I’ve mentioned this before and might again if I do a Domingo Santana sleeper post, which I’m toying with and don’t end a sentence with with — dah!  The Brewers might be the first team in history that would have a lesser than 40% chance of scoring one run with the bases loaded and no outs due to their crazy strikeouts.  Everyone on the team Ks at an obscene rate.  It’s like their hitting coach is Rob Deer.  “Guys, you have to wait for your pitch.”  *ball bounces in dirt, three feet in front of Keon Broxton*  “Why didn’t you swing at that?  I said wait for the pitch, as in swing at every pitch when it gets to the plate — ball or strike!”  That’s Rob Deer, hitting coach.  If nothing else, it’s worth noting the team’s strikeouts for pitching streamers going against them when we get there.  The 2016 Brewers had the worst strikeout rate since 1902 with 25.5%.  The top 30 are all in the last ten years, so there’s definitely been a change in the game, but there ya go.  Keon Broxton might be the worst offender of swinging and missing on a team that is historically terrible (yes, at some point this is going to turn positive for Keon).  Losing Chris Carter’s 32% K-rate will help, but Keon Broxton’s K-rate was 36.1%.  “Terrific!  I love that aggressive approach!”  That’s Rob Deer again.  Broxton’s percentage of contact with balls outside the strike zone is 39.4%.  That’s historically bad.  Last year, the worst mark for qualified hitters was, once again, Chris Carter at 42.2%.  Of course, logic tells us if you’re not swinging at many pitches outside the strike zone, then it doesn’t matter.  Here, Broxton actually excels.  He swings at pitches outside the zone only 22.1% of the time, about the same as Matt Carpenter, Trout and Goldy.  There’s hope!  Finally!  “I’d like to see him swing more at pitcher pitches.”  Shut up, Rob Deer!  Then there’s the fact that he only makes contact with pitches inside the strike zone at a 76% rate, which would be the 2nd worst in the majors, tied with, you guessed it, Chris Carter.  Sigh.  So, what can we expect from Keon Broxton for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Chris Carter with 30 steals?  Yeah, maybe.  That’s interesting, right?  What are you hemming and hawing for?  Yes, it’s interesting!  If Broxton qualified, he would’ve had the third best hard contact rate in the majors last year.  Better than Trout, Miggy, Bautista, better than even his brother from a different mother who also has a different last name, Chris Carter!  Not just a great Hard Contact rate for last year (43.3%) but, over the last 15 years, it would’ve been a top 25 mark.  You don’t find many schmohawks on this list.  Lots of Papi, some Bonds and a ton of Mannys.  Hit the ball hard and it goes far.  Not to excite Sir Mix-A-Lot if he’s reading, but here comes the but.  Broxton hits a lot on the ground.  Not enough to kill his value, but if Chris Carter is a 40-homer hitter, Keon is a 20-homer hitter.  Like if Tom Cruise forgot his shoes, Broxton just doesn’t get enough lift.  His ground balls are on par with Wil Myers, who just hit 28 homers, but Broxton’s fly ball rate is closer to Starlin Castro, who hit 21 HRs last year, but with a much lesser Hard Contact rate.  Potatoes to chips, Broxton is a 20-homer hitter that could go as high as 25+ and low as 15.  Now, for the speed, he has 35-steal ability.  Of course, he needs to get on base to get there, which, besides the Ks, may happen due to his ability to lay off bad pitches.  Broxton needs to walk a tightrope, but he could be the breakout of the season and I’m going to draft him everywhere.  For 2017, I’ll give him the projections of 64/18/71/.237/31 in 490 ABs.

 
  1. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Very pumped for Keon – I have a feeling he may even go undrafted / in reserve round of some leagues. Nothing but upside – and since he seems to be somewhat streaky due to the Ks, maybe a great guy to plug in and out based on matchups and hot streaks.

  2. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    Would you trade Starling Marte for Eric Hosmer straight up?

    • Scott Kimmel says:
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      Grey,

      i am looking to trade Duvall. WOuld you trade DUvall for Blackmon?

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @Scott Kimmel:
        I would trade Duvall for Blackmon..Blackmon is the better overall player of the two.

