Megadeth is one of the greatest heavy metal bands of all time. The group, which was formed and fronted by lead vocalist/guitarist (and Metallica castoff) Dave Mustaine, quickly made it’s mark on the thrash metal scene in the mid-80s and became one of the most influential bands of the genre. What does this have to do with this week’s most added player, Texas Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar (51.6% owned; +28.4% over the last seven days)? I’m certainly not implying that Profar is into, uh, “pharmaceuticals” like Mustaine was in those days. He either wouldn’t be able to walk onto the field or would quickly pack thirty pounds of muscle onto his frame if that were the case, depending on the substance in question. This is more about their respective career arcs. Megadeth’s third studio album, the conveniently titled So Far, So Good… So What!, was a solid offering. Low budget, raw, and not widely considered to be among their best work, but it was, and is, a bit of an underrated gem. It’s kind of where Profar is at this stage of his career. Young, raw, talented. A player on the rise. The 23-year-old has long been considered one of the top prospects in the game, but injuries and a crowded Texas infield (Odor, Andrus, Beltre) pushed him to the back burner entering this season. However, Odor’s suspension following his recent Floyd Mayweather impression against the Blue Jays opened the door for some unexpected playing time for Profar, and he’s taken advantage of his opportunity. Through 73 plate appearances since May 27th, Profar has produced 13 runs, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .343/.370/.514 slash line. However, as good as he’s looked thus far, his batted ball profile (22.2 IFFB%, 25.9% Soft%) suggests that his current .393 BABIP is likely to drop significantly in the coming weeks. That would make him more of a .275ish hitter than a .300+ one. His power is still developing, and when factoring in his lack of steals (2 career MLB steals; 5 steals over the last two seasons across all levels) and mediocre on-base skills (4.1% BB%), the breakout might have to wait. Megadeth reached their peak with their fourth studio album (the brilliant Rust In Peace), and I believe that Profar is likely a year or two away from reaching his peak as well. In other words, he should be able to help your team in it’s darkest hour, but he’s not quite ready to set the world afire just yet.

Here are a couple of other interesting adds/drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:

Tyler Chatwood: 44.3% owned; +10.7%

All of a sudden, Chatwood seems to have morphed into the most fantasy-relevant Rockies pitcher since… Mike Hampton, maybe? Well, Ubaldo did have that impressive 2-3 year stretch out there a few years ago, so we’ll go with him. Of course, Ubaldo was cranking it up into the high 90s on a regular basis back then, which is not in Chatwood’s repertoire. Chatwood does feature a solid fourseam/sinker/slider combination that is very effective at keeping the ball on the ground (58.7% GB% – 2nd highest among MLB starting pitchers), which is imperative for success in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. His current 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are impressive ratios in any environment, but even moreso considering his circumstances. Those stats have been aided by an extreme amount of luck on the road, however, as his 0.65 ERA and 0.84 WHIP away from home have been supported by a .209 BABIP along with an 89.2% strand rate. Chatwood’s 5.46 K/9 is the sixth lowest rate among 98 qualified starting pitchers as well. His 3.83 FIP and 4.11 xFIP are still somewhat respectable numbers, but they suggest that regression is coming. In 12 team mixed leagues, it would be wise to explore other options. TRASH.

Ian Kennedy: 49.8% owned; (-10%)

Sweet, I get to talk about Kennedy again! Excitement! Just like I wrote about him during the offseason, Kennedy is effective when he is able to keep the ball in the park. That’s the biggest reason why I was optimistic about him after joining the Royals. The pitcher-friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium combined with the elite outfield defense of his new team boded well for a fly ball pitcher like Kennedy. The long ball could come back to hurt him in less friendly pitching environments on the road, however. Second verse, same as the first. In eight road starts, Kennedy has allowed 13 home runs in just 46.1 innings (2.53 HR/9), which has led to an inflated road ERA (5.44). In four home starts, he’s allowed just 1 home run in 24.2 innings (0.36 ERA), resulting in a much more palatable 1.46 ERA. The strikeouts (8.37 K/9) and swings and misses (10.1% SwStr%) make him appealing from a fantasy perspective. Two out of his next three starts are at home, and the other is in New York against the struggling Mets offense. If he was cut loose in your league, Kennedy would make a fine pickup. TREASURE.

 
  1. Grey

    Grey says:
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    You spelled excrement wrong in the Kennedy blurb

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Grey: I did make a typo, but that wasn’t it. Home starts, Grey. Home starts!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        For 2 starts I had him, 12 1/3 IP, 5.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP. I know how to pick dem streamers!

