Welcome to Week 2 or better known as Overreaction Theater. This is the time when every pitch, hit, strikeout and blown save is scrutinized more than a teenager looking in the mirror at pimples. R-E-L-A-X. Baseball is a loooooooong season. So, sit back, consume what you need to, and enjoy the maestro for a few minutes. You good? Chill, now? If you are not, then you must be a cyborg from the future and I must find and destroy you. Speaking of cyborgs, no Week 2 article can be published unless a certain Trevor Story is discussed. Is he real? Is he robot? Can Skynet be hacked? Well, we have had a ManBearPuig and El Oso Blanco so… I guess anything is possible.
You don’t need me to regurgitate his ridiculous stat line. What you are here for is my opinion on his future prospects. We know the power is real, as he had an ISO over .200 at every level in the minors. Here’s a breakdown of his six major league home runs:
- Off RHP Zack Greinke. Fastball away and Story crushed it to right field.
- Off RHP Greinke. Slider on the outside corner. Story crushes it to left.
- Off RHP Shelby Miller. Story crushes a hanging curveball to left field.
- Off LHP Patrick Corbin. Story crushes a fastball over the middle to left center.
- Off RHP Colin Rea. Curveball down and middle crushed to left.
- Off LHP Ryan Buchter. A cutter way inside that Story mashes to left. This one was amazing.
Very impressive as he hit both fastballs and off-speed pitches. His plate coverage was excellent showing the ability to drive the ball out of the park on both inside and outside pitches. Now, here is where I become Debby Downer. He hasn’t drawn a walk yet. In Triple-A last season, he walked 5.8% of the time. Steamer has him projected for a 7.2% rate and 26.7% strikeout rate for 2016. Why is this important? Because pitchers are going to adjust now. Those pitches on or around the plate will be few and far between. He’s going to start seeing different pitches and sequencing. I’d guess that teams will want to see how he handles high heat and junk away. I’m thinking a big adjustment period is on the horizon. How does he handle the adjustment? If his minor league numbers are any indication, it may start getting rough soon. If he starts to struggle and Jose Reyes returns, it’s not totally out of the question to see Story in Triple-A soon.
Jean Segura continues to be a baller leading off for the Diamondbacks. 11 hits, three home runs and two stolen bases so far in 2016. I need to revise my outlook about Segura from last week’s No Whammies!, as I completely overlooked something huge. Back to the cyborg theme. We often view baseball players as robots and rely strictly on the stats to form an opinion. We forget that baseball players are in fact human beings, and not numbers on a stock exchange. Segura lost his 9-month-old son in 2014. I have a 4-year-old and 6-month-old baby. I cannot imagine the emotional devastation that must’ve caused. I’d be a complete wreck. He had a great 2013, so I’m willing to overlook the past two years. Those that drafted Segura at a discount, congrats.
Tyler White is another amendment I need to make from last week. I still think A.J. Reed will take over first base duties at some point this year. With that said, it looks like the Astros will find a way to get White’s bat into the lineup, most probably at DH with the possibility of 3B. Things will get interesting when Evan Gattis returns. I’m still skeptical at the power, but his approach at the plate is really fun to watch. He has excellent control of the strike zone and is very disciplined. He swings at less that 20% of pitches outside the strike zone, which places him in the top 30-40 hitters in the game. With the free swinging ways of many of the Astros’ players, having a bat like White in the lineup provides much needed balance and discipline.
Brock Holt – Wicked pissa! Has anyone ever seen Brock Holt and Matt Damon in the same room at the same time?
This could explain a lot. Holt was not able to play everyday for the Red Sox in the past because he had to film the Bourne movies. He finished with the Jason Bourne movie in the offseason, so he’s good to fully dedicate himself to the baseball thing. The super-utility player is now the starting left fielder for the Red Sawx. Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. seem to be the platoon in centerfield. Holt is hitting the ball hard right now (45.5% hard rate), 54.5% line drive rate and his HR/FB is 100%. Wicked good. Obviously, the HR/FB will come down, but he’s got a little pop in that stick of his. Holt won’t carry a fantasy team, but he will chip in at every category and be the glue that keeps the ship afloat.
Yasiel Puig – Part man, part bear, part Puig. We’ve seen glimpses of his potential but we’ve also seen the immaturity on and off the field with Puig. Puig lost 25 pounds in the off season and has been more engaged with teammates and new manager Dave Roberts. The results have been great, as he has more walks than strikeouts and is not chasing as many pitches outside of the strike zone. His 56.3% hard contact rate places him 15th among hitters. The one negative that I see is that he’s hitting a ton of ground balls (62.5%) and only 31.3% fly balls. With that said, the physical and mental game seem to be in harmony this year. Puigs can fly!
Mat Latos – Threw a gem last week: 1 hit, 1 walk and 2 strikeouts in 6 innings pitched. Don’t let him reel you in. His fastball velocity was in the high-80’s. I’m still probably scarred by having to witness his atrociousness for the Dodgers last year: 18 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings for a 6.66 ERA. Maybe it’s the Mark of the Beast. Anyways, Latos has not been good since….what is considered good?
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
You can reach Son on the Twitter @Stan_Son.
