Decided to do a little search of 2nd half splits. I don’t necessarily believe that all guys who were good in the 2nd half last year will just continue their great hitting into the 1st half of 2024. Some guys may just be 2nd half hitters. Some guys might’ve just had a hot, say, August, and it’s making their 2nd half look better than it was. Other guys might just had a good 2nd half, and that’s all it was. Whether it was good matchups or some other convergence of circumstances. For unstints, I saw Wilmer Flores had a great 2nd half, but I didn’t bring that shizz to you, except for that offhanded mention of him in case he’s good in the 1st half of 2024 so I can point to this, and you’ll be like, “He did mention Wilmer, can’t deny that.” No, you can’t! But I’m not really mentioning Wilmer other than to mention him. I also didn’t even mention Adam Duvall’s 2nd half (just mentioned), nor Muncy (bam! Mentioned him too!). Some call me the Daddy of Apophasis, putting the Pop in Apophasis! Or the papi, if there’s Latins reading. Hola! Any hoo! With all of those non-mention mentions aside, the list of top 2nd half hitters was mostly great hitters. I non-mentioned mentioned all the non-top 100 players (out of the top 30), except Isaac Paredes. Finally, Ethel Merman’s favorite land mammal gets his due! So, what can we expect from from Isaac Paredes for 2024 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! I began to roll out my 2024 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out next month. Anyway II, the Isaac Paredes sleeper:
Take a moment and guess how many homers Isaac Paredes hit last year. I’ve said this before, but usually I can guess within three of a guys homers or steals. I missed Paredes by seven. I don’t think I would be the only one if you asked most people. Sure, some people are going to know. The Mermen who love a Paredes, they’ll know. Well, hold onto your flippers, he had 31 homers last year. So, after that huge lead-in about his great 2nd half, you’re likely thinking his 1st half was a disaster. He hit 16 HRs in the 1st half, and 15 in the 2nd. He was as steady as they come! He also has no real splits vs. righties or lefties (he’s a righty), so he played just about every day (143 games) and saw 492 ABs. That’s meant to assuage your worries about Cash. Don’t worry, money. As a psychic told me once, “You’ll be very prosperous.” So, I told her, “Great, I will return when I come into money to pay you. But you already knew that.”
His full line was 71/31/98/.250/1 in 492 ABs. So, we’ve established that the power was steady production last year. The at-bats should be there near-everyday, so the counting stats will be fine. There’s no speed whatsoever, which kinda stinks, but Isaac Paredes is a 3rd baseman, and you don’t get many guys giving steals from there. Also, he has multi-position eligibility (1B, 3B, 2B), so there’s that little bump of fun. That accounts for four of five categories. The batting average is where we need to drill down a bit. He had a .257 BABIP, 10.2% walk rate and 18.2% K%. I get the BABIP being low due to the slow-footed nature of this pardner, but that feels low. He didn’t hit the ball very hard, according to Statcast, but his 31 homers and 31 expected homers in the Trop might tell you different. One number that really stood out in his profile was 54.5% balls pulled. It’s not a terrible thing, he hits the ball hard to the left side, so what? Also, at the top of the pulled ball charts are Semien, Albies, Schwarber, Muncy, Jose Ramirez and a bunch of other great players. It doesn’t matter.
Another two numbers that stood out were his Swing% and Contact%. Isaac Paredes had a 82.9% Contact% on 45.5% Swing%. He was top 50 for lowest Swing% and top 30 for highest Contact%. That says to me he swings on balls he knows he can drive. For a 24-year-old, to show that recognition is promising. This was a guy who was billed as a Hit Tool guy first and foremost coming up. So, yes, he had a low BABIP. Yes, lots of pulled balls. Yes, there was quote-unquote weak contact. But there was also: Knowing when to swing and pulling the ball into the seats on a guy who played his first full year at 24. This is a guy who, when drafted, was described as a natural hitter with easy power, who reminded a lot of people of Gleyber Torres. Oh, and he was the 13th best 3rd baseman last year — already! — and being drafted around the 20th 3rd baseman this year. When he should get better! Yeah, he’s a big-time sleeper. For 2024 fantasy baseball, I’ll give Isaac Paredes projections of 81/33/92/.262/1 in 505 ABs with a chance for more on counting stats, depending on ABs.
