First reaction to the Dodgers trading AJ Pollock for Craig Kimbrel was justifiably noisy in the FantasyVerse. People had been touting Kimbrel and drafting him as a closer for months upon months and only recently began to count how many chickens they’d pre-counted as eggs in the White Sox arm barn. Now Kimibrel was officially a Final Boss on the winningest team in baseball and people wanted to crow, which I tend to think is for the birds.
Next second, the internet turned to watch as all the Blake Treinen shares went poof into a fine powder. The phantom limb pains of those who’d just lost 30 saves could be felt everywhere around us.
A few internet moments later, Gavin Lux sprinted into the spotlight, charging the Twitter stage like Will Smith to smack the shit out of all the haters who’d buried him during draft season. Like me. Only I’ve been burying Lux on lists since way back when he was just a hotshot kid in California, so I saw him coming and ducked out of there. My attention was elsewhere anyway.
I tea-leafed this move as Los Angeles rolling out the red carpet for Edwin Rios, who leads the team with three home runs this spring, hitting .438 (7-16) with four walks and just one strikeout. He’s recovered well from the surgery that cost him 2021 and made himself an option at third base, first base and designated hitter. Justin Turner is 37 years old. Cody Bellinger has struggled for years. Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux can both cover center or shortstop. What I mean to say is nobody has to get hurt for Rios to play a lot. How many home runs do you think he could hit with ~400 plate appearances, mostly against right handed pitchers? The raw math has him around 15.3 PA per HR in his career, meaning he’d get 26.7 HR with 400 plate appearances. I’ll take the over if he gets the opportunity and was thrilled to land him at pick 488 in the 20-team Highlander Dynasty Invitational.
Nothing is official, but I think Pittsburgh SS Diego Castillo has claimed a spot for himself in the opening day lineup, showcasing opposite field power and a plus approach, punctuated by five home runs and a 1.367 OPS. Gotta be careful when you’re on top. That’s when the Diego comes for you. If Castillo plays and stays hot, that could bump Oneil Cruz to left field or even (gasp) give the club a reason to delay the big man’s arrival. As always (yarrr), the Pirates could hornswaggle us all and continue to start Kevin Newman.
Arizona DH Seth Beer has been playing some first base and is hitting .429 with one home run in 21 spring at bats. Shoulder seems to have recovered after he injured it to finalize his 2021. Maybe the snakes have something in mind that I’m missing, but I’ve written Beer onto my shopping list and drafted him at 393 overall in the Highlander Dynasty Invitational.
The Reds already announced one big rookie breaking camp in RHP Hunter Greene, but the whisper mill suggests LHP Nick Lodolo is next. Wanna change the narrative around your franchise? Bring your guys up when they’re ready. Pretty simple stuff. You don’t even have to spend money these days. Fans are conditioned to reward teams for their thriftiest tactics, but they still want to see the Rookies right away, and I commend the Reds for their off-season moves. I liked the Suarez contract extension when they made it. That didn’t work out. They found a way to move on. Tyler Naquin is a good hitter, and now he’ll be out there every day. Seven years or so of Brandon Williamson might be well worth a couple Jesse Winker seasons, and this is how our brains work now. Good for them for moving that dead Suarez money. The grass is a little greener in Cincinnati today.
The Angels dumped Justin Upton, which works well for OF Brandon Marsh and perhaps even Jose Rojas and 2B Michael Stefanic. They’ll eat about 28 million bucks just to wave goodbye, and we might wind up with a DH elsewhere suddenly blocked by a free Upton pick-up.
Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo will open his third major league season as the starting shortstop now that Nick Ahmed is out. Perdomo could Wally Pipp this situation with a couple good weeks, and he probably should, given Arizona’s place on the win curve.
I just saw SS Nico Hoerner range deep into the hole and make a long jump-throw across the diamond to rob a hit, so I think his shoulder is feeling okay. Side note that’s not really a side note: this team is not good and should play Hoerner over Andrelton Simmons. They can dress it up with a Suzuki signing here and a Miley/Simmons/Villar poo poo platter, but you just can’t start Jason Heyward in centerfield and call yourself a contender. Today (Saturday) a ball bounced right off his glove. Regular line drive. Just in and out. I think he’ll be fine there, defensively, but holy cow is he lost in the batter’s box. Ildemaro Vargas and Frank Schwindel are over .300. Everyone else is under .200 in this lineup. Buy Clint Frazier and Rafael Ortega. I can’t see why they’d take either guy out of the lineup. Schwindel, too, is a real hiter. I don’t know if he’s gonna hit .300 forever, but he’s a tough out with good power, and I’ll bet he’s going to be a big leaguer for the next half decade or so.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
Hey Itch, I’m in a league that has a prospect element, so love your articles! We did our deep draft on the weekend, and we have a specific spot to start a rookie hitter. And because it was in person and we were many beers in, I took a flyer on Cooper Hummel with my last pick because it sounds like he will make the team, and also has C eligibility (as well as being a rookie).
