There is a stupid premium on Jered Weaver.  Stupid as in dumb.  Not stupid as in, “Yo, Grey your feathered hair is stupid fresh!  Farrah Fawcett is prolly jealous in heaven.  Flap your wings, Greyseph Hawkins, you are my angel on earth.  I love you.”  In the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, I went over some of this so if you’ve been there, read that, skip ahead until the sentence starting, “Your claim to fame…”  Last year, Weaver’s K-rate bottomed out to its lowest since his rookie year with a 6.77 K/9.  That ranks 58th for starters.  He’s between Masterson, Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Paul Maholm.  That’s eeny meeny miny no.  To go further with one of the guys there, Kuroda’s K-rate was 6.84, his walk rate was 2.09 and his xFIP was 3.67.  Weaver’s walk rate and xFIP were 2.15 and 4.18.  Oh, and Kuroda’s fastball velocity sits around 92.  Weaver’s is at 88.  If you were just looking at those numbers with no names attached, you’d concur Kuroda is headed for a better season in 2013 than Weaver.  You, sir, are a darn fine concurrer.  Speaking of Weaver’s fastball, he had the 8th worst velocity in the majors.  Your grandmother could throw faster.  Granted, your grandmother was a receptionist at the Miami-based Biogenesis of America clinic, but still.  For xFIP, Weaver was the 27th worst in the majors between Volquez, Arroyo, Buehrle and Nolasco.  Those guys couldn’t get into the Who’s Who Among American Baseball Players with $39.95 and a B+ GPA.   So why is Jered Weaver overrated for 2013 fantasy baseball?

Because he’s ranked so damn high.  Honestly, I’m trying to find one positive for him.  Your claim to fame is being the backpacker in the background of the Wikipedia photo for a yeoman, but what’s Weaver’s claim to fame?  A guy with a diminishing strikeout rate and pitch velocity?  I bet if you sat down with that yeoman to multiply your smarts, you couldn’t figure out one reason why Weaver is routinely being drafted in the 4th round, about 3 rounds before I have him.  He’s a fly ball pitcher in a favorable park, and in a division that has two other favorable fly ball parks, so he’s not going to be unusable, but fly balls will start to leave any park when they’re coming in at 88 MPH.  In the past, he was causing batters to pop up — hit weak fly balls.  His infield fly ball rates plummeted last year.  Next stop for those fly balls is knocking over some bratty Orange County kid’s nachos in the outfield stands.  My crystal ball says there’s a better chance he has a 4.30 ERA than within .20 of last year’s 2.81 ERA.  Yes, my crystal ball deals in probabilities rather than certainties.  What do you want for $9.99 out of the back of a comic book?  I should’ve put that money towards getting me into the Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers.

 

 
  1. Eric W says:
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    Is it to early to Photoshop Jedd Gyorko’s face over my girlfriends in all the pictures we took together in Niagara falls?

    • Brian says:
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      @Eric W:

      LOL! already did that with my wife’s face.

      Jedd for president.

      • Paddyman says:
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        @Brian: Pinch hit it too! I look up SD games first thing to see what he’s done. Can’t help myself. Yes it’s only ST, but boy the lads got some pop.

        • JoeC says:
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          @Paddyman: That’s “Polish pop” to you, good sir!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eric W: Cougar out: Jedd in

  2. TheNewGuy says:
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    Too right, always thought Weaver was overvalued, hopefully this the year it finally falls apart for him. In another ballpark he’d have been mincemeat much sooner.

    Ha nice yeomans pic, sure we could all clam thats us. Good ol’ tower of London.

    Anyway deciding on Altuve as one of my final keepers. Know I wanna keep him but not sure how long, narrowed it down to:
    1 year ($6), 2 years ($9).

    Its an OBP league so makes Altuve’s good average a bit less valuable, and its only a 10 teamer, but im not sure. How many years would you go?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Ha… It could be all of us, it looks like a tourist… 2 years…

  3. nightpandas says:
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    Top of the morning sir,

    Got to pick my keepers on friday in my 15 team roto. (7×7 with OBP/SLG and K/9 & QS)
    My first 4 are: Pujols/Kinsler/Kemp/Bruce. Need to decide on my last 3. Won last year (thanks) and have no 2nd or 3rd round pick. Also no CI spot but I do have one util spot.

    Pick 3 of : Rizzo/ARam/Rollins/Medlen/Latos/Dickey

    • Johnny Five says:
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      @nightpandas:

      Medlen/Dickey/Rizzo

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @nightpandas: Medlen, Latos, Rizzo – I don’t trust Dickey making the jump from Citi/NL to Rogers/AL…. at all.

