In the top 20 2nd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball post January Grey mentions that there will need to be an overrated post for Matt Carpenter written at some point.  Way to pass the buck, bucko!  Well, two can play that game, Morris Chestnut, so I’m going to copy some of the shizz January Grey spewed at ya and vomit it right back, “Last year, Carpenter scored 126 runs.  That’s the third highest runs total since 2008.  To give you an idea of what the guys who beat him did the following season:  Granderson scored 136 runs in 2011 and 102 the following year and Trout scored 129 in 2012 and 109 last year.  No one scores 120 runs in back-to-back years without a crapton of steroids.  Do I smell an overrated post coming for Carpenter?  I can’t smell due to a build up of cerumen that’s made its way into my nasal passages, but it sounds about right.  (BTW, the Wikipedia picture for cerumen is so nasty.  Don’t look, seriously.  And now that just made you want to look.  Suckers!)”  And that’s me quoting January Grey!   So, what makes Matt Carpenter overrated for 2014 fantasy baseball?

I wanna talk generally about stat projections that plays into that quote above from January Grey (you bastard!).  Homers and steals are a lot easier than batting average, runs and RBIs to project.  Runs and RBIs are directly connected to the lineups around them and where they’re placed in said lineup.  If the guys behind Carpenter are in an 0-for-30 slump, it doesn’t matter if he’s hit 30 doubles in a row, he will sit at 2nd base.  If the guys in front of him can’t get on base, he won’t drive in anyone without hitting a home run, something he only did 11 times last year.  Batting average is very dependent on luck.  Carpenter makes solid contact, but even solid contact can be caught.  His batting average last year was .318.  If ten balls that went for hits last year were caught (that’s one hit every 16 games), Carpenter would’ve hit .302.  Steals are obvious to predict — guys either have speed or they don’t.  Something Carpenter doesn’t have a whole lot of (3 steals last year).  Power is obvious — can’t hit homers without it.  Carpenter’s 11 homers last year wasn’t good when you consider a very important number — 717 plate appearances.  That’s more PAs than Michael Bay had on his last film.  Since 2000, there has been 90 players that have notched 717 plate appearances.  Of those 90 players, 25 players had less than 11 homers.  That’s actually a larger number than I expected because I forgot something.  You need to be at the top of a good order to get 717 plate appearances, and who’s usually at the top of a good lineup?  A fast player.  Of the 25 players with at least 717 plate appearances and less than 11 homers, no one comes within spitting distance of only 3 steals.  NOT ONE SINGLE PLAYER.  Anyone that has around 3 steals with that many plate appearances usually has 35+ homers.  The best comparisons for Matt Carpenter’s 2013 are Craig Biggio in 2003 (15 HRs, 8 SBs), Michael Young in 2006 (14 HRs, 7 SBs) and Derek Jeter in 2012 (15 HRs, 9 SBs).  Quite the exciting group, huh?  Yeah, and those guys were much better than Crapenter when eliminating runs, RBIs and average.  I’m actually being generous when I project Crapenter for 94/12/69/.304/4.  One DL stint and he doesn’t even reach those numbers.  Don’t trust me?  Our Steamer projections have Crapenter down for 92/12/65/.289/5.  I have him ranked 102 overall, ESPN has him at 68 and Yahoo has him at 52.  As our podcast host, Nick, would say, “You have been advised.”

 
  1. RJ says:
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    Great read as always, Grey. I know I’m staying far away from Carpenter (especially since there are 2 Cardinal fans in my draft)

    I have a keeper question (10-team 6×6 roto OPS and QS are the extra categories):
    Keep 3 at the round they were drafted in:
    Goldschmidt (5th round)
    Scherzer (7th round)
    Beltre (2nd round)
    Shelby Miller (19th round)
    Lucroy (24th round)

    Which 3 should I keep? Thanks!

