Has anyone wondered before if Josh Rojas was simply the Latin Josh Reddick or is Josh Rojaspinga an entirely different player who hates that you confused him with Josh Rojas? These are the questions that keep me up at night. That and do pandas shorten their names to P&A’s in texts because they are lazy? Imagine my head is a spaghetti squash that’s totally baked and now you’re scraping out faux noodles that are curly-Q’s and the Q’s stand for questions. Last year, Josh Rojas just exceeded his rookie eligibility, gathering 17/2/16/.217/4 in 138 ABs, which is about six weeks of juiced ball as The Ghost of Abner Doubleday once called it, and that’s about a quarter of the season, so Rojas is an 8-homer, 16-steal guy? Oh, Mr. Prorater is ashen with embarrassment. Please say there’s more. Of course there’s more! It’s why I’ve trekked you up the side of Sleeper Mountain with nothing but a can of beans and one undersized sleeping bag! So, what can we expect from Josh Rojas for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Josh Rojas is nothing like Josh Reddick or Josh Rojaspinga, thankfully. (Unless Rojaspingas are your thing, which is fine, we do not judge here.) Last year’s major league cup of coffee is only telling one small sliver of the story. It’s more like Sanka. His entire year last year when combining Double and Triple-A was 25 homers, 37 steals and around a .300 average. I’m sorry, you foxy now, huh? He regularly had a 38% fly ball rate in the minors, and a 15% HR/FB, that’s essentially Charlie Blackmon’s 2019 when he hit 32 homers. That feels high, so let’s just say 33% fly ball rate, which feels low, but that was his rate after his call-up when he struggled. With a 15% HR/FB, that will still produce around 18 homers. Eighteen home runs is not exactly the meow’s cat, but if it’s coming with speed, it’s more than doable. So…speed? He had about the same sprint speed last year as Jarrod Dyson. Smaller sample, but I don’t think someone who comes with 37 steals across three levels is just going to stop running. He had 49 attempts, by the by. This is actually a good thing in my spaghetti squash brain. He knows he has to make himself appear valuable to the team and the niche he’s carved out is running plus the occasional over-the-fence bazinga. As for his .217 average in one-hundred and thirty-eight how’s your fathers, I’m gonna write it off completely. He was not who he is. His strikeout rate doubled from the minors and he appeared to be pressing. Now, if he was just overmatched, then he won’t make the team out of Spring Training and this post will be forever ignored. Thanks for reading, don’t tell anyone you did! However, he’s going to be 26 years old in June and it’s now or never for him. Diamondbacks know it; he knows it. So, he will get an opportunity, and I think he can be very valuable with it. Plus, he is so cheap in drafts you cannot go wrong with a flyer on him. Currently seeing him drafted around 275th overall, that’s about a 150 spots later than I could see him being worth. For 2020, I’ll give Josh Rojas projections of 75/16/62/.268/24 in 556 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. Hernan says:
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    Well, well, well…., it seems steamer is reading your posts, cause they just updated their projections to almost identical to yours…., no reason for dbacks not to put him in lead off spot, with that healthy 11.5 % walk rate, 23% line drive rate, 42% hard contact (per baseball savant)…., the obvious outlier here is BA…., love this post!!!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Hernan! Did their projections really change? That’s surprising, if so… They usually come out in November and never move, no matter what

      • Darren says:
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        Yeah I printed out their projections a few days ago for an early draft and he was projected for 321 ABs. Now 549. I think they do volume adjustments through the offseason based on opportunity. Maybe when Souza was DFA’d his ABs were adjusted up?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Maybe, not sure… I think you’re talking about Fangraphs/Steamer projections, which are different than Steamer… Steamer doesn’t do playing time

          • Darren says:
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            Yes, that is where I get my steamer projections… maybe that is what Hernan was referring, too.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Gotcha, yeah, that’s Fangraphs changing them… Like how we do Steamer/Razzball projections which will be different too… Steamer gives rates, projections are then figured out

      • Hernan says:
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        YUP, my friend, I’m drafting another team, got him in the 280s and when I went to check, to add his stats to my counter, instead of the 75 games, 8 HRs/12 steals , now everything is doubled, 130 something games….

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Gotcha, yeah, see what I said to Darren

  2. Nitro says:
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    I really appreciate all of your sleeper posts during this dead part of the baseball year.

    I have a trade question for you.
    My $30 B Snell for his $20 P Alonso. It is a keeper forever league with a 40 man roster and a $400 budget. What do you think?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I’d want Alonso

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem!

