For a few years, I talked about how Mike Minor or Kris Medlen were gonna be my last round starter flyer in all leagues. ¬†Never really worked out. ¬†Sure, I snatched Medlen off waivers last year when he needed to be, but for a few years they were drafted and dropped numerous times before they rewarded fantasy owners. ¬†I don’t tell you this to remain modest. ¬†Does my mustache make me look like a man of modesty? ¬†I tell you this so you know where I’m coming from when I say I’m going to draft Matt Harvey in every league. ¬†At some point, he’s going to be a top starter. ¬†It may not be this year, it may not be next year, but at some point he’ll be there. ¬†You can look at this as a Matt Harvey sleeper post, a rookie outlook post or simply a heads up that I need to get me some of this young brother, in the non-biblical way, unless there’s a clergyman reading and he gives me his Razzblessing. ¬†Speaking of which, do we have any priest or rabbi readers? ¬†I could see a Sunday sermon including SAGNOF (Satan Ain’t Got No Face) and how Jesus Montero was a fanny pick. ¬†In Harvey’s short-stint in the majors, he did some bedazzling work on fantasy owners’ jean jackets. ¬†A 10+ K-rate and a 2.73 ERA in 59 1/3 innings.¬† Awesome called and said he wishes he was more descriptive because that doesn’t do Harvey justice. ¬†So what can we expect of Matt Harvey for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
His minor league numbers show evidence that the Ks weren’t a fluke, but a 10+ K-rate is the absolute ceiling. ¬†In Triple-A, he topped out at just over nine Ks per nine innings. ¬†He hits 97 MPH with regularity and averages a 94.7 MPH fastball. ¬† Over the course of the season, that would put his fastball velocity third in the majors tied with Verlander and just behind David Price and Jeff Samardzija. ¬†Just behind him are guys like Max Scherzer, Matt Moore, Jordan Zimmermann… You starting to see the picture here? (The homophone works there too.) ¬†Like a few other guys on that list, BBs unravel Harvey from time to time. ¬†Last year, he had a 3.94 BB/9. No pitcher with a walk rate that poor had an ERA below 3.61 last year and many were way above it. ¬†Guys like Masterson (3.84 BB/9) had an xFIP of 4.15, but his Ks were nowhere near Harvey’s talent level. ¬†Yu Darvish was near Harvey for Ks and BBs and had a 3.52 xFIP; Gio showed a bit more control with Ks and had a 3.38 xFIP, but this is no exact science. ¬†If Harvey maintains a 10+ K-rate over a full season, he’s ownable in all leagues. ¬†If he falls to a 9+ K-rate like in Triple-A (more likely), he’s going to need to cut his walks a hair to be ownable in all mixed leagues.¬† For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 10-7/3.92/1.34/192 in 188 innings. ¬† That’s a roller coaster fifth starter, but definitely someone with immense upside and worthy of a late-round gamble in all leagues.