Welcome back to Knights Of The RazzTable, where we tackle chunks of ADP to get you ready for the decisions you’ll face in drafts. Let us cock your arsenal of fantasy knowledge to its fullest. Don’t go into drafts half-cocked. This week’s guests are Ryan Hallam of Fantasy Alarm and Razzball’s own Steve Paulo, the creator of STOMPER. We’re working with ADP 13-30 (nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball).
Q. This range is often a landing spot for would-be-studs with some significant question marks. Who’s more likely to return first-round value, Mike Trout or Fernando Tatis?
Hallam: This one is so tough. I am a huge Tatis fan, but it is hard to ignore the warts at this point. We know he is going to miss the first few weeks of the season after a PED suspension, and he has missed large chunks of other seasons with fairly significant injuries. On the flip side, Trout never plays a full season, has a diagnosed degenerative back condition, and is seven years older. That being said, he still hit 40 home runs in 119 games. I’m going to go with Tatis on this one for a couple of reasons. First is the age difference. Second, he is going to hit in one of the best batting orders in baseball.
Paulo: So, funny enough, STOMPER has both Tatis and Trout underperforming first-round value, with Tatis clocking in at mid-3rd, and Trout at early 4th round. So I’d have to go Tatis here, but if he makes his STOMPER numbers ($23 value, .241 / 34 / 85 / 82 / 20 in 120 games) he might disappoint (though, not by a lot). Trout is getting old, and his STOMPER line ($19 value, .229 / 40 / 92 / 88 / 2) has me out at ADP.
A: I never like when contestants agree since it’s usually the correct answer. All I’ll say is Mike Trout was the 1.01 staple because he held value better than anyone else. Not because he was ever the number one fantasy asset. That said, steals in the profile is a must in these early rounds so Tatis edges him out for me, as well.
Q. There are a number of pitchers floating in this range. Would you rather pick in the early second for a shot at Burnes/Cole or in the back half for Alcantara/deGrom? Follow up, on a scale of 1-10, how mad would you be if your device froze and the system auto-picked you a second-round reliever?
Hallam: I’m going to go with the front half here with Burnes/Cole. Not that the Brewers are going to be cruising to the playoffs this season, but the Rangers and Marlins again look to be teams that will be struggling to put up runs while at least the Yankees we know will give Cole plenty of run support. Cole seriously has a long ball problem, but his strikeout numbers are insane, and the talent is undeniable. Burnes is a workhorse that can pitch deep into games and also has elite strikeout numbers. Listen, I love Jacob deGrom, but we can’t ignore the injury concerns. He is now 34 years old and we have a history of players struggling in their first year with a new team after signing a big contract. Alcantara was incredible last year, but had an ERA almost a full run lower than his previous career best. If I am choosing from this group, I would love to see him repeat 2022’s performance before I choose guys with longer track records of elite performances before I trusted him. I have come around recently to pitchers being taken in the first three rounds, however, I am not in the market for a closer this soon. Only Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase fall in this ADP range and both were amazing last season, but the position is too volatile and one that you can find well above average play on the waiver wire during the year. I would be very upset if I came back to a closer drafted for me in Round 2.
Paulo: STOMPER doesn’t love Cole or deGrom this year after touting them both for several seasons. Of the four pitchers you mentioned in this range, STOMPER likes Burnes in the early 2nd, but Alcantara closer to the end of the 3rd, so if I’m going pitching in this range I like Burnes the most. The earliest RP I have by value is Devin Williams in the mid-6th round, so I would most likely rage quit. An easy 11 out of 10 on the mad scale.
A: Burnes over Cole is likely a trend we’ll see more of as drafts heat up. Both Ryan and Steve sound like they’d go that route if a pitcher was the prescription, as well. It’s hard to project the late SPs, deGrom for erratic innings and Alcantara for sample size. As for the RP question? The response judges were looking for was, “Throw my device into the screen of another, larger device.”
Q. Let’s assume you started a draft with an OF and aren’t ready to take a pitcher. Is it more important to get a first baseman or a third baseman here?
Hallam: I’m going to say it is more important to get a third baseman here. There are great guys at both positions, all with track records of success, but I still think that there are more first basemen that I would be content with as my starter than third basemen outside of this ADP range. Matt Olsen is long one of my favorite fantasy players and you can grab him at nearly pick 45. Jose Abreu has a long history of production and now moves to Houston. C.J. Cron bombs out in Coors. You can go young with Vinnie Pasquantino or many think Andrew Vaughn can break out this year. Go down even further and Anthony Rizzo, when healthy, is a solid contributor and Josh Bell has been underrated. Third base has some high quality, too, with Nolan Arenado in the 40s for ADP, but after that, there is a bunch of guys who crush your batting average, have extensive injury histories, or just don’t crush the ball with power like you like at the corner infield positions.
Paulo: OK, so when I look at the overall strength of 1B and 3B, I have 10 1B in the top 100 overall players, and just 8 3B. But I also have a lot of “value” 3B around 120-150 overall, so I would probably aim at 1B here and hope to land a reasonable 3B a few rounds later. In order, my preference would be Freeman, then Goldy, then Big Pete.
A: I see value in both arguments. Third base runs dry sooner, but the first baseman are likely to provide more value. It’s usually better to prioritize value over scarcity, in my opinion.
That makes Steve the narrower winner of the range. The committee has decided to forego any punishment as, like all 49er fans, Mr. Hallam has suffered enough recently. We’re getting into the heart of the draft next week with ADP 31-50, so don’t be a stranger.
