Welcome back, drafters. We’re getting into the meat of the ADP range dealing with ADP 51-100 from NFBC. Joining me is Ryan Hallam from Fantasy Alarm and Razzball’s own Stan Son.
First up, would you rather have Eloy Jimenez at 61 or J.D. Martinez at 84?
Hallam: Martinez might be a bit safer option but I am buying into the hype on Jimenez. He is coming off an injury and didn’t look great at the end of last season, but in his first 177 games in 2019-2020 he had 45 home runs and had great minor league numbers. He is only 25 and hits in a good lineup in a good park and the division isn’t loaded with good pitching.
Son: Give me the discount with JD. While the ceiling of Eloy is intriguing, there’s risk due to injury concerns and the unknown. We’ve seen the floor and ceiling with JD so we have a better idea of the range of outcomes. JD is much older but he’s still only 33 years old. As it stands, both players are projected for similar numbers and they have similar batting profiles.
We’ve got a split in opinion from our pollsters. Both make solid points. I’m more likely to take a discount when the profile is similar.
Next, is Jonathan India over or under rated at 87?
Hallam: I can’t bring myself to take him at that ADP. The position is shallow and he does bring some speed/power combination, but I am not sold that he can do this again. The batting average also wasn’t bad but it wasn’t really high in the minors so I question if he will hit .270 again or come close to 20 home runs. He could be a nice 15/15 option at a fairly shallow position, but I am not buying at the 7/8 turn
Son: Underrated. He will likely bat leadoff, should score a ton of runs, and has 20/10 potential. The walk rate is over 10%, strikeout rate is manageable in the low 20s, and the ISO is a respectable .190ish. Now, he’s young so he will have to adjust to the adjustments that will surely come. That said, I think he will be able to do so because of his profile. The swinging strike rate was only 8.9% last season while the chase rate was only 25%. The contact rates were all good. He’s only 25 and entering his prime, so he could get better. There’s profit potential here.
Another split opinion. The key to India hitting his value is probably whether or not he chips in those dozen or so steals.
Last question: what do you think is the key to the range?
Hallam: To me the important part of this range is filling up some hitters at positions you didn’t grab early, hit on a reliable closer, and finish it up with a starting pitcher. There are a lot of good starting pitchers early and you should have grabbed one or two so you can wait in this range. Need five outfielders? Grab one or two here. Get that closer to solidify that category for you, and then you can come back for a pitcher like Luis Castillo or Alek Manoah as a solid third. But getting that offense in good shape on your roster is definitely the most important part of this ADP range.
Son: Hmmm, interesting question. I don’t think there is a key to the range because it depends on what you did in the first four rounds of the draft. In addition, everyone has different strengths and weaknesses in regards to identifying pitching or hitting. Sorry for the cop out answer but I didn’t know how else to do it. For example, there are 22 pitchers selected in this range, with 8 of them closers. Some may think the closer tier drops off after Jordan Romano so making sure to get one or two closers could be a must for some. Others, though, may be ok will Camilo Doval or Trevor Rogers so wouldn’t put a high priority in the 50-100 range. Same thing for starting pitching. Looking at the hitters, most of the positions get to the point where you’d likely want one for each position. That said, there are options at each position past 100. As Bruce Lee said, be like water.
Dock Son points for going all existential but he wins them back in quoting Bruce Lee. Both gents give some pearls in here.
