Outfields In Flux: Get Carter

One thing we all learn quickly in Fantasy baseball is Object Permenance…or really lack thereof. Just when we are sure we have a handle on playing time, it changes on a dime, often for no perceptible reason. The Rays always confound us, but oddly enough, they have a predictable lineup for the moment. Lots of other situations sit in flux. Let’s take a look at some of them. All stats are through Saturday games.

Cleveland Guardians

Good luck parsing out what to do with this group. Cleveland is kind of a “hot hand” sort of team, and also one that goes a bit platoon heavy. Steven Kwan leads off pretty much every game and remains as Steven Kwan as always.

Elite hit tool, decent speed, modest power. He’s obviously fully rostered, but is an interesting trade candidate in Fantasy for his uneven stat profile.  After Kwan, it’s a crapshoot.

Lane Thomas just returned from injury, and he has the power/speed profile we all love. Unfortunately, it’s unclear whether he’s going to play every day. Also, he’s not that great an actual baseball player. He has a negative value glove in center and a .153 average with an ugly 32.5% K% in his 80 PA’s this season, concerning after posting similar numbers in his 2 months in Cleveland last year. If he plays full time, he can go at a 20/30 HR/SB pace with decent counting stats, in which case you live with the bad avg. But that’s all far from a given, as he could just as easily slip into a short side platoon role.

Angel Martinez replaced Thomas for the most part in CF, and has moved to mostly 2nd base with Thomas back. The good news is he still plays pretty much every day. The bad news is he’s really only deep league viable as he’s a .235 career hitter with a .276 OBP and limited power and speed. 

Nolan Jones gets most of the starts in RF, but he’s really far removed now from his monster 2023 season. He popped a homer on Friday, but he bats toward the back of a meh lineup, and his overall .220/.309/.333 line with 3 homers and 4 steals plays precisely nowhere. There are some encouraging signs, though. He’s hitting it with some nice pop (91.9 EV) and a 90th Percentile Launch Angle Sweet Spot. At the same time, he’s at a career-best 25.8% K%. In other words, he’s a better all-around hitter than he was in 2023, but it has translated into terrible Fantasy production since then.

Cleveland does have a couple interesting OF eligible guys on hand, they just may or may not get enough playing time to matter Daniel Schneeman has a similar power/speed upside profile to Lane Thomas, with a glove that can play all over the field and a better hit tool. Unfortunately, the Guards have shoehorned him into a strictly strongside platoon role. He’s a good deep league bench guy to have when Cleveland has righty heavy weeks, but a total avoid in shallow formats.

The other guy to keep on the radar is Johnathan Rodriguez, who just got the call-up to replace Jhonkensy Noel. It’s June, so I guess there’s no need for Big Christmas right now. I am hereby dubbing Rodriguez “Big Festivus”. He’s shown excellent pop in AAA, with 29 homers last year and 7 this year in 196 PA’s. and he hit .301 and .324 respectively with wRC+’s of 142 and 145. He has not hit at all in his very limited major league samples, and it’s unclear if he gets more than the short side run Big Christmas got. But keep an eye out for a potential big power source.

Detroit Tigers

How about another confusing AL Central outfield? In this case, though, Detroit has Fantasy options in every strata. Riley Greene is a star who’s only real ding is that he doesn’t run. Kerry Carpenter aka “Kerry Bonds” is probably MLB’s premier guy in the strong side platoon tier. I do not love drafting this archetype because of the lost PA’s, but I wish I had in this case. He’s a career .372 wOBA, 143 wRC+ vs. righties, vs. just .262 and 66 vs. southpaws. He’s staying in this role, but he’s so good vs. righties that we can survive the 0’s.

Parker Meadows had some major helium in early draft season as “this year’s Jarren Duran”, then he went on the shelf for two months with a scary sounding nerve issue. He’s back and leading off vs. righties, while batting towards the bottom vs. lefties. He’s still working off some rust as he has a homer and 2 steals in his first 44 PA’s, but just a .154 average. His early 92.3 EV looks encouraging, as does his 42.9% LA SweetSpot%. But again, it’s really really quick to glean much. Over a full season, he could produce at a 20-30 clip with a .240-ish average. He’s absolutely worth a flyer in all formats.

