When I think about people saying they’re going to draft Matt Carpenter, I think of the old hypnotist’s trick.  If you’re going to draft Matt Carpenter, I want you to do this:  close your eyes and pretend to be shaking a salt shaker into your mouth.  Now, incredibly, you will taste salt.  There’s no easier schmohawk post for me than a guy who has a career year at 32 years of age or older.  On the other hand, 31 years old?  Give me some!  (Kidding, please don’t ask why 31 is okay.)  Does anyone drafting Carpenter expect to get the same again what he did last year?  I can count the guys who peak in their thirties, who are not on ‘roids, on one hand and that’s a hand of a high school wood shop teacher.  “Today, I’m going to show you how to make your mother a chair–Okay, don’t be alarmed, it only looks worse than it is.  Place my thumb in your ice-cold Fanta, and call me a Lyft.”  *blood from wound sprays teacher in his face* “Don’t give the substitute a hard time, I could be out for a few.”  So, last year Matt Carpenter went 111/36/81/.257/4, which is so goofy you can put that stat line from Carpenter on LinkedIn and get hired to don a Goofy costume at Disney World, sight unseen.  “Yo, moms, I just got hired by Disney.”  “Bravo, Salvatore!  I-a didn’t even know-a you applied.”  “I didn’t, I just wrote down Matt Carpenter’s stat line on LinkedIn.”  By the by, I wanna get a giant mastiff and name it, Salvatore Glands.  Anyway, what can we expect from Matt Carpenter for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

First off, his career high in homers prior to last year was 28.  So, did he don wings and become a supermodel at the Launch Angels fashion show in downtown Schenectady?  He had an insane launch angle of 20.3 degrees, and that was the 2nd highest in the majors last year.  This is nothing new for him.  He had a 21.4 degree launch angle in 2017, and that was the absolute highest that year.  If he swings and misses, he makes a perfect 360-degree circle in the air, that’s just how he swings.  Dot dot dot.  Did not don wings.  So, it’s not like when he hit 36 homers last year he did anything different.  In 2017, his average home run distance was 400.  Last year it was 389 feet.  Yo, Salvatore Glands, can I get a woof?  What happens if he shaves another 11 feet off his average homer distance?  He’s going to be hitting 378-foot outs. That’s another issue.  He hits a ton of fly balls (as you can imagine from his launch angle).  If he’s not hitting the ball out, he could hit .220.  “.220?”  You ask to no one in particular with skepticism.  Well, let’s see, he hit .155 last April; he hit .170 last September and, the months when he was hitting .320 (June/July), his BABIP was .340.  It shouldn’t come as a surprise to you that if he’s hitting a lot of fly balls, his BABIP is going to be closer to .290.  Then, if you factor in his age, he might have a .280 or lower BABIP, which might elicit a shrug from you until you realize, if his BABIP is around .280, he’s going to hit .245 or lower.  Things are insanely precarious for Carpenter this year.  This is not even factoring in the chance a 33-year-old has of getting injured.  Putting me aside because you don’t care about my feelings, Steamer’s hitter projections have Carpenter down for:  99/26/73/.252/4 in 554 ABs, that would put him on par with Matt Chapman, except Carpenter is being drafted on average at 75 overall, and Chapman is going at 110.  Just because you’re wearing Hammer pants, does not mean you need to embrace a Carpenter.  Stamp him Schmohawk, and avoid him.

  1. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!!!

    Great Schmohawk report.

    a. Never liked Carpenter and now after this, I have closed this chapter. Thanks, the end.

    b. Got Villar back off waivers. Thanks for that, too.

    c. Subdued Norm MacDonald quote of the day for February 27

    1. Cats and paraplegics have a lot in common. For starters, neither appreciates being tossed into your neighbor’s pool.

    2. They say there’s no people like show people, but now scientists have now found that the show people are genetically linked to the Laplanders and the Finns.

    3. A Florida University student was caught streaking on campus and apparently told police he was on acid and asked them to cut his dick off. Boy, these kids these days are crazy. In my day, we didn’t need drugs we would just spontaneously cut our own dicks off.

    4. There’s a new 3D version of The Great Gatsby coming out. Did you see it in 3D? In 3D, it was almost like this sober examination of the unrestrained materialism and absence of morality of the roaring 20s JUMPED right out at you!

    5. I think my doctor might be retarded. Why? His name is Dr Retardo.

    6. 42-year old Richard Swanson set out to dribble a soccer ball from Seattle to Brazil but got hit by a car in Oregon and died. Well, at least he got to die doing what he loved…dribbling a soccer ball in heavy traffic.

    7. A man in Taiwan reportedly cut off his own penis to win an argument with his wife. That reminds me of that episode of Everybody Loves Raymond where Raymond forgot to have his birthday and cut his own penis off.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • frankgrimes says:
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      @Ante Galic:
      Yo Ante my man has there ever been a post you didn’t like? Haha.

      • Ante Galic says:
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        @frankgrimes: Grimey!!!

        No, there has never been a post I didn’t like. There I said it.

        Go Giants!