  4. emporersmonkey says:
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    I never have liked this dude, mainly because he looks like chop-top from Texas Chainsaw Massacare 2. Plus his mullet is f’ing ridiculous.

    • JoeC says:
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      @emporersmonkey: C’mon. I don’t like him because he plays for the hated Angels and is not nearly as good as his stats, but one can do nothing but admire a man who, in today’s world, proudly wears his mullet strong.

      There’s not many a girly man in America today who would dare to so freely flout conventional wisdom. Rock on, Jered Weaver (but please suck at pitching).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @emporersmonkey:Well, a mullet is business on top, party in the back…

  5. Justin says:
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    So last night im in the middle of a mock draft, and these two kids start busting my balls because I took Goldy,Hosmer,Rizzo,Moore,Harvey,and Samardjza to name a few.Those two kids have no idea what a good team looks like.

    What is your answer for those people who are questioning where Goldys rbi’s are going to come from?? A lot of people are saying he is over hyped, but a lot of the “perts” Have him relatively high. Shit rotowire has him at #21 overall, I’m all in on him just like Chris Sale last year (thank you for that last year, also thank you for convincing me to hold onto him after he was moved to the pen)

    • weas says:
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      @Justin: The Diamondbacks were 7th in OBP last year and 8th in runs, Goldschmidt will have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.

      • Josh says:
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        So…. will Montero and Goldschmidt have a good amount of opportunities to drive in runs?

    • Fungazi says:
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      @Justin: He’s going to have Eaton, Hill & Prado in front of him. Those guys will get on base enough for RBI opportunities.

    • Joe says:
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      @Justin: Let’s try this again (I’m new). Goldschmidt will be batting 4th or 5th after Eaton, Prado, and Hill. Goldy/Montero will be 4th/5th; not sure which order. All good hitters. PLENTY of opportunities for RBIs. The Dbacks aren’t the Miami Marlins.

      And Kubel (and possibly Montero) willl be batting AFTER Goldschmidt so plenty of Runs are on the horizon too.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Justin: Your first assignment is to not pay attention to “what the kids say”. You do your talking with winning and that is all.

      Your second assignment is to pick who you want and believe in. That’s the fun part of fantasy baseball. Being right about your preferences is just the whip cream on the sundae.

      As far as Goldy goes, I think Grey has pushed him into the over-hyped category at this point (at least among Razzball readers). This is not to say he’s going to be Hosmer 2.0, but I think it’s a bit much to expect him to be the 4th-best first baseman at this point in his career. Maybe next year.

      But pick who you want. Prove me (and them) wrong. Then spike the football in the end zone and eat yo’ popcorn. :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Don’t worry about runs and RBIs, worry about HRs, SBs and average, in that order…

    • Tony says:
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      @Justin: yeah i wouldn’t worry about those dudes.

      Now the semi-comparison of SALE last yr and GOLDY this yr is a little off. Sale was a favorite of razzers last yr BUT he was going in the 15th round on….. Big difference with Goldy, he’s a top 5 or earlier round guy, alot more risk attached to that guy when you’re sitting there and there’s some players with better track records…..

      Personally, I’m not buying GOLDY this yr, he’d have to fall to my 5th round pick. There’s too many other “if they’re healthy” FOR SURES in the 3rd and 4th rounds where i see him go….

      But hey thats just me…..

  6. Buffalo Runner says:
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    i am gonna draft an anti-grey team, just for shits and giggles.

    rd1- pitcher
    rd2- posey
    rd-3 middle infielder
    rd-4 kimbrel
    rd-5 middle infielder
    rd-6- weaver
    rd-7 another middle infielder
    etc.
    etc.

    ill take a 2nd catcher too, just for good measure.

    • JoeC says:
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      @Buffalo Runner: I’ve tried that 3 years running in RCL leagues and it’s failed each time. :)

      But maybe the strategy is sound and it’s just the implementer who’s flawed?

      • Buffalo Runner says:
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        @JoeC:

        it’s you.

        you have to remember to take 2-3 catchers. :)

        catchers seem to get hurt a lot.

