Patrick Sandoval always makes me think of Patrick from SpongeBob crossed with Pablo Sandoval, so I’m inclined to like him immediately. How can you not love the visual of SpongeBob’s Patrick and Pablo Sandoval? Like Patrick with Pablo’s body. I am giggling right now just thinking of it. So, I found Patrick Sandoval for my 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper series after searching for xERA. First, like the dentist tells you, let’s check for caveats. xERA isn’t my favorite stat. If Patrick Sandoval only had that going for him, I might’ve ignored him, but there’s more to him, which I’ll get to. xERA is, well, here’s MLB’s definition:

Expected ERA, or xERA, is a simple 1:1 translation of Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA), converted to the ERA scale. xwOBA takes into account the amount of contact (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch) and the quality of that contact (exit velocity and launch angle), in an attempt to credit the pitcher or hitter for the moment of contact, not for what might happen to that contact thanks to other factors like ballpark, weather, or defense.

By converting this to the ERA scale, it puts xwOBA in numbers that are more familiar, and allows it to be compared directly to the pitcher’s actual ERA. (If you’re familiar with FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the idea is similar, just that now Statcast quality of contact can be included.)

xERA is not necessarily predictive, but if a pitcher has an xERA that is significantly higher than his actual ERA, it should make you want to take a closer look into how he suppressed those runs.

As you see, it’s pretty wishy-washy, even from the source. “Is not necessarily predictive.” Yeah, no kidding, but when you say it like that, you’re really pointing out how much you don’t trust it. Hilariously (which is the word I use when none of something is hilarious), Sandoval’s ERA (3.62) was basically the same as his xERA (3.57), on par with Robbie Ray, Pablo Lopez, Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo. Well, like I said, it’s merely one stat. Let’s get to the others. So, what can we expect from Patrick Sandoval for 2022 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Patrick Sandoval sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve finished my 2022 fantasy baseball rankings and they’re all available on our Patreon. Anyway II, the Patrick Sandoval sleeper:

Patrick Sandoval had the third best average exit velocity for starters, behind only Zack Wheeler and Ryan Yarbrough and in front of Corbin Burnes, Wade Miley and Julio Urias. Clearly, there’s some wonky names mixed in there with some aces. It’s a matter of whether we think Sandoval is more Wheeler than Yarbrough; more Burnes and Urias than Miley. Or the other scenario is Miley and Yarbrough are being thought of as not good, when they might be good. Well, not to go too far down that path, but Miley isn’t as bad as you think (11 seasons, 4.05 xFIP and that was in a lot of terrible parks) and Yarbrough had other issues last year. Yarbrough had a well-below average SwStr%, and Sandoval’s was 15.2%. That SwStr% was 12th best in the major leagues. On that SwStr% list, looking at 11 to 14: Lucas Giolito, Patrick Sandoval, Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease. Yes, I checked to make sure I wasn’t accidentally sorting by only Angels and White Sox. Sandoval is in front of a lot of guys on that list (like 150-something), but a few key names he was better than: Gerrit Cole, Freddy Peralta, Snell, Ohtani, Alcantara and a shizzton of others. The top SwStr% is truly the cream rising, being skimmed off by surface area, and holding it to the sun with the shadow on the ground reading, “Yum.”

When sorting by Chase Rate, which Google defines as Chase Bank’s APR–Wait, that’s wrong. So, number of times Patrick Sandoval gets guys to go “Oopsie, that’s not a strike” was 34%. That’s 45th in the league. Of course, that’s above average, but if he can get that to 35%, we’ll be cooking with gas. Yes, the difference between him and an ace is one percentage of a point on his chase rate. Julio Urias was 35% and 12th in the league. 30-plus pitchers sit between them (this is all sorting by 80 IP, because that’s how many Sandoval had last year). Sandoval “only” had a 9.7 K/9, which is crazy for a guy with a a great chase rate and SwStr%. I mention this in the rankings (which are available now on Patreon), but someone should come up with an xK%. A formula that says how much a player’s strikeout rate should be. Like xERA for strikeouts. Regularly in the minors, Patrick Sandoval’s K/9 was way above 10 and reaching 14+ at times. Don’t want to get too crazy with myself, but Sandoval is being projected by Steamer has having a 9.15 K/9, and I’m thinking it might be better by a full strikeout per nine.

