I, Albert Lang, have been a Kelly Johnson fan, for no real reason, for some time now. I seem to be the only one. ESPN has him in the 200s, and his ADP is at 253. Certainly his 2011 (.222/.304/.413) did nothing to engender him to fantasy players, but I think this just makes him a steal for 2012.

Kelly Johnson has what is known as a reverse platoon split. Basically, lefty batters tend to do better against right handers, but that’s not the case with Johnson.

For his career, Johnson has hit .287/.343/.465 against lefties and .249/.343/.431 against righties and he has a .347 BABIP against southpaws and .296 against righties. Last year, he had a .271 BABIP against lefties and .280 BABIP against righties. There’s a slight chance that Johnson just got a little lucky in his previous 726 plate appearances against southpaws, but I’m going to bet that the unlucky part was the 161 PAs he had against lefties in 2011. At just 30, we wouldn’t expect his batted ball rates to fall off a cliff.

Obviously, it follows that Johnson’s BABIP was far lower in 2011 than historically (.311 for his career, just .277 last year). However he hit pretty much the same amount of ground balls, line drives and fly balls as he has in the past. I expect that BABIP to bounce back and his average to come with it.

While Johnson swung at a few more pitches outside of the strike zone in 2011, the biggest surprise in his plate discipline is that his contact rate on strikes went way down. It was 79.8% last year, an incredible drop from his average (87.2%) and previous low (86.9%).

Johnson will bounce back to hit in the .250s with 18-22 HRs, 15+ SBs and a healthy amount of runs and RBIs. When you think about up the middle values in fantasy baseball, you should be targeting Johnson. In addition, the Blue Jays had the 8th most steals last season, something tells me Johnson might run a bit more than expected.

Let’s just say:  I’d rather have Johnson than Ty Wigginton, Aaron Hill, Jemile Weeks, Dustin Ackley, Danny Espinosa, and many others.

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Awesomus Maximus
Awesomus Maximus
10 years ago

Thanks for all the well wishes, everybody.

Was about to go home today, but after transferring to the wheelchair, I threw up the last two days worth of food. The nurse practitioner said he couldn’t let me walk out the door like that, so I’m locked up for one more night.

Also, I haven’t been watching any TV, so no Project Runway spoilers… or at least use a good “SPOILER TAG” so I can avoid it, por favor. Gracias, la Sociedad de mis amigos.

Albert Lang
10 years ago

Ah- thanks for reading and inquiring about the pup-shes a sweetie.

Totally missed the NYE reference, I must admit I try to avoid that holliday

TheNewGuy
TheNewGuy
10 years ago

Not relevant to K-Jo but would appreciate your views.

Trying to decide on my catching situation for next year in my keeper league. Ended the year with both Wieters and Avila (both FA pickups), and now have to decide which (only play 1C) if any are worth keeping, or could I get them both cheaper at auction.

Both currently cost $6 so a 1 yr contract would cost $9, or 2 years for $12. Are either of them worth a contract or should I be able to get them cheaper at draft? Who do you like the most going forward, Avilas consistency or Wieters upside.

Oh and its an OBP league. Thanks.

Terrence Mann
Terrence Mann
10 years ago

Fair enough. I would also include Ackley in that group. I wouldn’t reach for any of those guys but if I more or less punt 2B, they’re all suitable late round options along with Walker, Hill, etc.

I guess my biggest point is that I’d go with someone with the most upside late in the draft and settle for Kelly Johnson if my upside guys are gone.

Terrence Mann
Terrence Mann
10 years ago

Nothing wrong with a late flier in Johnson but I wouldn’t take him over the younger guys you mention at the end. Weeks and Espinosa are just getting started. I wouldn’t reach for them, either, but they’re better late options. jmo

RandomItalicizedVoice
RandomItalicizedVoice
10 years ago

Streaky players have more value in H2H?? Hmmm….I always thought the opposite (and still do), myself. I feel like streaky players actually cause more damage in H2H when they go weeks at a time with nearly zero production. Whereas in roto, the bottom line is final numbers. It doesn’t matter what combination the numbers get produced in…they all add up at the end.

The Talented Mr. Dope Man
The Talented Mr. Dope Man
10 years ago

It would be nice if they could fit him in the 2-hole, however i think he’s destined for the bottom of that order.

If he was hitting in front of lawrie, bautista, etc.. his value would definitely increase.

Tony
10 years ago

I agree big AL, he’s fairly underrated, at least for where you can usually snag hi in drafts.

He has his extremely hot streaks too, where if you can catch them in H2H he’s very nice to carry you during certain weeks.