I already went over a Josh Hamilton overrated post, but I guess people were off reading his inspirational autobiography, “Baseball Between the Lines.”  So I brought out the pirated Photoshop for a quick, “Don’t make me come back there!”  Okay, this wonky .jpg is a bastardized Hype Cycle.  If you don’t know what a Hype Cycle is, it’s because you didn’t go to Harvard.  Don’t worry, neither did I.  If I had, you would’ve heard about it a gazillion times.  A hype cycle is this thingamaboob that tells you the life cycle of hype for certain technologies.  Or technologiez, if you’re under 14.  Now I took this thingamaboob and I reinvented it for Josh Hamilton and the schmohawkian hype that is following him around as we head toward your 2009 fantasy baseball draft day.  So let’s break down this Josh Hamilton fantasy baseball .jpeg-a-roo-ski into the different stages of hype, shall we?

No More Crack Smoking – This stage in the Josh Hamilton hype cycle is more or less self-explanatory.  Josh Hamilton stops smoking crack.  As he continues up the curve, he gets near 100 RBIs by the 2008 ASB, he stays healthy and he helps a giraffe give birth.  The last one is still unverified.

2009 Drafts – The peak of the hype.  Everyone goes caca-cuckoo over Josh Hamilton in the 2009 preseason.  One woman from Lubbock, Texas calls in to the Vatican saying there’s an image of Josh Hamilton on her toast.  All of this leads to Josh Hamilton being severely overrated and he’s drafted in the 1st round of some 2009 drafts.

Falls back to Earth, Hits the DL – Sometime during the 2009 season Josh Hamilton fails to live up to the hype and his owners wonder where it all went wrong.  Then he gets hurt.

He’s a solid OF, but not Jimmy Jesus – At the end of the season, fantasy baseball owners look at Josh Hamilton through slightly less than rosy glasses and come to the conclusion that he’s good, just not a 1st or even 2nd rounder.  He’s Jason Bay’s numbers with a feel-good story attached to his name.

Hype Cycle, Josh Hamilton

 
  1. Bob says:
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    This is one of the great posts of all times. I especially love the graph.

  2. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    A guy in my league last year lost the league for one simple reason: He refused to do the sensible, obvious thing and unload Hamilton for a boatload of booty at the All Star break. In short, he fell in love with Jimmy Jesus.

    So instead of flipping him like an overpriced house he suffered through Hamilton’s very pedestrian second half, fell from first, and finished third.

    So tragic. So preventable.

  3. Christopher says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: @Grey: b/c of yuze gize, I did flip Hamilton just after the break for some real production. Now, if only I had found Razzball for my draft, I could have been a contender (I would have avoided being Penced by Hunter)…alas, this year shall be different!

  4. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Christopher: Out of curiosity, what did you get for Hamilton?

  5. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Is the “Trough of Disillusionment” the Evangelical Fantasy Baseball Player’s version of “seeing the light?”

  6. Ashley says:
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    The annoying thing about baseball is that 20 different analysts have 20 different opinions about every player.

    Some people think Longoria will put up 30 hr, 110 rbi.. Some people think he’ll be a huge disappointment.

    Some people think Votto and Chris Davis will have big break out years.. So think they’ll struggle.

    Atleast the people who for years kept saying Crawford was going to hit 25 homeruns seem to have disappeared.

    But anyways…. The Yahoo! “experts” have Furcal ranked #4, Tulo #5, Alexei #6 at SS.. If you remember me from a couple weeks ago, I said I was going to target Alexei in the first round of my keeper draft. Do you think he’ll be the most reliable out of those 3?

    And now I’m scared about Hamilton thanks to you.. One team has Kemp and Markakis.. Should I see if I could get both of them for him?

    Thanks

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: Yes, sir.

    @Ashley: Kemp and Markakis for Hamilton would be a good deal for you. Hamilton’s a 3rd to 4th rounder in value. I could see him going at the end of the 2nd round. 1st round and he’s overrated, hence the post.

    re: Alexei — I like him better than Furcal or Tulo.

    Oh, and Votto will have a good year.