    • KrazyCeltic says:
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      @RJ: Goldschmidt and Scherzer are top players at their positions and excellent values in the rounds in which you will keep them. Those two are the definites: an argument can be made for any three of the others. If this is a two-catcher league I like Lucroy.

      • RJ says:
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        @KrazyCeltic: Nah, this is a one catcher league. Thanks for your opinion though! I mean I was leaning Shelby, but there is soooo much pitching! Beltre…he could be picked in the 1st and I’d get the edge of having an elite 3B. If I kept Shelby, and Beltre fell to me in the 2nd round (13th overall) I’d probably take him over Puig, who was my original target, since I wanted to “take a chance on Puig and Bruce” like Grey stated in his rankings. Grey, what are your thoughts, who is my 3rd keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @RJ: Goldy, Scherzer

      • RJ says:
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        @Grey: And the 3rd one??? L

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @RJ: Beltre

  2. Ryan says:
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    I am in the middle of a prospect draft in my dynasty league. Please help me pick 2?

    maikel franco
    joc pederson
    jon gray
    mark appel
    andrew heaney
    rougned odor
    austin meadows
    miguel aldredo gonzalez
    clint frazier
    raul mondesi jr

    • James says:
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      @Ryan:

      Depends on when you want them:

      Franco- he has shown in the minors he has 30 hr power and a decent average. I could see zimmermann 2.0 (or rolen or any other solid 3b with good power and average and little speed). He is ready now. Upside is really that, so never a 1st round talent, but ownable this year, and 5th round upside.

      Mondesi- has very good speed, developing power. Has elite upside, but at 17, the floor is complete wash out. I like him, but understand that this is a true lottery ticket.

      Gray- Butler will be the first up this year, but Gray could be there. Looks like a future #2 with high K rates. But Coors limits upside, and adds a lot of risk.

      Appel- Floor is fantasy #4, upside is #2, will be on a bad team for the next few years.

      Pederson- Cral Crawford upside, but blocked by an elite OF including the real Crawford. Hit tool also has questions (CC without the average is Colby Rasmus).

      MAG- buried in a system that he is the 3rd best SP prospect. There are already a few good young arms in the bigs, so it gets tough to say he has a clear shot. That team also has messed up some great SP prospects in recent memory.

      Heaney- love the upside, but as a lefty gets prospect ranking love. i think it is the same odd love Skaggs got 2 years ago (as the best Lefty, or Hultzen last year).

      Personally I rank: Franco, Gray, Appel, Frazier, Mondesi…. but i normally go upside over floor in prospects.

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Ryan:

      gonzalez is slated to be the 5th starter coming out of the gate .
      plus , potential up-side as a # 3 (especially on that team) .
      and , he gets to pitch against the mets .
      granted , still lots unknown about him ,
      since few have seen him in action .

  3. gareth says:
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    I just did a few espn mock drafts today, and was pretty happy with the results. However i came to the realization that the process was totally useless.

    In a razzball league, on draft day we’ll all be targeting the same players. We’ll all be going by the razzball rankings, not espn. There will be no Sleepers and little secret player stashes later in the draft. They’ll be snapped up.

    What have I gotten myself into? I cant even show my hand on this blog without alluding to my strategy on draft day!

    Whats the best course of action in a league of like minded players? Zig when they zag? Draft an anti grey team?

    I can see it now –

    No one taking pitching early.
    catchers being avoided like the plague.
    Razzball sleepers going ridiculously early.

    I think im getting a hairball :-(

    • bossmanjunior says:
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      @gareth:

      My experience last year was not everyone in these leagues follows Grey’s suggestions to the t. Draft strategies will differ a little bit, but obviously not as much in a public league.

      Definitely be prepared for guys to reach more than usual. Last year in ESPN Goldschmidt was criminally ranked around 80 something and someone still reached for him in the 3rd.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @bossmanjunior: goldy’s ADP on MDC last year was like early mid 40’s. I likely barely got him in the 3rd round of my 16 teamer (was a yahoo league, so people likely go more by their projections than espn)

    • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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      @gareth:
      Be a contrarian.