  7. Damian says:
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    Grey, need some keeper advice for my 16-team nl-only team (it’s super deep, yo). Trying to decide between a $6 playing with fier(s) or a $10 cishek sandwich. I like fiers more, but closers can go for crazy prices sometimes in such a deep league and accidentally punting the category has been pretty costly historically. Oh yeah, IP is a 6th category in this league. Thoughts? Find a new league isn’t an acceptable answer…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Damian: Fiers, not close

  8. MrMojoRisin says:
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    Some expert was just reviewing his team in an experts league and was ecstatic that he got Weaver and Zimmermann to lead his staff in a standard 5×5 league.
    I just giggled and wished I was in their league where my 5th starter was gonna be more valuable than his expensive #1 b/c of a lack of K’s.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @MrMojoRisin: Maybe he thought he was in a 4×4

  9. Beastman says:
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    Totally agree on this! Hopefully the wool will still be pulled over plenty of manager’s eyes (Weaver, wool, wakka wakka) when it comes time to draft/bid for “name” pitcher in the early rounds.

    Grey, I set up a Razzball league last night and am just awaiting permission to the Google docs spreadsheet. If you didn’t receive it, is there something else I need to be doing?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beastman: Agreed… You should’ve received confirmation by now, if you haven’t let me know and I’ll look into it…

      • Beastman says:
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        @Grey: I just checked now and I don’t have permission. This may be a result of my ineptitude, but I’m going to hold out hope that it’s not. Let me know!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Looking into it…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          You’re added now…

  10. FG 250 says:
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    The value with Weaver is volume. He has a very deceptive delivery making it very difficult for righties to pick up the ball. Plus he’s like 6’7″ so he doesn’t need to throw 95 mph to be effective. I’m not saying he isn’t overrrated because I don’t have him in my top 10, but he did throw 200+ innings the 3 previous years to last year. Put him down for 215 IP and 7 K/9 and you have 167 Ks. As long as he can keep getting weak contact, he’s good for solid ratios and a lot of wins (18 or so) with that lineup. You can’t predict 18 wins for 95% of pitchers and he’s one of them (even though wins can be flucky, but not for a team that may win 100).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @FG 250: I don’t buy this, sorry…

  11. rainbowtrout says:
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    morning greystachio, quick query:
    need to keep 1 from (forfeit draft pick for round listed):
    p. fielder 2nd round
    j. hamilton 3rd round
    d. price 4th round
    b. posey 7th round
    r.a. dickey 19th round

    was leaning posey but dickey may be solid too, what do you think? I would prefer a hitter but keeping an ace in the 19th round would allow me to focus on hitting in draft. (2 keepers total, other is trout).

  12. Mr Gray: You are in my Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers if that makes any difference..

    E S T R A D A !!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @T Moore: Thanks, T Moore!

  13. Carnac says:
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    “Who’s Who Among American Fantasy Baseball Bloggers?”

    It’s cheaper to get into the “Who’s Who Among Belgian Fantasy Baseball Bloggers.”

    Oddly enough, it’s more expensive to get into the “Who’s Who Among Fantasy Baseball Bloggers of the Starbucks on Glendale in Silver Lake.”

    • Jack Full Bush says:
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      @Carnac: the hipsters have ruined it, might be cheaper to go to the Red Lion for morning beers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Carnac: Easily still to get into “Who’s Who Among Screenwriters of the Starbucks of Los Angeles.”

      • Jack Full Bush says:
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        @Grey: but isn’t that every writer at every Starbucks?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Quiet, I’m listening to smooth jazz over the surround sound…

          • Jack Full Bush says:
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            @Grey: hey buddy, if would get out of your faux cafe and have some real life experience then maybe you might be able to produce something you can sell……can I get a half cap sugar free soy latte with whip cream

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              It’s really hard to juggle making lattes, answering fantasy questions and writing!

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: I said a half cap you fool.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’d happily make you another one. That drink is two shots of classic, it’s not yours, sir.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: hey is there an “actor” back there who can do this job?

              • Hats for Bats says:
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                @Grey: I work at a Starbucks. Let me just tell you how damn hard it is to have a good fantasy baseball discussion when you have a line of 8 drinks. I start saying crazy things like, “Yeah I think Brian Roberts might do something this year”

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  HA! Be really something if Brian Roberts was waiting for one of those lattes…

  14. Wilsonian says:
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    No thanks to you, and my own little man-crush, I really want Goldy on my team this year. I can possibly swap Tulo and a pick for Goldy and a better pick, pre-draft. Like my 7th round for his 5th round. This would be for two years of rosterability. Do I stick with Tulo-git 2 Quit or go for the Gold?

    Other keepers are Prince, Longo, JUp, A.Jones.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wilsonian: Hold Tulo, you have a 1st baseman

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Grey: we have two UTIL slots, though, does that change your mind at all?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Nah, hold Tulo…

          • Wilsonian says:
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            @Grey: I shall abide by your word, Mr. Grey, sir.

