Okay, it depends on your definition of a sleeper. If you define a sleeper as “a player I want on all of my teams and am much higher on than anyone else and I sometimes dream of me and this player on a tropical island sitting under a coconut tree that grows mistletoe during Baby Jesus’s Birthday Season,” then Kolten Wong is a sleeper.  If you define a sleeper as “player that won’t be drafted until the last rounds but will give more value than that,” then Kolten Wong is not a sleeper.  With sleepers, I go both ways like your mom in college.  Hey, she was experimenting, s’cool!  Right now, Kolten Wong (no, his name doesn’t sound right if you just say his last name, i.e., it sounds Wong) is likely being drafted sometime after 100 overall.  Since this is about 70 spots past where I think his fantasy value will end up — yes, I think he’s going to end up as a top 30 fantasy player — Kolten Wong is a huge sleeper.  Am I putting the kavorka before the horse on Kolten Wong by saying I’m going to be much higher on him than anyone else, like I did with Brad Miller, Jedd Gyorko and Josh Rutledge in the past two years?  To that, I say, I have no idea what you’re talking about.  Was I higher on those guys?  I don’t remember.  *looks right, looks left, slowly walks out of the room* Anyway, what can we expect of Kolten Wong for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

For about two years now, I’ve been saying Kolten Wong is a Dustin Pedroia clone.  Call him, Mr. Mini Me Too.  I know what you’re thinking, ‘Yeah, Mr. Mini Me Too.  Okay, everybody meet, Mr. Mini Me Too.”  Everyone isn’t thinking of Clipse (ft. Pharrell)?  Okay, I was.  I’m speaking of Pedroia when Pedroia was good, bee tee dubya.  Just like Pedroia never had huge power or speed, neither does Kolten Wong. He’ll likely max out at 17-20 homers and 20-25 steals.  Just like Pedroia was around a .300 hitter, Kolten Wong should too.  Just like Pedroia was on top of a solid lineup for all of those years, Kolten Wong is likely headed for that same role.  Just like Pedroia needs help opening a jar of pickles, Kolten Wong would too.  Shoot, Kolten Wong at his best could be better than Pedroia at his.  Last year, Wong hit .249 with a 16.4% K-rate.  Not terrific numbers, but also numbers that were all over the map from month to month. One month he had a 11-something strikeout rate, another month a 20-something one.  Why so flaky, C.J. Wilson?  Cause he was a rookie.  He was going through growing pains, Mike Seaver.  In the minor leagues, this was never a problem, and I wouldn’t be surprised if his Ks and poor average stop being a problem as soon as April of 2015.  Also, his BABIP last year of .275 is a tad low for him. In the minors, his BABIP was .334.  Also, he had 20 steals last year in only 113 games, while being caught only 4 times.  I’m not going to prorate those steals over a full season because that could lead one to be slightly more optimistic than they should be, but as a rookie he could’ve stolen 30 bases! (Thank God, I didn’t prorate them and instead just rounded way up.)  There’s pitfalls, Harry.  He’s still young, could struggle and get sent down to the bottom of the lineup again, or worse the minors.  Yet, there’s possible worst case scenarios for every player — right now, I’m picturing my boo facing Mike Fiers.  Wong is one solid season that he is fully capable of from being a top two 2nd baseman for all of fantasy.  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 84/18/60/.278/24 with upside from there.  Yes, I’m going to rank him crazy high too, but no one else is, so he’s sleeper.

 
  1. The Thumb says:
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    Hey Grey,

    I got offered to join a keep-5 forever fantasy league as an expansion team. I’d be the tenth team and the commissioner has said I get the first 5 picks in the draft as compensation for lack of keepers.

    Anyway, seeing that it is no restriction keep forever, how early is too early to draft Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler types? I’m content with not competing the first year or two if it means building a powerhouse.
    Thanks!

    • KC says:
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      @The Thumb:
      I know that you’re asking for Grey, but just wanted to weigh in here. In a ten team league with only five keepers per team, you should not have to wait to compete, even as an expansion team.

      That’s not to say you couldn’t/shouldn’t take Soler as one of your five guys (though I suspect that there are better options). I just think it’s important to realize that 45 total players being kept on other rosters is not an insurmountable situation where you’re forced to enter some extended rebuilding plan. Standings in a ten team league with so few keepers can easily turn over in a single season. Good luck.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Thumb: Agree with KC, you should compete every year and not draft for future seasons…

  2. Big Money Matt says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Do you prefer Olt or Ike Davis in 5×5 dynasty format?

  3. Joe says:
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    Grey,

    who would you rather keep

    Wong as a 14th rd keeper or Garrent richards as a 14th rd keeper.

    I also have

    Arenado -9th rd
    Will Myers a-13th rd
    Wainright- 11th rd
    Teharan- 20th rd

    • Hawk says:
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      @Joe:

      I’d keep Wong over Myers but that’s just me.

