Welcome back to Knights Of The RazzTable. This week I have two guests so sharp they’d be confiscated by TSA. You all know Coolwhip’s work from this very website and, of course, his fire RazzSlam graphics designs (this year’s may be the best yet). Also joining us is Kev Mahserejian, the Roto Surgeon. If you like spicy takes or need the fantasy version of a Brazilian butt lift, Kev’s your guy. Let’s dive into ADP 16-30 from the NFBC.
(Editor’s Note: We have a few spots left in Razzball Commenter Leagues drafting this month, including some money leagues, like this one for $20 against Truss drafting TONIGHT at 10 PM ET – Click to join!)
Q: One of the keys to a great fantasy season is getting a round 2 player who gives you round 1 value. Who do you like the most to do that and be drafted round 1 in 2025?
Whip: I think with Bryce Harper healthy again we get his last peak year of 5-category production, and with this season playing 1B his legs will stay fresher and maybe we get 35/15/.290 and 200 counters from him.
Kev: Bryce Harper. It’s a cheap answer since he goes so close to Round 1 (ADP 17) and has been a Round 1 in past, but he is in line for a monster season. Prior to injuring his elbow in 2022, Harper slashed .326/.391/.622 with 15 HR and 8 SB in 261 plate appearances. Last season, several months removed from Tommy John surgery, he sustained top-100 fantasy production on a per-game basis but failed to hit the highs of his peak ability. Now, another year removed from TJ and with the baseline production set in 2023, the potential of Harper’s fantasy output at full strength in a strong Phillies offense is immense. Yes, he is only 1B eligible rather than the more valuable OF, but five-category production is production no matter where you get it (see: Freeman, Freddie currently drafted Round 1).
My Take: Our panelists are in agreement. I, too, am Harping for Bryce. He’s probably a step behind his days of flirting with MVP status but if healthy, not by much. Starting off with Harper keeps almost any build style available to you, as well.
Q: Elly De La Cruz is a bit of a lightning rod coming into his sophomore season. The talent is immense but we saw some of his rawness exposed. Are you buying at the current cost?
Whip: With him being pushed up boards to very eary in the 2nd, I’m out. Way too early for me to spend that kind of draft capital. I typically target 2 established 5-cat producers in the first two rounds.
Kev: I am buying Elly De La Cruz around his current ADP despite a questionable profile and volatile 2023 production. Risk and reward go hand-in-hand but when you have multiple positives to bank on (as Elly does), buying in at his premium is tolerable. Elly is a plus-defensive shortstop which makes him invaluable to Cincinnati if his bat struggles while playing in one of the hitter-friendliest home parks in the MLB. Elly also has the benefit of playing for an extremely young team with lower expectations than perennial contenders who leave their youth at risk of being sent down or benched for a steady vet. Cruz may not hit towards the top of the order or play every game versus LHP at times but the month-to-month stat-line should be fruitful enough to look beyond ebbs and flows.
My Take: This is a tough call. The prospect hound in me has a sore neck from the EDLC’s potential. The realist in me can’t quite get past his slump in the second half. Especially when we have Elly De La Cruz at home 30 picks later in Oneil Cruz.
Q: The hot corner is a spot to consider prioritizing early. Which third baseman would you target in this range: Riley, Devers, or Henderson?
Whip: I like Gunnar’s cost in the 3rd, but I’m fine with passing on the other 2 in the 2nd. There are several mid-draft 3B I like the price for a lot better like Steer, Marte, Bohm, Hayes, and Parades.
Kev: 3B is a tough position this year given players who are either currently injured (Jung) or coming off of significant injuries (Arenado/Machado). Targeting one of the top 3B is wise. Between Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, and Gunnar Henderson, I easily cut out Henderson despite his added SS eligibility. Henderson should steal bases unlike Riley and Devers but the volume is unlikely to reach 20+ in a full season given what we’ve seen through his track record in MLB and MiLB. Also, Henderson’s batting average will likely remain several points lower than the other two unless we see substantial changes to his approach/discipline. Not to mention, Henderson missed a chunk of the past month+ with oblique issues. This now leaves us with Rafael Devers and Austin Riley where I have no preference in a vacuum and would solely interchange based on who you prefer throughout the draft. If average is likely a need based on your other preferences, draft Devers. If HR and RBI are more of a need, draft Riley.
My Take: Two straight offspeed offerings. I’ll have to bring the heat myself. While I’m always happy to land Devers, he’s settled into his career and is who he is. As someone who drafted a ton of Gunnar in 2023 and remembers his first two months I’m having trouble buying at the price, as well. Riley and his near 40/10 production perenially is an excellent third base building block.