  15. JJ says:
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    Awesome Grey! In a strange way I’m sort of upset when you post stuff like this. I don’t want any of my league mates seeing it. I want them to draft Weaver in the 4th/5th rd. Anyway, need your thoughts on my first draft of the year. I appreciate it!
    c- AJ Pier; 1b- Goldschmidt; 2b- Kinsler; ss- Asdrubal; 3b- Miggy; mi-Cozart; ci- Ike D; of- Ad Jones, Holliday, Beltran, Hart, L. Cain; util- Laroche; sp- MadBum, Scherzer, Niese, Sadarmijza, Burnett, Iwakuma; rp- Romo, Betancourt, Grilli, Kenley, Cook. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JJ: Tell your friends the internet gives skin cancer so they don’t go on it… I don’t know how many teams in this league…

      • JJ says:
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        @Grey: sorry i’m a dunce. 12 team obp league, i was picking 4th.

        • PujolsJunkie says:
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          @JJ:

          If you got Cabrera drafting 4th, there are three guys that qualify as bigger dunces than you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Team looks solid, I like your hitting a bit more than your pitching, pitching isn’t bad, but your last couple of starters are pretty bleh…

  16. coco krispie says:
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    Grey, when do you take a catcher in a 2 catcher 15 team league 5×5? I usually punt in the standard setup but don’t want to be stuck with david ross as I’ve never played in a 2 c league. wilin or sal perez in the 6th/7th too early?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @coco krispie: Usually take one around 10th round and another at the end of the draft…

  17. Jay29 says:
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    I’m not a Weaver apologist, and I can almost guarantee I won’t end up with Weaver this year because I still trust him less than most owners, but I will say a couple things in his defense:

    -His ERA has beaten his xFIP in 6 out of 7 MLB seasons.

    -His FIP (based off actual HR/FB) is consistently 0.30 to 0.60 less than his xFIP (based on league average HR/FB). Thanks in part to his home park, he is always right around 1 HR/9. Obviously, that could easily shoot up near ~1.2 with some bad luck, but I don’t think it’ll suddenly make him a 3.80 ERA guy, so I kinda throw out xFIP for some pitchers. I like FanGraphs’ SIERA the best as an ERA predictor (but some starters, like Weaver, or Matt Cain, still consistently beat or fall behind their SIERA enough to make me think there’s more to it).

    -His WHIP the last three years: 1.07, 1.01, 1.02. Even if he regresses to 1.10, he’s extremely helpful there, and can make up that K-value.

    -His career BABIP is .271 thanks to being a FB pitcher, so while his .241 last year seems low, we shouldn’t expect it to bounce up to ~.300. Hence, his WHIP should still be solid.

    Plus a kinda-bad sign that you didn’t already point out:

    -His SwStrk% last year dropped to 8.5% — it was 11.2% in 2010 and 9.1% in 2011 (career 9.4%). That, coupled with the velocity loss, is troubling, but then again, his career high for a year is 90.4 mph, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to pitch in that range. He’s not a guy that went from 95 to 88, so it’s not a scary velocity drop to me at this point.

    • @Jay29: Good comment! I agree with you that Weaver has shown that he can beat his FIP – just like someone like Vazquez (and Greinke) seems(ed) to always underperform vs. FIP.

      But agree with Grey’s general premise that Weaver is overvalued based on ADP. No way he’ll end up on any of my teams – especially w/ that K rate and FB velocity.

      • Jay29 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Oh yeah, I like him around $16-17 in my auction, and I’m willing to bet at least somebody in my league puts him in the low $20s.

        Slightly off-topic, not sure if this is something you look at, but I always make sure to look at K/GS as well as K/9. It’s a subtle difference, but it’s really what you’re after in fantasy SPs — a guy who goes 7 IP, 6 Ks regularly is more valuable in Ks than the guy who goes 5 IP, 5 Ks regularly. The K/9 is better for the latter guy, but you’re shooting for total Ks, after all. I think people get excited about some SPs with high K-rates but ignore the fact that they can’t go deep into games (Bauer, Liriano, Volquez come to mind).

        • Another good point. For the $ values, I take K/9 from Steamer/CAIRO and then base my IP projections based on last year’s IP per GS (making a minor modification for someone like Strasberg who was babied). SPs are generally on a 100 pitch limit and it’s tough to change one’s IP/GS unless you have major changes to your control, pitching approach (e.g., pitch to contact), or, perhaps, missing more bats (less foul balls).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay29: Agree with Rudy… Good comment, he’s still overrated…

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Jay29: kudos

  18. GTS says:
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    Hey fellas. I proposed a trade to give my Allen Craig ($8) for his Matt Moore ($4). I could use a pitcher plus I will probably not keep Craig anyway. In favor of this trade? Would you keep a $4 Moore over a $16 Jordan Zim?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @GTS: Sounds decent, I’d go Moore…

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @GTS: Moore for 1/4 the price over Zimmermann? Absolutely.