Being as good as Patrick Sandoval is back breaking work! Welp, that is one drawback, Patrick Sandoval ended his season early with a stress fracture in his back. Back injuries are scary since they can flare up at any time, but Sandoval will supposedly be fine for the start of the season. The other big drawback is his command is a little bleh at times. Last year, it was 3.7 BB/9, and previously it’s been over 4 in the minors. That could cause problems for him. But a guy with a 3.50-ish ERA with a 3.7 BB/9? Okay, what if his command gets dramatically better since he’s only 25? Then Sandoval becomes this year’s Robbie Ray. Pants and all! (Maybe not pants.) That’s how close Sandoval is to a breakout. For 2022, I’ll give Patrick Sandoval projections of 8-9/3.84/1.27/159 in 141 IP with a chance for much more.

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dj
dj
5 months ago

Better late than never…. Dual qualifiers: Joe Panik (2b,3b), Josh Fuentes(1b,3b)

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

i presume he’s indicating you missed those 2 in your multi elig post. that or they just got those positions lately on some site?

DonnieB
DonnieB
5 months ago

In a 12 team roto auction with a $300 cap, who of these would be your last 2 keepers:
Lourdes Gurriel $10
Alex Kirilloff. $10
Daulton Varsho $10
Franmil Reyes $6
D. Swanson. $4
C. Bellinger $10
Thank you and the jury is still out on your new page. I think the first look seems very “busy”.

Schmohawks Bob
Schmohawks Bob
5 months ago

Hey Grey, for me the link is dead. I had to come in from the side.

Sport
Sport
5 months ago

New page looks great! Going to take a little getting used to maneuvering but with time it will be I’m awesome.

Ian
Ian
5 months ago

Hey G – been considering the Patreon. Been reading since….2008ish is my best guess? Least I can do right? Are your ranks up there already? With fantasy football over, I’m starting to get that itch!

goodfold2
goodfold2
5 months ago

wow page changed massively. now can’t go back by number, if say you want to go back to a july article (much less farther) it’ll take quite a bit longer than at any past time. before you could go page by page by number.

– insurance adjuster, is that like the insurance detective, such as memento man was?

goodfold2
goodfold2
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

you and itch were talking about both either being related to or knowing (i think it was both related to) insurance adjusters. but is insurance adjuster what memento man was, or was his role as obvious insurance detective a different job.

Chingon456
Chingon456
5 months ago

Grey,
What are your thoughts on a Abreu for S. Marte deal straight up in a keeper league?
12 team H2H we keep 10.
I have Abreu and Olson at 1st. OF are Yordan and K.tucker. Mookie at 2nd (I believe yahoo will have him at 2nd/of eligibility).

Jack Straw
Jack Straw
5 months ago

Hi Grey –

I was catching-up some of your earlier 2022 sleeper posts – even a few months later they are still gold!

Standard 5x 5 10 team AL-only league. I have a couple of prospects whom I assume / hope will get good amount of playing time – S. Torkelson and J. Jung. Each would cost $8 for 2022 and salary increases by $5 each subsequent season.

How do you feel about those prices for 2022? Hard to know what they would go for in auction- while I am thinking about this year as I am competitive, also thinking about $13 in 2023. Thoughts on each given your earlier sleeper posts ? For additional context, I am also keeping well priced M. Olson, C. Mullins, and A. Garcia on that squad.

Powdered Toast Man
Powdered Toast Man
5 months ago

Had Sandoval I’m my AL only last year and he helped me make a strong playoff push before I collapsed. Good call- I was keeping an eye on him for my redrafts but was worried about the back injury,

Thanks Grey- peace out and stay safe from Omicron. Isn’t that where they basketball in Atlanta?