      If elite catchers are sitting there a round or two later grab them.

      Take an elite starter if they fall. Always be looking for value.

      Don’t reach for any of Grey’s sleepers, let them come to you.

      Study other sites projections and sleepers.

    • centerfield_ballhawk says:
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      @gareth: Join an NFBC league… use Razzball as your guide… win the cash.

    • NewLeaf says:
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      @gareth: in a situation like this I’d use other publications that maybe like certain players that razzball doesn’t, maybe adjust your strategies a bit (go earlier on pitching at the top, then grab middle round values while others are snatching up pitching). It very hard to play in a league where you are all using the same strategies and cheat sheets. My guess is that certain players will get overdrafted as everyone tries to beat the others to preferred players. But I do believe that means that some players will fall and certain overrated players will hit points in the draft where they now have value. I would just keep my options open and don’t look at anyone as not draftable. Using this thread as an example, Carpenter will fall in a Razzball draft…and fall far. I also believe he’s overrated, but there will be a point in the draft where he’ll provide value. Be open to grabbing those guys.

    • Pops says:
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      That happened to me last year. So I zigged and zagged. took lee and wainwright in 3-4 took Napoli to catch in 10 they left me Rivera and Jim Johnson I accidently auto drafted Ortiz on the dl and got Harvey- Burnett and Samardzija and Dempster. Pitching was set. I made 348 moves and won the league.

      First time ever playing roto.

      Yes, I am a RCL Champion, a RCL Champion I am. @gareth:

    • Pops says:
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      The alternative to Zig and Zag is to go to Fantasypros.com and pick another expert or better yet last week Rudy wrote a column about expert rankings. Check that and use another pert for the rcl league, but you have to use Grey’s rankings every where else. Grey’s are the best.

      Good [email protected]gareth:

    • Hawk says:
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      @gareth:

      When that happens, guys become so undervalued (i.e. Brian McCann in a one catcher league) that they are worth the pick and even become valuable.

    • Big Al says:
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      @gareth: It’s obvious, we need Razzball mock drafts.

      • Sherm says:
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        @Big Al: Agree. In one of my ESPN mock drafts this weekend I got Miggy (2), Longoria (11), Bautista (14), and Puig (19) in my first four rounds (parens= Gray’s rankings). Fun, but unrealistic.

  4. gareth says:
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    In defense of carpenter:

    While not a superstar, He was on top of the world when it came to second baseman last year. His 717 plate appearances were astonishing. He would turn out for EVERY game. Rainy days and Mondays NEVER got him down. We’ve only just begun to find out how good this guy can be. For all we know he could hit more HR’s and steal more bases next year. Most lead off hitters, they long to be close to his projections. Calling occupants of interplanetary earth, this guys a stud!

    • Rabbit says:
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      @gareth: Yeah, but I hear he lost a lot of weight over the offseason.

    • NewLeaf says:
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      @gareth: I agree he’s a nice player and it looks like his average could hold. While it’s unlikely he’ll get to 126 runs scored again, he’s a virtual lock for 90+. The issue is he’s being drafted in the 5th round of 12 team leagues, while others 2nd baseman are going much later (Brandon Phillips goes in the 9th round for example). I’m not sure he’s worth it at that price.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @NewLeaf: i don’t know how that dude lost a lot of weight, he was all lean muscle to begin with.

        • Rabbit says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: My comment was actually following Gareth’s theme of Karen Carpenter references. Sure, you may find anorexia jokes in bad taste, but it’s not as bad as making a carpenter/cruxifiction joke (I’m looking at you, Greysius Albright).

  5. gareth says:
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    G3 needs a nap now.

  6. Count de Monetball says:
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    Grey, that was a well written, well supported argument, and well filled with Grey humorisms and plagiarizm. Nice work!

