Thomas Crapper did not invent the flush toilet, but he did much to popularize it, according to Wikipedia.  Crapper owned the first toilet showroom and due to his name being on a large number of toilets, U.S. servicemen would see it and say, “I need to go to the Crapper.” Hopefully, this adds a bit of context when I say Jean Segura spent 2014 in the crapper.  The legacy of Crapper doesn’t end there. Up until Crapper’s time, the inventor and biggest proponent of the flush toilet was John Harington.  He was also a popular writer and provocateur who spoke often about the toilet, beating it into people’s brains to call it “The John.”  With that in mind, we can also say the Brewers shortstop for 2014 was “In the John” Segura.  In 2013, Segura’s 2nd half fell off, and it led people to think his 2014 would be putrid.  Those people were proven to be correct.  I still don’t buy it.  Yes, I don’t buy Segura is bad even after he had a terrible 2014, which was hinted at by a terrible 2nd half in 2013.  Yes, I am excited about Segura even though he has a good three months to his entire career.  I’m throwing last year out. He had a sub-par April, was moved down the order, and never bounced back. Things really went pear-shaped for him in June and July (.196 and .179).  We don’t know his state of mind while his child was sick and then after losing the child.  This had to affect him in some way. Perhaps he wanted to be back with his wife and ailing child, maybe he couldn’t concentrate. I have no idea; no one does but Segura.  If we’re to throw out his June and July, then he hit .276 on the year.  So, just like everyone wants to throw out his huge 1st half in 2013, can’t we also throw out those two months?  Go ahead and answer under your breath, I can still hear you.  Anyway, what can we expect of Jean Segura for 2015 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He’s only 24 years old and he’s already had a season where he was ranked number one as the best shortstop in fantasy (2013; as if you need me to tell you).  Think about this for a moment. If any other player was 24 years old and had a season where he was the best at his position, would he be as underrated as Segura?  Hayzeus Cristo, no.  Joe Mauer is not this underrated and his best season came five years ago and he’s 31 years old now.  Is it that inconceivable (said like Vizzini) to think Segura could again hit 10 homers and steal 40 bases while hitting .275?  This has me near-ulcer crazy.  Why is Segura not a 10 homer guy?  Was someone else hitting his homers the year he did it?  I’m not saying he’s a 20-homer hitter (though some scouts have said he is capable of that).  I’m saying ten homers.  He hit ten homers the one year he played a full minor league season at a level.  He was on pace for it in Double-A until he was called up.  Then he hit 12 homers in 2013.  Ten homers is not a stretch for him.  Then if he hits in the .275 range, he’ll be moved back up the order.  I’ve already said how he could’ve hit .276 last year without his two bad months.  In 2013, he hit .294.  He had the 27th best K-rate in the majors last year (while hitting .246), only striking out 12.6% of the time.  For players with that low of a strikeout rate, he had the 2nd lowest batting average.  The only one that beat him was Andrelton Simmons at .244.  If you don’t strike out, you’re hitting the ball into play.  If you have speed like Segura, you should hit better than .250.  Oh, and speaking of speed, he has 40+ steal speed.  I seriously have no idea why you wouldn’t want to draft Segura where he’s likely to end up going this year.  I’m perplexed, y’all!  For 2015, I’ll give him the projections of 69/10/50/.272/35 with a chance for a lot more upside.

 
  1. no

  2. Greyismyhero says:
    (link)

    As long as we don’t have a JAY MF BRUCE sleeper post I’m all good…Drive on Grey!

    SMOKE THE GREEN!