    • Mrs. Featherbottom says:
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      @Scott Kimmel: NICE!

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        is it a fair offer Featherbottom?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Scott Kimmel: I would not trade Marte for Hosmer. Marte is a much better overall player.

  3. swaggerjackers says:
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    I like the potential here. What kind of OBP would you expect?

  4. JoeG414 says:
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    Brewers OF Keon Broxton, arrested in Tampa on trespass charge last month, pleaded no contest Monday. Adjudication withheld, pre-trial deal.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JoeG414: Yeah, saw that… He told the cops “You ain’t sh*t without your badges!” That’s a good way to get arrested

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @Grey: I read he was in fist fight on that same night..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I wonder if he swung and missed

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            @Grey: lol, the report said his face looked pretty messed up, and he was very drunk..

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Jean Segura said, try taking Braun’s bat to your head

              • Malicious Phenoms says:
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                @Grey:
                I still Braun hit him on purpose, but prolly not..

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ha

          • Doc says:
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            @Grey: lolololol

  5. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    I think I know where you stand on this, but $33 Rizzo or $10 Dahl + $11 Desmond (keep forever league, +$3 inflation)?

  6. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Your thoughts on Sonny Gray for 2017..Bounce back kinda o guy or was last years numbers the beginning of the end of Sonny..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not worth the aggravation likely, but I haven’t done my due diligence on him yet

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @Grey: OK I’ll wait for 2017 Grey to get back to me..

  7. nick the dick says:
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    TC?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Went to see Patriot’s Day last night, which was solid, haven’t watched yet… I do have a pick to win from last week though… Shirley, which might be awful if she went out last night

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: So Boston…..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          The Q&A afterwards was Marky Mark talking about doing Boston Strong like Boston would’ve wanted it… Big fahkin’ ass-kiss fest!

      • nick the dick says:
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        @Grey: Nah, that’s a great pick I like her. Can’t believe you’re yoinking the Asian from me honestly, she might have been my pick, touche’. I like Sheldon, the some kinda spanish guy and my heavy sleeper is the Haitian guy, although I don’t think he has the personality to stick around too long.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sheldon was my 2nd pick(!) and I was thinking the Haitian too, but I didn’t love how he performed in the 1st episode, which might mean nothing by this point…. I think sometimes they keep a lot of personality around and then award the quiet beast — like Kevin that one season and the black gay guy that other season

          • nick the dick says:
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            @Grey: Great facial hair thinks alike! For sure though, the Haitian is kinda middle of the road so far but I like that about him, the quiet storm. I agree, they’ll keep around people like John Tesar, Sam, Casey, Katsuji etc for the entertainment, plus most of them are solid, but hopefully letting guys like Hait (I guess that’s what we’ll call him) stick around. I want that annoying Amanda girl canned like I did in her season, just irks me….it’s settled, Shirley and Sheldon. Man, that bowl of hug!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I wanted to get hugged by that so bad my eyes got watery! I kinda hate Casey, she feels like a hack that is only on bc she’s attractive

              • nick the dick says:
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                @Grey: Totes on Casey, and I don’t even find her the most attractive. Although last nights ep, her dish sounded great and turned out great so maybe there’s some fire in her smoke

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Agreed, she’s too Jennifer Aniston-y for me

                  • nick the dick says:
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                    @Grey: Spot on. Strutting around like her HPV don’t stank

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      All HPV stank! That should be a reality show title

  8. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Interesting bit of trivia for you.

    In 2016 Marcel Ozuna, stats are since 1901, became just the 23 CF in baseball to not steal a base all season long.

    CF Seasons with No Stolen Bases:

    Player Year Tm PA 3B
    Marcell Ozuna 2016 MIA 553 5
    Ken Griffey 2005 CIN 555 0
    Juan Gonzalez 1992 TEX 632 2
    Chet Lemon 1987 DET 553 3
    Chet Lemon 1985 DET 575 4
    Tony Armas 1983 BOS 613 2
    Chet Lemon 1983 DET 573 5
    Jerry Morales 1977 CHC 538 5
    Mickey Stanley 1973 DET 661 5
    Bobby Thomson 1958 CHC 614 5
    Gus Bell 1957 CIN 555 3
    Larry Doby 1956 CHW 619 3
    Gus Bell 1953 CIN 665 5
    Joe DiMaggio 1951 NYY 482 4
    Joe DiMaggio 1950 NYY 606 10
    Wally Judnich 1946 SLB 573 4
    Lloyd Waner 1939 PIT 410 3
    Hank Leiber 1935 NYG 680 4
    Len Koenecke 1935 BRO 374 2
    Mule Haas 1933 CHW 682 4
    Mule Haas 1931 PHA 489 7
    Mule Haas 1929 PHA 655 9

    SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
    Since 1901.
    Qualified position players with 50+% of games in CF.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, that is crazy… I wonder how Mule got his name

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        @Grey:
        George ‘Mule” Haas got the nickname “Mule” from sportswriter Zipp Newman of the Birmingham Age Herald in 1925, while playing for the Birmingham Barons. Mule won a game with a home run and the headline in the paper read “Home Run Kick By Mule Haas Wins Game For Barons”. Physically, Mule was a big guy for his time: 6 feet 2 inches, 170 pounds, batted left handed, threw right handed.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Damn, I would’ve been a big guy in the 1920s!

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            @Grey:
            LOL, we all would have been…I was one of the biggest kids in my class in HS and I was only 5’9″, 165

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha!

  9. Big Odio says:
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    Hard to imagine a guy that will be 27 in May turning around his approach. Taking a quick glance at his numbers and hes got gutter contact rates that combined with his K rate will have some epic cases of the slumpees. On the flip side though he kills lefties and when he’s hot will be a great schmotato. I agree with your final stat line but will be a frustrating guy to own. In an RCL hell be passed around like a jug of carlo rossi, in a deep league hell be an all year platoony tunes outfielder, and in dfs be a matchups/ ballpark darling.

    And is it me or does he sound like a shoe. I git me a new pair of them keon broxtons! Let’s hear from our resident shoe enthusiast Dr. NOISE.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, maybe on RCL prediction, it really depends on what he does out of the gate… If he’s good in April, I could see him lasting a while, but the slumps maybe very pronounced, which could be his death

    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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      @Big Odio: Yo, that new Broxton collab drops in April!…..yeah that works.

      All I know is the Pirates gave him away so he should be dominant shortly.

  10. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    In that keep 7 league, I was now offered for my $30 Kershaw:

    $10 Dahl, $9 Desmond, plus one of $23 Votto or $4 Obudel.

    1. Would you pull the trigger on either of those versions of the deal?

    2. Does this deal beat giving Kershaw for $10 JD Mart $23 Blackmon and $19 Strasburg?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Dahl, Desmond and Votto

  11. Mrs. Featherbottom says:
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    I always like a Brewers post. Methinks they move more than just Braun from the OF, too many pieces.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, could be… I think Braun moves in July

      • Mrs. Featherbottom says:
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        @Grey: Maybe – hopefully for an SP. I’m guessing that Scooter and Domingo are moved before him – dependent on how Rymer is doing with rehab.

        • Mrs. Featherbottom says:
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          @Mrs. Featherbottom: Actually just saw that he is now on the CWS.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          The Brewers are in that weird place like the Rockies, where do you go after pitching even though your park kills pitchers? Only certain types of SPs?

  12. Clint says:
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    Just got offered Kershaw for my Betts straight up in a 14 team h2h pts dynasty league. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Betts

  13. DBo says:
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    Dynasty league trade, Strasburg or Posey + Judge?

    Currently have Posey, G Sanchez, Hedges and Mesoraco at C. OF of Blackmon, JD, Trumbo, D Santana (ML OF Meadows, Judge, O’Brien). SP of Duffy, Hamels, Lester, Gausman, Stroman, Estrada (ML SP Berrios, Y Alvarez). Thanks in advance!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Posey side

  14. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Grey. Better keeper option in a head to head points league: Blackmon or Correra? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Correa

  15. Doc says:
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    T-shirt idea:
    Rob Deer is my batting coach

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like it! With the title, “Swingers” Or no?

      • Doc says:
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        @Grey: Sounds good, and maybe a limited edition with “I swing for the fences every time, baby” on the back

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha!

