Edwin Diaz is an amazing pitcher. His fastball averages 98 mph, while his changeup is faster (94 mph) than the fastball of most MLB pitchers. The swinging strike rate was an absurd 18.9% last season while the K/9 was 15.22! He saved 57 games for the Seattle Mariners last season. Yet, he’s getting waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay overdrafted this year. The current NFBC ADP is the 48th overall player!! That’s insanity. Since you read Razzball, you all know about SAGNOF, but just in case ED was giving you some tingly Viagra sensations, let me stop the flow of blood and get some more oxygen into the brain. First of all, the 2018 season for ED was one of epic historic proportions. Only one other pitcher in the history of MLB, Francisco Rodriguez in 2008, posted a season with more saves when he notched 62. There have only been 17 instances in which a reliever notched at least 50 saves in one season. Only Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne were able to be on the list twice. So, the chances of ED replicating last season are very slim. If that didn’t convince you, how about the fact that he got traded from Seattle to the New York Mets. Last season, Seattle produced the most save opportunites in the league with 81. The Mets were 21st with only 59 save opportunities. In 2017, Seattle produced 65 SVO, while the Mets produced 54. Unless you think the Mets will be over .500 this season, fewer than 60 save chances seem to be in the works. That’s a far cry from the 81 ED had last year. Rudy has ED down for 65 innings and 35 saves. Rudy also has Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman all down for 35 saves. ADP for those guys are 61, 74, 68, and 77 respectively. Raisel Iglesias, who is projected for 30 saves, has an ADP of 102. TRASH
Zach Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. In 2016, he was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his throwing arm, which shut him down for the year. In 2017, Wheeler was placed on the disabled twice for biceps tendinitis and a stress reaction. He was again shut down for the season. After essentially a two-year hiatus, Wheeler struggled in the first half of 2018, as he allowed a .304 wOBA, 11 homers, and had an 8.7% walk rate. In the second half, the wOBA was .220, he only allowed 3 homers, the walk rate decreased to 5.3%, and the strikeout rate increased from 23% to 25.7%. Wheeler boasts a mid-to-upper 90s fastball with a slider, curve, and change. The arsenal to dominate is present. It’s all about the health, so the 182.1 innings he logged last season is encouraging. Currently, Wheeler is the 93rd player off the board in NFBC drafts and the 35th pitcher. The injury risk is baked in. The upside is immense. TREASURE
Max Muncy is being drafted as the 108th player according to NFBC. I get it, as he was often platooned last season. He ended the season with only 481 plate appearances. There’s been chatter that the Dodgers may platoon less this season, though. If that’s the case, there is a chance that Muncy could soak up the majority of at-bats at first base. While Muncy was better against righties last season, and 27 of his 35 homers came against them, he was actually decent against lefties. The OPS was .891, which pales in comparison to the 1.001 number he posted against righties, but it’s still a very good number. Yes, the walk rate (12.6%) was down while the strikeout rate (30.3%) was up against lefties, but he was still able to maintain a .255 average and .275 ISO against them. TREASURE