406mtechdigger
406mtechdigger
5 months ago

Great stuff! HAve really enjoyed your early rankings on Patreon, anyone who hasn’t ponied up yet needs to get on the horse.

Interested on your thoughts for my $1000 Keeper H2H Pts League. Here is who I am thinking I will keep:

20 C Adley Rutschman
20 1B Austin Riley (3B)
100 2B Ozzie Albies
125 SS Trea Turner (2B)
3B
60 OF Luis Robert
20 OF Franmil Reyes
40 OF JD Martinez
40 U Marcus Semian (2B, SS)

Bench
40 OF Julio Rodriquez
20 1B Spencer Torkelson

60 SP Lance Lynn
60 SP Max Fried
20 SP Tyler Mahle
20 SP Logan Gilbert
20 SP Mike Clevinger

We can Carry 7 SP’s and 4 RP’s. Max 10 starts per week. I like to keep at least one SP spot open to stream.

Due to the format and my league mates tactics I tend to lean heavily towards Stars and scrubs, lots of churn on the last few spots of bench for prospects/hot hands.

If I follow the above plan I have around $150 left to spend when leaving some for FAAB

Other’s I could keep….
100 1B Jose Abreu
40 OF Trent Grisham
20 SS Marco Luciano
20 OF Adolis Garcia
40 SP Framber Valdez
40 SP Pablo Lopez
60 SP Carlos Carrasco
20 SP John Means
20 SP Alex Wood

Should I keep Framber too? What about Turner, I think I could redraft him for about this same price, but with Semien as top current Utility should I throw Turner back and use that $$$ to value hunt elsewhere? I am an M’s fan so want to keep J Rod but am pretty sure I am costing myself value there. Any other thoughts you have are greatly appreciated!

406mtechdigger
406mtechdigger
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

Thanks Grey!

I am the Walus
I am the Walus
5 months ago

Roster build question.
10 team auction/roto – 13 hitter, 10 pitchers, 6 bench spots with 4 keepers (4 keepers are awesome (4 hitters)–Robert, Ohtani, Franco, O’neal).

Would you lean toward:
A – $40 $30, $18, $11, $8 for 5 hitters and then going $7-$5 for the rest and $8, 3, 1 on hitters bench and giving myself a couple really good upside hitters on bench.
Pitchers – $17, 16, 8, 7, 5, 5, $3 and giving myself several shots at sleepers for SP.
or
B – taking a few of those bench dollar away and going something like $40, 30, 18, 17, 15 with $1 hitter bench and SP $17, $16, 8, 5, 3, 1, 1
I guess the question could be summarized by asking how much do you value the sleepers you can draft and put on your bench in shallow league?

I am the Walus
I am the Walus
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

That’s what I’ve done in the past but this league has gone top heavy and the players left under $8 last yr included the likes of — Semien, Correa, Hoskins, Edmans, Mountcastle, JD, Stanton, Verdugo, Cron, Donaldson, Reyes, Riley, Walsh, turner and SP – Musgrove, Lopez, Montas, McCluellers, Gausman, Mahler, Urquidy. I understand the bust rate is higher also , but my thought was why not get another bite a couple more bites apple?

Sport
Sport
5 months ago

Thank you for another good sleeper! I had my SP targets pegged but some recent sleeper posts have helped me open up my options more. I had not planned on looking at Sandoval but I also had not realized his minors K rate was so high. I love me some high K rates!

In my 14 team dynasty I was offered Olson/Nick Gordon for Vaughn/Nate Lowe. Been trying to move Lowe, but I do not want Gordon at all. With Abreu being my 1B for now, I considered the deal to get Olson. The manager canceled the trade request though. We start 5 OF and while I do like my current OF, losing Vaughn would have meant I had to move Blackmon into one of those starting OF spots. So I was right to not accept the trade immediately, or did I miss an opportunity?