  8. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Ashley: If every analyst agreed that Longoria would hit 30 HR, and then he did, fantasy baseball would be very boring. Also, every league would end in a tie because nothing unpredictable would ever happen.

    The biggest variance in opinions is on young players, because people are trying to guess what they will do, yet they don’t have much information on what they’ve done. That’s what makes it fun!

    Personally, I like Alexei but you should understand that, as a second year player, he comes with a high amount of risk. Sometimes pitchers find a hole in a young player’s swing, and it takes time to adjust. Sometimes they experience adversity for the very first time in their careers and can’t handle it. etc.

    Remember, last year Tulo was everyone’s rookie darling and his sophomore season was a major bust.

    If you can convince someone to give you Kemp AND Markakis for Hamilton, yes, do that. I doubt someone would make that swap, however, unless the other team is run by Josh Hamilton’s mother.

    Yours truly,
    The 21st Analyst

  9. Josh says:
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    I know Hamilton’s overrated, but I think you’re a little harsh on him. He’s better than Bay, especially with Bay’s 2007 not too far in the past. He still is in the middle of that texas line-up that looks poised to score a ton of runs this year. If Cruz, Davis and Andrus can all improve that lineup, in Arlington…

    Going to change my pants now.

    That said, I’ll aim for davis, cruz, or maybe even kinsler on my teams, probably not hamilton though.

  10. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: The 21st Analyst. You should start your own blog with that title.

  11. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Josh: There is no way in this or any universe that Josh Hamilton is a first-round player.

    Nope. No sirree. Picking him in the first round this year is akin to committing fantasy hari-kari*.

    @IowaCubs: I prefer to espouse my ill-informed views here, with pushy comments that people can ignore while they wait for Grey to weigh in.

    *Harry Caray?

  12. Josh says:
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    @ Baron Von Vulturewins: I agree, he’s not a first rounder, but he also is much better than Jason Bay. Hamilton in the third would be too hard to pass up though. In my OF ranking I’d have Lee, Soriano, and Beltran all ahead of him. Not Kemp, Ichiro or Manny though.

  13. Josh says:
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    And apparently the “though” key got stuck on my keyboard.

  14. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Christopher: Good haul. You gained the best hitter in baseball. You gave away about 30 ribbies. So, good deal.

    @Josh: Agreed! Though I don’t know that he’s much better than Bay. I’d say they’re both logically in .285/100/30/100 territory, with Hamilton maybe coughing up ten steals. If he stays healthy.

    It’s true Bay stunk in Pitt. two years back but I think he was just bored as hell.

  15. I think BJ Upton’s graph would be interesting and similar.

    The crack smoking would be his early career yearly failed attempts to make the roster or find a position. The 2009 draft would be his 2008 draft after his stellar hr/sb 2007 year. Upton’s a little further on the list because he’s already hit the DL last year with his wrist injury and lack of power busting everyone’s keeper leagues. He started his climb to his plateau level in the playoffs, and now this year we can all draft him accordingly, without reaching.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @bpasinko: Totally agree. Upton is now at the last plateau. He’ll either go up based on his performance this year or will go down and people will think he’s nowhere near a #1 outfielder.

  17. Christopher says:
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    @bpasinko: @Grey: do we really expect #1 power from BJ this year? I can’t see it happening…

  18. jasonbayniac says:
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    I’m in two new CBS 16 team keeper leagues and Hamilton went in the 1st round in both. In one of them he went 10th overall! Madness.

  19. Ashley says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins:

    Well I’m in a 3-sport keeper league. So I guess it’s irritating to me that you go from the NBA, where people know what they’re going to get out of Chris Paul, Lebron, Kobe, etc. And the rookies who get hyped up…. Actually produce! Rose, Westbrook, Lopez, Mayo, Durant.. They’re all living up the hype. Guys like Kwame Brown, who don’t produce, are the exception.

    But in baseball, a “top prospect” appears to be like a baby sea turtle.. Only 30% survive. Alex Gordon, DELMON YOUNG (the next Bonds?? Seriously??), Homer Bailey, Jeff Francouer, Phil Hughes, Howie Kendrick, Lastings Milledge, etc etc etc etc. The Braun’s and Longoria’s are the exception. As a Braves fan, Heyward and Hanson better be part of the 30% who survive.

