Points Leagues: Fantasy Baseball Playoffs

PLAYOFFS…?

You read that right; the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner.  For those of us who partake in those formats, we share a brotherhood of excitement and heartache.  How many of us have trailed all week, just to pull out a win on Sunday?  How many have been on the opposite side of that coin?  Yes, it happens to all of us.  That’s what makes fantasy playoff leagues so fun.  Here is one of mine…and it happened just last season.

True story: I’m matched up in the semi-finals against my best buddy!  We’ve been competing against each other for two decades, and we even share teams in other leagues, but this is our original home league, so it’s Best Man Wins!  There’s no in-between.

Getting back to the matchup, I’m supposed to win.  That’s not me bragging, I had the best team in the league all season, BY FAR!  My weekly record was 18-2-1.  Impressive, I know, but it’s a 5×5 league, so any guesses on those standings?  Let me just say, it was equally impressive.  The second-place team was 15 games back.  The third-place team…over 20 games back, and so on.  So, yea, I was supposed to take the trophy.

It’s been a close matchup all week, back and forth, but I’m generally on the positive side.  As Sunday afternoon unfolds, it’s looking likely that I’m going to come up short.  My offense sputters a bit, and he’s got a couple bats going on Sunday Night Baseball.  I have the tiebreaker on my side, but the day games end with a 4.5-5.5 loss looking more and more inevitable, and I resign myself for what’s to come.  Enter the LAD-COL game on Sunday night.

The Rockies score a run in the 2^nd and hold the Dodgers scoreless through 7 innings.  On the offensive side, he has Mookie Betts and Max Muncy.  The offensive stats are still fairly close, and I’m looking for a couple 0-fers to lock down my winning categories.  I’m still trailing by just percentage points in the WHIP column as well, and the only active pitcher available for either of us is Michael Kopech in my pen.  At this point, Kopech is pitching in the 8^th (holds) or occasionally in the 9^th (saves).  He’s on my roster because our league is a SvH format so he’s extremely useful.  But if the Dodgers bats don’t wake up, just not Betts or Muncy, he won’t even toe the rubber in this one.

Long story, short(er), The Dodgers score 2 in the 8^th, Kopech comes in the bottom of the 8^th and pitches a clean inning with 2 Ks, and I squeak out a W.  The best part, I’m traveling that day, and my buddy is narrating all of this to me in real time as I’m driving from the airport.  It’s an awkward situation, but he congratulates me, and we move on.

NOT SO FAST, MY FRIENDS! 

When I log into the league on Monday morning, I’m matched up in the consolation game.  What the F__!?  Yep, you probably guessed it, a stat correction (FROM THE PREVIOUS MONDAY!) added a couple ERs to my ledger, and my 5.5-4.5 win turned to a 4.5-5.5 loss.  Brutal!  That one stung for a while, I won’t lie.

So, the moral of the story…never rest on your laurels.  Set yourself up for playoff success, no matter your situation.

And that’s the focus today, identifying players who may be available on the wire and can help you win a ‘Ship!  Specifically, I’m looking at recent production (post All-Star break) and generally <50% ownership – we’re digging deep!

POWER

Let’s start with those looking for some late-season Power!

I did an article awhile back (2024, to be exact) where I looked at a variety of power categories and defined what I called “elite-level” production based on 2023 full season statistics.

For instance, HR/PA (Home Runs per Plate Appearance) is not a mainstream analytic to measure power hitters but a logical one to think about.  In 2023, the very top power hitters had HR/PA values above 7.35%. For that 2024 analysis, I set the HR/PA bar at 5.50%.  A total of 28 hitters surpassed that rate in 2023, the 28^thranked player being Ronald Acuna Jr.  In my mind, a total of only 28 players measuring above that bar makes it elite in my mind.  So that’s where the line was drawn.

I made similar “lines” for EV (Exit Velocity) at 92 mph, LA (Launch Angle) at 15 degrees, Barrel% at 12%, HardHit% at 49% and Hard-Soft% at 22%.  I admit, many of these numbers are completely subjective, but I found a clear dividing line between “above average” and “elite.”  Feel free to adjust if you like.  You do you, and I’ll do me!

With the criteria set, here are players I found that deserve your attention:

• Jo Adell, LAA: Jo Adell is criminally under owned in my mind.  In Yahoo, for instance, he stands at 38%.  If he’s on your wire, make room for him.  Since the break, he has 9 HRs and a HR/PA of 7.1% (elite).  He also logging elite EV (92.8 mph), LA (19 degrees), Barrel% (17.7%) and HardHit% (56.6%).  Run, don’t walk…
• Mark Vientos, NYM: Mark Vientos is hovering right around the 50% ownership mark where I’m looking. In fact, he was available in my home league.  I say, “was” because he is now rostered by yours truly as a replacement for Jordan Westburg and will man the hot corner for me in the fantasy playoffs. Why?  Because he’s hitting over .300 with 4 dingers in the past two weeks.  His advanced analytics help explain why…elite EV (92.4 mph), LA (19.5 degrees), Barrel% (14.9%), HardHit% (56.7%) and Hard-Soft% (31.3%).

