Some guys who I label sleepers are about where they’re being drafted vs. where they should be drafted.  With Jonathan Villar, I just want to write about him.  I don’t really care where he’s being drafted.  I’m pretty sure he’s being drafted too low.  He definitely is compared to where I think he can perform.  Even more so, if you consider where a guy like Adalberto Mondesi is being drafted.  I know some of you are turning your nose up at anyone on the Orioles.  I kapeesh that, but what if I told you a team had to start a guy 155 games because they’re next best option is Breyvic Valera.  Would you say, “Crap, I didn’t know they had Breyvic Valera” or would you say, “You just made up the name Breyvic Valera?”  Or would you say, “Breyvic Valera is the mayor of my town in the Ukraine.”  How about that Steve Wilkerson, huh?  He’s gonna steal time from Villar?  No, Steve Wilkerson is not the guy in your office who makes uncomfortably long eye contact with you.  He’s some schmohawk the Orioles have on their depth chart.  The Orioles’ depth chart is a lot like an eye chart.  Everyone who looks at it squints.  Villar also has the ability to play all around the field if the Orioles have the terrible misfortune to lose Chris Davis, Renato Nunez or any other schmohawk currently penciled into the lineup.  If Villar can stay healthy, he might see 600 ABs.  Just thinking of that made my eyes spin rapidly and land on cherries.  Anyway, what can we expect from Jonathan Villar for 2019 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

In only 466 ABs last year, he hit 14 homers and stole 35 bases.  First off, like the hair on my upper lip, let’s start with his best trait, his steals.  He was only caught five times.  No one with 30 steals was caught so few times.  With 35+ steals, nine times caught by Trea Turner was the closest.  Mallex Smith stole 40 bags and was caught 12 times.  Billy Hamilton stole 34 bags and caught 10 times.  Okay, point belabored enough.  You get the drift.  Villar is in the royal court of Rajai Davis, the King of SAGNOF.  Villar is only 27 years old, and good for at least one more year of 45+ steals.  In case you forgot, he stole 62 bases two years ago.  Have I mentioned the Orioles will be awful?  Yasmany times, I know.  Okay, not great for runs and RBIs, but what else is he doing on base if not stealing?  When he stole 62 bags, he hit 19 homers.  In 403 ABs in 2017, he hit 11 homers.  Last year, his 14 homers went on average about as far as Mookie Betts’s homers.  Villar doesn’t hit a ton of fly balls, and is more of a 15-homer hitter than a 25-homer hitter, but 15 homers with 45+ steals?  Have I not peaked your interest?  Wow, you’re tough.  How about his batting average?  He had a career average of .256 in 2,288 plate appearances.  He dropped his K-rate and upped his walk rate last year vs. the previous year and hit .260 last year.  Not saying he’s a .300 hitter, but .270 seems very possible.  If I may be so bold, if Villar gets 600+ ABs, he will go 17/50 and be a top 25 fantasy producer next year.  For 2019, I’ll give Jonathan Villar the projections of 84/16/67/.267/48 in 549 ABs with a chance for much more.

  1. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!!

    Loved the write-up!!!

    So when is too early to draft him and when is too late?

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Packers says:
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      @Ante Galic: Ante,

      I’m drafting in a NFBC 50 and hold league currently. It’s early but trying to get a feel for this years draft. Helps with research as well.
      I drafted Villar with pick 105 in the 9th round. It’s a 12 team 50’S league. He is going anywhere from 53-152 thru 24 completed drafts.
      Baez
      Altuve
      Whit
      Gleber
      Albies
      Scooter
      Shaw (me) 2b/3b
      Villar
      Dee
      That’s how it went down.

      • KNUCKS says:
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        @Packers: Did you do the 2 or 4 Hour draft?

        I’m pumped that 2 Hour is an option this year.

        • Packers says:
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          @KNUCKS:
          4 Hour. New rule in NFBC is starting with round 31 the time gets cut in half, FYI
          Going this early sucks to draft closers, I’m thinking I won’t score many points in that cat. I use the draft as a glorified mock. At least people won’t quit.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Packers: Nice, good info!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: Ante good to see you again, raw and unquoted… He’s currently going around 100-150, ESPN and Yahoo will likely rank him around 150-200… I’m thinking in the 75-90 range is fine

  2. Fanciful Basesball says:
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    Ugh! But, Grey, I don’t wanna!

  3. Crime Dog says:
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    The Rockies getting Dan Murphy is such a typical Rockies move. I’m guessing they keep Matt Holiday too. Do you think the Rockies are just a really nice organization in that they want to help out old people by signing them to play in probably the only park they can still look like they don’t belong in a softball league in? It’s like they know this 39 year old is no good but hey we have thin air maybe it’ll work out.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: It’s so Rockies, least surprising move… They will get a vet 2B too, and then move Desmond to OF…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: Prolly still re-sign LeMahieu