      Agree with DT

  3. The Great Knoche says:
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    Depends who they sign to play where. They still need an outfielder or 2nd baseman because Marte can’t play both at the same time… I think.

    As long as they don’t sign a big time corner outfielder he should start in right field.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hope so! And, yeah, for sure, these are all with a grain of salt if a team signs someone like what happened to Berti the day after I posted his

      • Hernan says:
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        I think the problem for Rojas is if they sign 2 guys, like last year, they got Wilmer Flores and Adam Jones, still Christian Walker got his chance and you know the rest,,,., it seems they have 2 spots to fill, wether it is 2B/CF or 2B/RF, Marte fills either CF or 2B, and Rojas plus someone like didi or even a Kevin pillar go to the other 2 spots, if they get 2 guys then it’s a crapshoot for Rojas to get playing time

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          In the end, Rojas needs to hit in March and April otherwise he’ll be in trouble… If he hits early, he’ll be fine

      • andrew edenbaum says:
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        What happened to Berti ?

        • Sweatpants Nation says:
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          He got Villar-ed. Now Berti won’t lead off

          • andrew edenbaum says:
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            Berti was pretty good last year. Diaz was less than impressive. Can’t imagine Berti won’t be given the green light. Villar can hit 3d. Cooper, Anderson, Aguilar, Alfaro, Rojas ? Seems like a good drafting opportunity in Draft Champions. Waiting forBaseball Forecaster.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I still like Berti, but some shine off him with Villar there

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          What Sweatpants said

      • andrew edenbaum says:
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        Room for Villar , Berti, and Anderson to start and play regularly. Ramirez should start over Brinson, a complete bust.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Brinson shouldn’t start, but if he does even a little bit it hurts Berti

  4. Dong Show says:
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    Dynasty question Grey:

    Guy is offering me his Sale for My Blackmon and Bauer.

    I don’t hate it, because I have this fear of Blackmon falling off a cliff hard and thus tanking his value (plus he’s not great outside of Coors) and Bauer in Cincy still scares me with that park and his proneness to giving up homers. Blackmon also says that as the year goes on, his body takes a major beating due to Coors altitude.

    I have concerns over Sales health last two years, but he’s an absolute stud when on and his value is pretty low to buy right now. I think it’s a fair offer, but I’m uncomfortable giving up two guys who I at least know are healthy and can produce.

    What is your take on this trade?

    Thanks as always Grey!

    • CMUTIMMAH says:
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      Bauer’s stock rose last year, he has another year under his belt to build up arm strength and last deep into the season.

      Blackmon is scary because you want to project his decline date?

      If I am trading a top 25 guy, I want 2 guys with upside or a position swap. I definitely don’t want to trade a top 25 guy AND an up and coming pitcher for Sale’s health problems recently. Remember, Sale’s mechanics were a huge concern since he was drafted. Might finally be catching up with him.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        Bauer’s stock rose last year? Um…do you remember 2018? And he’s had over 175IP every year since 2015. Anyhoo….I still rate Blackmon ahead of Sale myself so that’s the deciding factor for me.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I’d want the Blackmon side, not all that close for me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Blackmon greater than or at least equal to Sale, Bauer puts it way over top

      • Dong Show says:
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        Thanks Grey and all others. This is what I thought. I countered with Blackmon and Brusdar and he wasn’t interested in that. I too feel like Blackmon and Sale are of similar values. I’m not at all comfortable with both guys in this so all this talk is definitely adding up to a no.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, gotcha

        • Phil says:
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          Yeah, I wouldn’t trade Blackmon AND Bauer for Sale. I think Blackmon for Sale straight is fair, but I’d lean more for the hitter in Coors than Sale and his perennial 2nd half skids and propensity for injury. I think you’re better off with Chazz Noir and Bauer Power.

          • Dong Show says:
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            Thanks Phil, yep I decided to hold on my end. Like everyone said, it just doesn’t add up on my end.

            Appreciate the feedback!

  5. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    I’d stick with the healthy Blackman and Bauer.

  6. The Great Knoche says:
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    Tom Murphy and Narvaez value going up. Pina’s going down.

    • Dave D says:
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      Ha, so true! I think somebody needs to draft another C in the next few rounds.

      Tom Murphy? The name sounds familiar.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Always had big time love for Murphy, wish I owned him!

        • Dave D says:
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          His splits are crazy lopsided. He’s a must start vs LHP. Hopefully he improves against RHP with more at bats this year

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            True… But in a deep league, he’s totally fine for 17 HRs, .220

            • Dave D says:
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              I think he’s more like a 24/65 guy if he gets 400+ ABs but average dips to, yeah, .230ish

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                .230ish feels like ceiling, tbh, but I don’t mind him

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ugh…

      Okay, since I have you guys, have you looked at the roster grid? Is it a mess for you? With guys missing from their positions?

