Ya know what I’m finding myself keen on more than in years past? Using the phrase ‘keen on?’ Close, but no. Guys who don’t strike out much and hit for a nice average. Getting all mature in my fantasy baseball wonts. Like a big ol’ smart nerd! Not a dumb nerd like someone who plays fantasy baseball and keeps going after guys who will hit .210 because they’re sexy. Hey, one love to Jack Suwinski, but I’m eyeing his teammate, Ke’Bryan Hayes. Ke? O’Ke! (By the way, I talk about maturity, then I go full horny on the nips of a Jordan Walker sleeper post like I’m a 12-year-old who just discovered the opposite sex. By the by, Jordan Walker is way closer in age to a 12-year-old than I am to him. Ha, what on earth. ACKSUALLY, a 12-year-old and the 26-year-old Ke’Bryan Hayes are closer too. Eff me, I’m old.) Last year, Ke’Bryan Hayes went 15/10/.271. Hit the snooze button, we’re going back to sleep! Not so fast, Rip Van Winkle. This is a fine wine, and like that Burgundy, we’re going to have let it breathe. So, what can we expect from Ke’Bryan Hayes for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I began to roll out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Ke’Bryan Hayes sleeper:
Ke’Bryan Hayes had a 13.2 Launch Angle last year, and a 39% fly ball rate. So, kinda meh, right? You fell for it! Not meh! No meh! Here’s another 3rd baseman: 39.3% FB% and a 12.4 Launch Angle. Any guesses? No, no, no, no. It’s Rafael Devers. Hello, beautiful. Devers hits the ball harder and kills him in HR/FB%. They’re not the same, but Hayes is not a ground ball machine anymore. The fear, I suppose, is he’ll revert to being a ground ball machine again. That’s happened before. Christian Yelich comes to mind, as a guy who hit grounders, then hit fly balls, then went back to grounders. But even Yelich had a year or three in there where he hit some homers. Not saying he’s Devers anyway, Hayes has speed, Devers does not.
Wow, is that what I’m saying? Is Ke’Bryan Hayes actually Rafael Devers but with speed? Ha, no. I’m not saying that. He’ll hit for a better average than Devers! Okay, slightly joking, but Hayes should hit for a decent average. A 19.8% strikeout rate in his third year, and he’s only 26. He can get better by not chasing pitches, and he does make good contact when the ball’s in the zone. He was top 10% with contact on strikes and he was top 7% on exit velocity. He gets a pitch and hits it hard. Was kinda kidding before about the Devers comparisons, but a guy who does seem comparable, except will make worse contact is:
Randy Arozarena. One guy will likely be projected for 20/20/.255 (the Randy guy), and another guy (the Ke’Bryan guy) will be projected for 20-ish homers and stole 20 bags in 2022 and will hit .280-ish. Yes, The Rice Bowl has done it already, multiple times even, but that’s why Ke’Bryan Hayes is being drafted around 175th overall. He’s never done it. The unknown gets the discount. Of course, can he steal 20 bags again? Well, with the rule changes, anyone can, and I’m not writing off a guy who has done it before, but Hayes does seem like he’s slowed a bit. Okay, a lot bit. He went from 209th in sprint speed to 332nd. Like a very slow chariot filled with ladies, he’s dragging molasses. Still, those rules changes! Also, on a side note about Hayes and a bunch of the sleepers so far, know what I’m seeing they have in common? A lot of them are hitting 2nd or 3rd. Once guys sign and things change, lineups could change, but the Pirates are buying free agents? Sure, bro. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Ke’Bryan Hayes projections of 78/21/73/.279/17 in 557 ABs with a chance for much more.