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • frankgrimes says:
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          @Ante Galic:

          Join the FCL this year. Think need one more team.
          When you come to Bay Area we go to a game and watch Harper hahaha.

      • Zeus says:
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        @frankgrimes: Ante Galic is the Bobo of Razzball

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Ante Galic:

      What is this penis cutting off day?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I was thinking that too, MP

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: A. No problem B. Nice! C. 7. Ha

  2. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Another one I’m fully agreed with you on – even in OBP he’s still being drafted a little too high…

    $13 Story for his $4 Dahl and $8 Vladito (keep forever, 12 teams)? (Would be letting Matt Chapman go to FA pool and try to redraft him).

    FYI – This is the same league as the $13 Story for $21 Goldy and $6 Bellinger offer….though that offer has now morphed to Story for $21 Goldy or $3 Eugenio (my pick) plus $17 Benintendi instead.

    Thanks!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:

      i think i wud keep story and chapman. dahl is ok, still needs to prove himself over a full season. vlad is vlad, but the last top prospect, can’t miss, buxton, is still mia.

    • frankgrimes says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?:

      Duda you’ve had more trade offers in the last week than I’ve had in ten years.
      You should join the FCL I think one more team is needed.

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @frankgrimes: my keeper deadlines are this week + the leaguemates in my two leagues just woke up + went nuts!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @frankgrimes: Thanks for the invite! Would love to but the 3 leagues I’m currently in are probably my limit!

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Just trying to make sense of all of these sudden offers flooding in at the deadline! I have a huge mancrush on Story (and a minor one on Chapman), so just trying to make sure I don’t have blinders on as I get the urge to immediately reject most of these offers. (since it’s close, i’ll hold – the since-withdrawn Bellinger/Goldy offer was the only one that had me excited)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, if it’s close it’s prolly not worth it

  3. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Today’s random mention to confuse readers:”downtown Schenectady.” Chuckled at that one. I live just outside the city. Maybe I’ll check out that launch Angels fashion show later. Not sure where they will hold it, though. Have you ever been to Schenectady? Not a lot of options.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation: I love Schenectady! My brother lives there. I wouldn’t know about options for a fashion show, but plenty of options for craft beer.

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Cram It: yes. Very true. I’m thinking the casino would be the best option. Then a short walk to Druthers for a craft beer and a burger

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation: All I know about Schenectady is people from there who work in NYC like books on tape.

    • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation:

      Ha I’ve been there.seems like a nice little town………my son lived in Skaneateles Falls, well actually he worked near there lived in Marcellus Falls. It is nice up there if you can get used to snow and cold.

      But Summers on the lakes are worth the price of admission.

      • Matty says:
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        @LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood:
        I too love the Schenectady reference. Grew up a few minutes outside town and still am back for holidays. I’ll keep an eye out for the fashion show and will wonder if there’s a deeper reference that I somehow missed.

        • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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          @Grey:

          never really thought of that this all anonymous…… but actually several

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Just didn’t think there was a LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood Jr.

            • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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              @Grey:

              They are all named LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood even the girl.

              • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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                @LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood:

                Glad i did’nt name them all Bryce…….my new name my be BryceHarperWillFindTheCircleJerkOfHisDreamsInSanFran

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  HAHA

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Well, yeah, I figured

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood: Yeah , that area is nice but you are spot on about the weather. Summers in upstate NY are the best but winters have gotten too long.

        • LennyDykstraIsJustMisunderstood says:
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          @Sweatpants Nation:

          My favorite spot is Lake Keuka sometimes we rent a place up there

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sweatpants Nation: I haven’t been, but Cougs’ family owns a few hotels there, and I keep telling them to sell them… You have any interest in buying a hotel?

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: Not that I know of. Schenectady officials have been trying to get the economy going since GE basically closed up shop. Big emphasis on food and drink and now the casino to try to lure tourists.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gotcha, I’ve never been I just find the name funny…

          • Sweatpants Nation says:
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            @Grey: You should come in the summer and you can watch the Tri-city Valley Cats, A-ball affiliate of the Astros. Lots of future Stro stars came through there. Altuve, Pence, Kuechel etc. Great park for A-ball. I’m sure Coug’s family could you a good price on a room.
            Oh and check out the movie A Place Beyond the Pines. It takes place in Schenectady (it’s what the name means in native language)

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              That movie actually had scenes in one of their hotels, I think… Never saw it…

              • Sweatpants Nation says:
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                @Grey: they shot a lot of I in the area even used a friend’s house. She got in the no playing the mom. Haha. Ray Liotta would hang out in the downtown bars.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, Liotta I think stayed (or acted in) their hotels… It’s going back a few years they were talking about it…

  4. Pink Doves says:
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    I have a super serious dilemma on my hands.

    15th year of a keeper league. Keep 6 +2 minors (optional). You lose the draft round of the player you keep. We just lost 2 owners. So we are down to 10 for this season.

    My keepers: Lindor, Turner, Bregman, Soto, Acuna,
    Minors: Robles

    For my 6th keepers I have these options. Jose Rameriez but as 1st rounder 9th overall.
    Realmuto as a 10th
    Corbin as a 27th.