      • Crime Dog says:
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        @Grey: haha I’m dying. I’m guessing Jed lowrie, probably resign DJ, then like you said move Desmond to OF with Matt Holiday to round out the oldest roster in baseball. Maybe bring back Julio Franco as a bench bat.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, yup

          • Troy says:
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            @Grey: and due to those signings send Dahl to AAA

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ugh, don’t even

  4. Crime Dog says:
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    Agree on Villar. I think him being on the Orioles is good too. No PT concerns and it shouldn’t really affect his best asset, steals. Some people complain about maybe no runs or RBIs but you’re drafting him for his decent pop and SB. Where do you see yourself drafting him, top 70?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Crime Dog: Thanks! Yeah, around 70-90

  5. DonnieB says:
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    Would you trade a pitcher like Severino or Bauer for Villar? How about Corbin?

  6. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    In a keeper league I was offered his $6 Villar for my $5 Bellinger. Both only elligible one year. Too much right? Or is it closer than I originally thought.

  7. knucks says:
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    I took a look at NFBC ADP vs ESPN Early (and sad as always) Top 300 this morning for Grey’s sleepys, if anyone is interested.

    Villar- 102, 126 (-24 Higher in NFBC ADP)

    Muncy- 95, 153 (-58)

    Austin- 368, 296 (+72 Higher in ESPN Ranks)

    Voit- 193, 259 (-66)

    Meadows- 175, 239 (-64)

    Palka- 286, 245 (+41)

    Laureano- 190, 234 (-44)

    Conforto- 111, 76 (+35)

    Harry Bader- 164, 170 (-6)

    I never pay attention much to how often the ESPN dood updates those ranks. But I’m viewing these as the ranks that could appear in an ESPN draft for players come March.

    • Crime Dog says:
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      @knucks: nice knucks. I can tell you from my experience last year, ESPN changes quite a bit and it mysteriously coincides with when other experts release their ranks. Seemed like once grey released his ranks last year ESPNs ranks updated specifically with some of the guys Grey was high on. I remember Eddie Rosario was buried at 150 last year on ESPN until about mid January then shot up to top 100. Same with Bauer.

      • knucks says:
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        @Crime Dog: Hah! Yea I do remember seeing that conversation around here now that you mention it. Classic.

    • knucks says:
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      @knucks: Also noticed that Villar will be 2B ELIG only for ESPN, having played 18 games at SS in 2018, he didn’t hit the 20 game min.

      But yea, to your point Grey, he could hit the 10 games min kinda quickly at several positions once the season begins, with them Oreos having no depth anywhere on the diamond.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @knucks: Nice! They’re all as buried as I figured, Villar is slightly closer than I figured tho

  8. Christian Warne says:
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    So yesterday I was asking about Robles over Muncy as my 5th keeper for $10. Villar is also on my team. Projections seem to me that Villar is the better keeper because more homers and more SB
    Robles 12/30
    Villar 17/50
    Only difference is OBP might be significantly lower. So do I round my keepers out with Robles or Villar?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Christian Warne: Robles is young, and has big upside… I really like him

  9. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    In a keeper league I was offered his $6 Villar for my $5 Bellinger. Both with just one year of eligibility. Too much right? Or is this closer than I originally thought?

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: Thanks.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  10. Connor Haugen says:
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    @Grey Recently started reading the blogs and can’t get enough. Want your opinion: on espn early adp Mondesi and Villar are within 10 spots of each other. Similar type of player. Begs the question of whether to trust a breakout (Mondesi) or a return to form (Villar)? Standard 5 plus OPS, K’s, and XBH.

  11. Gator says:
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    What are your projections for Murphy in Colorado? A full year to recover from knee surgery, does he have one more .340 with 25 HRs in him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Gator: Seems like a solid landing place for him, but he’s old, so I don’t see some huge breakout now… Prolly around 22 HRs, .300 and solid counting stats out of 2 hole

  12. FrankGrimes says:
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    Didn’t you pick nick to win like two months ago?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I did! Think it’s the 1st time I nailed it…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Excuse me, #NailedIt

  13. Random catcher question says:
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    Yo G

    Dynasty league OBP need a catcher. Do I sell H Bader(my OFer is deep) for Mejia?

    Or look for cheaper C?