    The leagues wouldn’t all end in a tie if people knew what to expect out of their players… It would just be nice to have a reasonable idea what you’re going to get out of your players. Is A-Rod going to hit 30 hr or is he going to hit 50 hr? Will Rollins hit 30 hr or 10 hr? Is Manny going to hit 20 hr or 37 hr?

    The point I’m trying to make is, in the NBA atleast you don’t have to worry about if Kobe will average 30 pts or if he’ll average 18 pts. But in MLB, you have no clue what to expect out of the top players. I guess the goal is to keep your fingers crossed and hope to avoid the busts.

    So I’ll ask you what I asked Grey a few weeks ago. My 5 keepers are Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Braun, and Roy Halladay. I have 3 picks in the 6th rd (I traded Lincecum and a 10th rd for Halladay and a 6th, and I traded Jason Bay and a 13th rd for a 6th rd last season).

    I want to target a 1B, SS, 3B, and 4th OF/Util with my first 4 picks

    #3 – 1B – Adrian Gonzalez (Youkilis/Chris Davis/Votto)
    #4 – OF/Util – Ellsbury (Granderson/Pence/Bruce/Cruz/Crawford)
    #8 – SS – Alexei Ramirez (Tulo/Stephen Drew)
    #13 – 3B – Chris Davis (Zimmerman/Atkins)

    There’s a ton of pitching available, so I would just load up on pitching for the rest of the draft.

    So “21st Analyst,” do you think those are reasonable choices? I couldn’t tell if you were thinking Alexei would be a bust or if you liked him. The #1 pick is taking McCann, and the #2 pick will probably take Brandon Phillips or Carl Crawford.

  20. Christopher says:
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    @Grey: “With 35+ steals he doesn’t need to have #1 outfielder power.” True ‘dat…I totally discarded his SB-ness…I am shamed…

  21. big o says:
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    i think hamilton will improve upon his 2008 #’s .

    at this time , i’m not prepared to say that about any of the previously mentioned 1st rounders .

  22. Eric W says:
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    @Ashley: That’s why I love me some hard ball

  23. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Ashley: Wow, you’re tough, sorry I couldn’t be here earlier to witness this go round.

    My take on 3 sports is this, take it for what it’s worth. I’m no expert.

    NBA is all about superstars. The top guys are all superior athletically to their counterparts, hence, Kobe gets his 30, Lebron gets his triple double, etc. Plus, there’s no consistency in the rules………Lebron gets 5 steps when he goes in the paint because he can do that and make it look good. Joe Blow stumbles over his two left feet, takes 2 wrong steps, he gets whistled for traveling. He can’t make it look good, that’s why it’s called Showtime!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    NFL is all about physical athlete vs. physical defense, offensive line vs. defensive line, therefore easier to predict. My Adrian Petersen combined with Steve Hutchinson, Bryant McKinnie, Matt Birk, etc. up front will beat down your defensive line on any given Sunday.

    Baseball on the other hand, is totally different. More individual skills involved. Here’s Jake Peavy on the mound facing Manny Ramirez, who wins, batter vs. pitcher? Who’s got the scoop on what he can hit or which pitch he’s gonna throw? That’s why baseball is so unpredictable, it’s one on one.

    Too much to think about, that’s why I just ask Grey, Rudy, or Baron Von Vulturewins. Let them do the work, I’ll reap the benefits. Trust em.

    Baseball rules the fantasy world, btw, just as Video Killed the Radio Star.

    Just my Cent and a half, I’m too cheap to give two Cents.

  24. Ashley says:
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    @BigFatHippo:

    Yeah, I understand.. It’s a lot harder to hit a fastball/curveball than it is to make a 3 pointer.

    I guess I just hate that it’s such a crapshoot. Hamilton and Quentin were both FA pickups for me last year, now they’re top 25 players. And this year they’ll probably both be disappointments…

  25. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Ashley: Disappointments in a sense, as Grey says, just know what you’re paying for.

