin and discern strikes from balls. He was the best player on the best team in college baseball for most of 2022. Sign me up for the discount he’ll bring on dynasty draft day as long as he doesn’t obliterate the minor leagues the rest of this season.
13. Twins SS Brooks Lee (1.8)
Lee will be higher on a lot of lists, and I’ve got no qualms with that. He fits well into this outstanding org for hitter development in that doesn’t strike out much (less than 10 percent pretty much his whole life) and has solid defensive hands and actions even as his athleticism and throwing arm aren’t going to wow anybody. Teams like what they like, and it all added up when Minnesota landed Lee. The downsides are a lack of speed and a plethora of options on the big league roster.
14. Tigers SS Peyton Graham (2.51)
I can’t help but wish this kid had landed elsewhere. He was among my favorite players heading into draft season. Listed at 6’3” 185 lbs, Graham looks skinnier than that partly because I think he’s built from rebar like a young Byron Buxton, delivering strength well beyond what your eyes would guess from afar. He even moves a little differently than most players, jolting around the field with a twitchy-fast smoothness of controlled movements that look like they might spill out of control at any given moment. He’s played third, shortstop, second and outfield, and I think he could hang just about anywhere on the diamond. On offense, Graham become the first D1 player in almost 20 years (2004) to hit 20 homers and steal 30 bases
15. Tigers 2B Jace Jung (1.12)
I don’t know why it’s funny to me that his brother is named “Josh” and he wound up with “Jace.”
“Hi, I’m Phil and this is my brother Fajita.”
“I’m Matt and this is my brother Magellan.”
I better stop now because I feel like I’m just getting warmed up here.
Jung was projected to go a little higher when the sorting hat began this season’s song, but he lacks the perceived upside of the more athletic types around him. Jung’s calling cards are hitting bombs and walking more than he strikes out, which he’s done every year of his college career. He’s not much of a defender, but he’s a left-handed hitter who’d be the strong side of a platoon even if his glove doesn’t get him in the lineup on an everyday basis. His baseline skill set and swing along with his brother’s early success give me hope. His organization gives me pause.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Hi Itch, curious if there are no international signees on this list because they wouldn’t crack the top 15, or because there isn’t enough info and clarity out there yet with the signing date not until January. Thanks!
Hi, Prawn Lord,
Yeah I just wanted to get this out for the dynasty drafters who begin the day the after the MLB draft. I was thinking the incoming international class would be ineligible because they aren’t with a team, but maybe that’s not the case. Certainly not always the case, anyway. I should have said something in the piece about who was eligible here. I’ll fold the international class for the next version, which will run deeper than 15.
Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying
Dumping this year.
NL Keeper $260 high inflation where MiLB salary STAY FROZEN till I activate. I put 2023 salary in for these MLB players. Only activated MLB players get a $5 raise/yr.
The lower I go in the 2022 standings the higher I pick in the leftovers after the MLB rostered auction. (there are always one or two unclaimed MiLB gems that were not carryovers or high potential bench players.)
– I Get O Cruz 7 P Crow-Armstrong 2 and B Miller 5
I give up possible AL player Soto 22 who will be lost forever, (for nothing if I don’t trade him and what if he goes to the AL. ..Yankees?
That would be devastating fer sure.
Hold or make the offer
Tough spot. I’d hold Soto, but that’s based on what I can live with. I’m okay losing him via trade like that, at least compared to selling him for relative unknowns.
Hey Itch, curious for your feedback. We do a 3-round prospect draft every year (last night). Anyone with any MLB appearances are ineligible, and a few other big names were already taken last year (i.e. I already have Carroll). I was picking 8th and most of the bats I wanted were gone by then (Walker, Jung, Henderson, Tovar, Vargas). Due to our keeper rules on prospects, I also tend to fade anyone not likely to debut later than the following year. Here is what I ended up with:
I normally hate picking pitchers in the first round because of their volatility and health risks, but I felt like I couldn’t pass up Perez with those bats gone. What do you think?
Looks like a great haul to me!
Eury is a unicorn.
Or Unicron, if you’re hip to 1987’s Transformers: The Movie.
I don’t think we’ll see Lawlar next year, but he’s worth the wait!
This is you telling us that you dont like to draft Arms not including a single one in this top 15 list?
How could you rank pitchers from this 2022 draft?
Yeah I figure it’s clearer to rank pitchers in accordance with how I see the game board than to play the perceived value game at this juncture. For what it’s Wuertz, it’s often that last sprinkle of perceived value that keeps pitchers in my rankings at all. My own dynasty squad splits in the minors are often 80/20 or more in terms of hitters v pitchers, and the pitchers are typically Max Castillo, JP Sears types I add just as they make the majors and then hold to see how they handle the jump in difficulty.
I know some leagues put a premium on arms, and you could do much worse than Dylan Lesko from this class. Just take him and wait. He’ll be at the top for me.
Then I’d rank Cade Horton on the chance that he is what he showed in the College World Series.
