For today’s post I draw my inspiration from the spirit animal of this post, the incomparable Corey Feldman. There’s a couple of reasons for this; first and foremost his recent viral-worthy Today show performance. The general message of the performance was be yourself, dance like no one’s watching, and go for it. Yes, ladies and gents, I’m the Tony Robbins here at Razzball, looking to get you up and out there, getting yours. Seriously, be yourself Corey. Be. Your. Self…….That goes for you too Angels, even if the look in your eye is one of a captured animal who’s freedom has been stripped of them one Lost Boys themed orgy at a time. The other reason Mr. Feldman is such an inspiration for this post, his career. It started out bright, and successful, but quickly spun out of control, as the remainder has been a trainwreck. Sorry dude, but 80’s drug use is no excuse (cough, cough Charlie Sheen and Robert Downey Jr. did okay, if only for a little while). This narrative is not much different than the prospects we’ll discuss today. They too started their seasons with a spectacular run of success, rubbing elbows with the Michael Jackson’s of the minor leagues (That’s Tito BTW), on their way to great first halves. But that’s where the plot thickens. As they hit the second half they faltered, and the results weren’t anywhere close to their previous levels. So today let’s talk about some of these first half heroes, the ones that went full Cinderellay, as their production went pumpkin. Here are this year’s Corey Feldman’s.

 

Josh Ockimey, 1B Red Sox
First Half | .285/.404/.500 9 HR, 32 RBIs, 3 SB
Second Half | .171/.312/.352 9 HR, 30 RBIs, 0 steals

I hate to say it, but damn was Ockimey disappointing in the second half. Like seriously what’s the deal Ock? You’ve disappointed the great Ock’s of the past, particularly Doctor. It was nice to see that the power production, at least from a home run standpoint was even, but by the same token his slugging dropped 150 points! His batting average dropped well below the Mendoza line, and that’s not great from someone with split issues to begin with (OPS vs RHP .831 vs LHP .600). It is true that he started to see the shift more in the second half, but in the current shift happy climate, if that’s a hurdle you can’t over come you’re not long for this world. He went from being a true breakout, to more of a pop up guy with a bag full O’ question marks.

Conclusion: Move on

Dan Vogelbach, 1B Mariners
First Half |.288/.409/.504 12 HR, 49 RBIs, 0 SB
Second Half | .286/.410/.485 11 HR, 49 RBIs, 0 SB

Okay, so maybe his “second half wasn’t great per se, but his production following the trade to Mariners was (.240/.404/.422). Vogie was great in the first half, and had he been in the right organization, probably saw promotion by mid-June. Unfortunately he was buried in a stacked Cubs organization. So as a fan and owner of Vogelbach, I was more than happy to see him move to Seattle. Problem was he struggled mightily in Tacoma, hitting just .240, and not producing the runs he was in Iowa. Granted much of his drop off can be blamed on BABIP luck (.263), he still hasn’t looked very good in his first dozen MLB at bats. Still think he’s got the skills to be a good MLB DH, and utility guy in fantasy, particularly OBP leagues.

Conclusion: Hold

Harrison Bader, OF Cardinals
First Half | .303/.368/.520 13 HR, 31 RBIs, 7 SB
Second Half | .225/.300/.369 6 HR, 27 RBIs, 6 SB

Let’s get this out of the way, I like Bader a lot and still buy into his prospect status. That being said, He struggled once he touched AAA, which in his first full professional season you can’t fault him. While I don’t think Bader will ever be what he showed early in the season, I still think he has a chance to be a very useful fantasy outfielder, particularly under the guidance of a great player development program like the Cardinals.

Conclusion: Hold

Clint Frazier, OF Yankees
First Half | .295/.387/.485 7 HR, 34 RBIs, 9 SB
Second Half | .232/.286/.393 9 HR. 22 RBIs, 4 SB

Going into the second half Frazier was one of my favorite prospects, and I felt that the trade to the Yankees at the deadline would do nothing but continue to boost his stock heading into 2017. My general hypothesis is that Frazier would be one of the buzziest names in prospectin’ entering the off-season, that didn’t happen. Instead, he struggled in New York, and now many are wondering if he’s an overhyped prospect. Sounds to me like the right time to buy.

