So far I have rolled out the entire infield minus shortstop in our OBP series, and it appears there is no avoiding it anymore. As you might have expected, the average “spread” for qualified shortstops in 2015 was the worst of all positions analyzed thus far- sitting at .050. And while that total might not seem too horrible in its own, the names after the top five drafted are what can make a man lose his mind. I mean really, this position is brutal.

How bad is it…be honest? Is it Windows Vista bad? It’s not iPhone 4 bad…is it? Fu**. Don’t tell me this is Zune bad?!

I’m sorry boys…. It’s Apple Maps bad.

And here you have it…my risers, fallers, targets, and sleepers at the shortstop position!

 (Keep in mind, the format is 12-team 5×5 OBP)

The Risers:

PLAYER TEAM AB R HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP Spread
Corey Seager LAD 98 17 4 17 2 14 0.337 0.425 0.088
Ruben Tejada NYM 360 36 3 28 2 38 0.261 0.338 0.077
Jose Ramirez CLE 315 50 6 27 10 32 0.219 0.291 0.072
Brad Miller SEA 438 44 11 46 13 47 0.258 0.329 0.071
Stephen Drew NYY 383 43 17 44 0 37 0.201 0.271 0.070
Carlos Correa HOU 387 52 22 68 14 40 0.279 0.345 0.066
Brandon Crawford SF 507 65 21 84 6 39 0.256 0.321 0.065
Addison Russell CHC 475 60 13 54 4 42 0.242 0.307 0.065
Jimmy Rollins LAD 517 71 13 41 12 44 0.224 0.285 0.061
Jhonny Peralta STL 579 64 17 71 1 50 0.275 0.334 0.059
Troy Tulowitzki TOR/COL 486 77 17 70 1 38 0.280 0.337 0.057
Ian Desmond WSH 583 69 19 62 13 45 0.233 0.290 0.057
Andrelton Simmons ATL 535 60 4 44 5 39 0.265 0.321 0.056
Alexi Amarista SD 324 28 3 30 5 24 0.204 0.257 0.053
Didi Gregorius NYY 525 57 9 56 5 33 0.265 0.318 0.053

Corey Seager (6th Round, OBP Value= 5th)

I love all Seagers. In a perfect world I can rosterbate to my team with an infield of Kyle and Corey while listening to Bob Seager’s “Night Moves”. And with all due respect to Bob, Corey Seager’s time is now, and he’s got more than tonight.

In Corey Seager’s first year, the Dodgers prized possession did nothing but show the league that he is MLB-ready as he posted a righteous .425 OBP in 113 PA. And while that OBP was even out of whack compared to his minor league range of .370, he definitely is someone to look out for in your 5×5 OBP leagues.

And although Seager did suffer a knee injury that has him dropping a little bit in the ranks, it might actually be a good thing for upcoming drafters as his price tag becomes slightly more reasonable. I see big things from Corey in 2016 and my expectation is that he is a top three shortstop at year’s end. Use your 5th rounder in exchange for a 18-80-.360 slash line and enjoy.

 

The Fallers:

PLAYER TEAM AB R HR RBI SB BB AVG OBP Spread
Jean Segura MIL 560 57 6 50 25 13 0.257 0.281 0.024
Erick Aybar LAA 597 74 3 44 15 25 0.270 0.301 0.031
Starlin Castro CHC 547 52 11 69 5 21 0.265 0.296 0.031
Wilmer Flores NYM 483 55 16 59 0 19 0.263 0.295 0.032
Adeiny Hechavarria MIA 470 54 5 48 7 23 0.281 0.315 0.034
J.J. Hardy BAL 411 45 8 37 0 20 0.219 0.253 0.034
Xander Bogaerts BOS 613 84 7 81 10 32 0.320 0.355 0.035
Eugenio Suarez CIN 372 42 13 48 4 17 0.280 0.315 0.035
Jose Reyes TOR/COL 481 57 7 53 24 26 0.274 0.310 0.036
Alcides Escobar KC 612 76 3 47 17 26 0.257 0.293 0.036
Alexei Ramirez CHW 583 54 10 62 17 31 0.249 0.285 0.036
Freddy Galvis PHI 559 63 7 50 10 30 0.263 0.302 0.039
Francisco Lindor CLE 390 50 12 51 12 27 0.313 0.353 0.040
Jose Iglesias DET 416 44 2 23 11 25 0.300 0.347 0.047
Eduardo Escobar MIN 409 48 12 58 2 28 0.262 0.309 0.047

Starlin Castro (15th Round, OBP Value= 17th)

I first want to say that I briefly thought about putting Xander Bogaerts here, but I freaking love Bogaerts in 2016. All signs point to a breakout campaign for him in this upcoming year and I couldn’t fathom having him as a “faller” even though he met the criteria. So after not much deliberation, I moved on to another youngster in Starlin Castro (and honestly was surprised he still was only 26).

