Lets Play A Litttle Outfield Buy, Sell Or Hold

Let’s try something a little different today. I am going to go with “Buy, Sell, or Hold” on a few guys. It’s based on a kind of subjective assessment of what’s happened to their value so far this season and how I feel about that change. Realistically, there’s not a lot to do on most players now, short of trading them. And I wouldn’t go crazy on trades this early in the season, short of addressing an obvious team need. So it’s a lot of hypotheticals! Fortunately, people do make trades, and Yahoo tracks them, so I’ll refer to recent Yahoo trades here. Importantly, we don’t know whether these are keeper or salary leagues, so they lack a little context, so I’ll try to limit it to trades that look more like straight redraft trades. Anyways…..

Fernando Tatis Jr.

0 Homers. .253

Those 0 homers really stick out like a sore thumb. But he sure looks similar to what he’s been the last few years when he hit 25, 21 (in 102 games), and 25 homers. He’s got 9 barrels in fact, with nary a homer to show for it yet. That just screams statistical oddity. He’s got a 67.7% HardHit% , tops among qualified hitters, and his 94.1 EV would mark his best since 2020. His statcast page looks as good as ever.

But before you say “mean regression coming”, there are some not so great signs as far as a full power resurgence goes. He has just a 4.8% PulledAir%. Yes, that could be a small sample size quirk, but those barrels are going to the opposite field so far, and it’s tougher to homer that way. Also, his LA is down to 7.0, hence a lot of hard contact on the ground. That should help his Avg., and there he looks kind of unlucky as he has a .253 Avg vs. .286 xBA. He does have 6 steals, so he’s well on the way to the 30’s if he stays healthy.

Verdict: Buy

No one is cutting Tatis, obviously, so a “Buy” here really means I would jump at any trade discount. His value has obviously declined, but I also wouldn’t sell at all that much of a loss. The projection systems all expect mid 20’s homers from here forward, who am I to argue? 

Recent Yahoo Trades

Yordan Alvarez

Bryce Harper

Um, I wouldn’t trade him for Alvarez, but part of that is that a healthy Yordan is probably worth more than Tatis anyway. Harper though? I’d way rather Tatis.

Mike Trout

.234, 7 HR, 22 runs, 18 RBI, 2 steals

As I’m sure you know, Trout had a series for the ages in Yankee Stadium last week, rocking 5 homers in 4 games. He has an 22.5% BB% vs. 18.6% K%, a 25.9% Barrel%, and 92.9 EV that would actually tie for his 2nd best ever. And his top season was a small sample size 2020. We’re talking Mike Trout here with elite plate skills, hitting the ball as hard as ever. I truly love this as a fan, and I have him on one of my more expensive teams. Unfortunately, the rest of my team is lousy, so it might get wasted for me (I’m sure everyone is concerned about that, lol).

So what do we do here?

Verdict: Hold

My brain says sell, and my heart says buy, so I will weasel out and go Hold. After all, the ability to weasel out of things is what separates us from the animals (except weasels), according to Homer Simpson. I do think I’d take the early profit on Trout if for no other reason than he’s a major health risk at age 34 and given his recent past. But his underlying skills look so fantastic (.483 xwOBA), and he’s obviously got the skill set up there with the elite of the elite, it’s tough to let go.

Recent Yahoo Trades

Logan Gilbert

Jackson Chourio

Um…these would be really tough to turn down, that’s quite the pop in perceived value. Chourio, of course, hasn’t played yet and is still a couple weeks away, but he’s a 5 category stud when he hits the field. And Gilbert is a top 10 SP even with a sluggish start.

Brenton Doyle

.217, 1 HR, 5 steals

I really expected a turnaround from Doyle this season. Maybe not quite to his .260, 23 HR, 30 Steal level of 2024, but improved from his .233 15-18 of last year. Plus, he’s a great glove in CF, so the playing time seemed safe.

So far, not so good on anything but the steals. Part of what made Doyle a Fantasy stud was his improvement in plate skills as his K% dipped from the mid 30’s in 2023 to the mid 20’s the last two years. But he’s back to a 34.8% K%. He’s frankly doing nothing well, including in the field.

Verdict: Sell

I am probably bailing low here, but I see nothing encouraging. Perhaps most importantly, he’s losing PT as he’s sitting every third or fourth game as the Rockies have an endless supply of outfielders. Jake McCarthy is hitting worse than Doyle, but he’s got an excellent glove as well and can handle spacious CF in Coors when Doyle’s out. 

Recent Trades

Wilyer Abreu

There are a couple others listed that look like 1-ups for Cody Bellinger and Jesus Luzardo, but I assume there is a keeper element involved because those never would have made sense. 

If the Wilyer trade is in redraft. I would way prefer Wilyer. There’s possibly more to that one, too, as they were not that far apart in draft season, and Abreu is a rare bright spot in Boston. To me, the key issue here is the reduced playing time, as that’s something that just has not happened to Doyle in Colorado. I have him in my NFBC Auction Championship, and I would not cut him in a 15 format that deep. But I do bench him now at times.