Conclusion: Buy!!!!

Ronald Guzman, 1B Rangers
First Half | .288/.357/.500 9 HR, 30 RBIs, 0 SB
Second Half | .262/.309/.401 7 HR, 37 RBIs, 2 SB

I’ve never been a big believer when it came to Guzman, and all in all, his second half wasn’t that bad. Actually in some ways it was better, but a 100 point drop in slugging fed the same fears many such as myself had, he’s not a power bat. Still wasn’t an awful showing, and the power point might be moot, with the suspicion of juiced balls.

Conclusion: Hold

 

Follow me on Twitter @ralphlifshitzbb and please subscribe to the Razzball Prospect Podcast

  1. Jose says:
    (link)

    Prospector Ralph! Thanks for always keeping us updated! I’m notcurrently part of any dynasty leagues, but do have one league we can keep out entire 25 man roster. We ended last week and I finished in 3rd. Not bad, but had a chance at that #1 spot and my pitching fell apart late in the year.

    With pitching in mind, any of these guys you’d move on from or be quick to replace early next year in a 10 team legue?
    Arrieta, Syndergaard, Lester, Salazar, Stroman, Cole, Matz?

    Cole, Matz and Salazar going down/being awful in the last part of the year really made it hard for the bats and I just couldn’t push through. I also have had Richards though both of his DL stints and ended up with Iwakuma as a streamer at the end of the year.

    One more quick quiestion…Is there any chance Trea Turner doesn’t get SS eligibility early next season. That would help my team a lot.

    Thanks as always!

    Jose

    • Jose says:
      (link)

      @Jose: After reading that last part about Turner, I realize it doesn’t really make sense. Having Turner as my SS would help my team a lot. Not if he doesn’t get SS eligibility.

      Thanks Ralph.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @Jose: I would expect he might, wouldn’t shock me if he’s their starter at SS next year. Wait and see. He’s a top 50 player next year no matter his position.

        • Jose says:
          (link)

          @Ralph Lifshitz: Top 50 at SS would be great. I’ve got an overcrowded outfield and no obvious SS of the future if Segura doesn’t continue to see enough time there (17 GS and 23 G total). Like you said, just have to wait and see.

          Any advice on the Pitching situation? The way the league settings play out, having 1 or 2 of my 9 SP slots open for streaming is best. This year I had enough offense to justify holding a couple guys, but next year I’d like to really go for that #1 spot. Thoughts?

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
            (link)

            @Jose: Probably Stroman or Matz, though you’re going to have to wait a t least a few weeks into the season to move Matz. Is it crazy that I think you should try and sell Syndergaard to maximize your return. He worries me, think we’re overrating him because of the velocity. See what you can get.

            • Jose says:
              (link)

              @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks Ralph! Look forward to the prospect & keeper updates this winter. The leagues I’m in all ended last week to avoid skewed results with players being rested in the lead up to the post season. I find myself enjoying watching guys perform without the stress of negative outcomes and at the same time a little lost with how to waste time at work…

              Always the best!

              Jose

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
                (link)

                @Jose: I’ll try and help you waste some time a few times a week this offseason

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    Ralph (or Halp), Asuaje or Cozens — 10 team NL-Only keeper, for future years

    If Cozens, then Asuaje or Dilson Herrera?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      @Grey: Now this is funny, you asking a question about specs..hehe

      Let me giver you my 2 euros. I would go Cozens and Asuaje over Herrera..

