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Someone’s going to launch me into the sun for my fantasy baseball overrated posts this year. From Bobby Witt Jr. to Michael Harris II to Daulton Varsho and Sandy Alcantara, okay, those last two were a little more understandable, but Witt to Harris II to (stutterer!) Luis Robert? Have I joined the old fuddy duddies who hate baseball? Am I a hater of fun? Will I dislike a bat flip? “Answer me!” I scream at the mirror, but my reflection doesn’t answer. It merely stares back, crying. But, when I touch my own face, my cheeks are dry. What is the meaning of this? Have I disconnected from reality? Is this not me typing these letters? “Whose hands are these!” I scream at the ceiling as I drop to my knees. Throwing disrespect at some of the most electric players in baseball isn’t great fun, I’ll tell ya that much after telling you exactly that. Luis Robert is fantastic, I think. I haven’t gotten to see him that much, tee be aitch, because he’s never on the field. So, what can we expect from Luis Robert for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
On the Player Rater last year, Luis Robert was 164th overall, right after Jose Urquidy and Jurickson Profar. Oh…*climbs to the top of Mt. Everest*…kay. But you, silly, silly, boy, that was one year. In 2021 on the Player Rater, he was, well, how about we do this? On the Historical Player Rater, he’s not listed for 2021, because he only played in 68 games. Must’ve been exhausted after the 2020 season. On the Historical Player Rater, he was the 43rd best player in that shortened season. It’s actually kinda funny in a non-haha way that his ADP this year is about how much he was worth in that goofy season. Just like Luke Voit. No, that’s not fair. Just like Adalberto Mondesi. No, no, wait a minute, that is totally unfair! More like DJ LeMahieu. Yeah, 2020 was a very normal year that should be the Because after the Why for nothing.
Taking me out of the calculation, if you look at the projections for Luis Robert everyone is giving him roughly 40 games more this year than any other season in his career, which I guess is fine. Maybe it is this year. Like with Mondesi and Buxton, ya know? This is it. His career high of games is 98 games. He’s never played 100 games. Unreal. But let’s say 120 games is what he’s going to do this year by some miracle. That would put his projections at 19/12, roughly, while hitting .280. Not trying to be completely daft, but that’s Jeremy Pena plus 20 points on average. Pena should play more games so will get more runs and RBIs and plays a different position, but, yeah, it’s kinda the same.
19/12/.280 is also the same as Xander Bogaerts, plus five to seven steals, and minus a ton of runs and ribbies. In fact (Grey’s got more!), Xander Bogaerts has been more valuable than Robert every season Robert has been in the majors. Right now, Bogaerts is going 40 picks after Luis Robert. There’s nothing but hopes and dreams in Luis Robert’s ADP. Luis Robert’s ADP is so inflated it might get shot down because it looks like a spy balloon. I want Luis Robert to be worth a top 45 overall pick. I’m going to put that “want” in one hand and I’m going to hold my butt with my other hand, then I’m going to weigh both. Wow, I have no visual fat so it’s surprising to find out my butt is still heavier than an amorphous “want.” Wild, I tell ya.
Do I need to mention Luis Robert had the 2nd highest chase rate in the majors, only 0.4 percentage points behind Javier Baez? Prolly not. Does it matter that Luis Robert swung at 84.1% of the pitches in the zone? Well, he makes pretty good contact, so it’s likely not a worry. Of course, that he had a 36.8% Zone% could be spun against him. It’s not the end of days, but a guy who sees no pitches in the zone could start making with more and more bad pitches, which could lower his BABIP. Oh, it did lower his BABIP last year? He has three partial years, hitting .233, .338 and .284. Prolly not a .230 hitter, or .330. .270 going 20/10 is totally fine, if you’re being drafted around Xander Bogaerts. Love Luis Robert, but not this year for me. I am so out. Stamp him a schmohawk and take someone else forty picks later with his stats. Someone who rhymes was Sander Mogaerts.