      • Joe says:
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        @Hawk: I take it your not a Myers fan? I also take it your saying Richardson over Myers? I’m not opposed to this, I just figure hitting over pitching and Myers was a premium prospect who performed well in year one. I chalk year 2 up to injuries and believe year 3 will be much better. Thoughts

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Joe: Wong over Richards

      • Spyre says:
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        @Grey: would you take Wong 14 over Arenado 9? (I’m trying to decide if I should keep Arenado in the 6th in my league)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d want Arenado

  4. JAdam says:
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    What per-season numbers do you project for Betts vs Wong once fully developed? i.e., who should I keep for the long haul and is it even close?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JAdam: Betts doesn’t have a job

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Say that again

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Seriously

  5. Wilson says:
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    Hi Grey, I got two keepers already, Stanton & Kershaw.
    Need to choose one more from : Rizzo, Buatista, Altuve, Rendon, Desmond

    Kindly pick top two for me, thanks. (5×5 with OBP league)

    • Hawk says:
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      @Wilson:

      Only 3 keepers? You’ve got power and pitching covered. Given that, I’d look at Altuve or Rendon. You can’t really go wrong with that list though

      • Wilson says:
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        @Grey: Thanks Grey and Hawk. I am considering MI as well. So , Is Rendon over Desmond or Altuve next year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Wilson: In your league he is

          • JeF With 1 F says:
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            @Grey: What about in my league

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Likely

  6. Mcgaffer says:
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    Keeper/Trade help!
    Head to head league, keep 6, 12th rnd is the best you can keep someone at. Have two options right now, toss back a guy or take a trade offer sitting out there:
    My guys are:

    FHer-4th
    Hanley-6th
    Altuve-7th
    Seager-8th
    Gomez-12th
    Trout-12th
    Teheran-12th

    If I stay pat, who do I throw back? Seagar? Teheran?
    Or I have been offered Sale for Teheran and Hanley (who is annoying to own in a weekly head to head)

    Input is much appreciated!

    • Hawk says:
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      @Mcgaffer:

      I’d take that Sale deal and RUN.

    • Mcgaffer says:
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      Forgot to mention Sale is in the 12th rnd

    • Ray says:
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      @Mcgaffer:
      keep Seager, drop Teheran

      • Mcgaffer says:
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        Huh, lots of conflicting views here……

        • Swfcdan says:
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          @Mcgaffer: Only one matters!

  7. CH Smoot says:
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    “Sleeper” = a player who is likely to still be around at the very end of an NL-only or AL-only auction draft, and who you think could produce at a value >>> the $1 it will take to get him. Examples: Everth Cabrera with 25 SB in 2009, Luis Valbuena with 12 HR in 2013, Edinson Volquez with 13 W in 2014, Travis Snider with 13 HR in 2014, etc.

    If a guy is clearly going to fetch > $5 at the draft, then he’s not a “sleeper.”

    • Carnac says:
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      Is that the OED definition? I always understood sleepers to be relative.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Carnac: sleepers is a pretty loose term, in my opinion. It might be an overused term at this point but it’s one the industry/readers understand. To me, I’ve always seen it as a term to describe a player who could return value greater than where you drafted them. If I take a guy in the 12th and he gives me 5th round value for the year, what do you call it? I’m being honest, I don’t know what other term you’d use to describe such a situation. 2015 Undervalued player? Eh, no one is gonna read nor understand the term use there.

        • Carnac says:
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          I’ve also heard the term to refer to Grey’s jokes. Also, yes, I agree^^

          • Carnac says:
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            ^that burn was supposed to be tagged

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Like your mom…OOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHH

              • Carnac says:
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                How dare you make fun of my upbringing. And anyway it’s my dad who is tagged: OR-7

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Bearded Carnac is tough!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            When you burn me, do I not need cocoa butter to heal?

            • puigleague choo says:
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              @Grey:
              The Fantasy Master Shylock Lothario

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Tis is I

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @CH Smoot: Technically, it’s a a sofa or chair that converts into a bed…

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        …like where I have to spend the night when my wife finds “Wong fantasy” in my search engine history…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          That’s how you start living the Tuglife!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      So there’s no sleepers for mixed leagues, huh…

      • CH Smoot says:
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        @Grey: An NL-only or AL-only sleeper would be a sleeper in a mixed league with the same number of owners, but not necessarily the other way around. I figured that went without saying, my bad.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, three of your examples wouldn’t be sleepers in mixed leagues, they’d be unownable…

          • CH Smoot says:
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            @Grey: Exactly, and therefore they’d still be around at the end of the draft. That’s the whole point – if you draft a player for $1 and half of the other guys in the league say, “Who the hell is that?” then he’s a sleeper.

            If it turns out he produces nothing, then you were wrong in thinking he’d produce, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t a sleeper – you were just wrong to take him. If he hits 13 HR, (or say, 23 HR in a mixed league) then you’ve got some found money. He doesn’t become a sleeper after the 23 HR – he was a sleeper in the first place, and then he ended up producing.