  3. Ryan says:
    (link)

    I’m with you big time on this post. Segura wore down his rookie season and came back from winter break worn dow still with a heavy burden on his shoulders. These burdens happen though and people come back from them ready to live for what they lost and to hopefully make future babies to carry on the memories. If Segura is going to play this year it will be because he wants to be focused and wants to make a better life for his family. This means you are right, Grey, when you say Segura can be productive in 2015. I think you are underrating him, however, I’m gonna take the over on each of your projections: 69/10/50/.272/35 with the understanding I will lose on the SB category but that’s OK. Take it or leave it, I’m just commenting.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Ryan: I hope he hits the over on them

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
      (link)

      @Ryan: who’s to say whether or not the baby (even in late 2013) was the reason for his trouble then too, or the pregnancy. I’d be all sorts of freaked out creating life forms.

  4. Shaggy says:
    (link)

    Segura or Baez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Shaggy: My rankings start next week

  5. Hoosier Daddy says:
    (link)

    fyi…..I just took a look at Segura’s monthly breakdown on his player page and the feed seems a bit wacky. The SB numbers are solely from 2014, while runs seem to be a compilation of multiple years.

      • Hoosier Daddy says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        This adds up to the correct # of SB for last year, but the runs are WAY inflated from the 60-some he scored:
        Monthly Season Stats | Jean Segura

        R SB
        April 22 5
        May 32 5
        June 20 4
        July 14 2
        August 15 0
        September 23 4

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh, I see… Weird, somehow the number of hits he had moved over to runs… I’ll investigate further, thanks for the heads up!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Fixed, thanks again for pointing it out!

  6. Joe says:
    (link)

    Segura or Dickerson (COL- OF) rd 14 Keeper?

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Joe: Dickerson

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Joe: Agree with F

  7. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Happy New Year homeboy

  8. joet says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Third round in a 15 Teamer.

    Please rank – Puig, Kemp, Braun, Marte.

    • joet says:
      (link)

      Grey,

      Throw Harper in there too.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @joet: Harper, Puig, Marte

  9. Lville Jim says:
    (link)

    At least Crapper was a real person. I’d always heard a guy named (Titzling, Titsling, or Titslinger) had invented the bra. Seems he was only a fictional character from a book. I did read that Crapper made improvements to the flush toilet. He is credited with inventing the ballcock.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Lville Jim: Titsling is from the movie Beaches

  10. stonepie says:
    (link)

    segura isn’t an efficient enough base stealer to get to 35+ swipes. he gets caught far too often and you wonder how often he’ll keep getting the green light if this keeps up. plus, he’s been banished to the bottom on an NL lineup which is a fantasy death sentence.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @stonepie: How did he do it his rookie year?

      • McNulty says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        2013: 77 SB% (SB/SB+CS), he attempted on 36.5% of all 1B+BB
        2014: 69 SB%, he attempted on 22.5% of all 1B+BB

        Even with a projected 270 average, Segura would have to get back to 77% and 36.5% and then some.

        1B+BB isn’t perfect, but close enough for this calculation

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          So he got noticeable slower in a year and can’t steal nine less steals than he did in his rookie year? I don’t agree…

          • stonepie says:
            (link)

            @Grey: no i think teams caught on to him constantly running and decided to pay more attention to him. since the first half of 13, his sb% and attempts have dropped.

  11. The JoGarza says:
    (link)

    What’s up, Grey!

    Was wondering when the rankings are going to drop. Based on last year’s schedule, it should be a week from today. Yay or nay?

    I’m getting the itch AND YOUR RANKINGS ARE THE OINTMENT.

  12. Clint says:
    (link)

    Without letting my Brewer bias rear its head here, I totally agree w/you Grey. With a potential Segura bounceback in mind, which 10 would you keep an 8 team, 10 keeper, h2h league? I don’t technically have to announce until draft time if you think I should wait for some reason. My stable of players is as follows:

    C: Mesoraco
    1B: Freeman
    2B: Altuve
    3B: Seager
    SS: Segura
    OF: Puig, Harper, Bruce
    Util: Bautista, Hunter (and technically Taveras, RIP)
    Bench Bats: Machado, Chris Davis
    SP’s: Pineda, Ventura
    RP’s: Wacha, Gausman
    P’s: Fiers, Cobb, Colon, Henderson Alvarez
    Bench P’s: Shark, Arrieta, Liriano, Fister, Teheran, Salazar, Cingrani

    Thanks as always. 1 roto league 2nd place finish last year and 1 h2h championship last season thanks to Razzball.