  16. BringBackPluto says:
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    I have a couple of Contract/Keeper Leagues with openings and I’d love to get some Razzball blood in there… $50 11-tm (there will be a dispersal draft here of some pretty sick assets) and a $100 12-tm that’s solid. Hit me up at [email protected] for more info!

  17. nightpandas says:
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    Hello Christmas Grey…earliest we have spoken…

    offseason trades upon us early this year, 15 team keep 11 roto league

    My keepers are looking like: Rizzo, Dozier, Correa, Dahl, Crush, Mazara, Greinke, Harvey, Gausman, W Davis and one of Matz/Brinson/Sal Perez/Weaver/Gurriel

    Got an offer of Pollock for Harvey…would you take it?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… Hey, nightpandas! I’d take Pollock

  18. Shits&Giggles says:
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    It’s way to early but where do you see Stanton going in the 2017 drafts. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mid-teens, early 20s

  19. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    $11 Franco or $10 Dahl in a keep forever league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Dahl

  20. Swfcdan says:
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    “So, what can we expect from Keon Broxton for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes a sleeper?”

    Copy and paste error there Grey dude!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      If I copied and pasted, it would be right from previous posts…

  21. JoeG414 says:
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    T.Turner or Odor ? 6×6 roto

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Odor, but close

  22. I think it is time for them to roll with Brinson, Keon and Domingo… we might have been a year early on Santana…I think I’m liking him for THIS Sunday and NEXT Sunday…

    Turn Braun into 3/4 prospects…

    Avoiding the K will be a challenge for Keon…but he doesn’t seem one to back down from a fight…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed, love to see that happen and I’m ready to get back in on Sunday too

  23. Joey says:
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    Hi Grey,

    In a 12 team, H2H Keeper league where we keep 20 MLBers plus 8 in the minors, I have depth at 3B and am weak at 2B. Have 2 offers on the table:

    My Justin Turner for his Matt Carpenter
    or
    My Jung-Ho Kang for his Neil Walker

    Which one should I pursue?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Both offers are fair… I’d take Walker

  24. Ryan says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Dynasty league. Bryant/Abreu or Harper/Boggy. Who wins?

    Thanks

    Ryan

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Boggy?

      • Ryan says:
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        @Grey: sorry Xander Bogaerts

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Bryce, that’s really tough call though

  25. Shits&Giggles says:
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    Hi Grey. Keeper question. Who would YOU rather have.Bogaerts for $18 or Murphy for $5. Both fill the 2b/ss slot. Murphy is eligible at 1b and 3b a plus. I already have Lindor and Altuve. Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Murphy

      • Shits&Giggles says:
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        @Grey: thanks

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  26. DBo says:
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    Dynasty salary cap league, Posey/Judge/Gausman or Scherzer? Thanks in advance!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Scherzer

  27. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Here’s an interesting FG projections comparison:

    Player 1: .275, 27 HR, ~80 R, ~90 RBI, 2-3 SB
    Player 2: .272, 27 HR, ~80 R, ~90 RBI, 2-3 SB

    P1 is JD Mart (likely ranked as a top 10 OF)
    P2 is Maikel Franco (likely ranked outside of top 10 3B by some).

    I think JDM has more power upside, but it makes me a lot more into Franco than I had been!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I’m a big fan of Maikel…. He’s super young and talented

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: can’t believe he’s only 24!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I know!

  28. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    I am trying to acquire Lucroy. Which pitcher should I offer for him: Quintana, SNell or Duffy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Snell

  29. NL only, 4×4 roto, 11 team $100 auction minus cost of keepers. Can protect up to 10 of 23 man roster. 9 pitchers 14 position 5 OF 2 C. Who would you protect? B. Hamilton 9.50, Braun 10.50, Cargo 7.50, J. Pederson 7.50, K. Broxton 5.00,F. Freeman 11.50, M. Franco 10.00, C.Bryant 13.00, D. Dietrich 5.00, Y. Molina 4.50, Ottavino 5.00, Scherzer 14.00, Matz 6,50, Cole 9.00, Conley 5.00
    Thanks
    JW

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not Molina, Franco, Dietrich, Conley, Broxton

Comments are closed.