    Sure, they might have great years, then again, they could both bomb. Don’t pass on Tex, a known commodity, to take a chance. Hamilton and Quentin have no track record. Tex does.

    ie. Crapshoot? That’s what I love about baseball. Didn’t win my league till I found Razzball last year and took in all the advice from every fan in every city, we’re all here. We’re all Razztastic, we’ll help you win.

  26. Johnny says:
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    Josh could bring 1st round value, hitting 40 hr’s, 130 rbis, and jumping over buildings. Albeit very small buildings. Ok, picnic tables.

    So I could see his upside as a 1st rounder. But I’m thinking his downside is a 10th rounder with half a season missed or playing hurt with poor numbers.

    For my part I could see drafting him if the draft is held early March and then as spring or April heats up get a kings ransom for him. I’ve seen far too many salesmen type managers excel at this strategy to discount it.

  27. bpasinko says:
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    I don’t necessarily prefer how in baseball a guy like Hamilton may bust. But I don’t like how in NBA there is literally no roster turnover.

    In baseball young studs come in and out of nowhere and a bad team that works the free agent wire well can get infinitely better. In the NBA the only time you can change your roster is if someone is out for the year or there is a trade. There isn’t enough playing time to go around, almost feel stuck.

    Once in a while you get lucky and grab Al Harrington before he’s traded, but you can’t compare to the Brauns, Hamiltons, Bruces that come up and help your team, or random career years like Huff.

    Kind of unrelated but, does anyone have any experiences with Brady Anderson screwing over their team after that one season?

  28. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Ashley: re: NBA vs. NFL vs. MLB. I agree there’s some element of skills here — hitting a baseball is considered about the hardest thing in sports. Also, there seems to be a much smaller skills-gap between college football/basketball and the real thing than there is between minor league baseball and major league baseball. That said: Kwame Brown, Greg Oden (so far), Brian Bosworth, Ryan Leaf, etc etc etc etc etc. There are busts in all sports.

    re: your picks. I’m no keeper league expert, so I’ll just go on the players you’ve targeted. All those are reasonable choices. I assume you need steals, which puts Ellsbury over, say, Granderson, who I like better across the board. But your team seems stacked for power.

    I have to admit I’m souring more and more on Alexei. Granted, if he only does what he did last year, he’ll still be valuable. And he could blossom into Soriano Lite. But free-swinging hackers tend to be bust-friendly. All pitchers have to do is figure out the one pitch they can’t lay off of, then throw that pitch, a lot. This is a tried-and-true recipe for Bust Pie.

    Given you have a few one-year-wonder guys like Hamilton and Quentin (both of whom I expect to do well again, if healthy) you might want to minimize risk by taking guys like Gonzo and possibly Atkins over Davis. I mean, Davis could be huge, Bruce could be huge, Alexei could be huge — they ain’t all going to be huge, however. Take this from a guy who bet hard on up-and-comers last year (BJ Upton, Rios, Frenchy, Zimmerman) — i.e. all guys I believed would be significantly better than they’d be — and all of whom were worse than expected, especially power wise. Needless to say, it cost me last year.

    Davis has great power but not everyone in Texas will hit 40 HRs — it’s just not statistically likely. That said, I like him at 3B. And I like Alexei at SS better than 2B, and don’t see him as significantly more risky than Tulo. Everyone has their caveats. You could go with what you have here and be very happy.

  29. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Hamilton similar to Chipper. He was great last year–for his typical short run before injuries.

  30. cockyphoenix says:
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    oh i missed this one; it’s great

    for science

  31. MrGrinch says:
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    tired of hearing about this POS, im gonna become a crackhead and then recover and then give money to charity or something so i can become a “hero”

  32. Cotton says:
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    1000-word posts suck.

  33. Johnny says:
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    Haha someone was absolutely on target.

  34. Toni says:
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    Looks like you jumped the gun on this one. The dude can flat out rake.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Toni: Welcome to the site! This post is from 2009 preseason. Not this one.

  36. justin says:
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    so does everyone that posted on here a year ago feel like an idiot yet? you should…

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