    I’m guess Corbin is kinda a no brainer at the value and the fact I have no other SPs. Although I generally win my league when I go super heavy towards offense and put together my staff.

    Thanks bruh

  5. Mark says:
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    So…do you agree with Steamers 99/26/73 ?? Ive got for $4 in a. OBP, Keeper. Still sounds like a deal to me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mark: He’s fine for $4

  6. Jeremy says:
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    To help me put his schmkhawk-ness in perspective, what if you can keep him for $9 in a league with. $375 budget and he’s eligible at 1B/2B/3B/CI/MI? Worth it that far short of going market rate, or is he a “stay away altogether” guy?

    (I also get Chapman and Muncy for $6 at those corner positions)

    • Cram It says:
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      @Jeremy: He’s valued at $10 in the rankings at that’s out of a $260 budget I believe, so sure he’s worth keeping at $9.

      • Jeremy says:
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        @Cram It: If I wasn’t an idiot, I would have just looked at that myself. But I am an idiot. So thank you. Hopefully I can stop being an idiot by the time my RCL drafts on the 16th

        • Cram It says:
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          @Jeremy: Welcome to the idiots club!

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            @Cram It:

            Oh, cool, I didn’t know we had a club..lol

            • Cram It says:
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              @Malicious Phenoms: We have a league too! I’m in one that’s literally called, The Idiots League.

    • WhiteRabbit says:
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      @Jeremy: $9 is fair but i’d look to see if that price tag will get someone to offer up his “perceived” value and get you more. I’d hate sitting on a .220-40 average

      • Jeremy says:
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        @WhiteRabbit: I do have Trout, Betts, Soto, and Bregman to help offset that. But there are Cards fans who are bad at fantasy baseball in the league, so that’s a good idea. One which, again, I would have thought about were I not an idiot. The fact that I’ve ran away and hid in this league the last 2 years….woof. (I kicked their tails so bad in ‘17 that the commish did a hard reset of a 10 yr keeper league with no discussion or warning other than running it by a couple of the loser teams. I stayed just to show them I could beat them anyway.)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jeremy: Agree with Cram

  7. 216 stitches says:
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    Well, the counter argument on Carpenter is his batted ball data, which is pretty darn sweet- #1 hard hit%, #5 FB%, never pops up (fourth lowest IFFB%), never hits it soft (3rd lowest soft hit %) and will hit at the top of a good offense where with his OBP should provide a good volume floor. Near ideal launch angle and related stats, too. That said, I agree he is probably overrated where his ADP is in the mid-60’s. Struggles with off speed, tends to be streaky, and I even have a question about the volume with Goldschmidt locking down 1B and a deep Cardinals bench. I’d be comfortable with him around 90 or so, and in some drafts I’ve seen him slip that far, as there are a fair number of skeptics out there.

    • Captain Obvious says:
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      @216 stitches: Then have him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @216 stitches: He’s either going to hit 25 of the shortest home runs on record or he’s going to hit .240 and a ton of 380-foot outs

  8. Chris D says:
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    Happy Wednesday Grey,

    Would you move Sano for Mejia in a dynasty? (I know how much you love catcher questions lol)

    Thanks Grey!

    • Captain Obvious says:
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      @Chris D: Of course you should do that.

      • Chris D says:
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        @Grey: the guy who came to me with this got cold feet and backed out. Figured this was a no brainer from my end. Either way, thanks for the input to both of you!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  9. Shitwolf says:
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    Schmohawk is just such a perfect word for these articles haha. Now I want to re watch curb… is it bad that I prefer reading the schmohawk posts over the more positive posts? What does that say about me!

    • Captain Obvious says:
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      @Shitwolf: Your name says it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Shitwolf: Nope, I prefer a good bit of negatively too

  10. The Great Knoche says:
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    10 Team 6×6 w/ OBP and holds as extra categories league. Keep forever with $4 inflation. Here’s who I am keeping. This league uses 5 SP slots and 4 RPs

    3B Arenado $26
    SS Story $15
    SS Correa $18
    CI Bryant $18
    OF Dahl $10
    OF Ozuna $14

    SP Clevinger $10
    SP Flaherty $10
    SP Taillion $10
    SP Snell $5

    Would you keep Glasnow for $10 in a RP slot as a SPARP? Could get a big leg up on Ks and Wins. SPs are already very solid however. Or would you save the money for bats?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @The Great Knoche: Sounds like an okay price, I also think you can get him back for near that price, or someone similar

  11. BK says:
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    Thanks again for all your info, you never disappoint.

    Keeper questions for you.

    No penalty for keeping them. Head to Head league

    Bichette
    Honeywell
    Adell

    Who will have the earliest and biggest impact this year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @BK: Honeywell

      • BK says:
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        @Grey: that’s what I figured. Thank you

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  12. Captain Obvious says:
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    Why do use fantrax? It’s so clunky.

    • Captain Obvious says:
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      @Captain Obvious:Have you looked at their rankings? The place is a mess. Still only 3 teams. 14.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        @Captain Obvious: Lots of people don’t even start reading about fantasy baseball until March. Once more people start checking in it will fill. Almost all this weeks drafts are full.

