Knights Of The RazzTable rolls on with ADP 26-50, based on the NFBC’s ADP. We’re adding some tweaks this week with a who would you rather, in addition to our over/under rated game and thoughts on the keys to the range. My guests this week are Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros and Razzball’s own Blair Williams.
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First up, who would you rather draft: Cedric Mullins at 31 or Tyler O’Neill at 44?
Pat: This is a tough one. With Mullins, there’s a reasonable case to be made that we never saw his true ceiling before he was diagnosed with Crohn’s Disease. I don’t think his 2021 ceiling was a fluke, although he’s probably not going to make 675 plate appearances again. That said, O’Neill’s 30-HR power looks legit, and he’ll steal a dozen bases to boot. There’s some BA risk with him, but I’ll take O’Neill over Mullins at the slightly lower price.
Blair: I’d rather have Tyler O’Neill at 44. I think Mullins’ perceived value at 31 is tied to performances we didn’t see complete evidence of during his minor league career (28 combined homers from 2018-2020, all levels included).
We have a consensus on O’Neill and I tend to agree. There’s a lot to like about Mullins the man and his speed is what has pushed him up boards. My issue, as Blair mentioned, is that we haven’t seen the underlying metrics at the 2021 levels he managed. Particularly the OBP. You can’t steal second if you aren’t on first.
Matt Olson, new Brave, would be a good over or underrated at ADP 41.
Pat: Olson is slightly overrated at that price. A move to a more power-friendly park should be good for a few more home runs, but with no speed and no extraordinary BA potential, a third-round ADP for Olson is a little too rich.
Blair: I think he’s underrated, probably even before the trade to the Braves. If his 2021 contact is anything remotely close to what we see in 2022, he’ll be getting loads of RBIs in the Atlanta offense. People are probably worried that 25/26 year old Olson comes back and bats .210, but I don’t think we see indicators of that for 2022.
As much of a fan as I am of Olson I worry that a slide back to his career average K% in the 25% range will erode his supporting categories. The power will be there, especially in his home park. You need more than that in the top 50 or you get Miguel Sano’s profile.
Our final question: what do you think is the key to the range?
Pat: To me, this range is all about risk avoidance. I’m not willing to risk such an early pick on someone like Robbie Ray, whose control could go south at any time. I think the exemplar from this range is Tim Anderson, whose numbers are going to be highly bankable barring injury.
Blair: One thing I notice as draft season ramps up, is that too many drafters are relying on bargain stolen base targets. People are saying, “I’ll get Myles Straw or Tyler Wade at the end of a draft,” and they don’t realize that these guys could be out of a job come May, or get traded by July. I’d rather have an Ohtani/Albies/Marte start than a Vlad/Harper/Machado start and have to rely on Straw and Tapia to save my SB category.
Both are solid points. Score one for Pat for going right at Blair’s velo-crush. This is the range that makes or breaks many teams. Get the picks right and you’re likely getting first-round value. Strikeout and you’ll be dropping in the standings harder than the ruble. You also need to have your base laid in all categories besides saves. Even if you’re the one out of ten/twelve/fifteen teams that lands Myles Straw it comes with huge risk. If his PT isn’t what we hope you’ve just punted a category without using a player that boosts the other ones. Another surefire standings dropper. Thanks to Pat and Blair for lending their sage wisdom for what I consider the important range of the draft. We’ll be back with ADP 50-100 next week.