Is he someone I should just drop ASAP, or is there a chance he could be even a little useful? He actually happens to be my backup catcher (we start two, I have Stephenson and Murphy).
Hi, Milarky,
Sharp snag there on Hummel.
I just added him to an NL Only team and am eager to see where it goes. I’d hold him.
Saw you grab Hummel in CBS, I put in a bid on him in Tout
Worth a twirl with that Catcher eligibility for sure.
Interesting case in that his athleticism blossomed when he stopped catching (mostly), and now that he’s caught the attention of Arizona’s decision makers as an outfielder, they want him to catch again.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
Do they know things?
What do they know?
Let’s find out.
Haha, I like how you’re thinking…We’ll see tho, I just have a bid, haven’t got him yet
Thanks Itch!
What’s up Itch?
Towards the end of my dynasty draft right now, and would like to add Vaughn Grissom to my squad. After promoting Oneil Cruz, I do not really have anyone to promote from my minors squad, as the guys closes to the majors are probably Shea Langeliers (it’s a 2 catcher league) and Michael Toglia. Out of the following guys on my MiLB roster, who is the cut?
Elijah Tatis
Matt Tabor
Jhon Torres
Already swooped Roderick Arias and Oscar Colas earlier in the draft, would you rather have Christhian Vaquero, Dyan Jorge, or Ryan Reckley than any of these guys?
Hey, TualatinTwoStep!
Busy times, my friend, but it’s good busy. What’s up with you?
I’m okay to drop Tatis or Torres for now, probably in reverse order of that just for name juice.
I would take Vaquero and Reckley over the other Tatis and Tabor, too.
Awesome, thanks Itch, appreciate you man!
Reckley is getting some Jazz Chisholm comps, as a Giants fan, this excites me.
Kevin Smith or Edwin Rios?
Smith. Good question, helps build some contexts for both. Very close, could quickly tilt Rios if he’s in the lineup 4 or 5 days a week.
Itch, my DUDE!!!
So, quick question. I’m looking for upside here….I have an opportunity to add one of the following:
1. MJ Melendez
2. Eury Perez
3. Andy Pages
4. Dustin Harris
I’m actually leanding Pages. What do you think? I’m so scared of pitchers (TINSTAAPP and all), but Eury looks dreamy. Melendez has the pop and will probably be playing soon. Pages has light-tower pop and the Dodgers just seem to get the most out of their prospects. Harris, based on your recommendations, seem legit as well.
Who you got? Thanks, man!
What up Chhhhh!?
Eury for pure topside imo.
Melendez in leagues with catching depth of 20+ started or so.
Thanks man!!!
Hi Itch !
Miguel Vargas 5
Henry Davis 5
Lodolo 3
Eury Perez 3
Elly DeLacruz 5
————
They stay at that salary for another year after MLB activation then $5/year
Who’s your top 3 please?
NL 260 league.
Hi Luvdarooks!
Nice concise context there, well written!
I’ll take Vargas, Eury and Lodolo. My bet is you can get Elly back. If you don’t think that’s true for your league, I’d just hold him and throw Lodolo back.
Thanks for all the great pre-season write-ups Itch! I was able to score Rios in my NL-Only H2H 5×5(OBP) for $4 in a league made up of mostly Dodger Homers (me included). I was thinking exactly what you wrote about along with both Raley and Beaty gone as well. I can’t imagine him not getting 400+ ABs this season and connecting for 20+ HRs.
Oneil Cruz ended up going for $16, which was far beyond what I had at the time. Unfortunately it’s because I had already bought Josh Rojas for $12, and we know how that turned out (effing obliques).
I also snagged Hunter Greene as well for $10. He’s my number 4 behind Alcantara, Webb, and Stroman. I have Cobb, Lauer, and Josiah Gray also. I’m Hoping he gets me 120 innings, but more importantly that he sets in as a strong keeper for next year.