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      @Captain Obvious: It takes some getting used to, but it’s grown on me. It’s easier to use than Yahoo and CBS for sure. ESPN might be slightly more user friendly, but Fantrax has a lot more going on.

      • Captain Obvious says:
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        @The Great Knoche: I use yahoo, it’s easy and that makes it good. I will get used to it but it’s very odd. What’s up with the rankings?

        • Captain Obvious says:
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          @Captain Obvious: Join league 14 asses. Draft Carpenter so it’s easier!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Captain Obvious: Because they help us get the stats moved to our site so we can show master standings, whereas ESPN is a pain for Rudy, and ESPN doesn’t help us at all

  13. BK says:
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    Thanks for the info every year, you never disappoint

    Keeper question

    No penalty for keeping a player

    Who has biggest impact this year?

    Head to Head league.

    Bichette
    Honeywell
    Adell

    Most likely not Adell. Or should I keep him baseing it on him having the greatest long-term value

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @BK:

      Dante’s kid and Adell.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @BK: Honeywell

  14. JB says:
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    Great stuff as always.

    My HS wood shop teacher had a thumb and one finger on his right hand, but I saw him lift a huge kid off the ground by the neck with said hand – dude was a 7-fingered beast of a man.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JB: Thanks! Haha, nice!

  15. Rick says:
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    Dynasty league:

    Pivetta or N.Castellanos

    Thanks

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Rick:

      Nick

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rick: Castellanos

  16. Crime Dog says:
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    Great schmohawk post.

    You calling them schmohawks reminds me of something I use to do in fantasy football… Foisting. Although I didn’t know that’s what it was called at the time. I use to pitch guys I knew would be bad aka schmohawks to certain leagues mates, usually ones who talked trash and doesn’t really know what they were doing. I think I’m going to bring this approach back to baseball and see how many schmohawks I can get one guy to draft and foist him!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: Thanks! I love it, the foist!

  17. Don’t Dwell on It says:
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    I’ll start off saying Lindor injury has me worried because of that dreaded “linger” word affecting him so I’m dropping him a bit in my rankings. I was offered his Acuna and Judge for my Lindor and Yelich (another injury waiting to happin guy) their salaries are a wash in this 8 team keeper league. Do you see more upside and less risk worth a shot with thus offer?

  18. peacecoast says:
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    ok G here it is,
    My first slow draft starts Friday. 12Y mixed roto. I am keeping 3 ss: Treat, Mondesi, Story. Also Voit and Taillon. My first pick will be around pick 20 because I am keeping Treat in round 1. So for my first hitter in that second round I expect to be choosing between guys like Bryant, Hoskins, Beni, Rizzo around there. I see 3B is deep and am willing to wait. SS is locked up. 1B is weak but I am thinking I should take Hoskins to start building OF. What do you think? I wanted to take only high AVG elite hitters to start cuz of my belief that so many guys later in the draft are 250/25 capable. I know you are big into him this year, do you see a better average than 250 though? My 3rd round pick will likely have to be a SP due to inflation in the league from keepers.

    • bigbear says:
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      @peacecoast: You’ve got SB on lock down. So power and AVG are what you’re looking for. I’d lean toward Rizzo or Hoskins. A guy like Daniel Murphy would pair well with them and how your team is setting up. What are your thoughts on him?

      • peacecoast says:
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        @bigbear: I like him but Grey doesn’t. Love his avg and being in Coors.

  19. Just Do it says:
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    I’ll start off saying Lindor injury has me worried because of that dreaded “linger” word affecting him so I’m dropping him a bit in my rankings. I was offered his Acuna and Judge for my Lindor and Yelich (another injury waiting to happin guy) their salaries are a wash in this 8 team keeper league. Do you see more upside and less risk worth a shot with thus offer?

  20. Wass says:
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    Grey! Thanks for the schmohawk posts… i love when my players to avoid get validated.

    Keeper question similar to Mondays… 5×5 standard roto, unlimited keepers. $260 auction budget.
    Definite keepers:
    Story ($15)
    Eddie Rosario ($10)
    Ozuna ($17)
    Snell ($10)
    Corbin ($7)
    Bauer ($13)

    Would you keep these, they’re more expensive than your value projections but its close:
    Asdrubal Cabrera ($5)
    Altuve ($37) (iffy on him… but he’d go at this price in the draft I think so leaning towards keep)
    Ian Desmond ($12)
    Corey Dickerson ($11)
    Kyle Gibson ($5)

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Wass:

      I’d throw them all back. If you want Altuve back, bid on him and hope you get a reduced rate..

      • Wass says:
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        @Malicious Phenoms: Appreciate it! That’s a good point! It’s a long running league and I just joined it so I am at a disadvantage but the top guys go for $40-$60 it looks like so $37 is probably fair value

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wass: No problem! How many teams?