Beyond these three, the Tigers are loaded with OF-eligible guys that are worth a look in deep league formats, but are unlikely to play enough for shallower ones. Zach McKinstry lines up pretty much everywhere and is kind of a lesser version of Schneeman. In other words, a versatile (mostly) strong side platoon guy with power/speed glimpses that fills a major role on a real life team, but won’t move the needle enough in Fantasy most scoring periods. He’s batting .277, which would mark a career high, and his 35 runs in 245 PA’s paces out pretty well. But he has just 3 homers and 7 steals. His low 86.7 EV and 74th percentile sprint speed suggest maybe the steals could pick up, but not the power.

Javier Baez has drifted a bit as expected. His metrics suggested his hot streak was just that, as he’s hit .235 with a .268 wOBA over the past month with 2 homers. And with Meadows back, he’s pretty much lost his OF gig, though he still gets in about 4-5 games per week at SS or 3B. I bailed in the couple spots I had FAAB-ed him. Wenceel Perez is now back in our Deep League lives and has gotten off to a hot .280 start with 3 homers in just 54 PA’s. He just has the misfortune of playing for what’s suddenly a pretty loaded lineup, so it’s not every day run. Keep an eye out if there’s another injury here. It could work the other way too, for both Baez and Wenceel if Matt Vierling gets back on the field.

Texas Rangers

Evan Carter, how we missed you! The 2023 late season superstar had a lost 2024 amid serious back injuries. He didn’t make the Rangers opening day roster, then got called up in early May, but quickly reinjured. Now he’s back and just exploding. He’s slashing 283 /.368/.517 with 4 homers and 5 steals in just 68 PA’s. He’s super unlikely to continue at quite this pace, at least as far as that high Avg. goes. He has just a 14.7% K%, but his 11.5% SwStr% and 27.3% Whiff% suggests that’s a bit unsustainable. On the other hand, his really early 33.3% Squared Up% would be elite if it holds. He dinged his wrist on Friday and did not start Saturday, but he pinch ran and should return to the lineup by the time you read this. The power/speed combo looks legit, and I remain very optimistic that the Rangers underachieving offense picks up in the 2nd half. He will presumably sit some against tough southpaws, though it’s difficult to tell so far as Texas has barely faced any. I am an absolute buyer here in all formats, even with the injury and platoon risks.

With Leody Taveras gone, there’s not much competition for playing time. Alejandro Osuna got some run with Carter out, and he’s shown decent speed and batting average in the minors. But he’s not playing now. Josh Smith has 5 games in the OF, which makes him eligible in Yahoo, I’m sure, but hardly anywhere else. He’s kind of quietly having a pretty productive year (7 homers, 8 steals, .287 avg.), and his real life versatility gets him near daily PT. He’s also on fire now with at least 2 extra base hits in 6 straight games. But he’s not going to impact Carter as he’s a lefty who gets platooned at times as well. 

Houston Astros

What a mess! Yordan Alvarez remains out indefinitely.  Zach Dezenzo showed some nice skills, but could not get enough run, then went down with an injury himself, as did rarely used Chas McCormick, aka The Accountant. Jacob Melton came up as a replacement and swiped 3 bags in his first 11 games, and then hit the IL himself. So what’s left? 

Slick fielding CF Jake  Meyers remains, and total mea culpa here, I missed on this one. I had in my mind that he’s just a bad hitter with speed only, and a glove that will keep him on the field regularly. Well, he does have no power, but he has 10 steals and he’s hitting .28,9 and it looks pretty real.

He’s doing it in a pretty radical way; making more contact. Yes, revolutionary!  His K% is down to a career low 17.4%, and his Contact% is a career high 80.8%. His EV is a slightly higher than normal 88.4, and he remains fast, so roll it all together and his improvements look pretty legit.

Rookie Cam Smith mostly plays right and has held up remarkably well in a real life sense, learning and excelling at a new position on the fly. Statcast grades him at 82nd percentile in fielding runs value. He’s also carrying a 98 wRC+ after virtually no time in the minors. For Fantasy, however? Not much unfortunately, just 3 homers and 3 steals and a .251 average. There’s nothing to diminish his long term outlook, but he’s a dynasty and deep league play only.

Jose Altuve had started to split time between LF, 2B, and DH, but with all the outfielders down now, he’s likely to play more left field. There’s really no action to take here as he remains a plus batting average guy who goes 20-15 or so. The counting stats will continue to dip as Houston just does not have a fearsome offense these days.

Cooper Hummel now looks like the 4th outfielder. If you’re in an “All Cooper” Fantasy league, he may have relevance, but otherwise, not so much. And I’m kind of appropriating that joke, so I’ll sign off now. Have a great Fantasy week!