FYI, the link you put in for Diego Castillo goes to Seattle’s Castillo.
Looking forward to your articles throughout this year.
My pleasure, pugs slugs! A grind at times but mostly a joy in the dark days of winter to be watching minor league baseball from the summer.
Nice get on Rios! I missed him in the end game of CBS AL only auction a while back and I’m feeling the pang now more than ever. Glad to hear we’re on the same wavelength.
Good get on Greene, too! And thanks for the heads up RE which Castillo is this Castillo : )
Thanks again! Best of bounces to you in your season!
Hi Itch!
Love all of your work. I’m in a H2H 10 team league where we keep 10 players forever. Categories are runs, hits, avg, HR, RBI, SB, walks.
Would you trade Devers for Albies?
For context I could move Witt Jr over to 3B and currently have Jorge Polanco at 2B.
Rest of my team is:
1B – Alonso
2B – Albies *
3B – Witt Jr
SS – Bo
OF – Acuna
OF – Tatis
OF – Robert
Util: Julio Rodriguez
Bench: Polanco*, Carroll, Matos, Franmil, Reyes, Gleyber,
Let me know if I should get Albies or keep Devers!
Thanks,
LG
Hi, LG!
Thanks for the kind words!
I would trade Devers for Albies in that context. Good fit all around there.
Keep forever league. No specific need. If you had roster space for one are you going with Rios or Kwan?
Kwan, Dude.
He’ll tie the room together.
Morning Itch!
How appropriate your write up is as I am Round 28 0f my draft. Wondering who i will burn my next pick on. While Rios is gone still are others on the board. I was disappointed the Brujan was sent down but will keep an eye on him.Do you have a late round SP I should take a flyer on?
Hi junior56!
Sorry I dropped the ball here. I really like Bryce Elder in Atlanta and Jayden Murray in Tampa.
Itch ! You’re the best in the biz imo .. 12 team keep 10 plus 12 farm/stash .. was offered Moreno for my Pratto … would ya ? Thanks as always !
Thanks, Lower the Jolly Roger!!
If it’s one catcher, 12 team . . . yeah even then I think I do this. Anything beyond that in terms of catcher depth, I’m all about it.
Hello itch, wondering what your take is on Andres Gimenez? IMO he is quite capable of 10-15 homers and over 20 sbs. If he shows he is capable of hitting with average I can see him with a top 3 spot in the order. Am I dreaming? He was a touted prospect at one point.
Hello Homer’s got the Runs,
You nailed the primary question with Gimenez: can he make enough quality contact to hold down a major league job? He hit .271 with 3 HR and 4 SB in September, born from a swing-a-lot approach that left him with a 1%/28% BB/K rate. He’s talented enough to post roto stats, no dream.
I’ve typically looked beyond him in my own leagued and will continue to do so, but I won’t be surprised if he carves out an everyday gig. The club is heavily invested in his success.
Another question: I might be able to flip Mitch Keller for Muncy to a rebuilding team. I know Keller has sucked worst of all, but he’s looking good. Is Muncy healthy and does he have much left in the tank? Is it better to just hold Keller like a lotto ticket? Muncy would be a utility/bench bat.
Yes please. Doesn’t really matter to me if Muncy is healthy; that’s a good get even if he’s hurt. If he establishes health, you can probably swap him for a better arm than Keller.
whoever the muncy owner is in that league, talk to him frequently, using a poker metaphor that’s the guy you build games around.
Itch, did you hear Dusty Baker gushing about Pedro Leon? It sounded as if he wanted Leon to be his starting CF but was overruled by the org. Sounds like he is the surprise standout in camp.
Do you buy it?
Also, is Castillo PIT worth adding in a dynasty league? Or am I better using that roster spot for daily player moves?
Thanks, homie!
I did not hear that, Philip? Do you happen to remember the spot or have the link?
Yes on Castillo. He’s gonna add outfield early and be SS 2B OF in most leagues with 20 HR pop and just about everyday playing time. Good plate skills should help him adjust.
The Itch!
Awesome!!
a. Signed up GCooper in my 4×4 dynasty. Would you add Rios over Cooper? Over anyone else? Here’s the 35-man (plus 15-man MiLB) team after cuts.