    • Count de Monetball says:
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      @Count de Monetball: That being said, with Dempster taking the year off, does that raise Carpenter in the rankings?

  7. bossmanjunior says:
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    Definitely worth mentioning that the Cardinals set the modern day record for team RISP last year with .330. All but one hitter with at least 50 AB had a RISP of at least .297 last season. Yeahhhh don’t see that happening again.

  8. bossmanjunior says:
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    Few questions pertaining to a shallow H2H 10 team money league im in (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, UTL)

    1) How would your draft strategy change for a league this shallow? I’ve been taking the first pitcher in the 7th (Gio/Latos/Cole), and two more in the next three rounds.

    2) Would you be comfortable taking Cole as your first pitcher in the 7th over Gio and Latos (similar ADP) if you knew you could get guys like Bailey, Cobb, etc in the next couple of rounds?

    3) Having plugged my most common mock draft results into the war room, my team seems to come up a bit short on steals and runs but just over the 100% threshold for the other three cats. With this in mind, would you draft Marte over Myers or just stick with the rankings?

    Ex: C Ramos/ 1B Encarnacion/2B Gyorko/SS Segura/3B Longoria/OF Jones/OF Rios/OF Myers/UTL Rizzo

    Thank you sir!

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Grey:

        Not to pick nits, but what is your suggestion for my third question? Take Myers, the better overall player, or take Marte, possibly a better fit for team needs? Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Marte

          • bossmanjunior says:
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            @Grey:

            Thanks Hombre!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              De nada

              • bossmanjunior says:
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                @Grey:

                You need to work some Italian in there….Prego!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Spumoni!

  9. Matt says:
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    Hi Grey, quick trade question:
    12 team keeper HTH (keep 14, 6 OF spots)

    My Wil Myers for
    Nolan Arenado and Julio Teheran

    Myers is my 3rd or 4th OF keeper (mccutch, Stanton, kemp, Tavaras) so I feel like it will be easier to replace him via draft than get a young 3b. Also I have iwamura to replace and could use a good pitcher. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Matt: Sounds fair for your team

  10. c0wfunk says:
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    Love how you slyly switched to Crapenter at the end there. Nicely done. :)

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @c0wfunk: I noticed it too. Also,the word “steamer” showed up in that area. I believe the pressure was building and Grey likely went to the bathroom immediately upon,completion of the writing.

  11. badminton criminal says:
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    Grey….10tm h2h keeper league,keep 5 for 4years.(R,H,2b,3b,HR,RBI,SB,BB,K,TB,BA,OBP,SLG
    W,L,K,CG,SV,ERA,WHIP,H,ER,HR,K/9,QS,BB
    Im keeping Fielder and Segura….

    need 3 more….Phillips,Myers,Jose Fernandez,Cole,Wheeler,Latos,Moore,Teheran,Walker and Harvey.

    I have to keep Harvey,right?

    thnks.

    • badminton criminal says:
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      @badminton criminal: forgot, I also have ShinSoo Choo.

    • EnglishMetsFan says:
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      Jo-Fer, Latos and Cole. Harvey won’t pitch this year. You don’t know what you will get next year. @badminton criminal:

  12. MattH says:
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    Nice write up. Very informative. 717 PA’s. wow.

  13. Wake Up says:
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    Hey, remember that really good Michael Bay movie? me neither…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Was there an explosion in it?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Sky: Good stuff on QS…they look esp. bad with the pendulum swinging to the pitching side right now…
        But, on the other side of the coin…the point of playing the game is to win and if the pitcher gets a win…that means that their team won…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Haha, it’s true. I go out on a limb from time to time with friends and I say ‘whoever scores the most runs wins and that means the pitcher is awesome who wins and the pitcher who loses is terrible. It’s science’.