      • Dave D says:
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        Yeah, it’s frustrating, but you can go in draft room and to “roster” and change your guys position. You can move Marte to 2B. I moved Machado to SS.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If I drop down menu on Marte it says Res — Unless I have to go to RES then over to 2B, what a pain — not to mention, it says Marte in 2B slot on draft board, but OF on roster grid…

          • Dave D says:
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            Its a pain for sure. On my Mac it shows correctly but my iPhone always changes color but leaves guy in position where he played most games, not where I put him.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I’d just like some kind of ability to move them on the actual roster grid, I guess… Something that better illustrates the team, bc I have (according to them) 8 OFs and zero 3Bs, which isn’t true at all

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, I tried to move Brian Anderson to bench then to 3B, and I couldn’t do it

          • Dave D says:
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            You have to put guys on the bench first. You can put all your first string guys on reserve to make room, then put your backups into whatever position.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, that’s a pain, but got it now… The roster grid page still doesn’t reflect the team, but not sure how you fix that for guys like Fletcher

          • think you have to vacate the spot you want to move a player to 1st – then the drop down will show other postions. I reserved Brujan and moved Simmons to MI

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        I was fortunate that everyone I drafted actually lined up best where they put them.

        You have to move all the people to reserve you want to move before putting them back where you want them. It only lets you put them in open positions they are eligible for.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Right, but the roster grid is still a mess

          • The Great Knoche says:
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            Get a notebook.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              You time traveler to days of paper and pen?

              • The Great Knoche says:
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                Quill and paper.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’m dipping my feather boa into ink and it’s not working

                  • The Great Knoche says:
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                    Are you wearing Cougs’ outfits again?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      After the house renovation, we need to share outfits, Thursdays are her days

      • Huffin Gas says:
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        Reading all of the comments in the sleeper posts about your early drafts makes me feel like I gots to draft something, anything. Hell, if I can find a few co-workers I’d gladly do a draft for expired condiment bottles in the office refrigerator right now.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, loving that mayo pick in the 3rd!

      • Hernan says:
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        Mine, when I hit “roster grid” it says, “rosters not available “…., maybe I have to start all over again….

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, that’s even worse!

  7. Donkey Teeth

    Donkey Teeth says:
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    Your head sounds more like a spaghetti squash than a butternut squash

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Okay…But what if my brain is spaghetti squash, but that’s so bad to have it’s actually butternut squash?

      • Donkey Teeth

        Donkey Teeth says:
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        I’m a squash expert and you’ve lost me!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sorry will be better

  8. Squat Cobblers says:
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    Love Rojas. Got sniped on him already. May need to move him up me board.

    After pick 500, do any of these SPs grab your Johnsonville?

    Joe Ross
    Duffy
    Danile Norris
    M Fulmer
    Conner Menez
    Joe Ross
    Quantrill
    Alec Mills
    Thornton
    Justin Dunn
    Kyle Wright
    Bryse Wilson
    Elieser Hernandez

    Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Truly? No… Forced to choose? Duffy, Elieser, Wilson, and the 2nd Ross, forget the 1st one

      • Squat Cobblers says:
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        Ha Thanks Grizzle! I need an editor!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, No problem

  9. Dave D says:
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    Well, I did the closest thing possible just now to drafting Ken Griffey Sr. and Jr. b2b. One is too old, one too young. Neither will likely play much together on my roster.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, that’s hilarious… I agree, neither will do much, but I bet Sr. outperforms Jr.

      • The Great Knoche says:
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        Yup. Doubt Wander is up until late if at all.

        Made my choice for has been backup 1B easy though. Come on Miggy let’s get 400ABs

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Sorry, just realized I was on the clock, for some reason my draft window was five spots earlier…

          Miggy is such a snooze

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Oh, I didn’t realize it’s a 2-hour clock now? Whoa

            • The Great Knoche says:
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              Yes, he’s a snooze, but who else they gonna play if he’s healthy. Plus he won’t see my lineup unless two guys get injured…

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Oh, he’ll play all the time if he’s healthy… Will be if you want him to play… Hopefully he won’t see your starting lineup…

                • The Great Knoche says:
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                  Nice Catcher hedge. I thought Zunino would breakout last year. That .250 25 HR is still coming.

  10. Harley Earl says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Wink wink! Right back at you.

    So, any chance this cat plays some infield and gets some IF eligibility? Or is he banished to the OF for eternity?

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