  19. Beau says:
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    Some keeper advice questions. 10 team ESPN 5×5 auction league. Can sign any 2 of Myers, Profar, Bundy, Taveras, Middlebrooks for $1 in ’13 and $6 in ’14. Option of Butler at $11. Already keeping Trout, Harper, Ellsbury, Jesus Montero, and Matt Moore. Considering dropping Dom Brown at $6 in ’13 and $16 in ’14 (I would be penalized half his salary) to keep someone else. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Beau: Myers and Bundy for $6…

      • Beau says:
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        @Grey: Is your reason not to go with Taveras a positional thing? You seemed much higher on him than Bundy in your previous articles. Thoughts on cutting Dom Brown?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, positional and this is for this year and next…

  20. stumanji says:
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    I was offered $3 Profar for my $2 Headley in my 5 keeper H2H league. No minor league slots so you’d have to be pretty sure about a guy to keep him before he even has a full time job. Right now I’m planning to keep Headley, $3 Rizzo, $3 Medlen, $4 Aaron Hill, and $18 BJ Upton probably. Obviously Headley established himself last year and is great value, but is Profar special enough to give him up? Can keep forever at 120% of previous year’s draft price, so either of these guys would potentially to be on my team for a long time.

    Another consideration is that Miggy Cabrera, Longo, Panda, Aramis, possibly other top 3B will not be kept, so I could always pay for 3B production via the draft this year, so I would not necessarily be downgrading from Headley to like Pedro Feliz or something.

  21. Micah Stupak says:
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    Hi all, anyone have any thoughts on Bruce willing to play center? I’m not planning on keeping him at $39, but I’m trying to figure out how much his value jumps as a CF (if he keeps up similar production). That is almost worth it as a CF. My league is 16 team, LF/CF/RF/OF, and OBP/SLG swapped for AVG/HR.

      • Micah Stupak says:
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        @Grey: I was thinking his durability might make up for it but I think I’m just trying to convince myself there. You’re right. Better to let him go back to auction and try and get him again for less if I want.

        Also, anyone: thoughts on LF or CF being more shallow this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Don’t really have any thoughts on it, but LF feels more shallow, whether that is true I haven’t researched…

          • Micah Stupak says:
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            @Grey: I was thinking the same thing, so I must be on to something. Thanks.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem…

    • Micah Stupak says:
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      PS: $260 budget.

      • PujolsJunkie says:
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        @Micah Stupak: That seems like a good $10 over his value to me, even with CF inflation figured into the mix. I’d probably spend no more than $20 on him in H2H and $25-$27 in roto.

  22. Mowses says:
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    Is there going to be a Rankings “Tiers” post like in previous years? That spreadsheet thing?

  23. your best friend says:
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    I got 6th overall pick of my new keeper league.

    coming up on my turn!

    dread pirate or stanton?

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @your best friend: I’d take the all around game of McCutch. He’ll trump Stanton everywhere but in HR. Just get a slugger at both corner spots and you’re golden.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Stanton

  24. Steve Jeltz says:
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    @grey,
    I have to pick 6. H2H, points, no penalty, can keep forever. Pitchers seem to outs core hitters slightly due to scoring.

    Hosmer
    Hill
    Lawrie
    Machado
    Bruce
    Cargo
    Kemp
    Harper
    Verlander
    Jordan Zimmerman
    Medlen

    Thanks for you input!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Verlander, Harper, Kemp, CarGo, Bruce, Zimmermann…

    • PujolsJunkie says:
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      @Steve Jeltz:

      Verlander, Harper, Kemp, CarGo, Zimmermann, Medlen

  25. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Is there any arm ownable from the Angels this year, you don’t like Weaver, Wilson, Hansen, Vargas and no one likes blanton. But they have great offensive potential and can win a lot of games. who is the king of the dips&$t?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arte Moreno

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey: cynical snobby LA’er

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It is me, sigh….

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: me too, we know our own. And in reference to what Rudy says, I don’t like driving down to the Big A either. Orange County makes me uncomfortable

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              The Orange Curtain, no thank you…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: It does have that Nazi-Soviet rule with an Iron Fist thing going on. Speaking of Iron Fists, I found that Pornosonic album on Amazon….only available on CD or via MP3. I’m getting a copy and going to make some ringtones of great bass lines

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I have the best ringtone of all time on my phone…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: what’s that?