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @Malicious Phenoms: Cozens and Herrera all day baby

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Ralph Lifshitz: People are sleeping on Herrera, guy can hit and he’s in a much better hitters park @ GAB

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
            (link)

            @Ralph Lifshitz: WOW, my bad, I forget he was traded to Cincy, you bet he is in a better hitters park now!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        @Malicious Phenoms: Well, Ralph knows his stuff and a 2nd opinion can’t hurt

        • Malicious Phenoms says:
          (link)

          @Grey: exactly…thanks

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Grey: Asuaje is safe, but not spectacular. Herrera has nice power speed upside. Unfortunately he’s lost some status as a prospect because he reached his limits in 2015 w/ Mets. If not he’d be top 10 2b for sure.

  3. IV says:
    (link)

    Afternoon Ralph,

    First I wanted to say that I finally got around to adding your podcast to my weekly queue and I am really liking it. Definitely helping me become more informed on prospects since I am just getting accustomed to dynasty leagues.
    I am the current owner of the Orioles in the REL 1 and I was wondering what your general thoughts were on the Orioles farm system and if there were any standout guys you like.

    Thanks in advance!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @IV: I really like Sedlock, Reyes, Mountcastle, Mancini, Yermin Mercedes, DJ Stewart, Dietz, Keegan Akin.

      Chance Sisco is a better real life than fantasy prospect.

  4. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Good solid info as always Ralph.

    I see you say Frazier is a buy low, I looked up his minor numbers and nothing really jumps out at me..
    Being a Yankees fan, I hope he is not going to be a bust..

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Malicious Phenoms: Serious power speed guy with great bat speed. He’s a 5 tool guy, and he ropes line drives.

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: Hmm, thanks for that, makes feel better about him..

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Malicious Phenoms: Yeah his production has been good when you consider he’s young. His first half was excellent. I ranked him in the top 10 in my midseason top 100.

          Watch some tape on him, the bat speed is nuts.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    Ralph (or Halp),

    Is there anything at all to Asuaje in my NL-Only, 10 team keeper? Worth a $1 flyer?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Grey: Yeah if you have the space he’s worth a buck, for sure. He’s got great position eligibility. I grabbed him in the Razznasty which is 16 mixed a couple months ago. I also traded for Herrera. So I like them both, just think Herrera has the higher upside, but Asuaje is worth a flier on the bottom of your bench in NL only.

      • Halp

        Halp says:
        (link)

        @Ralph Lifshitz: beat me by 30 seconds, ha

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Halp: Hahaha

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Cool, gonna drop Samardzija for him (who’s way overpriced; don’t ask)

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Grey: I can’t blame you in NL only pitching values get crazy. He’s someone I’d try and bag for nothing this year.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            I could keep him for $22 which is absurd, hence, dropping him

            • Ralph Lifshitz

              Ralph Lifshitz says:
              (link)

              @Grey: Sheesh! I wonder what he goes for this year

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                $10-15? Does give IP and it’s NL-Only…

                • Ralph Lifshitz

                  Ralph Lifshitz says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: I’d bid 8 and see what happens. I love low balling out of favor guys.

    • Halp

      Halp says:
      (link)

      @Grey: ha, Halp tagging in. Best thing about him is that he is MLB ready, but doesnt have big power or speed. So you are basically betting on average, with not much in the way of counting stats with the san diego lineup around him. He also might have trouble winning a starting job and end up a platoon or utility bench bat.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
        (link)

        @Halp: You agree Herrera over Asuaje?

        The Cozens one above is a no brainer, I mean he’s the size of JB, led the minors in homers, and has 20 steal speed.

        • Halp

          Halp says:
          (link)

          @Ralph Lifshitz: I agree with you completely there and dont really disagree that he isnt worth a $1 flier either. Can always drop for someone else next season. No risk move

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Good stuff, Halp! Thanks!

  6. Really like these reports and your eye, Ralph. Thank you! Looking forward to seeing your thoughts on Yusniel Diaz, Of, LAD. I got him in a weird keepers’ league and am on the fence about how to view him. Long-shot long-term star potential or all tools and no full-time job? THANKS, MAS

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @FANTHEAD: At the moment he’s a low level guy with very intriguing tools for fantasy. Could be a climber next year if he hits the ground running

Comments are closed.