The change of scenery and the age of Castro are two things that you can try and turn into a positive. But just like me, Castro has shown no signs of self-improvement over the last four years. He does have some weird every-other year type of thing going on with his stats though, that would mean 2016 could be set up to be okay? (Now THIS is called analysis…!)

 Year G AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP Spread
2012  162 646 78 14 78 25 0.283 0.323 0.040
2013 161 666 59 10 44 9 0.245 0.284 0.039
2014  134 528 58 14 65 4 0.292 0.339 0.047
2015 151 547 52 11 69 5 0.265 0.296 0.031

So there you have it! Castro will hit 14 HRs, 65 RBIs, and have an OBP around .320. The steals are the kicker here, and with the Yankees running the 5th least in baseball last year (while the Cubs stole 9th most), I wouldn’t expect Castro’s numbers to go back to the 2012 years. And even though that may have just been the worst “Faller” piece thus far, expect a below average spread around .040 and draft him a round later than planned.

The Target:

Addison Russell (11th Round, OBP Value= 10th)

Maybe it is because we both have feminine first names, but I have a soft spot for my bae Addison Russell. In fact, that is my first time ever using the word “bae” and it really felt right when referring to him.

Just last year, Addison Russell was ranked the number three overall prospect by Baseball America behind just Kris Bryant and Byron Buxton, and directly ahead of shortstops Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. People seem to forget that not only was Russell touted as a better prospect than all of the big name shortstops, but he was just 21 years of age in 2015. And although there were some bad things to take away from his 2015 campaign…there was some good too. And he was only 21! (Did I say that already?)

While everyone has their thumbs up Mookie Bett’s ass, keep in mind that Addison Russell’s BB% was higher in 2015 (as he had a spread of .065 compared to Mookie’s .050). If Addison increases his AVG from .242 to .260 (which I think he should), he definitely has a shot to have an OBP touching .330. Don’t be surprised to see a big breakout from this young pup that might have Addison hitting 20+ bombs and stealing 12+ bags. There is huge upside here that should put him on your must-draft list in 2016.

The Sleeper:

Brad Miller (23rd Round, OBP Value= 20th)

Let me preface this by saying I wasn’t all that thrilled about the sleeper options at SS, which is why I personally wouldn’t wait til the late picks to grab one. However, if you do find yourself missing out…one guy to take a gander at is Brad Miller. And even though his name is as much of a snoozer as this position in entirety, Brad Miller gives you a cheap combination of pop and speed. At 11 dingers and 13 swipes in 2015, he is kind of like a poor man’s Logan Forsythe. And if that doesn’t get you excited, I don’t know what will!

But in all seriousness, if Miller gets 600 PAs his numbers should look something like 14-14-.330 which is not too shabby for a late flier that hopefully is your MI (at most). Keep in mind that he is only 26, so Miller does have some breakout potential that gives you some minor upside in the late rounds. Take a shot at him in the 20th if you need a MI, but please for the love of god don’t bank on him as a starting SS.

Boy… am I happy to be done with this position.

 
  1. Ronald Jeremy says:
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    Did I miss something, or does Marcus Semien no longer exist?

    • Hodysseus

      Jesse Hodes says:
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      @Ronald Jeremy: He exists, but is not a riser or faller. He is right in the middle (but closer to risers).

      • GFY250 says:
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        @Jesse Hodes: True, but don’t you think he has more upside than Miller and drafted after pick 200?

        • Hodysseus

          Hodysseus says:
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          @GFY250: You can definitely make an argument. However, Miller is going about a round later and his stats were nearly identical to Semien’s last year minus a couple HRs, but in about 100 fewer ABs. His spread just happens to be rather higher. I think they are both good choices but Miller’s value increases more in OBP.

  2. Gibby says:
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    Trade question. 6 keeper roto H2H league. I have Odor, Turner, Arcia and Segura at SS/2B. I have gotten an offer for Odor. Id give Odor and Segura and get Bogaerts and Moncada.

    Went into the draft keeping Abreu, Franco, Jd Martinez, Noah, Price, Harvey.

    Why do I love Odor more than Xander?!?!

    HELP!!!!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Gibby: Because Xander is better than Odor. Xander is undervalued in 2016 while Odor is overvalued. Make the deal.

      I expect Xander to increase power AND speed numbers. Going bold on him and saying he hits 16 HRs with 15 SBs.

  3. The Wombat says:
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    Otis ate Marcus Semien

  4. Roll of SAGNOF, Hear my Cry says:
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    got a middle infield of Castro, Segura, and Schoop in an OBP league

    oh well!

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Roll of SAGNOF, Hear my Cry: I have Schoop as well. If there is a position to miss out on OBP, it would be MI though, as rostering a guy with low OBP/Spread for this position doesn’t hurt you as bad as others.