          I just appreciate a dividing line and QS provides it. It may be faulty but you can’t say it is or isn’t a QS based on the standards. A change to the standards would be nice but wins…ugly stupid ugliness.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Sky: yeah I meant the QS standards look esp. bad right now…

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              @Wake Up: Oh I know. To be fair, if a sub-4 ERA is considered good then you can’t have a QS with it being a +4. That’s even before now but like you said, even more glaring.

              Wins can take a jump off a bridge and not leave a suicide note.

              • Jay says:
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                @Sky: Quick question regarding pitching in QS league…

                specifically H2H, do you put more importance on drafting SP1 and SP2s throughout?

                it seems that with the addition of this stat into scoring would make one look towards bolstering a more quality staff rather than Grey’s philosophy of waiting on pitching?

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Sky: I once tried to jump off a bridge but I didn’t have enough to pay the toll

  14. Big Money Matt says:
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    Been reading the site since December, first time commenter. I was wondering if you could provide feedback on a recent 12 team yahoo mock. I had the 8th pick:

    Castro 18
    Votto 2
    Gyorko 12
    Andrus 7
    Arenado 14
    Jones 1
    Bruce 3
    De Aza 16
    Pujols 4
    Rizzo 10

    Sanchez 6
    Grey 9
    Chapman 5
    Rosenthal 8
    Liriano 11
    Masterson 13
    Porcello 19

    Bench
    Moss 15
    B Miller 17
    J Johnson 20
    R Davis 21
    T Walker 22
    Asche 23

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Money Matt: Looks like you got a good handle on things, I like the team, you do look a tad light on steals and too many bench bats…

  15. Wake Up says:
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    Just ran the numbers on Philly…with the addition of Burnett, the average age of their starting lineup is now 41…

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Wake Up: just entering their prime, right?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Mike: haha…as in…they can’t be divided into a positive? Yes!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wake Up: Haha, is that it?

  16. Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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    Carpenter is still a good option in OBP leagues. Which is what 25% of us play according to your survey.

    With his line drive rate I imagine he will hit a couple more over the fence this year.

    I can keep him for a 15th round pick. I imagine that’s ok in an OBP league even if he reverts to Crapenter?

    (After all, only one of us can draft Jedd Gyroko.)

    • tvators1 says:
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      @Jeff in Southern Indiana: I have Carpenter as one of my four keepers in H2H 16 team in the 15th rd as well……I think its a steal, Carps qualifies at 2nd and 3rd, plus look at his 2012 296 AB sample, just a little off his 2013 stats, I will take that, this yr as he quietly puts up points equal to Cano who will go in rd 1. Although, in roto re-draft, schmohawk I agree

      • Jeff in Southern Indiana says:
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        @tvators1:
        I’m with you, 2B seems like such a pile of crap, no wonder guys are grabbing Carpenter early.

        I feel like Phillips and Kinsler are already in age-related decline.

        Cano’s now in Seattle with a fat contract. Kipnis (and his 1/2 of a good year) and Pedroia are expensive.

        Aaron Hill is Jekyl and Hyde from year to year.

        If you don’t grab Gyorko, then what’s the plan? Maybe Altuve in the 8th or something.

        A tough position to handicap. Probably why the experts are reaching for a 2B in his prime like Carpenter (age 28).

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Jeff in Southern Indiana: grab gyorko for 3rd base then. And do i have to wait till the next time i get to evansville (southwestern Indiana) to find where you got those poll results?

  17. Bubba says:
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    Thank god fantasy baseball hath returned…I need an opinion since this is the first time I’m keeping players…

    2nd year Keeper, up to 5 keepers allowed, $5 tax per, Auction, H2H, 5×5…I’m keeping Goldy and Segura off the following list (with current values in parens)…which three should I keep otherwise?…

    Hitters

    * 1B Goldy ($23)
    * SS Segura ($5)

    * UT Ortiz ($5)
    * C Rosario ($6)
    * OF Trumbo ($17)
    *3B Longoria ($40)
    *OF Bautista ($40)
    *OF/1B Craig ($23)

    Pitching

    * SP Gio ($27)
    * SP Latos ($23)
    * SP Wheeler ($5)
    * SP Cashner ($8)
    * RP Perkins ($10)

    I always lean toward value/discount first…hitters over pitching…so that would mean…Rosario, Ortiz, and then Wheeler…or not. Thanks!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Bubba: Ortiz, Rosario, Trumbo

  18. Mike

    Mike says:
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    His success was all because he was 27 last year.