            So yeah, anyone you’d consider “unownable” is a sleeper – your Aunt Minnie is a sleeper, i.e., a sleeper isn’t a player who produces >>> the $1 you spent to get him, but rather a sleeper is someone who you think WILL produce >>> the $1 you will spend to get him.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Sleepers are relative, they outproduce their relative draft slot… Minnie was only a sleeper in her age 27 season…

              • CH Smoot says:
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                @Grey: And that’s fine – you regard “one who I think is likely to outproduce draft slot” as a sleeper. I call that a “relative bargain,” and regard a sleeper as a relative bargain who can be had at the very end of the draft, hence the term “sleeper” = “most people don’t even know about him.”

                But again, that’s just my perception!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Fair enough, as long as you know where I’m coming from… I don’t think Wong’s a last round sleeper…

                  • CH Smoot says:
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                    @Grey: Me neither, i.e., I think he’s a potential bargain, i.e., he could go for $10-$12 in a draft and end up “earning” $18-$20, etc.

                    In any event, I look forward to any future Razzball article(s) identifying what you call “last round sleepers,” i.e., what I call “sleepers.”

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Ha, sounds good

    • Hawk says:
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      @Grey: @CH Smoot:

      Meh – “Sleeper” is a wishy washy word that means different things to different people. It’s not a 2+2=4 word with an exact definition.

      Your definition works fine. So does Grey’s

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Word

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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      @CH Smoot: if you are gonna quote soething like tat, mat as well say wha eh’s from doode.

  8. Carnac says:
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    It’s ok, Gray, this post was just a moment of weakness. We’ve all been there. But we’re going to have to take away your 11 month token at the next meeting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ve fallen off the wagon big time…

      • Carnac says:
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        Then my return is well-timed. I have, literally, come down from the mountain with a big beard, just as Black Messiah is released.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I thought I saw you, I was heading up the mountain around 3 yesterday.

  9. Sad Keanu says:
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    Would you prefer Wong or Baez to fill your MI slot?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wong

  10. JeF With 1 F says:
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    I am on a serious run of bad luck with my house over the past three weeks:
    1. had to have cesspool and septic tank pumped…$675
    2. Need to replace entire roof including plywood this thursday…$15,000
    3. Last Friday my oil burner had a Puff Back and sent soot throughout my entire house…Covered by insurance but had a restoration crew at my house for the entire weekend and had to stay at my in laws (that might have been the most painful part of all)
    4. Waking up on monday and seeing Grey’s magical posts and it all goes away.
    NOW GIMME SOME WONG

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      re: 2. Ouch! That sucks, man… 3. I just Googled puff back, that looks awful too… Jesus, man, you gotta get out of that log cabin…

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Shit i was thinking about moving into one

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If there was room in my plastic bubble, I’d offer it to the whole 1 F family

          • JeF With 1 F says:
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            @Grey: Just dont let me have Taco Bell before entering

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha!

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Yea the puff back is no joke

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Looks effin (with two Fs) awful

          • JeF With 1 F says:
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            @Grey: HA

  11. JeF With 1 F says:
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    On a side note what are your thoughts on Khris Davis next season

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @JeF With 1 F: and Ozuna

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Love them both, but don’t think they’re gonna be that cheap, especially not Ozuna… Only thing scary with Davis is the Brewers get some stupid ideas about platoons sometimes…

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Yea i agree that scares me too

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hopefully the Brewers realize they have no other options…

      • JeF With 1 F says:
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        @Grey: how would you rank Ozuna Saunders and Davis…My guess would be in that order

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that order

  12. Wake Up says:
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    I used to think that “goes both ways” meant that you liked to be on the top and on the bottom. So, I told everyone, at a party one night, that I liked to go both ways, when I was extremely drunk. Vis to the V, I ended up joining the girl’s softball team!

    PS Collard bone tattoos roule!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… You and Dan Cortese…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Dan Cortese was our catcher…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You don’t want to bat cleanup there!

  13. Alex says:
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    Completely agree with you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cool

  14. Matthew says:
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    Grey, who should I trade starlin for in dynasty?

    Need speed

    Alcides, Segura or Andrus?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      None of them, trade someone else

  15. J-FOH says:
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    These comments were putting me asleep until you got to the bad tattoos. Having quite a few friends who are artists, I can say I have seen some down right bad tattoos. Cover ups is a lucrative business. As I always tell people, you pay for what you get

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Dr. Tattoff’s office is four blocks from me…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: everything is less than four blocks from you

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          HA! Fair enough…

  16. Pun says:
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    Great Clipse reference!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  17. Dave says:
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    Probably not a mid december question so apologize in advance but do appreciate the feedback.

    Torii Hunter and Coco are about equal right?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Fairly close, yeah

  18. slew says:
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    KC seems to be putting a lot of weight on aging players.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup

  19. chris says:
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    Who do you keep as a noncost keeper Wong or pederson? ( arenado is my other keeper, I keep two)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wong

  20. dumpcharge says:
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    Dynasty Keeper question: 12 team h2h league that carries 10 pitchers. I can keep 7 this year and 8 next year. My options are: Encarnacion, Donaldson, Desmond, C.Gomez, Harper, Bryant, Baez, Strasburg, Wainwright, Cueto, Kluber, Lester, Harvey. I appreciate it, thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Encarnacion, Donaldson, Desmond, C.Gomez, Harper, Strasburg, Kluber

Comments are closed.