This is it! Don’t give up anywhere you’re in range; strange things happen. But given that player adds are pretty much in the book at this point, I figured I’d take a near-final look back at how players performed in Earned Value relative to their auction cost. I’ll use NFBC Auction values from March as their “cost”. I’m just going to look at guys who went for at least $10 for today. I separate them into two tiers: “elite” for ones that went for $20 or more, and then mid-tier guys in the $10-$19 range.
Oh, and some explanation if you’re not familiar with NFBC auctions. These are 15 team leagues where you use $260 of pretend money to fill out a 23 man legal roster of 2 C’s, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 5 OF’s, 1 UT, and 9 P’s, and then snake draft 7 reserves. There’s inflation for “stars” here, as there is with every auction I’ve ever done. Thus, few elite players actually earn their auction price, you predominantly want to “lose” less on these guys than your leaguemates. Yada yada yada, a $30 guy that “earns” as low as $20 might still be a win. I’m going to subjectively declare wins, losses, and in-between. Earned values are through Friday.
Anyways
Elite Tier Wins
Let me reiterate, auction drafts all have massive inflation at the top. Juan Soto is pretty clearly the best actual buy of this group. He never misses a game, and he’s hit 42 homers with 117 runs and 104 RBIs and an out-of-the-blue 35 steals. He has only disappointed in batting average as he’s hitting “just” .266, and even that looks like bad luck as he has a career high and super elite 94.2 EV and a .299 xBA. So yeah, he might have 40 bags already with better luck on batted balls. He has all those steals with 13th percentile sprint speed. The Mets first base coach is an absolute savant; the team has 95 consecutive steals since they were last thrown out by a catcher (they’ve had a handful of pickoffs in there). Soto, to his credi,t has been his best pupil. It’s tough to project him for more than 15-20 steals next year, but even with that, he’s likely to go as the 2nd or 3rd pick overall in drafts.
Julio Rodriguez, I have to admit I did not realize how well he did in the 2nd half of the season. I liked Chourio over him in that spot of the draft (late 1st round in 15’s). Then again, I should have just assumed it since he pops every summer.
Elite Tier, Your Mileage May Vary
Jarren Duran and Lawrence Butler did not play quite up to their draft/auction costs, but they did not bury your teams either. Just wait until the next group. Duran has dipped in every Fantasy stat except RBI’s, but he’s still at 16 HR and 23 steals batting leadoff on a good offense. He could easily get traded to a lesser team, however. Butler had some major positives as he’s a 21-21 guy in a great ballpark with 83 runs, so he’s got the Fantasy “juice”. The problem is he’s hitting just .239 with a 100 wRC+ (vs 130 last year) with negative to flat defensive value mostly in RF. The A’s signed him long term, so they want this to work, but he’s just a 2.2 WAR player in a full season, they’re packed with OFs, and he has bad platoon splits.
Brent Rooker has had a perfectly cromulent season. I have totally dinged him since I drafted him instead of Schwarber when they cost about the same, and both had DH only eligibility to start the season
Mookie Betts’ recent hot streak has turned his season around, but he’s still a really underwhelming 20 homer, 8 steal, .260 guy who scores a lot of runs (93) but will only have SS eligibility next season. He’s going to go much cheaper, Fantasy “pundits” will crow that they got him at such a bargain. But did they? He’s going to be a SS without many steals. Bo Bichette went 18-4, but hit .311. Mookie will have to turn back the clock a bit.
Wyatt Langford should probably get grouped with Butler in a tier of their own, as he’s also at 21-21 but totally underwhelming vs. expectations. He’s batting just .241 and has only 61 RBI’s
Elite Tier Losses
Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 150 wRC+ with 18 homers, a .284 Avg, and 67 runs in 87 games. That’s all really good! But the 7 steals coming off his 2nd major knee surgery and 36 RBI’s? Not so much, at this pric,e when buyers knew they’d have to replace him for a month. But even on a per-game basis, he’s in the same range as his teammate Jurickson Profar and undrafted Ramon Laureano. They’re both very good right now, of course, but you expected much more from Acuna. And hey, maybe you get him cheap next year off this.
At least he’s much better than another teammate, Michael Harris II. I’m using Premier League Relegation and demoting him to Michael Harris III
Jackson Merrill was on and off the IL all year but has hit .321 with 6 homers in the last 2 weeks, and does not turn 23 until next April. He’s an interesting 2026 valuation. He has just 1 steal, so do those bags come back with his health?
Mid Tier Wins
PCA is the most covered guy in Fantasy, I have little to add. His full season numbers still rock. His 2nd half blahs will keep his draft cost high but human, maybe late 2nd round to early 3rd round in 15’s.
Christian Yelich both stayed healthy and produced big time on a surprisingly excellent Brewers team. 29 homers, 16 steals, 100 RBI’s, .269, 142 games, it’s his best year since he exploded in 2019. He needs literally 1 more appearance in the outfield to get to 20 games and 2026 eligibility. He turns 34 in December, and he’s always one bad swing away from inflaming his nagging back injuries. He went mid 7th round in the Too Early Meatball draft, almost exactly where he got drafted in Main Events last spring. That feels about right, even though he outperformed, he’s a risky asset. I’d want at least a share or two, but tough to go overboard.
Randy Arozarena sits 3 homers and 2 steals away from a 30-30 season, but is hitting just .237. Hey, that’s up from .219 last year! He has one more year of team control in Seattle, so it’s an excellent lineup, but a tough ballpark.
Riley Greene, can you say selling out for power?
He’s 24 with huge pedigree and has popped 34 homers with a week to go. We can live with a 30% K%, I mean, he still managed to hit .260. I have no shares and total FOMO, and now it will cost much more to get him in 2026.
Seiya Suzuki belongs here for his season numbers, but he continues to do absolutely nothing besides take walks (17%) since July 19th. He has 1 homer, 15 runs, 11 RBI’,s and 3 steals in 50 games since then. That’s just unplayable, except I kept playing him almost every cycle. I should look objectively at him in the offseason. I have him on an OLAC that will likely win a league (crossing fingers). But hey I’m human! I’m tired of looking at all those 0-fers with a walk or two.
But enough about me.
Mid Tier Meh and Worse
Lou-Bob, Santander, Edman, and Victor Robles are mostly here because of injuries, though Santander was pretty rough when he actually played. The same is mostly true for Edman
Just one point on Robles in terms of roster construction. He projects always as a steals-only sort of guy with limited runs and average value and a major negative in RBIs and HRs. So when you roster him, its almost certainly as an SB patch on a team without much speed anywhere else. Thus, it makes your overall team steals projection decent, but it puts a lot of it on one guy. And if he misses significant time, you have a significant hole.
I mentioned last week that I’ll try to get cheap Mike Trout shares for next season. There’s not a lot to point to other than he’s Mike Trout and stayed relatively healthy in 2025. Jasson Dominguez probably needs a real life trade to a bad team that will just roll him out there. He’s still somehow just 22 and has 10 homers and 23 steals in 425 PA’s, but you can’t really start him in non-daily leagues since the Yankees don’t start him.