    *resumes playing with ouija board*

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Mike: A career year with a massive drop in K% from career norm at age 27 makes me want to ask, can I come over and play with your ouija board too?

  19. milo says:
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    I play in league where Carpenter has 2B eligibility and your projections work for me.

    • tvators1 says:
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      @milo: I’m pretty sure everyone plays in a league where Carpenter has 2b eligibility

    • Eddy says:
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      @milo: it’s not so much the projections (which aren’t mind blowing), it’s where he’s being drafted. If he were there at the end of the 8th or so, I’d consider him. Not the same in the 5th round where more value can be had from other players.

  20. Cram It says:
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    Auction draft strategy question: Say you’ve decided you’ve targeted a buy low/middle round guy to be your starter at a given position like, I don’t know, Aaron Hill at 2B; projected to cost $8. Do you think it makes a difference in what the cost will end up being if you put him up for auction early?

    The concept being that everyone else will poo-poo him that early and if posted later, people might go into freak out mode that they don’t have a 2B and he could end up costing more later? Does this idea hold any water? Or is it almost impossible to quantify?

    • Eddy says:
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      @Cram It: it’s an interesting strategy.

      Sometimes that works out. Someone throws a guy like CJ Wilson in the early rounds and everyone is like “OK?” And he goes for $1, $2. They got a pitcher for cheap. Other times it backfires.

      It’s best to sometimes test that with a mock draft. One “problem” is that it’ll always says how much a player averages, so if I see someone is getting a player way to cheap, I’ll bid once or twice to make him pay the extra dollar.

      • Cram It says:
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        @Eddy: I’ve done a bunch of mocks already, but it’s way too tough to test that theory there, because there are always autodrafters that bet the avg value no matter who the player is.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Depends on how warm the room is to your player. The guys you really want or at least targeting, it’s rare throwing them out early nets you a reasonable return. Too much money on the table still.

    • Wake Up says:
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      @Cram It: yeah depends on the room…
      I’d lean towards early in general though if you want him…if he goes too high…you have time to look elsewhere…

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I spend most of my draft throwing out guys I don’t want until it starts getting down to $1 bids being able to win the pot unless I see a spot where others might feel poor. It’s also always good to remind yourself you’re not hemmed in to one guy. You may want Aaron Hill but if he goes for over his value, have some others circled that you’d like. Maybe not as much as Hill, of course, but still…

        • Cram It says:
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          @Sky: Yeah I never throw a guy out there that I actually want. Naturally, I have a backup plan everywhere. But like a mad scientist, I’ve created my dream team on a $260 budget and I’m trying not to have the value guys I really want get overpriced. I guess it’s impossible to tell until you’re in the room. I remember last year, one guy realized he was going to have a lot of cash left over so he started outbidding everyone easily on what should have been $1 guys.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            auction drafts are definitely not for the drunkards. Clear mind from round 1 to round end. It makes it hard for me to want to join them but I’ll be sober for the right reasons.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            and by that I’m saying your friend was passed out drunk and woke up late.

            • Cram It says:
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              @Sky: Truth. Shit takes mad focus and there are no breaks.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Agreed. Yet I love it just the same. Easily my favorite way. Just hard to get people with enough time to do one together sometimes.

                • Cram It says:
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                  @Sky: It is longer too, but I much prefer it over snake. Last year was the first time our big money league switched over to auction and my Jew-ass, totally flubbed the draft.

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    hahaha. Yeah when doing money leagues, auction makes a lot more sense. That way no one can complain they got screwed because they got stuck at ‘x’ position of the draft or whatever. It’s a level playing field.