    Thanks your the best

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah, get a cheaper catcher

  14. Beef Dumpling III says:
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    Totally unrelated to Jon Villar, because he is worth sh*t on a stick in my points league, i have a question regarding hitter/pitcher splits. In a 12 team/12 keeper league where close to 75% of the points come from hitters, is keeping 5 SP (Sevy, Paxton, Syndergaard, Buehler, Flaherty) a good idea, or should i try and move one for a bat and get closer to that 75/25 split? Or would you not weaken a strength and hold on to the SP? Thanks.

    Keeper bats (Freeman, Correa, EE, Judge, Hoskins, Upton, Pham)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Definitely move one for a bat if you can get someone decent…

  15. Dave D says:
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    The one area of your forecast that I’m a bit skeptical about is the 84 runs scored. Who’s going to knock him in? Machado led the team with 65 RBIs and he’s gone. Mancini? Davis? I’m not sure how he’ll score 84 unless among those 48 bags he has double digit steals of home. Just sayin’.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm, maybe a bit too aggressive there, but 80-ish for a leadoff/2 hole two guy isn’t crazy, maybe 74-77 is more realistic

      • Dave D says:
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        @Grey:

        Or maybe just “up” his SB forecast to 60, because surely he reads your blog and will frequently steal second and third so he can validate your forecast. The good thing for him in that regard is that on duch a poor hitting team he’ll rarely have someone on base in front of him and maybe he know that in order to score it will have to be from 3rd on a groundball or fly ball. That is unless Chris Davis is up then he’ll have to hope for a passed ball on strike 3.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, yeah, and there’s word Chris Davis was so bad last year that he’s been researching, with a team of scientists, to figure out how to steal first, and surely if he can then Villar will copy him and do the same…

          • Donkey Teeth

            Donkey Teeth says:
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            @Grey: I read he’s working mainly with big Dodgers fan, Bill Nye.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I still can’t believe Bill Nye was watching a game on a Jewish holiday.

              • Donkey Teeth

                Donkey Teeth says:
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                @Grey: Yahweh wasn’t pleased, hence the Red Sox victory

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, he upset the nation

  16. Harley Earl says:
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    Grey, could you please define the word schmohawk, it’s origination and any relevant synonyms or antonyms? I’ve looked all over and can’t find this word and without it, I get completely lost trying to read your column.

    Yours truly,

    A Schmohawk Reader

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Grey: Well damnit. I thought you invented the Schmohawk phrase! So Disappointing! I’d never heard of it before. Although, I did watch Curb Your Enthusiasm, so maybe I’m just old and forgot. Oh well.

        In the meantime, get buys writing some more of these sleeper posts, you Schmohawk!

        P.S. — When are you going to write a piece on Alex Reyes or Julio Urias? Maybe one on Ramon Laureano? I’d love to know what you have to think about any or all of them, Schmohawk! I just love saying Schmohawk!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Though apparently I spell it differently

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Pronunciation guide care of Curb Your Enthusiasm hehe

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Haha

  17. Big Ticket says:
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    What would you see OBP/SLG splits coming in at?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      .340/.405

  18. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    NOM NOM NOM. Any reason besides injury that Villar wouldn’t get to 600 ABs leading off Os?

    In a standard roto league, 12 teams keep 7, would a $5 Villar keeper beat out a $29 Blackmon for you?

    Blackmon would probably go for $36 at auction. Other 6 keepers are G.Cole + Betts, JDM, Acuna, Rhys, Bryant.

    PS. Rockies are one random 1B/UTL signing away from boxing out their latest interesting guy, Hampton! Plus, what, now Murphy and Desmond will “play” first base? Murphy in COL though is interesting . . .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Don’t see why not, maybe 575+ to be conservative… I’d go Villar… I think Hampson is already boxed out…

      • Harley Earl says:
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        @Grey: Well I wish they would trade his ass, then!

  19. Species says:
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    Got Villar and A. Chapman for Conforto in a 20-team dynasty — taking the chance on exactly everything you outline here. In reality I will gladly take an exact repeat of 2018 and be happy. I loved Conforto, but there are a hell of a lot more 30 HR OF than 35+ SB infielders.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice, don’t mind that at all…

  20. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    Grey,
    Your input please.
    Which side in keeper league trade:
    Andujar $1 2 years and Bellinger $5 1yr
    for
    Severino $3 1 yr and Villar $6 1yr

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Cody

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        @Grey: Thanks. I’ll stop thinking about Villar now. Gotta catch up on my Dannemora watching anyway.
        Have a great weekend.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You too!

