This week I will illustrate some young players adapting to the big leagues both in the outfield and the infield to help your teams. If you play in OBP or keeper leagues, these players should be gone, but in shallower leagues or possibly leagues where owners think back to last year, they may still be in play. The trend emphasized is an improvement in OBP and OPS skills, and a display of confidence in the show.
Outfielders
Last year, Joc Pederson and Steven Souza both earned a cup of coffee in the majors and both fell flat on their face. There is no other way to describe it, we waited for them to get the call up, and for those fantasy rosters that played them in September, well… crap. Not only that, some owners may have put a toe in the water this year and dropped them in shallow leagues after a dismal start thinking more time is needed. That may indeed turn out to be the case, but I have a feeling the worm is turning for Souza and Pederson and time for you to pursue/keep them is now. I touched upon both players briefly in my OBP preview here, and think that with a bit of recent success, both prospects will prove to be reliable outfielders this year. Yes, the sample size is laughably thin, but if you wait for the sample size to grow enough prove it, Pederson and Souza will be long gone by speculators in your league. Now may be your last chance to buy low or trade if think this is the year (or longer in keeper leagues).
| Name | Year | Level | PA | Run | RBI | HR | AVG | OBP | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 2014 | AAA | 553 | 106 | 78 | 33 | 0.303 | 0.435 | 30 |
| Age 22 | 2014 | MLB | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 0.351 | 0 |
| 2015 | MLB | 32 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.286 | 0.375 | 1 |
Again, I know the sample sizes are tiny, but Joc Pederson, the 2014 Pacific Coast League MVP (AAA) may be there for the trade or taking early this year. Pederson did nothing to excite owners with a .143 AVG in the majors last year, and that may leave the door open for a buy-low value this year. Even in his overmatched 2014, the young CF maintained a .351 OBP and the Dodgers thought enough to start him in an outfield of proven veteran talent at the end of Spring Training. Adjust expectations with the PCL minor league numbers in 2014 (mostly hitter’s parks), but Pederson has a big time production potential.
| Name | Year | Level | PA | Run | RBI | HR | AVG | OBP | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Souza | 2014 | AAA | 407 | 62 | 75 | 18 | 0.350 | 0.432 | 26 |
| Age 25 | 2014 | MLB | 26 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.130 | 0.231 | 0 |
| 2015 | MLB | 29 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.379 | 2 |
Steven Souza, the 2014 International League MVP (AAA), has been on the scene a little longer, but the story is rather similar to Pederson’s. Souza came up with the Nationals last year due to injury, posted an underwhelming .130 AVG (with a horrible .230 OBP) and was cast back to the minors and then traded to the Rays as part of the Wil Myers, Trea Turner, three-team blockbuster in December. Gray discussed him as a sleeper here in February shortly afterwards.
Souza is starting to show signs of getting his confidence in the big leagues, hitting this towering blast just days ago. Like Pederson, Souza had a very productive minor league career and toiled last year. As luck would have it, he was traded to a team who needed his help immediately in the Rays, and this may just be the start of things to come from him. Look at the hitting eye for the two young OF, even if they struggle, both Pederson and Souza can stay afloat in an OBP format. At best, they can be a leader in OBP.
Infielders
Switching the focus from outfield to infield, two unlikely candidates may just show signs of a more mature MLB approach, both young and given opportunities perhaps before being ready last year in Kolten Wong and Roughed Odor. Gray highlighted Kolten Wong as a sleeper way back in December and put his name far out in front of any of the other ‘perts about his upside. Wong and Odor share a fate in that they had been thrust into the 2b spotlight before their hitting approaches were ready, but they may be ready now. Just like Souza, Wong and Odor struggled from an OBP standpoint in 2014, being below the .300 mark, but both the young 2nd baseman are showing some signs of life.
Kolten Wong achieved uber prospect status coming into 2014, after making the big league club and participating in the Cardinals 2013 post season run, Wong ended the year being picked off in game 4. After an unremarkable rookie year in the majors, Wong slugged 3 post season home runs, and added three doubles to boot in an 8 game stretch.
| Name | Year | Level | PA | Run | RBI | HR | AVG | OBP | SB | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong | 2013 | MLB | 62 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.153 | 0.194 | 3 | 3 |
| Age 24 | 2014 | AAA | 80 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0.360 | 0.400 | 6 | 5 |
| 2014 | MLB | 433 | 52 | 42 | 12 | 0.249 | 0.292 | 20 | 21 | |
| 2015 | MLB | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.278 | 0.417 | 1 | 5 |
Wong has been hitting 7th in the order at times this year, and I think it will slow the game down enough for him to achieve the OBP numbers similar to that in the minors. Again, this is a laughable sample size, but if you wait on Wong, the market will catch up or have already closed. The buy low opportunity may be here now. In 2014, Wong took 21 walks total in 433, in 2015, he has 5 already. The OBP will be on the rise in 2015.
| Name | Year | Level | PA | Run | RBI | HR | AVG | OBP | SB | BB | HBP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roughed Odor | 2013 | AA | 138 | 21 | 17 | 6 | 0.279 | 0.314 | 6 | 7 | |
| Age 21 | 2014 | MLB | 417 | 39 | 48 | 9 | 0.259 | 0.297 | 4 | 17 | 5 |
| 2015 | MLB | 29 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0.172 | 0.333 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Roughed Odor didn’t even have an AAA campaign to use as a base line because he was thrust straight out of AA with the sudden injury to Jurickson Profar. Profar is to miss all of 2015 again with injury unfortunately, but it is giving the young Odor a chance to learn on the job. Odor has never really shown an OBP skill, however at 21, and with only 2 year-old AA data to look at, the game may slow for him as well. The 3 BB and 5 HBP in the young season possibly some selectivity not seen before at the plate or looking for his pitch just a tad more (or maybe just some wild pitchers early on). With the power shown last year, Odor could become the type of player that fills your other categories without harming your OBP too much, at a fraction of the cost.
Obviously a tip of the cap to Mookie Betts, I’d break his early season down, but he’s squarely on everyone else’s radar. It is possible by the end of the year, Souza and Pederson come close production wise. I hope these buy lows assist in an OBP or standard leagues, and speaking of Minor League MVP talents, Happy Kris Bryant day this weekend.