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: Auction drafts = the longest day of my life. Those are more a test of alertness than anything else.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      They also give you a shot at every player and not just the round values. I love them personally. Just always hard for 10+ people to find time to do them

                    • J-FOH says:
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                      @Sky: 6 hours I will never get back. I didn’t ind them, but i missed on guys when I had to go dump my piss bucket

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      You definitely need to clear out your bowels and your bladder before saddling up for one. Still, best way to get true value out of your draft. Great experience.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Think it’s hard to say… Some drafts work like that, others work that everyone still has money early and drafts up a player…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, I guess that’s the bottom line. You just don’t know ’til ya know.

    • Paul says:
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      The risk with a buy-low late round guy is that somebody else likes him and you have to overpay or take the dregs of the auction.

      If your strategy is to get anybody cheap for this position, or if you trust yourself to spot value early in the draft and let the buy-low guy go, then throw him out whenever you want.

      If, though, you’re really tied to him, I’d get him out there early. Find out if you’re the only one who loves him or not. If you get him cheap, awesome. If he goes way over cost, you probably weren’t getting him cheap anyways, and now you can keep your eyes open for the rest of the position. It feels like a loss when ‘your guy’ goes to somebody else, but if they overpaid that’s really a win.

  21. joeg414 says:
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    First round pick: Tulo,Cano or Hanley? Who would you pick? Please rate.
    13 Team mixed 6×6 roto.

    • Eddy says:
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      @joeg414:
      Cano. Grey has his at #6. Hanley is at #16, Tulo at #22.

  22. Jeff P says:
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    Yesterday I had my first ever auction draft (regular yahoo setup, pro league).
    I went in with a plan in mind and stuck to it. The plan was ‘Do what Grey says.”
    How does it look? (I didn’t get any closers, because 28 of them went for $7 or above).

    1B Michael Cuddyer (Col – 1B,OF) $9
    2B Ian Kinsler (Det – 2B) $19
    SS José Reyes (Tor – SS) $19
    3B Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) $27
    OF Matt Holliday (StL – OF) $24
    OF Shin-Soo Choo (Tex – OF) $28
    OF Wil Myers (TB – OF) $23
    UTIL Alex Gordon (KC – OF) $16
    UTIL Alfonso Soriano (NYY – OF) $4
    BN Brandon Moss (Oak – 1B,OF) $2
    BN Justin Morneau (Col – 1B) $2
    BN Brad Miller (Sea – 2B,SS) $3

    SP Michael Wacha (StL – SP,RP) $15
    SP José Fernández (Mia – SP) $27
    RP LaTroy Hawkins (Col – RP) $3
    RP Chad Qualls (Hou – RP) $3
    P Homer Bailey (Cin – SP) $12
    P Julio Teherán (Atl – SP) $9
    P Doug Fister (Was – SP) $5
    P Hiroki Kuroda (NYY – SP) $3
    BN Chris Archer (TB – SP) $3
    BN Brandon Beachy (Atl – SP) $3

    • MattH says:
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      @Jeff P: Brandon moss for $2. nice.

    • Spammer Jay says:
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      @Jeff P: no catcher league? love that. I think you got screwed on your OF’s and I’m guessing that screwed your 1st base situation. you need all of longo, jojo and jofer to come through big and not screw you… or your kindof screwed.

  23. Johnny says:
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    How does this ranking change in OPS leagues? Carpenter has put up solid OPS numbers two years running now. Thanks for the help.

  24. Even though Grey has a pathological, destructive disdain for 2Bs who aren’t fast or have 20 HR power (Carpenter, Neil Walker, Martin Prado, Daniel Murphy, sometimes Kendrick), I agree w/ Grey that Carpenter is overrated in drafts this year. Not a big fan of NL leadoff hitters because it’s a brutal spot for RBIs. I don’t think Carpenter will be worth much if anything more than the guys in the above parenthetical.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      So Rudy, you think Dustin Ackley can turn in a Neil Walker-type year?