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Grey: Yeah, streaming has been a mixed bag for me too. Mostly a flaming bag of excrement, but somewhat mixed. Isn’t it fun to watch your ratios get crapped on in real time?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yeah, it’s awesome when you plan a few days in advance too… Getting a jump on people, I stash Kennedy for four days leading up to his start vs. the Angels and he looks wretched

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
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              @Grey: Burn a roster spot and have nothing to show for it? Awesome! McCullers has been doing that to me in Perts recently. I know if/when I drop him though, he’ll go off for someone else. Driving me nuts.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah exactly

                • CMUTimmah says:
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                  @Grey: Flaming bag of excrement? HE CALLED THIS SH*T “POO!”

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Haha

  2. MEL says:
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    Do you prefer Kennedy to Shoemaker R.O.S.?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @MEL: I’d give a slight edge to Shoemaker there. He’s been lights out recently.

  3. Turd Ferguson says:
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    Grey’s side here. Kennedy is trash. Effed me last time out. He’s maddening, and the Royals offense sucks this year. He may be fine in daily leagues where you can pick and choose when to use him a bit more, but in weekly leagues he’ll just burn a hole through your bench spots. How about that ONE strikeout gem in Chicago last week? Before last night’s offensive outburst by the White Sox they’ve been anemic at U.S. Cellular Field and they lit him up.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Turd Ferguson: Sure, I can understand if you’re down on him because he burned you. Eight of his twelve starts have been on the road though, and his two worst starts (6/10 @ CWS and 5/12 @ NYY) came in good power parks. Allowed seven of his fourteen homers in those two starts alone. Struck out at least six hitters in nine starts. If you avoid the bad road matchups, he’s quite useful.

  4. Be like Maik says:
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    was offered goldy for strausberg in a 10 team OBP roto league (1400 inning limit)…My SP are Kershaw, Straus, Odorizzi, Duffy, McCullers and Hendricks (VV on the DL). I’m kind of afraid it will leave me thin, but GOLDY.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Be like Maik: In a 10 team league, I’d be inclined to go with the best player in most deals. Your pitching looks plenty good without Stras, and there should be streaming options on the wire. Take Goldy.

      • Be like Maik says:
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        @Big Magoo: thanks man. I’m also 1st or 2nd in almost all pitching categories, so hopefully I can stream myself through the season.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Be like Maik: Nice. Good luck!

  5. CMUTimmah says:
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    Dropped Stroman to pick up Shoe (yeah, it made me sick too at the time)

    Stroman thows a nice game today.

    Buyers remorse. Shoe or Stroman ROS?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @CMUTimmah: Both? Tough one. Slight edge to Stroman long term. Try to ride Shoe’s hot streak if you have room though.

  6. J-FOH says:
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    I saw the writing on the wall with profar too even though I’m riding him for now. I still agree with you on kennedy. The haters want set it and forget it arms but it never works that way. Chatwood will be deadwood by the break

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @J-FOH: There’s no reason not to use Profar right now. I just think his batted ball luck will neutralize at some point. He could always pick up his power production too, but I think he’s a year or two away. Agreed on Kennedy and Chatwood.

  7. Jack florida says:
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    Great stuff as usual
    Would you drop either Addison russell or tim Anderson for Kennedy in a Rcl league?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Jack florida: Thanks! If one of those players is a bench bat, then sure. I’d lose Anderson unless you’re hurting in speed.

  8. Will says:
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    Stanton and Aaron Sanchez for Cutch and Jeanmar Gomez?

    I tried for Colome and he countered with either

    Stanton for Cutch

    or

    Gomez instead of Colome

    Thoughts?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Will: It depends. If your team is doing well, I’d hold Cutch. If you’re looking to make up ground, take the chance on Stanton’s upside. I wouldn’t look to acquire Sanchez now in a redraft. He’ll be skipped/shut down in September due to innings limitations.

      • Will says:
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        @Big Magoo: I currently have Stanton.

        I accepted his trade of Stanton and Sanchez for Cutch and Gomez. I need saves and I figured I could replace Sanchez with Paxton off of waivers.

  9. HelpMoiBBGod says:
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    Who do you like ROS? Profar or Castro?
    12t H2H 6×6
    Thnx

    • HelpMoiBBGod says:
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      @HelpMoiBBGod:
      Also between Thompson and TJoseph who will produce more?

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @HelpMoiBBGod: Depends on needs. Thompson in a vacuum. He’ll provide more balanced production. Joseph if you’re hurting for power and/or need a CI though.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @HelpMoiBBGod: I’d go with Profar over Castro. More upside.

