I’m not often surprised by the machinations of major league baseball teams because the road map is pretty well defined in stages by contracts and developmental norms, and it’s part of my job to know the lay of the land.
Atlanta OF Michael Harris II being promoted from AA on Saturday surprised me.
Can be underrated fun, surprises, especially in a baseball sense. And then I realize I should have seen it coming, so the surprise loses some sheen in the fog of negative self-talk, but it’s exciting nonetheless!
Harris earned this jump by playing well every step of the way, but also because Atlanta has run out of center fielders. Adam Duvall is slugging .274. Ronald Acuña Jr. isn’t quite healed enough to be an everyday defender. Guillermo Heredia is striking out 48.8 percent of the time. Travis Demeritte wasn’t playing center anyway but was demoted to make space for Harris after Demeritte fell into a 1-for-34 slump.
I mention all of this not to diminish Harris’ achievement but to highlight his opportunity. A plus contact hitter with dynamic hand-eye coordination, the 21-year-old, 6’0” 195 lb left-hander has always passed the eye test with flying colors on offense and was slashing .305/.372/.506 with five home runs and 11 stolen bases in 43 games at AA, striking out 19.9 percent of the time and drawing an 8.7 percent walk rate.
I think we can track way back to the Cristian Pache (Matt Olson) trade to see the footprints leading to this transaction. The club must think Harris’ defense has progressed enough to hand him the keys to their big league outfield. He’s a must-add where you can fit him. I’m about 60/40 that his swing-happy approach combined with the big-league heavy balls will prove too big a challenge for his first few hundred plate appearances, but stranger things have happened.
Cleveland OF Oscar Gonzalez has an even more swing-intensive approach, walking just 3.3 percent of the time and posting a .308 on base percentage in 41 AAA games this year. Not ideal. On the other hand, he minimizes strikeouts (14.3%) and gets to his above average power in games. Could start hot. Gonna be streaky.
Detroit OF Kerry Carpenter (AA, 24 years old) has always hit, has 13 HR already this year. 11 HR in his last 19 games, slashing .466/.512/.1014 with a 23.2% strikeout rate over that stretch. He’s a 6’2” 220 lb left-handed hitter with double-plus power in an organization that desperately needs legitimate position-player prospects.
Kansas City OF Nick Pratto (AAA, 23 yo) is adapting well to left field and heating up at the dish, slugging .583 with a .457 on base percentage in seven games. Could be up next week. Could be in AAA until September, given the Royals roster construction and apparent lack of hurry with most of their prospects.
Washington OF Joey Meneses (AAA, 30 yo) missed 2019 after making a long, steady climb up the minors, adding power while hitting for average. He had a couple dud seasons upon reaching High-A and again in his first crack at Double-A but followed those up with strong rebound campaigns. This season, he’s slashing .326/.366/.581 with 11 home runs in 43 games, which is pretty similar to his 2018 line at the same level for Philadelphia, when he hit 23 bombs in 130 games and slashed .311/.360/.510 while striking out 20.5 percent of the time. All this history indicates a guy who pretty much always been a good hitter but got snake bitten by org math and his own age and probably some scouts’ eyes who think he can’t keep up with major league velocity and/or spin, which might well be true, but if he gets on the field in Washington, I’m just going to pick him up and see what happens.
Tampa IF Jonathan Aranda (AAA, 24 yo) feels like the kind of guy who’s unlikely to struggle much with the leap to facing major league spin. The only issue is the Rays value defense so highly that Aranda might struggle to get a real chance. He’s not a bad defender, necessarily, but this team runs out a lineup full of elite gloves on a nightly basis, and it’s not by accident.
Pittsburgh 2B Ji-hwan Bae (AAA, 22 yo) has been sizzling for a month, slashing .344/.445/.611 with four home runs and six stolen bases in 24 games since April 27. He’s also posted a 1.38 BB/K rate over that stretch: 16.4% BB, 11.8% K. I don’t know what to expect from the Pirates. That’s part of life on the open seas. They might double-cross and demote a dude two days after bringing him aboard. Probably time to stow Bae away anyway. His 40-steal speed with plus plate and contact skills is too shiny a treasure to ignore.
Colorado C Brian Serven was walking more (16.7%) than he was striking out (15.6%) at AAA this year while slashing .273/.406/.506 with five home runs in 23 games, so his early success with the Rockies is not without precedent. The 6’0” 207 pounder was a 5th round pick back in 2016 after a productive three-year career with Arizona State. He might push Elias Diaz for the full-time gig if he maintains his approach, but he wouldn’t have to win out over Diaz to produce value in most dynasty leagues. I’ve already added Serven in 15, 20, and 30 team formats. Won’t hesitate to drop him if I see another angle I’d rather play, but it’s rare for me to scoop a guy up across that wide a variety of set-ups at the same time, for what it’s Wuertz.
Washington LHP Matt Cronin (AAA, 24 yo) was dominant in repeating the AA level this season, throwing 16.1 scoreless innings with a 25.4 percent K-BB rate and a 0.73 WHIP. The Nationals could use him in the back end of a weak bullpen right now, but he’ll likely spend a month or more in AAA.
Texas OF Alejandro Osuna (A, 19 yo) is tearing it up against older competitors, slashing .331/.421/.508 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 36 games. Makes for a nice low-minors lottery ticket for ground-floor investors.
Thanks for reading!
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