      • nope. have no faith in ackley at this point. just draft neil walker!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rudy Gamble: Because Tommy Herr dissed me as a kid…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: Damn Herr and his fancy golden locks of majestic sunshine. He’s like the greatest American hero with a glove

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          HA! Why isn’t that the only show repeated from my youth?

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: I think you meant not repeated?…..if so, that and the Fall Guy. A hot blonde and the six million dollar man with a sweet name….. Colt Seaver……Am I right?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Fall Guy wasn’t based in reality enough for me, was more of a Greatest American Hero guy or ALF

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: ALF? a cat eating jew from space? i loved it. I loved how real it was, like Out of this World, a hot half alien….ggrrrrr!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Like Small Wonder but with a believable alien rather than a believable robot…

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: exactly, definitely middle school chubby material.

  25. RotisserieJediMaster says:
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    Grey,

    I’m not a frequent commenter so I’ll take this opportunity to thank you and the boys for the great work. I appreciate the analysis, but there’s no question the humor and puns are a big part of the draw. Now I’m going to blow your mind by staying on point!

    Thank you for proving that I’m not crazy! I’ve been doing draft prep for over a month and for the life of me, I had not been able to figure out why Carpenter is ranked so high. Right now, he’s ranked #68 overall by both fantasypros as well as your friends at espn. But at espn, he is also ranked ahead of Holliday, Pence, Myers, Werth, and Beltran?!

    Look, even my own razzball-independent analysis says that there’s no way he should be ranked ahead of any of those players. But I like this piece because at #68 overall, Carpenter could be an expensive mistake for us, so you are really doing a public service to fantasy managers by exposing this ranking-hype trap (RHT).

    Keep up the good work!

  26. Goose says:
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    I was able to keep Carpenter as a 14th round pick since I drafted him in the 17th in 2013 (my league is non-auction). Felt like such a boss (also got Pence in the 11th last year).

    • Goose says:
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      @Goose: Hey, who is this impostor Goose?

      THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE.

  27. Daveastation says:
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    We keep 10 in a 12-team H2H league

    I got EE, Freeman, Beltre, Pedroia, A. Rios, Hamels, J. Zimmermann, Teheran, Sonny Gray and one from this bunch: Zobrist, Yaddy Molina, D. Brown.

    I was leaning with Yaddy (might not get him back-bunch of Cards fans in my league lol) but I’m wondering about positional scarcity in terms of Zobrist. He is a consensus top 10 at SS and 2B and also gives me RF depth. I think it may make more sense to keep him over Yaddy given that catcher has become deep over the past year or two. I threw in Brown because he has to at least be considered but I have questions about how legit he is. Thoughts??

  28. Club House Guy says:
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    I just did a trade in my keeper league traded away Carlos Gonzalez and Jean Segura for Andrew mccutchen and Manny Machado. I can only keep five players I’ve got 3 spots left and four players to choose from dustin pedroia, xander bogaerts,jason heyward,giancarlo stanton. I’m thinking About not keeping Pedroia and going with Bogaerts? Any thoughts on these would be appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Pedroia, Stanton, Heyward

  29. The Flayed Man says:
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    12 team yahoo roto 5×5. 3OF no MI, CI or IF. Went a bit heavy on pitching because of the light hitting lineup. Am I way too SB light? I could cut Asche or a MR for some speed on waivers. Thanks.

    Iron Tusk
    1. (9) Ádám Jones (Bal – OF)
    2. (16) Prince Fielder (Tex – 1B)
    3. (33) Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    4. (40) Jean Segura (Mil – SS)
    5. (57) Wil Myers (TB – OF)
    6. (64) Alex Cobb (TB – SP)
    7. (81) Josh Donaldson (Oak – 3B)
    8. (88) Homer Bailey (Cin – SP)