Garver
Cron
India
Chapman
Bogaerts
Schwindel
Villar
Walsh, Betts, Cooper, Fraley, Marte
Robles, Siri
Bench Biggio, Mateo, Arozarena, CJoe, Vierling (these guys are on the bench as they don’t play April 7)
MiLB Harris, Brujan, EMontero, Walker, BAcuna, Arias, Butler, Cowser, JLowe, Wiemer
SP Cease, Manoah, Musgrove, Ryan, Gonsolin, Houck, Kopech, Lodolo, Ranger
RP Doval, Hendriks, Kittredge, Warren, Whitlock, Iglesias, CGreen
MiLB Roansy, Walston, EuryP, LoganT, JaydenM
b. Signed up Marsh in both my RCLs (after dropping him when I saw JUp raking in ST) – after JUp was DFA. JUp DFA is a head-scratcher for me, I guess LAA is giving him a chance to land somewhere else for free?
c. George Carlin quote of the day for April 3, 2022
‘Everyone smiles in the same language.’
Cheers,
Ante
Ante!!
Sorry for the delayed response. Got swallowed whole by life for a beat there.
a. I guess you gotta keep Cooper. I think I’d drop Fraley for Rios.
b. I’m eager to see where he lands. Feels like a Rockies type. .
c. that’s some Twain style stuff from Carlin there : )
Hi Itch,
Abrahms worthy of a hold in an RCL? Do you think he shows up at all on the big league level?
Hi, Joe,
I’d hold him through 15 games then move on if they don’t call him up.
I do think he’ll play MLB games this year.
Good morning Itch!
Not posted on here for a while, but reading your posts with great pleasure, and got me some bright prospects thanks to you. Kudos for leading me to Manoah and Baz (when he’s healthy again) last year. Loved your predictions post the other day – hope you’re right about Espino and Eury Perez for 2023, as I’m strangely (for me) in love with Prospect Pitchers at the moment – got a few Lodolo shares as well.
I got questions!
I’ve lucked into Casas in a Dynasty, but I’m not overly sold on him – would you try and trade for Khalil Watson ? Max Meyer ? Not getting any bites at the moment
I’m also trying to pick-up Nick Yorke on Waivers – how high will he be next year, do you think? You sound keener on him than Casas
Grey’s out on Shane Bieber – would you be looking to trade him ? Would McLanahan be a good trade in a Dynasty right now ?
What’s happening with Hedbert Perez ? I couldn’t see him on your lists, and I have shares. Have you moved on from him ?
I’ve also got shares in Nick Pratto, but my Dynasty Leagues are typically 12 Teams – I’m guessing I could do better, maybe Khalil Watson ?
So good to see so many top Rookies starting the season on the field!
Hope you’re keeping well. Sorry for all the questions, I’m sure I had a few more. But hey – who else am I going to ask ?
Have a great Sunday!
John
Good morning, Baggie John!
Thanks for the kind words and strong memory : )
Feels like a pretty rich time for prospect pitchers in general, partly because the echo chamber seems to have fully adjusted to their inherent risk, so the cost isn’t real crazy to get in on the Espinos, Lodolos and Eurys of the world.
I would trade Casas for Watson but not for Meyer.
Yeah I like Yorke a bit better than Casas long term. Good bet he’s a top ten type next year.
I wouldn’t trade Bieber away at the moment. He does seem like a sticky tack dude with an arm issue, so if somebody came pounding down the door for him, I’d offer them some tea or coffee and a chair and talk it out. I’m worried about putting a guy like him on the block right now because his upside is still really high in Cleveland, higher than McClanahan’s imo. I’d hold.
Hedbert fell a bit to the 80-overall range but a fair bit of that is me playing the market. Don’t want to encourage people to pay a top 30 price if they can get him much later. I also have some concerns about his long term speed and the wait time in general. If a guy like him doesn’t rocket up into Yorke-land and make himself a trade chip, you’re just waiting half a decade to get much out of him in the categories.
If you don’t mind the step back, Watson is a fair return for Pratto. Unlike Hedbert, I fully expect Watson to be a huge trade piece this time next year and might even be too hot to move at that point.
Yeah I’m pretty happy with the rookie turnout. Expanded playoffs plus incentives seem to have helped. Also just the timelines of the guys themselves and having most of a 2021 milb season.
No such thing as too many questions! Especially a week before Opening Day : )
Thanks! Hope you have a great day/week, too,
Itch
Lol. I was planning on asking about rios before I even read your piece. I got him through waivers when i heard the news. It feels good to see you fully endorse him w/o me even asking about it. Your rationale about his opportunity is even better news.
Timing of the universe at work here : )