  21. FrankGrimes says:
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    I can dig Domingo on the Mariners
    Hopefully he can hit his way to playing.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I can’t imagine him not playing every day with where that team is going

  22. goodfold2 says:
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    30 team roto dynasty with 40 man prospect lists (that might even go up to 45 this year, it’s gone up 5 every other year i’ve been here). 115 million budgets. if you cut any contract over 1 mil per year you gotta eat half of it (you can choose whether to eat it in one year or spread it out over the life of the contract you cut). this roster has gotten exactly 9-12th every year i’ve been here. we get 3 tags a year, 1 franchise (pay whatever the player makes in real life), 1 restricted (you can match what the player gets in bidding, or take pick(s) based on how much the winning bid was), and 1 either of those type tags.
    C (1)
    CI (2) drury (.4 this year)
    MI (2) segura (14 this year)
    OF (3) hicks (5.9 this year ending)
    altherr (.4 this year)
    util (1)
    IR (4)
    SP (3) quintana (13 mil this year ending, matched a bid last year)
    yarbrough (.4 mil league min till end of ’21 rookie contract are league mins once called up)
    rey lopez (.4 till end of ’20)
    davies (.4 this year)

    RP (3) rosenthal (3.1 this year ending)
    victor alcantara (.4 till end of ’22)

    P (3)
    7 BN slots

    so that’s 76.6 mil left for 16 roster spots open (4.787 left on average per spot), and 38.4 tied up in my current 9 players (4.27 per). options of tagging:
    -sale (seems easy would be 13.4 he’s got one year left in real life at that to franchise)
    -yonder CI (8 average over 3 years in real life so that’s his franchise number)
    -mostsuckass CI (unknown, like yonder his restrict price would probably be ok)
    – e.rosario OF (last year made .6025 but he’s in arb clearly he’s cheaper if franchised rather than restricted though)
    – desmond OF/CI (i bid him right up 2 years ago when he got to COL due mostly to how much both you and rudy’s bots loved him at time, he’s almost certainly cheaper if restricted real life number is 12.67 or so)
    – yolmer MI (cheap as shit)

    clearly sale is one, who’d you go with for the last 2.

    and now with murphy at COL, what are the chances he eats something he wasn’t aware was a really strong edible and the next day a picture of him chin deep in franks and beans surfaces?

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: sausage and beans i had that wrong

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Ha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sale, Rosario, then up in the air… I like Yolmer, especially if price matters… If not really, then I guess Yonder

      I’d guess Murphy never eats franks…

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Grey: yeah homophobes almost never are comfortable in their sexuality, otherwise they’d not be so scared/hateful of the persons they find different from themselves. it’s also possible he’s just very infantile. if you ever want to see a group of people more homophobic than anybody (by age anyway) go hang around with jr high kids, they are new to their sexuality, so it’s ALL weird/scary to them. and NOBODY in the world (by age) is more concerned with who’s gay/might be gay/what does gay even mean than those kids (gay people themselves spend far less time worrying about this than these kids) the other type of homophobes are just rationally weak + hateful (re: religious), but i’m quite sure there’s a lot of overlap in these.

        if murphy himself isn’t closeted i’d be willing to bet he had some disastrous childhood experience with somebody (say a priest/father/uncle/mother’s boyfriend) who was.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: ok, so yonder over mostsuckass though, that’s a big one as they’re likely to cost similar (and good CI don’t come cheap usually in bidding). yonder of course is marked for 4th in a good hitter park and starting nearly for sure.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Depends still on where Suckass signs… It’s between him and Yonder, I was just saying it’s Yolmer on price, then other guys are coin flips…

            • goodfold2 says:
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              @Grey: oh yeah yolmer will be cheap as shit for sure. probably easy to obtain in bidding without having to overpay at all. nobody gets excited about winning that guy likely but has value for deep spots (notices yolmer is 2nd right now, hmmm, more so).

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Yeah, that’s true too… So, prolly between Moistass and Yonder…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, agreed…

  23. Big league choo says:
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    10 team H2H dynasty OBP league

    My Goldschmidt or syndergaard

    Goldschmidt or freeman

    Freeman seems like a sideways move but was offered to me. Does move from Ari to Stl hurt Goldys power numbers? I know you don’t abdicate trading for pitching, but I’m loaded at CI Goldy, Rendon, hoskins, muncy, Jose Martinez and peter Alonso. My Sp is rough but managed to win league for 2nd year in a row with streaming. My staff is Alex Reyes, Mikolas, Ryu, Wood, Freddy peralta, loaisiga, Jesus luzardo, joe Ross, johnny cueto.

  24. FrankGrimes says:
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    So excited Giants signed Pat Venditte!

    Merry Christmas brother!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Amen, Grimey! Merry Christmas!

Comments are closed.