Honorable Mentions:

• Brett Baty, NYM: Barrel% (13.8%) plus a 1.058 WAR.
• Trent Grisham, NYY: Barrel% (11.9%) and Hard-Soft% (27.2%)
• Colt Keith, DET: LA (17.1 degrees) and Hard-Soft% (26.2%)
• Miguel Vargas, CHW: LA (18.3 degrees) and Hard-Soft% (23.6%)

SPEED

Similarly, those that need speed should look for the following:

• Chandler Simpson, TB: I was surprised to find Chandler Simpson is only owned in about 33% of Yahoo leagues.  Really?  He has 11 bags since the break and a SPD score of 7.42.  That is elite, my friends.
• Brett Baty, NYM: Our friend, Brett Baty, has a SPD score of 5.35 over the past month plus.  Granted, he only has a couple bags in total but the NYM may realize this too and start to unleash him more.  He’s worth a stash.
• Brooks Lee, MIN: Brooks Lee has been an all-around solid fantasy player this season. He didn’t make the cut in my power rankings above, but I note his Hard-Soft% is elite at 24.4%.  We’re talking speed here though.  I know, it’s kind of a reach to push a player with only a couple SBs on the season but with a SPD score of 5.15, supported by a 23.4 ft/sec sprint speed, there’s a lot to like with this player.

PITCHERS

Finding pitchers on the waiver wire is a bit tricker.  For me, it comes down to three prominent analytics:  IP, K-BB%, and SIERA.  I’ve written about this a few times but here is the original article (How Sexy is Ciara…Ummm, I mean SIERA?) providing the best background on why these three are key.

So, how do I apply this?

• IP (Innings Pitched) is rather simple. The more IP, the higher your rank.  Today, I’m really only looking at SPs over a span of about 6 weeks, so a few innings here and there may make a big difference in the IP rankings.
• K-BB% speaks for itself too. We like high K% and low BB%.  For points leagues, this goes beyond just the scoring for each category, it also plays into categories like ER, ERA/WHIP, etc. if your league scores those too.
• SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), like FIP (Field Independent Pitching), attempts to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher by more accurately modeling what makes a pitcher successful.

To rack-n-stack the 146 pitchers who meet the criteria (> 20 IP), I sum all three of the ranks into one then sort in order.  Like golf, the lowest score wins.  As you would expect, pitchers with high ownership tend to rise to the surface.  Here are a few with lower ownership and may be available on your wire:

• Ryne Nelson, ARI: Ryne Nelson shows availability in a little over half of leagues. In this analysis, he comes in as a top 12 SP right now, including 13^th in IP, 28^th in K-BB% and 39^th in SIERA.  He gave up a few extra ERs in Texas and Colorado, raising his ERA to 3.63, but had a nice string of starts previously.  His success hinges on limiting HRs (1.0 HR/9) and keeping his career-best Swing K% above 10%.  If you need SP depth, he’s not a bad option to consider.
• Zebby Matthews, MIN: The rookie is pitching pretty well lately and generally available in almost two-thirds of Yahoo leagues. Supported by a strong 11.2 K/9 (18^th), he comes in #19 in this analysis.  All may not be roses though, a 40% HardHit% and 12% Barrel% suggests you should be cautious.
• Yu Darvish, SDP: Despite missing half the season, Yu Darvish shows to be available in a little over half of leagues and is making a case for your playoff roster.  He’s not generating as many strikeouts as we’re used to (K-BB% of 17.5%), but the analytics show he’s rounding into pitching shape at the right time.  The most encouraging thing I see is a GB% (Ground Ball %) over 40% and we know that plays in Petco Park.  If he continues to improve, this may prove to be one of the savvier pickups of the season.

Now that we’re prepared to win our Points Leagues, my #1 goal with these, I have an announcement to make.  This is my last baseball article of the season.  No, I’m not retiring, but it’s time to take off the Bo Jackson jersey here at Razzball and focus strictly on the football side of the house.

We’re a short 10 days until the NFL season kicks off.  The RazzballNFL crew has been extremely busy helping you with all your draft needs.  All our articles are up and free at Razzball NFL.  Rudy has been hard at work too prepping all our premium content.  We’re even livestreaming a couple of our Razzball listener-league drafts this week.  There’s literally something for everyone.

Programming note:  Our flagship #RazzballNFL Sunday Start/Sit show premiers Sunday morning (September 7 at 11:00 am EDT) for two hours before kickoff.  Right up to gametime, Sky (@SkyGuasco), Matt (@Stiles08), Jeff (@Jefferson__21), Dave (@crewser128) and I will be answering all your fantasy football start/sit questions.  What better place to get all your lineup questions answered in real time.  Follow us on YouTube (@RazzballFantasy) so you don’t miss any of the action.

So, a sincere thank you for all the fantastic support of my baseball work here this season.  I’ve enjoyed it immensely and hope you got a useful nugget or two out of it as well.  Don’t be strangers, come over the football side and say “HI” to me and the boys…and let me know how your Championship runs turn out.

If you haven’t done so yet (why has it taken you so long), be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret and BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.