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

He just offered me Verdugo/Olson for Vaughn/Lowe. Jump on it right?!

Sport
Sport
Reply to  Sport
5 months ago

Nevermind. It’s Olson/Verdugo for Vaughn/Lowe/Civale. You like Verdugo?

NUX
NUX
5 months ago

I just missed out on Sando in this dynasty startup draft that I’m in, which was a bummer. I did grab some other fun stuff though. What you think of the squad so far G? 16 team roto, with pretty standard cats except OPS (AVG is still a cat) and W+QS and SV+HLD as the oddball cats.

2023 gonna be a good year for this squad! Any and all criticisms or thoughts welcome. Unless you are in this league with me. Then I ask that you plz show yourself as a proud member of Team Razz.

C- ya motha, she’ll tellya
1B-
2B- India
3B- Jeimer Candelario
SS- Willy Adames
CI- Ke’Bryan Hayes
MI-
LF- Schwarber
CF-
RF-
OF- AVaughn
UT-

SP- Freddy P
SP- Alek Manoah
SP- Charlie Morton
SP- Joe Ryan

RP- none drafted yet

Prospects drafted already: Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt, Luis Matos, Corbin Carroll, Triston Casas

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

Very much agreed. I think others in the draft are about to dive into the prospect realm pretty hard here over next few rounds. So I think I can scoop some random 2022 help. Future looks bright. Predicting a money finish in 2023 and 2024. Stay Tuned :)

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

Doubtful, prob too much on my plate with a nine month old and a 55 round startup going on.

Wish I could though. I assume you meant, you in, but that you also know that if I’m in, I win, hehe

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
5 months ago

2021 Heaney and Bundy may have scared me off Angels pitchers not named Ohtani for a year or two.

Pat
Pat
5 months ago

Grey,
Hard to trust Angels starters. Opposite of Indians, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers etc. Wasn’t thrilled with Thor signing there. Find it best to avoid. Like Sandoval the best though.

Do you know when starting next nfbc league? I’m Jonsing to start one. Thanks as always!

DonnieB
DonnieB
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

How will you communicate this league? Love to do one with you again. Thanks.

DonnieB
DonnieB
Reply to  Grey
5 months ago

Great. Are the top 100 coming to Patreon? Would you draft India and Polanco at 72 over Eloy?

DonnieB
DonnieB
Reply to  DonnieB
5 months ago

Berrios could also be there but already have Ray and Peralta.

Richard
Richard
5 months ago

Question about keepers in NL only league. Team limited to 5 “farm” players. Prospects selected in 2 round snake draft I pick 2nd and 12 th; currently have O Cruz, N Gorman, Wilman Diaz & L Campusano Given the state of league I expect players like Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Andy Pages Benny Montgomery to be available
Would you drop Campusano for chance to select any of above

Tweak
Tweak
5 months ago

It so often feels like I’m waiting for the Angels’ pitchers to break right. I think this really stems from a deep hope for their success, if only to support Trout in getting across the line to a World Series.

In recent years, their rotation has obviously been terrible, but they appear to have been working on development. This year feels like an important one to me; they have too many guys on the edge of good that something has to go right:

– Detmers, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, Tyler, Junk, Bachman, Criswell, Canning, Daniel

At least one out of this group has to pitch well in ’22. Heck, if Detmers is everything he looks like he can be and at least two are competent, they might push for the division.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
5 months ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome!

a. Put in a trade for him. I give CBiggio to get PatrickS. Thoughts? Hope it works. Super down on CBiggio after ZiPs for Toronto came out yesterday. Still think Biggio can return to 2020 glory if he’s healthy if the trade fails.

b. Have a great weekend!

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for January 7, 2022

‘In Walnut Creek, CA, anyone who turns his gun can get free therapy while anyone who doesn’t turn in their gun can get free ANYTHING!’

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for January 7, 2022

‘I intend to live forever or die trying.’

Cheers,
Ante