  10. danny almonte says:
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    I have Wheeler stashed on my DL, i see hes nearing rehab games. What am i looking at here? A solid, Sp3, sp4? Or wasting my time with a streamer?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @danny almonte: Might as well wait and see at this point! I’m not concerned about his velocity (though it’s good to keep an eye on that). It’s his control that might be an issue. That’s usually the last thing to return for a pitcher off of TJS, and his wasn’t that great to begin with pre-surgery. Definitely has upside though, so hang onto him for now.

  11. Matt says:
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    Been considering cutting Kennedy, who I’ve rostered all year, in recent days but your article is enough for me to lengthen my leash on him a bit.

    The only reason I didn’t cut him after his last start is because my league is K/9, and his K/IP does provide a decent boost there…

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Matt: At least hold him for tomorrow’s start vs the Indians. Keep him on the bench if you want. If he gets blown up, drop him then. If not, his next two starts are solid matchups.

  12. Scooter G says:
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    Kennedy, rodon, paxson, desclafani, shoemaker are all available in my 10 team league. Who is the biggest treasure in your opinion?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Scooter G: Depends on matchups. Shoemaker is pitching the best out of that group at the moment, and DeSclafani faces the Braves in Atlanta next, so I’d go with those two.

  13. JimmyJackJames says:
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    In a 15 team roto, do you guys see any point in stashing Perkins on the DL at this point? I read today he said his shoulder hurts if he throws at 50% off a mound and no seeking a 3rd opinion. As a new Estevez owner, make more sense to stash Ottavino at this point? I’m saves desperate.

    Thanks!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @JimmyJackJames: Yeah, I’d definitely stash Ottavino over Perkins at this point.

  14. Dr. Sauce says:
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    Hey Big Magoo,
    Hoping for a little trade assistance;
    League Context – Head to head, 5X5, ESPN, 6 man keeper (no limits)
    Trade Details – My Mazara, Profar and Rodon for his Bautista, Archer and Lackey
    Other information – I’m in 1st place and have plenty of keepers (Betts, Bryant, Goldy, Rizzo, Stanton, Cutch, Odor, Story, Yellich, Syndergaard) as much as I like both Mazara and Profar they are not keepers for me.
    The other team is weak; currently last place, old and terrible keepers. Just looking for some feedback as I have a difficult time gauging whether the trade is fair to both sides. Thoughts??

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Dr. Sauce: It’s pretty fair. Gives you a boost for this season, and would give the other owner at least one keeper upgrade going forward.

  15. luvdarooks says:
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    NL $260 11 team – 10 keeper with 14 starters & 38 man roster so ITS DEEP W/ HIGH INFLATION. Minors do not count against the $260!

    I need pitching and can give up a little more on the hitting side—Have a man crush on bryant but should I let him go to get Kershaw??

    In the middle in BA
    HR- 113 103 96 ME(91) 90 82 74
    R ( in second by 30)
    Rbi (in 3rd by 50)
    Addind Kershaw would increase my P pts by at least 8

    I have been offered
    Kershaw 41
    loney 10
    segura 22
    FOR
    Taapia 5
    Delvyn Perez 2
    Alexi Ramirez 12
    F Wall 5
    Bryant 10 I THINK THIS IS TOO MUCH>>>>> what do you think? IF he declines the next offer I show below
    is this one ok do do?

    I’D RATHER GIVE UP

    Forrest Wall 5
    Delvin Perez 2
    Rio Ruiz 10
    Kris Bryant 10
    I GET

    Clayton Kershaw 41
    John Jaso 7
    I also want Baez ( who will be a keeper next year at 16) bit its unlikely

    • luvdarooks says:
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      PS MINORS DO NOT GET THE $5 raise yearly

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @luvdarooks: Kershaw’s pretty expensive there (and it sounds like he’ll be even more so), but if you’re a contender, he’s probably worth it. Obviously a huge difference maker. I’d try to keep Tapia though, especially considering the cheap Bryant that you’d be giving up. I definitely like your proposed deal better.

  16. Goodwill Hunting 2: Hunting Season says:
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    even if you didn’t like megadeth, they had the BEST shirts.

  17. 1st Place Team says:
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    I recently pulled off a nice trade, but I’d like the opinion of others.
    14 team league. I’m in 1st by a wide margin.
    I traded Chris Davis and Jean Segura and an 8th pick for Profar and a 2nd. I saw Adam Duvall was waiting on the FA market so I picked him up in place of Davis.
    I can keep 3 players, them being Trout Arenado Arietta and Strasburg if I wanted to. So Davis was definitely worth trading since I’m not going to keep him.
    Thoughts on this trade and how I played it? Davis BA was killing me and although I like him the bad sometimes outweigh the good.

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