Prospect News: Boston Loves Goodbyes

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. 

Those were my initial thoughts regarding this Rafael Devers trade. 

The Red Sox treated real baseball like a video game during the off-season, signing Alex Bregman before discussing the possibilities with Rafael Devers, a player they had recently signed for $313.5 million. I’m not saying a team should run every transaction by their third baseman, but if you’re going to sign an All-Star at your franchise player’s position, you might want to lay some groundwork within the clubhouse.

Another thought: I was surprised when that story about John Henry flying to meet with Devers in Kansas City got leaked. How does something like that become public? Probably because they wanted it to, right? Wanted to look proactive? Or create some leverage in the public eye? I dunno. But that feels like a private kind of meeting. Instead, via Sports Illustrated, everyone knew it was about to happen and later learned that Devers did not agree to play first base despite being in a barbeque-free room with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, team president Sam Kennedy, manager Alex Cora and owner John Henry. Breslow was quoted by Jeff Passan as saying “The decision was never going to be made on a couch in an office in Kansas City.” I don’t like the couch or office parts. Makes me think they were in the visiting clubhouse. Which is not where you want to have a crucial meeting, I think. Nice restaurants don’t often have couches around the tables, is all I’m saying. 

I realize that the model-based math systems get wonky when you take a guy’s defensive value away, but this franchise had David Ortiz. Shohei Ohtani won the NL MVP last year. In some ways, it’s a blessing that Devers had adapted to his fate as a non-fielder. Should help his longevity if he takes care of himself. Plus, he’s been on fire since late April, slashing .316/.441/.603 with a superb 18.8-to-16.4 strikeout-to-walk rate over 46 games. In truth, he’s never been better in the batter’s box, which is especially impressive considering we’ve got something of a dead-ball season underway with oversized seams and increased drag on the baseball. 

For a relative pittance, the Giants acquired his age 28-through-36 seasons, which could be several prime-age seasons of playoff pushes. These next four years could also be the best of his career as a hitter. Aaron Judge is 33, by the way, and I know he’s barely human and therefore a poor comparison to anyone, but Devers is pretty damn talented himself. His 148 wRC+ this season is a career high. 

The Giants have some risky contracts right now, but it’s hard to hate what Buster Posey is putting together. Makes sense that a smart catcher can cut through the noise and add a great baseball player who costs mostly money. Boston’s Craig Breslow seems to be guided by saving money in accordance with the models. A former player himself, he should’ve been able to see this from Devers’ perspective from jump street and build some inroads there. Easier said than done, I realize, but anyone could’ve predicted that might get complicated. 

Oh, and Alex Bregman has opt-outs after each of the next two seasons. His agent is Scott Boras, which suggests he’ll use that first opt-out, even if he wants to stay in Boston. Would bring them back to the table, and he’d have new leverage. They didn’t even really need him when they signed him. They sure need him now. He’ll be 32 at the start of next season. 

The only “winner” in this trade is OF James Tibbs III, a left-handed hitter who won’t have to play his home games in San Francisco. The 13th overall pick in 2024 out of Florida State, Tibbs will head to Double-A Portland after hitting 13 home runs with a 132 wRC+ in 57 games for the Giants High-A affiliate in Eugene. His plate skills have been Devers-esque: a 17.6-to-16.4 strikeout-to-walk rate. 

RHP Jordan Hicks is kind of an underrated piece of this. He could be, and has been at times, a truly elite reliever. Every team could use another arm at this point in the season. If Hicks gets healthy, and the team can get him in rhythm, he’ll be a lights-out end-game option and give them three postseason pushes at ages 28, 29 and 30. Course that’s assuming they don’t see him as a starter. 

It’s also pretty easy to talk yourself into LHP Kyle Harrison, a 23-year-old who I’ve always been low on due to his lack of control. He’s improved a bit in that area and has a 1.27 WHIP and 4.56 ERA through 23.2 innings this year. Lefty starters who average 95.1 mph with the fastball are not common. The league average is 93.2 mph, but that includes relievers. The club might be planning to turn that slurve into a cutter and encourage him to throw the changeup against same-side hitters. He currently throws the slurve 25 percent of the time, and it’s not working. Batters are slugging .810 against the pitch. 

RHP Jose Bello is exactly what this developmental group loves: a pitchability guy with excellent off-speed command. Listed at 6’1” 164 lbs, he’s a 20-year-old with room to add velocity, and his slider and changeup are already dominating young hitters to the tune of 28 strikeouts and a 0.72 WHIP in 18 innings pitched.  

I’ve seen some public-facing model stuff that says this was a huge overpay by San Francisco, but those start from the premise that the Devers contract is already about $40 million underwater. I reject that premise. The models, to me, are pretty much useless at the highest end because there’s not another Rafael Devers available to you. Even if one became available on the free agent market, you would have to out-woo and out-spend a bunch of other rich guys who want to win just as much or more than your rich people want to win. If you don’t want any elite players, that’s fine, but if you do want players so good they cannot be replaced, you have to bend a little at the edges of the math, and Boston has repeatedly refused to do that. The 313 million dollar extension was supposed to signal the end of that sort of thinking, but then egos got involved on all sides, so they’re back on their goodbye-forever bullshit in beantown. Makes me want to watch Good Will Hunting. 

Thanks for reading! 

PS: The Red Sox will be in San Francisco this Friday for the start of a three-game series. 

PPS: Here’s a quote from Posey that crossed my path via Alex Pavolic after I’d finished this article. I think it works even better at the end here than it would if I tucked it into the middle: “The bat is so special. It’s really hard to acquire this type of talent at this point of his career. It felt like this was a chance to take a shot.”