      • Wass says:
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        @Grey: Sorry i forgot that… 12 team 23 man rosters

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Wass: I’d only keep Altuve from them then, and he’s a little iffy

          • Wass says:
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            @Grey: I am super iffy on him. I have great SP so i could gamble and throw him back. I’d probably rather overspend on someone else. Appreciate it!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              That works for me

  21. marti says:
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    10 team nl only auction $260 with $5 inflation for all keepers every year. We play standard roto with 1 catcher and 2 utility 5 outfield all infield postions plus 1 CI and 1 MI

    Here is my team going into draft Carpenter $18 Turner $21 Story $21 Acuna $11 Yelich 33 Puig $27 Nola $21 Knebel $11 Will Smith $6

    Obvioulsly i need a little more starting pitching which I usually find cheap and late in draft. Would you keep all my players? What categories on offense would you target? Going for the 3 peat this year and thanks for all you do

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @marti: I’d keep all your players… Nice hitting you have, I’d try to get some more power tho…

      • Marti Harris says:
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        If phillies dont get Harper, would you keep nick Williams for $11

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nope

  22. Skip Mcgillicuddy says:
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    Where I’m from, we would call a Schmohawk a Schmuck.

    I’d rather take a chance later in the draft on Devers (even tho the GB% gives me chest pains) or a Profar than draft Carpenter at his current ADP.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Skip Mcgillicuddy: Can him him that too! I have Profar way above Devers and have Carpenter above Devers

  23. bigbear says:
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    A .240-.250 BA with 22ish HR. Great OBP but no speed. No thanks. Especially when guys like Chapman, Shaw, Devers, Muncy, or Myers are still on the board. I’ll be grabbing some SP’s at that point in the draft and waiting for those other guys.

  24. knucks says:
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    Your dedication to responding to us commenters has always been admirable. But today, knocking all of these down before your picks at the turn for TGFBI is impressive. We do matter more Grey! I agree!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: Haha, yeah, I know who I’m picking, just a matter of getting over there

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: Plus, they can wait

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      BTW, how do you it’s my turn to pick? Are you in the league or is there some way to watch the draft?

      • knucks says:
        (link)

        @Grey: yea on their website they have links to the nfbc draft boards. So i been lurking since I found that out.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ah, gotcha… So which way you think I’m gonna go or should go?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I was thinking doubling OFs — Mazara and boo Ender

              • frankgrimes says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                Nice. Hard to visualize who is left to grab.
                What about Carpenter? hahaha.

                Seems peeps down on Springer why you thinks?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I like Springer, it’s just I just drafted him in AL-Only, so didn’t take him here… Prolly should’ve over Puig… Maybe injury history is scaring people…

                  • frankgrimes says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    Pick already! LoL

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Haha, I went upside since I’m not sure if I’m gonna own Eloy anywhere else

                  • frankgrimes says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    Eloy! Why ender over maz?
                    Btw I hate team 2 ha.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I hate a few of the teams… My team needed speed and runs over power… And expect to get power at 2B or CI and no speed…

                  • frankgrimes says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:
                    Inside the mind of the master…
                    know what pick rudy has in his?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Rudy took Trea/Giancarlo so that team, not sure the pick #, maybe 5?

              • knucks says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Mazara? I’m unfamiliar… you mean *Mezuzah* ?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha, yup

  25. BJFOHOHL says:
    (link)

    In typical me fashion I hear this song while reading this

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @BJFOHOHL: Look at you embedding videos into the comments… Hw has no one mashed up this song with an MC Hammer song — Hammer, please don’t hurt ’em…wickety-wickety-wickety, if I were a carpenter…

      • BJFOHOHL says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Sky is my Obi-Wan

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          His fingerprints are all over this! Haha

          • BJFOHOHL says:
            (link)

            @Grey: he is really handsy

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha

              • BJFOHOHL says:
                (link)

                @Grey: and gassy

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I just farted! No lie

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: open a window!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Too late

  26. BJFOHOHL says:
    (link)

    It feels like getting a .250 25-30 HR 1st baseman is now par for the course. It also feels like 1st base has been a big drop off over the past couple of years. I must be getting in touch with my feelings if I’m feeling this much .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, 1B is awash with 25 HR, .250 guys

      • BJFOHOHL says:
        (link)

        @Grey: If I was playing I would not be sweating that position as I watch other players reach for similar stats

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, not a ton of excitement at the 1st base position right now — Hoskins and Belly and Bauers then bupkis

          • BJFOHOHL says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Lots of floor not so much ceiling

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Think the guys I mentioned have some ceiling, but not sure if there’s huge ceilings

              • BJFOHOHL says:
                (link)

                @Grey: I was saying they are the ceiling guys in a sea of floor.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Oh, yeah, we agree then

                  • BJFOHOHL says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: mark the date

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha

  27. Dave D says:
    (link)

    Yeah, and how much better is Carlos Santana (200) than Alber Pujols (500) or Mitch Moreland (523) to warrant taking him there over a solid SP or a closer in round 14 instead.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pretty much exactly how I felt when I drafted Pujols in that AL-Only — Is he that different than Santana?