Kumar Rocker is in the Horton tier for me until I see something to make me slide him down.
Brock Porter fourth.
After that, I’d rather just pick up a Dahian Santos or Tink Hence type. Probably too late on Hence in most league, but I did just add him in a competitive 15-teamer a couple weeks back.
I’ll round out the top five with the Cardinals lefty, Cooper Hjerpe.
Itch my man!
Chilling at Hilton Head with the fam. Hope you’re doing well!
Spencer Jones!!! Looks like a Judge clone with a better hit tool coming out of school. I like him a lot. Thoughts?
And my Braves continue to dumbfound during the draft. Only so many times the “hurt high upside” pitcher can work, no?
And Termarr is sexy.
Sounds like a good time, Chhhhh! Thanks! Hope you’re having a blast!
Jones was 16th here. Just missed final cut, actually, but there’s so many unknowns I went with a steadier bat in Jung. One thing’s certain, Jones landed in a good org for his skill set.
Not many other kinds of pitchers to take in this class, but yeah it’s never fun to watch your team walk away with that given the recent history of hitters v pitchers as prospects.
Termarr’s interview at the draft was so good. Real roller coaster.
I am personally high on Estuery Ruiz, his on-base skills and steal potential could be a game changers. At the same time his value is pretty high at the moment. Is he a sell high in dynasty? I know you mentioned a few weeks back you just wouldn’t sell him to sell him. What kind of current MLB and/or prospect package could I expect back for him?
I am in a salary league H2H (6×7) OPS< K/9 league. I picked him up on waivers, so he is already an “expensive” prospect ($10 as opposed to $5 or less if he was drafted).
I’d be open to selling him in that format where the gold chips are the $1-3 auction finds.
Can’t hurt to put him on the block and see what shakes out.
Mostly depends on who’s selling what in that league and what you want, I think. Could check the block and start sending 2-for-1’s with Ruiz and something that fits.
I suspect you could get a #2 type pitcher basically straight up, and those seem like they’d valuable in that league. Might be selling low on Ruiz.
In general, I’d just put him on the block and move slowly. If nobody makes an offer, you know it’s probably not worth your time and hustle to shop him. If he gets hot, you can make another post reminding the league he’s on the block. If not, it sort of solves itself and you wait for a surge.
Do you think trading Ruiz for something like kelenic and Lawler is reasonable? Is that what you’d aim for?
(12 team 5×5 obp – I love Ruiz’ speed too but am rebuilding so I can wait on talent…)
Michigan native here. Thanks for telling me what I already know. The Tigers organization is a gongshow thanks to a GM that doesn’t know how to put together a team.
Tough scene there, yeah, but I still think the arrow is pointing up. Would help a lot to get a new GM, I agree. No complaints about the talent they landed on day one though.
And they’re exactly what the organization needs: infielders who could race to the majors.
I think the Rony Garcia thing might work out, too, for what it’s worth.
Bullpen has been nice, too. Good sign of things to come.
Itch, What Suzuki are you referring to?
Good call, I should add that in there.
likely the rare leagues where s.suzuki, since he signed later in the preseason might not have been obtainable till when these same just drafted in real life guys are first obtainable. s.suzuki
Was looking forward to this! Just a general question about the top of this draft…I know this is hard to project without any time at the professional level yet, but I’m interested to hear where you project the following players to slot into the current top prospects list?
Not asking necessarily for specific overall rank, just kind of a range, like top 10, top 25, top 50, etc.
Jones = top 25ish
Johnson = comfortably inside top 50
Holliday and Green inside top 100
Great stuff as always Itch. Who do you prefer long term, M. Gore or B. Miller? Thanks and really appreciate your work.
I’ll take Gore. Tough stretch here but he’s come back from those before.
Thanks Itch……what are your quick thoughts on the Braves draft? Also who would you prefer long term, M. Gore or B. Miller? Appreciate your work.
a. Sorry missed two cycles there. My bad. But I couldn’t miss a third consecutive cycle, right? Hope you’re good, man.
b. Would you add Druw over any of these MiLB players on my keep forever roster?
I’m thinking Walston but maybe Hoffmann too could be expendable.
c. How high are you on Outman? Would you add him over any of the remaining 15 above in ‘b’?
d. George Carlin quote of the day for July 20, 2022
‘If you really want to know how to help your children, leave them alone!’
Always good to see you(r words)!
b. Not loving Hoffmann to KC like I loved him in ATL. He’s the drop for me and yes, gotta get Druw.
c. I’d add Outman over Walston, I think.
Would you rerank any of the top 5 in an obp league vs avg league?
I know this is pobably impossible to answer but what kind of k rate are you expecting from green when you say swing and miss? Maybe I should rephrase the question and ask what kind of k rate threshold do you categorize as “swing and miss”? Thanks
I’d leave them how they are but wouldn’t fault anyone for sliding Berry, Cross and Parada up their list.
Kinda depends on age and level. I try not to apply blanket cutoffs, but anything above 30 percent against low level pitching is a pretty big red flag.