    • DeGromulant says:
      (link)

      @Clint: Mesoraco, Freman, Altuve, Puig, Harper, Segura, Bautista, Ventura, Arrietta, Teheran

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Clint: I would wait until the very last minute… Freeman, Altuve, Bautista, Harper, Puig, Davis, Cobb, Shark, Arrieta

      • Clint says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        No #10 guy? Or are you saying the rest are locks, wait on the last one?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I don’t see the rush…

        • Flowers misses his old glasses, but he's ok tho says:
          (link)

          @Clint: i would think bruce, or one of ace ventura/teheran, if you have to pick now. i would assume those unless something else changes (and all sorts of things could happen)

  13. henncoop says:
    (link)

    As a Brewer fan nice to see you have high hopes for Segura despite the off year. Where do you think he goes in a typical 12 team roto draft ? How high do yo think you would need to reach if you felt you just had to have him on your team?
    Thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @henncoop: I don’t think you have to reach much before 180 overall to get him

  14. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    DI’d you catch the first episode last night? I don’t want to do any spoilers.

    • Carnac says:
      (link)

      Come on Jack, take your Downton Abby chitchat offline. We’ve got to protect our brand.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        HA!

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Carnac: when he doesn’t respond to my texts I have to take it somewhere. To you good sir, I will quote Ms. Sarah O’Brien “I’d like to give her the old heave ho–in a dark alley somewhere” and yes, you are her in this.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          To quote Margaret, I need to go upstairs to remove my hat.

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: don’t you get sassy with me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup, I saw it

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: WTF is wrong with some of these people. They are all artists or have some weird job. The blonde art teacher from LA is knucking futs…and a kinda drunk. That usher guy and his teddy bear meatloaf? That can’t be real…can it? So much weird in an hour, I might have to watch each episode twice, Weirdo overload.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Three words: Teddy Bear Meatloaf

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: spaghetti cake?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Was that from Six? I like the drunk girl, she’s a welcome addition to the mix… I also love the big black lady, but I love all big black ladies…

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: the magician did cake. The drunk chick is from LA. The performance artist is west hollywood. Baby’s mama said that is code for drag queen.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  You can take the Leo out of Rio, but not the Rio out of Leo

                  • J-FOH says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: rawr!

  15. James Mouton Crouton says:
    (link)

    I’m competing to win this year and traded Segura for Hanley (and Henry Owens) in a dynasty. I know that Hanley is the better play this year but I still can’t help but feel bad for selling Segura coming off a major disappointing season when I probably could have gotten a boatload in return last offseason. That and I agree that Segura will rebound some, if not a lot and be a nice long-term asset.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, still a decent trade for you though

  16. Spammer Jay says:
    (link)

    Happy New Year Grey! I can’t believe I’m already in here. I’ve never been this early to a fantasy MLB party. I don’t know how you do it year round… anyways, you had me at Jean and now I’m sucked back into your vortex. Not like the winter vortex in the NE.. yours is like a Dyson… not like vacuum with the cool accent, instead a streaming SAGNOF Dyson verses a week of righties vortex.

    BTW… i finally found a fantasy game that my wife likes (no, not that kind-of of game!) it’s Fantasy Bachelorette and it looks like it will be pretty fun. You draft 5 girls and get points for various things they say and do.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Happy New Year! Is there a list you can choose from for what a bachelorette might do? Or can you choose anything? Like ‘have sex with a farm animal’ is worth 60 points?

  17. Jon says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Jansen for Joc Pederson in a keeper?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup

  18. Jon says:
    (link)

    Shoemaker or McHugh for Kolten Wong in a keeper sound fair?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Wong, Shoemaker is fair though

  19. Jon says:
    (link)

    Homer Bailey for Jason Kipnis – which side do you prefer?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Kipnis

  20. birrrdy! says:
    (link)

    Dearest January Grey… awesome stuff. Hoping for your annual keeper input.

