One Man’s Trash: Yo, Joe! Or No, Joe?

I used to love GI Joe. I watched every episode of the cartoon and had many of the toys and figurines. Oh, the innocence of youth. I watched an old episode for s***s and giggles recently. Man, what a terrible show. I am embarrassed for young Son, but that is life. We must experience crap to appreciate the good. Sometimes we get caught up in the emotions of the present that we get ridden off by the wave. But this Son has matured. Yes, that’s the wife laughing in the background. Oftentimes, we must dig deeper to truly understand if something is worth it or not. Scrolling through the Razzball Player Rater, I saw that Connor Joe of the Pittsburgh Pirates is the 23rd ranked player so far. In NFBC Online Championships, he is rostered on 42 percent of teams. Over at ESPN, he was one of the most added players with a 29.5 percent increase to 37.4. Let’s dig in because…..

Joe is 31 years old, 6-foot, 205 pounds and bats from the right side.

He was selected by the Pirates in the first round of the 2014 MLB draft. Three years later, he was traded to the Atlanta Braves, then to the Los Angeles Dodgers a few months later. The following season, the Cincinnati Reds scooped him up in the Rule 5 draft then traded him to the San Francisco Giants. Joe then was designated for assignment, cleared waivers and returned to the Dodgers. He missed the 2020 season after being diagnosed with testicular cancer then signed with the Colorado Rockies in 2020. Two years later, he was traded to the Pirates. Whew. Quite the journey.

Throughout his minor league career, the walk rate was often in the double digits while the strikeout rate had a wide range from 14 to 23 percent. There were few stolen bases while the power manifested in 2018 with the Dodgers, as the ISO was at least .200 for two seasons.

Joe got his first taste of the big leagues in 2019 with the Giants, but only received 16 plate appearances. It was in 2021 with the Rockies when he was given 211 plate appearances. He hit eight home runs, slashed .285/.379/.469 with a 12.3 percent walk rate, 19.4 percent strikeout rate and .184 ISO. Last season with the Pirates, Joe accrued 472 plate appearances, hit 11 home runs, stole three bases, and slashed .247/.339/.421 with a 10.6 percent walk rate, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and .174 ISO.

In 45 plate appearances so far this season, Joe has hit one home run, stolen a base and slashed .324/.444/541 with a 15.6 percent walk rate, 13.3 percent strikeout rate and .216 ISO. The chase rate is a paltry 15.1 percent while the swinging strike rate is only 6.9 percent.

There are some troubling things, though. The average exit velocity is only 84.3 mph. Last season, it was at 88.9 mph. The maxEV is only 107.4 mph. His career-high is 113.3 mph. The launch angle is at 9.3 degrees after being 16.7 last season. All of that despite pulling the ball a career-high 51.6 percent.

The number that jumps out is the .367 BABIP, so he’s been very fortunate. His career number in 1,211 plate appearances is .306, so some regression is going to come.

But, but, but….the main thing that has brought skepticism in regards to Joe is how the early-season schedule lined up perfectly for him.

Throughout his career, Joe has hit left-handed pitching well (.262 average vs. .243 against RHP). The Pirates faced a lefty in each of the first five games (Luzardo, Puk, Weathers, Rogers and Gore). He batted leadoff in all of those matchups. Joe slashed .348/.444/.522 with an 11.1 percent walk rate, 11.1 percent strikeout rate, and .174 ISO over 27 plate appearances.

Since then, he’s been out of the lineup in three of seven games. When he was playing against right-handed pitching, Joe batted third, fifth, and seventh.

Joe’s numbers are inflated due to good BABIP fortune and facing a ton of lefties. While the dual eligibility at 1B and OF is nice, he’s going to sit often against righties. I’d only utilize in daily leagues against lefties or if the Pirates ever face the Marlins again.