  5. TTRA1N says:
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    Drafted Buxton over A. Russell in my keeper. Im also stuck with Miller as my starting SS smh. I f’d up huh?

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @TTRA1N: Yes I think so. But that can all be forgotten if Buxton blows up!

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @TTRA1N: unless you go by the very BA lists he quoted above, in which case buxton was and always was higher.

      • Hodysseus

        Hodysseus says:
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        @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: I do think that long term, Buxton has more upside than Russell, I was more talking this year. And have to keep in mind Russell is a SS in which it appears @TTRAIN needs.

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Hodysseus: we have no idea what level of OF he’d have had he taken russell over buxton though to be sure what appears to be so. we know he ended up with miller over russell, for complete picture we need value difference between buxton and unknown OF he would’ve gotten. it does appear russell will have more this year value when comparing SS to SS than buxton will comparing OF to OF.

  6. Fenris-77

    Fenris-77 says:
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    No Semien on that list? He had a .257 – .310 Avg-OPB split last year and I imagine this year should look similar. A potential 20-20 guy with a 0.05 spread who’s ranked at 229 by Yahoo seems like he should be here somewhere.

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Fenris-77: See above comments.

  7. corey brooks says:
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    how is Jhonny Peralta a riser, I thought he was out for 3 months with a thumb injury.?

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @corey brooks: He is. The risers are just showing which players see an increase in the category switch from AVG to OBP by using the “Spread” of their 2015 OBP- AVG.

  8. corey brooks says:
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    @hodysseus how is Jhonny Peralta a riser, I thought he was out for 3 months with a thumb injury.?

    • For an Armenianless vacation come to Akron says:
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      @corey brooks: rising has nothing to do with playing time issues.

  9. Bentley bangers says:
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    Hey there. Almost there! Opening day. Quick question. In a vacuum. Storen for Severino. Who would u choose?

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Bentley bangers: Closer job in Toronto appears to be Storens to lose, so I would lean Storen.

      • Hodysseus

        Hodysseus says:
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        @Hodysseus: Hope you didn’t listen to me here. Osuna named closer even though all experts thought it was Storen”s job. WHOOPS

  10. Moneyball says:
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    Storen vs Severino has nothing to do with shortstops >:-|

    Anyway let me prose you a narrative about a certain shortstop. I call it Trevor’s Parable: The Tulo-who-ski of not Troy.

    Jump on this Story!

    • For an Armenianless vacation come to Akron says:
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      @Moneyball: who said storen vs severino had anything to do with SS?

  11. OJ Simpson says:
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    Another great read.
    Unfortunately I will be relying on miller as my SS, although I’m not too worried as my hitting projects well (in my book at least)

    S Perez
    Freeman
    Odor
    Miller
    Franco
    Blackmon
    Heyward
    McCutchen
    Sano

    And my bench being duda Buxton and deshields.
    Real bummer our league only plays one utility.

    Can’t wait to see your OF post

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @OJ Simpson: There inevitably is always gonna be some minor hole and there could be worse. Like your squad and actually have Franco, Heyward, Sano, Buxton all on my roster as well. Any way to trade Freeman for a Xander/Seager type and play Duda at 1B, Xander/Seager at SS?

      • OJ Simpson says:
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        @Hodysseus: I can try, although it’ll be tough because we’re in a keeper and seager was kept at the end of last season and has 20th, 18th and 16th round value for the next 3 years ( we do a format where you can keep for 3 years after the drafted or pick up year) while I drafted freeman this year. Boagaerts might be more reachable but still has great value because he was kept at i believe 12th round value this year. I’ll let you know though.

        • Hodysseus

          Hodysseus says:
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          @OJ Simpson: Ah I got you. Well hey at least you have some depth.

  12. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    Just drafted my first OBP team in a few years. Thoughts?

    10 team h2h OBP budget for moves

    C Mesoraco
    1B Rizzo
    2B Odor
    3B Franco
    SS Lindor
    OF Betts
    OF JD Martinez
    OF J Upton
    UTL Belt
    BN Park

    SP: Archer, Kuechel, Wacha, Stroman, CMart, Iglesias, Corbin, Severino, Aaron Sanchez

    RP: McGee, Storen, Jeffress

  13. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    you might be aware BA ranks VERY much defensive heavy, right?

    • Hodysseus

      Hodysseus says:
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      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Russell by the tools was 50 defense, 50 arm. Correa was 55 defense, 70 arm, and Seager was 60-60. Not sure that defense is why Addison was ranked higher…

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Hodysseus: guess that wasn’t why. they do often place other guys much worse hitters than all three of these quite high though. also why reed is much lower on some prospect lists, since he plays the most useless defensive position

  14. dave reinhart says:
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    is storen or osuna closing? have jays decided?

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