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Yeah. Good move there, I believe, considering that.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yup

      • BJFOHOHL says:
        (link)

        @Grey: did you handcuff AP with Bour?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nah, it’s AL-Only, so just no room or $

  28. Dave D says:
    (link)

    I’m totally with you on Carpenter. The thing that makes my head spin in that soon-to-be 36 year old Miguel Cabrera is being drafted at #165 ADP. He was even taken at #113 in one draft. WTF? Seriously? Is there ANY chance he returns value there? Whoever drafts him there is saying “I’m living in the past and you deserve my money.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, agreed, I’m pretty off old guys in general… Tho, I did somehow draft Cruz in that AL-Only league, but hopefully he doesn’t fall off a cliff… Half expecting it tho

      • Dave D says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I imagine whether drafting Cruz was brave or foolish will be determined. I’ve lost more than one league to someone that took a chance on David Ortiz that I wasn’t willind to do.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, same, same… I’m thinking the bottom falls out for Trout and Cruz this year bc this is the 1st year I’ve had them in about 6-7 years

          • Dave D says:
            (link)

            @Grey: That could be. I obviously love Trout the real life player but I’m wary in most cases of picking #1 overall. In a 15 team, waiting until number 30 for your 2nd pick isn’t always (usually) the best option. I guess it depends on the players and the years, but I’d rather have 11-20-41-50 than 1-30-31-60 in most cases. Much of it comes down to what players you target.

            The other thing in the back of my mind is how Trout plays all out and each year (like the last one) he is at increasing risk of losing time to injury. Maybe that’s not the best way to approach a player’s upside but I also think a lot about trying to avoid downside.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              It is so weird drafting at 1-30 etc. I can’t remember drafting like this in a long time… I had to take Bauer at 31 bc I didn’t expect anyone to be around at 60, and I think I was right, but it was a weird way to draft

              • Dave D says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                The draft position I like changes each year based on who’s where. I agree, 60 is a funky spot for a SP this year. All the guys I’d hope for are likely gone there and still too early on some guys I likely target. 4th round is a weird spot for me this year but I know exactly why you’d pull the trigger on Bauer there.

              • Dave D says:
                (link)

                @Grey: o

                Did you see draft orders are set in our NFBC and we’re neighbors? I’m #14 (13th priority), you’re #12 (8th priority).

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  I don’t think I even set my priority that late so I just got whatever I had there… I think I set like the 1st five… What crappy picks we got, I want a do over…

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Yeah, I had 12 last year, I think… Giancarlo, Bellinger, Yelich as 1st three didn’t hurt (I think that was my 1st 3)… So much depends on what the other people are doing too… Ralph drafted Trea Turner 11th in his league, that’s ridiculous, but helps the 11th spot there where it wouldn’t usually…

  29. Wally Wojciechowski says:
    (link)

    regarding a different schmohawk, I was planning to keep Vlad Jr. Now with knowing the Jays are going to play the delay clock game it is making me think twice. League Categories:
    R RBI SB OPS AVG | ERA WHIP K SV+HLD QS
    Potential keepers (no $ cost, just keep 5)
    Baez, Soto, Rendon, Vlad Jr, Puig, Castellanos, Robles, Peraza, Snell, Corbin.
    Also, I traded chaz noir last year very early for someones 1st and 2nd round pick (Thanks Grey!!) so I have 2 picks in the first two post-keeper rounds which is a factor.

    Thanks in advance

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Think you have to keep Vlad if it’s forever

  30. Asst2RegionalMgr says:
    (link)

    regarding a different schmohawk, I was planning to keep Vlad Jr. Now with knowing the Jays are going to play the delay clock game it is making me think twice. League Categories:
    R RBI SB OPS AVG | ERA WHIP K SV+HLD QS
    Potential keepers (no $ cost, just keep 5)
    Baez, Soto, Rendon, Vlad Jr, Puig, Castellanos, Robles, Peraza, Snell, Corbin.
    Also, I traded chaz noir last year very early for someones 1st and 2nd round pick (Thanks Grey!!) so I have 2 picks in the first two post-keeper rounds which is a factor.

    Thanks in advance

  31. drew fos says:
    (link)

    grey who do you like most as a keeper option? 12 team roto

    benintendi 3rd round
    marte 4th
    nola 5th

    thanks in advance breh

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Who else are you keeping? Prolly Nola

      • drew fos says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        acuna in the 9th

  32. Love the Shmohawk series. With the Vladdy Jr. post, I was wondering if a prospect shmohawk regular feature could be in order.
    I play in a 12 team AL only auction 5×5 OBP league
    I’m sitting with Kyle Tucker who I was forced to activate. He is a 10B so if I want to keep him, I have to protect him on my active roster. It also means that I am planning on signing him to 15 or 20 next year.
    Do you think its a bad move to burn those auction dollars? I can move him to my ultra and sub him out week one and wait on him but that means a lot of hope and hope for value for next year.