    Can keep up to 8 players. 10-team NL only 5×5 , 13 hitters (1 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OFs, 3U ), 10 pitchers, can DL after first week of games, $300 total for keepers and auction draft ($1 min). Here are my choices (in declining order of price):

    OF Ryan Braun $30
    3B David Wright $27
    SP Matt Harvey $26
    1B Joey Votto $25
    2B Dee Gordon $24
    RP Kenley Jansen $23
    SP Cliff Lee $21
    1B/3B Todd Frazier $16
    C Wilson Ramos $16
    SP Hyun-Jin Ryu $16
    SP Michael Wacha $13
    SP Zack Wheeler $13
    OF/1B Lucas Duda $11
    2B Aaron Hill $6
    OF Domonic Brown $4
    SP A.J. Burnett $3
    SS Chris Owings $2
    OF/3B Josh Harrison $2

    Premium on elite players since not much left after 80 keepers off the board going into draft.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Duda, Wheeler, Wacha, Frazier, Gordon, Votto, Wright, Braun

      • birrrdy! says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks! Surprised you included Wright. You usually tell me to ditch him (and have been (w)right)! ;) Harvey and Jansen not worth the price? No love for Harrison at a $2 bargain? Gordon a rare enough commodity to justify price?

        Thanks again for everything!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Harrison’s not bad at that price, I could see skipping Wright for him… Harvey and Jansen seem overpriced…

  21. Andre Louis Moreau says:
    (link)

    Really interested to read about Segura, particularly since I was just offered a deal involving him. Wondered what you thought. (Background, I have Abreu at first, and am in need of starting pitching):

    Offered his Max Scherzer, Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, and Jean Segura
    for my Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Wood and Oswaldo Arcia

    Would hugely appreciate any feedback. All in on Fantasy Bachelorette, BTW. I think the point values are going to be the contentious aspect, though.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds good for you… We need to agree on some categories first…

    • Spammer Jay says:
      (link)

      @Andre Louis Moreau: for our friends, we drafting at our house after all the girls have gotten out of the limo and then we will pause it. Hopefully no one cheats. Anyways, the stakes are relatively low… haha.

  22. Cole says:
    (link)

    I think the thing holding back seggy is the management. I think the lineup will be:
    Go go
    Scooter
    Braun
    Aramis
    Lucroy
    Lind
    Davis
    Segura
    I just don’t see Segura hitting 270 from the 8 hole. I’d love if he were batting 2nd. I know it’s a solid upside low risk play if he’s getting drafted 200th, but for now he has a lot to overcome in addition to simply playing better.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, he needs to move up in the lineup, which is possible if he gets hot and one of the guys up top gets hurt or slumps

      • Cole says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I can say with great certainty that Ramirez will not Aramis time this year and that Braun was not umm, artificially encouraged last year. Actually I can not.
        Are there rumblings of an nfbc league(s) this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’m sure there will be a league or two NFBC style…

  23. Paul Wilson says:
    (link)

    Tanaka – sleeper post or obvious landmine?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t see how he’s a sleeper

  24. JW says:
    (link)

    Good write up as always, looking forward to next weeks rankings

    Need help for my final keeper, Soler or Polanco? Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Soler

  25. SwaggerJackers says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Is Segura much different than Alcides this season?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Segura has more power

  26. Reno 911 says:
    (link)

    Hola Grey. Brewers fan looking to draft a SS after everyone else has (so, cheap). H2H weekly points league (two-time defending champion, thank you very much, but enough about me). Looking forward to draft Segura late/cheap.

