When I think about people saying they’re going to draft Matt Carpenter, I think of the old hypnotist’s trick. If you’re going to draft Matt Carpenter, I want you to do this: close your eyes and pretend to be shaking a salt shaker into your mouth. Now, incredibly, you will taste salt. There’s no easier schmohawk post for me than a guy who has a career year at 32 years of age or older. On the other hand, 31 years old? Give me some! (Kidding, please don’t ask why 31 is okay.) Does anyone drafting Carpenter expect to get the same again what he did last year? I can count the guys who peak in their thirties, who are not on ‘roids, on one hand and that’s a hand of a high school wood shop teacher. “Today, I’m going to show you how to make your mother a chair–Okay, don’t be alarmed, it only looks worse than it is. Place my thumb in your ice-cold Fanta, and call me a Lyft.” *blood from wound sprays teacher in his face* “Don’t give the substitute a hard time, I could be out for a few.” So, last year Matt Carpenter went 111/36/81/.257/4, which is so goofy you can put that stat line from Carpenter on LinkedIn and get hired to don a Goofy costume at Disney World, sight unseen. “Yo, moms, I just got hired by Disney.” “Bravo, Salvatore! I-a didn’t even know-a you applied.” “I didn’t, I just wrote down Matt Carpenter’s stat line on LinkedIn.” By the by, I wanna get a giant mastiff and name it, Salvatore Glands. Anyway, what can we expect from Matt Carpenter for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
First off, his career high in homers prior to last year was 28. So, did he don wings and become a supermodel at the Launch Angels fashion show in downtown Schenectady? He had an insane launch angle of 20.3 degrees, and that was the 2nd highest in the majors last year. This is nothing new for him. He had a 21.4 degree launch angle in 2017, and that was the absolute highest that year. If he swings and misses, he makes a perfect 360-degree circle in the air, that’s just how he swings. Dot dot dot. Did not don wings. So, it’s not like when he hit 36 homers last year he did anything different. In 2017, his average home run distance was 400. Last year it was 389 feet. Yo, Salvatore Glands, can I get a woof? What happens if he shaves another 11 feet off his average homer distance? He’s going to be hitting 378-foot outs. That’s another issue. He hits a ton of fly balls (as you can imagine from his launch angle). If he’s not hitting the ball out, he could hit .220. “.220?” You ask to no one in particular with skepticism. Well, let’s see, he hit .155 last April; he hit .170 last September and, the months when he was hitting .320 (June/July), his BABIP was .340. It shouldn’t come as a surprise to you that if he’s hitting a lot of fly balls, his BABIP is going to be closer to .290. Then, if you factor in his age, he might have a .280 or lower BABIP, which might elicit a shrug from you until you realize, if his BABIP is around .280, he’s going to hit .245 or lower. Things are insanely precarious for Carpenter this year. This is not even factoring in the chance a 33-year-old has of getting injured. Putting me aside because you don’t care about my feelings, Steamer’s hitter projections have Carpenter down for: 99/26/73/.252/4 in 554 ABs, that would put him on par with Matt Chapman, except Carpenter is being drafted on average at 75 overall, and Chapman is going at 110. Just because you’re wearing Hammer pants, does not mean you need to embrace a Carpenter. Stamp him Schmohawk, and avoid him.