    Should I just throw him back or is he worth holding at his price?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Throw him back and redraft him for near that cost

  33. Gus says:
    (link)

    Grey,
    Do you have a cheatsheet similar to what ESPN puts out? I would rather go by your rankings. Thanks

  34. Earl says:
    (link)

    Here is my help post for the day:

    I got following so far in 12 team roto redraft (drafted in order shown):
    OF – Trout
    SS – Story
    SP – Buehler
    3B – Rendon
    2B – Mondesi
    RP – Osuna
    SP – Taillon

    So I am thinking next couple picks (round 8 and round 9 ) will be hitters. Looking for input regarding following:
    1) should I be concerned that I do not have 1B as the top 5 or 6 are gone including Votto and Abreu. Still could have maybe Aguiliar, Matt Olsen or Max Muncy next or wait
    2) should perhaps be going OF as we start 5 in our league. Eddie Rosario, Dahl, Conforto and Puig might be available next. Also, Eloy Jimenez might be.

    With the above, should I be concerned about selecting positional at this point or just go with best player available and perhaps follow the rankings??

    Thanks for all your help everyone!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      1. I like those 1Bs, can see that in my rankings 2. You need Ofs, badly

      • Earl says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Thanks. So are you maybe suggesting 1 1b and 1 OF with my next picks depending who is available of course

        • Earl says:
          (link)

          @Earl: Also find it difficult to know when to reach for rookie like Eloy Jimenez or Robles. Or would you say just follow the rankings even if it means missing out on them??

          Thanks man!!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            You need to draft them at least a round before their ADP if you want them

          • Cram It says:
            (link)

            @Earl: Just give Grey your password.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Definitely an OF, maybe a 1B

  35. Eric says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey,

    My league’s keeper rules for drafted players are that you can keep anyone you drafted except for those in the first round but it will cost you one prior round pick in next year’s draft (you drafted Giancarlo in the second round, you can keep him and lose your first round pick next year). For free agent pickups you can only keep one, and it’ll cost your 25th round pick next year.

    As of now, I’m planning to keep the following:

    Eugenio Suarez (will be my 14th round pick)
    Patrick Corbin (will be my 15th round pick)
    Miguel Andujar (will be my 25th round pick)
    Miles MIkolas (will be my 22nd pick)

    Do you agree that the above are sound choices? Would you consider changing any of the above for any of the below (I can only have 4 keepers total)?

    Carlos Carrasco (would be my 3rd round pick)
    Robbie Ray(would be my 4th round pick)
    Giancarlo (would be my 1st round pick, at pick #12)
    Rhys Hoskins (would be my 5th round pick)

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Keepers look fine, I’d consider Hoskins over Mikolas

  36. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Picking 9th in the NFBC. Man that’s a brutal spot. We’re going deGrom/Cole 1-2

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I just emailed NFBC and told them to put aside those two for you… No take-backsies, sorry

      • frankgrimes says:
        (link)

        @OaktownSteve:
        @Grey:

        15th for me. I’m doomed.
        Hold me.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Woof, trade your pick!

        • OaktownSteve says:
          (link)

          @frankgrimes:

          I’d rather be at 15. 9 is really bad this year.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Not if you have Trea Turner fall to 11 like Ralph did in his league

            • frankgrimes says:
              (link)

              @Grey:
              Grimey never gets such luck.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Neither do I, Grimes

                • The Great Knoche says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: Ended up at 8, right next to Rudy at 9. Gonna piss each other off every other round.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    Ha, nice… Better take Trea Turner if he’s there!

                    • The Great Knoche says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: I might mix it up. This will be my 4th draft and I’ve had 7,8,9 in all of them. Guess who I own everywhere. Then again maybe I won’t. Where’d you end up?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I have 12th pick I think, which is prolly worst possible pick

                    • The Great Knoche says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: was it your 15th choice?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Ha, I think it might’ve been

                    • The Great Knoche says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: that’s a bummer, but at leas you can say you have had the 1st pick. I’ve never had it, not even in an RCL.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      It’s amazing how much a team with Trout looks better, no matter what you do

        • Dave D says:
          (link)

          @frankgrimes: I’m right next to you Grimes. You can have JoRam and Kersha ;-)

  37. Richard says:
    (link)

    NL only 10 keeper league
    Huge inflation
    Aguilar $1, Hampton $1, TShaw $12, JBell $2,DeJong $6, Noah S $12, SDominguez$1, LCastillo $4. These,
    I think are my top eight (correct me if I’m wrong)
    Need to pick two from: TO’Neil $1, JMusgrove $3, JNelson $2, & MMelancon $2 (assuming he is appt closer). Have 2 weeks to make choices. Advice?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d wait 2 weeks… Prolly Musgrove, Nelson and maybe Melancon over Dominguez, if Melancon is closer and Dominguez is not

      • Richard says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks. I really had hoped that the young cardinal was going to be a source of homeruns and steals but he may not be able to crack the outfield