    Changing gears, I have all my keepers set, and I have room to keep Tanner Roark for $8. Our league values SPs over all (Felix scored over 750 points on the year, Mike Trout about 550). Roark finished as a top 25 SP last year, scoring as many points as James Shields in three fewer starts. What are your thoughts about Roark, and keeping him for $8? Danke

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds like he’s great value for $8

      • Reno 911 says:
        (link)

        Thanks for confirming my gut feeling. I expect a little regression, but perhaps not, if he can pick up his K-rate to closer to what it was in 2013 (just a couple months w/ WAS).

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  27. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    I was feeling a hankering for a little Thanksgiving dinner food last night and I took my dads suggestion of making stuffing muffins. Holy shizzzzzz balls. I will never make stuffing any other way. It’s like a mouth party you can put in your pocket,

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Damn, that does sound good… I love stuffing any which way though really… Sometimes I make stuffing sandwiches in a sandwich press… Literally bread sandwiches… So good…

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: my dad got the idea out of the wall street journal. Just a nice crispy shell with delicious stuffing on the inside

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, love that’s where he got it… We might have to stat a cooking section of Razzball… Razzbeef…

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Razzbowl? Razzbao?

            he brings a lot of cool cooking tips from the journal

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Ooh, I love both… Especially Razzbao

  28. UL's Toothpick says:
    (link)

    Segura @ #136 after 13 NFBC drafts and is the #9 SS behind Andrus and in front of XB…

    I rolled with Al Shittus for the SBs. He is #172 and #11 SS…

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @UL’s Toothpick: I like the value of Alcides where you got him.

      • Big League Wood says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH:

        I took Escobar at 144 in my draft. Segura went at 125. Andrus way up at 57. Speed went crazy earli in this one.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Doesn’t sound bad

  29. Jon says:
    (link)

    How have your projections for Joc Pederson changed since the Kemp deal? Do you think he has a starting job?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I have changed them, I think he’s the starter now… Rankings and projections come next week…

      • Jon says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Awesome. Can’t wait. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  30. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    ok, that schoop for a-jax deal probably ain’t going. if i could get either duda for 1.6ish for this year only or kennys at league minimum per year 400 K till end of 2017 which do i go heavier for? Obviously if Duda has another good year he’ll cost much more than 1.6 million. 100 mil budgets, i currently have A-Jax for 6.4 (i gave him 6 million extention, back before 2014 season) till end of 2016.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d go Vargas first, but take either

      • goodfold2 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: he might do it for e.santana, who’s bid i matched at 8.77 million. that would leave me with 4 starters, still pretty deep rotation for a 30 team league, with sale/quintana/liriano/hale. i would get back enough money of course to bid on one or two of these: porcello/duffy/kennedy/volquez/fiers/lackey/mccarthy/dickey/petit/worley/peavy/burnett. also, i’m betting he values kennys less than you do, and i might be able to add in a pick with kennys for erv.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d do it with Ervin

  31. donkeycornelius says:
    (link)

    Here’s what I said on March18 1990 “yesterday a star was born folks! He’ll spend a year teaching a girl’s gym class, then get back to being the star he was born to be. “

  32. MB says:
    (link)

    Grey, thanks in advance. Trade Starlin for this guy in keep forever league? roto 5×5

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

  33. Alex says:
    (link)

    Which SP for 2015?

    TJ House or AJ Burnett?

    Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Burnett

  34. Harry Hardenberg says:
    (link)

    grey i’m itching for some rankings

    when will you start rolling those out?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Next Monday

    • Harry Hardenberg says:
      (link)

      @Harry Hardenberg: nevermind! found your earlier post, that they start next week.

  35. Garrett says:
    (link)

    Trying to trade a $23 Freddie Freeman who’s in last year of contract for either :

    Kolten Wong $1
    Jean Seguara $6

    Grey, I’ve been reading all your sleeper posts and know how you feel about Freddie ( although I did win my league last year with him)

    What are your thoughts on trading Freddie for either wong or segura

    and I assume from your projections you like wong more than segura ?

    it’s a standard 5×5 head to head league. Love the site and sleeper posts Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wong… Take followups to my newest post

Comments are closed.