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I hear ya

  38. Licketty Splits says:
    (link)

    Great stuff … always hated Carpenter… maybe cause he plays for the Cards or the way he looks but never had him on any of my teams.
    Had my 1st Fantrax 12 team roto draft picking 12th.
    Plan was to take Hoskins then play him at 1st when eligible but things went sideways & the OF dried up on me while banging out picks on a 45 second clock. So a few mistakes were made but overall I like the team. I grabbed two 1B besides Hoskins & now will probably leave him in the OF unless I find someone on waivers later for my original plan
    Anyhooo here’s what ended up with:
    C Omar (Round 29)
    1B White (17)
    2B Schoop (15)
    SS Story (2)
    3B Bregman (1)
    CI Cron (19)
    MI Segura (5)
    OF Hoskins (3) Ozuna (7) Inciarte (10) Mazara (12) Domingo (20)
    Util Peraza (8) could not pass in round 8 plus can never have too many SBs
    Bench hitting K Morales (27)
    SP Buehler (4) Tailon (6) did not want another SP here but 45 sec timer got me ..panic mode
    Hendricks (11) Glasnow (14) Hill (16) McHugh (21) Woodruff (22) Matz (23)
    Elfin (25) Strahm (26) Shoe (30)
    RP Leclerc (9) Yates (13) Barnes (18) K Herrera (24)

    So besides the “mistakes” how does the team look??? Per war room it still is light on speed?
    Should I try to eventually drop one of the many SPs for a decent OF on waivers & try to put Hoskins @1B or just leave as is & see how it plays out???
    Thanks for looking at teams & answering questions …everyone wants the Master’s stamp of approval.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup, looks light on speed, but not bad overall… I like the pitching a lot, and the hitting is solid, you have solid floor players with a little upside mixed in… Me likey! I’d hold for now

  39. Licketty Splits says:
    (link)

    Yeah I am happy waiting ….19 extra OF’s drafted so there will be some on waivers probably even a gem that starts slow & dropped by an inpatient owner. In the meantime 3 options to fill 1B /CI slots
    Amazing for a money league that 4 teams even drafted two Catchers …although one guy drafted NONE ….might be a viable strategy for upcoming drafts. I assumed you had to fill your starting positions. But makes sense you can get a guy by opening day with dropping one of your upside dart throws that missed.
    Thanks again for sharing your expert thoughts

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem

  40. Sammy says:
    (link)

    Based off your rankings I’m keeping mondesi as my keeper. Wondering which direction to go in for my first few picks, as I gave the 8th pick in a ten team league. I’m looking at machado/Stanton as my first pick and goldy/freeman/story as my second pick. Also, each team keeps one pitcher, how early should I target my first pitcher (I have flaghtery in the 21st rd)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Machado and 1B — how many teams?

      • Sammy says:
        (link)

        10 teams

  41. Adam Hevenor says:
    (link)

    Are you worried about Ozuna at all based on the latest news?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      It would help to know what news you’re referring to

      • AdamH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Just that he might not play the OF until mid March. Just spooking me a little.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Don’t see how that means anything, as long as there’s no setback

  42. AdamH says:
    (link)

    Sounds good. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem

  43. Mike Murphy says:
    (link)

    This comment is for Grey and Rudy –

    Have to say that I’ve bought a few margarita’s in the past but never have paid for any Fantasy Baseball websites. I just grabbed your season pass w/ ad free option and have never been happier to throw $$ your way. You guys are the best out there and I’m very happy to support your hard work. Glad we could finally do so in a more organized way than donating Margarita’s!!!
    I play in an AL only league for the last 16 years and have spent weeks building a spreadsheet that I use for my draft. Each year, I manually input the Razzball rankings. I can’t wait to download The war room and compare spread sheets. Thanks for all you guys do,
    best of luck to you both this year. And Grey – best of luck with the Athletic!

    • Mike Murphy says:
      (link)

      @Mike Murphy: I guess you know my real name now as well!! This is coming from the artist formerly known as “The Talented Mr. Dope Man”

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        You can change your username too after you log in

        • The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
          (link)

          @Grey: Done!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Frank Voila!

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
              (link)

              @Grey: Ante has everyone saying that now. Lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha, thanks, man! Appreciate it!

  44. Numba One Stunna says:
    (link)

    The multi position eligibility sure is nice though.
    I hope you all take Gs advice and he falls to me in round 8 or 9

  45. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Wow I hear your headed to the athletic. CONGRATS, man.

    Of course you get a corner office with a great view, right?

  46. MIke says:
    (link)

    Hey there!
    Keeper Points league that’s heavily skewed towards pitchers.

    My keepers and their salaries are
    Verlander 26
    Bauer 19
    Baez 10
    Corey Seager 4
    and either Tailon at 11 or Andujar at 4 or Seager at 12

    We also have a minor league system, and since I can only keep 5 major leaguers I am looking at the following trades
    A) Verlander for Robles
    B) Tailon for Honeywell (extra good because I can leave him in my ‘minors’ except when he’s pitching for most of this year)
    c) Andujar for Kopech and Justice Sheffield

    I know option A seems like a no brainer because it’s the bigger name, but our league is very pitcher friendly. We have a 10 start limit and only 3 acquisitions per week to cut down on streaming. For example, Verlander got the third most points last year behind Yelich and Mookie.

    Which option do you think I should go with? Thanks a bunch!

  47. MR BASEBALL says:
    (link)

    Michael Chavis do you like him for 2020 – any numbers come to mind if he plays a full season

Comments are closed.