Fantasy baseball managers love chasing breakouts. The problem is that by the time a player has already broken out, you’re paying full price. League-winning pickups happen before the rest of your league notices. That’s where underlying metrics become invaluable. Exit velocity stabilizes before batting average. Plate discipline improves before home runs arrive. Hard-hit rate often tells a story that the traditional stat line simply can’t. As we approach the midpoint in the season, it is time to dig for some second-half breakouts. This week’s Hitter Profiles focus on a group of hitters that all have one thing in common. The surface numbers leave room for skepticism, but the underlying data paints a much different picture. Whether it’s bad luck, a delayed breakout, an injury discount, or a young hitter beginning to figure things out, these are four bats I’m targeting for the second half in redraft leagues.
Gabriel Moreno – C, Arizona Diamondbacks
Remember when Gabriel Moreno was everyone’s trendy breakout catcher? That excitement wasn’t manufactured. We actually caught a glimpse of what his ceiling could look like during Arizona’s magical 2023 postseason run when Moreno launched four home runs while driving in 12 runs over 17 playoff games. It felt like the offensive breakout was only a matter of time. Instead, he’s largely become an afterthought. Fantasy managers moved on after another relatively quiet regular season, and Moreno slipped well off the radar entering 2026. That could prove to be a mistake.
Over the past two weeks, Moreno has quietly been one of the hottest catchers in baseball, hitting .324 while posting a 42.4 percent hard-hit rate. Even more encouraging, he has drawn more walks than strikeouts during that stretch, reinforcing what has always made him unique behind the plate. Elite contact skills simply don’t disappear. The underlying metrics are even more exciting.
In fact, Moreno is producing the strongest underlying metrics of his career. The quality of contact has taken another step forward while maintaining the exceptional bat-to-ball skills that made him one of baseball’s elite prospects. Those are exactly the types of improvements that often precede a second-half surge. Moreno doesn’t need to become a 30-home run catcher to become a fantasy difference-maker. A catcher capable of hitting close to .290 with double-digit home run power is an enormous advantage at one of fantasy baseball’s weakest offensive positions. The breakout everyone predicted might simply be running a year late.
Why Now? The best underlying metrics of his career are finally matching improved production, and catcher remains one of the easiest positions where a batting-average asset can separate you from the competition.
Kevin McGonigle – 3B/SS, Detroit Tigers
Kevin McGonigle might have the most deceptive stat line of any young hitter in fantasy baseball. On the surface, a rookie hitting .282 with six home runs, nine stolen bases, 47 runs scored, and 28 RBI is certainly useful, but it doesn’t exactly scream future fantasy star. The underlying data tells a much different story. McGonigle’s approach is already remarkably advanced for a player who won’t turn 22 until August. He consistently controls the strike zone, limits strikeouts, and continues to make quality contact at rates that normally belong to established veterans. The biggest reason I’m buying is the power and balanced approach.
Last season in the minor leagues, McGonigle posted a healthy 15 percent HR/FB rate. That number has cratered to just five percent in the majors despite many of the underlying quality-of-contact metrics remaining intact. Unless you believe he suddenly forgot how to elevate and drive the baseball, positive regression feels inevitable. That’s exactly the type of hidden indicator fantasy managers should target.
The offensive profile is beginning to resemble a best-case version of Jose Ramirez. No, I’m not projecting McGonigle to become the next Jose Ramirez overnight, but the combination of elite bat control, excellent strike-zone awareness, emerging power and stolen-base ability creates a similar blueprint if everything clicks. He’s also still just 21 years old. Sometimes fantasy managers become so focused on immediate production that they forget just how rare it is for a 21-year-old to already display this level of offensive polish. The counting stats have been solid. The underlying process suggests they’re only scratching the surface.
Why Now? A dramatic gap between his major league and minor league HR/FB rates suggests more power is coming, and his mature offensive approach gives him one of the highest floors among young hitters.
Trent Grisham – OF, New York Yankees
Injured players become forgotten players. That’s exactly why Trent Grisham is one of my favorite second-half targets. Since landing on the injured list June 13 with a hamstring strain, Grisham has quietly disappeared from fantasy conversations. The Yankees have pieced together center field while he recovers, and many fantasy managers simply moved on. Only 66 percent of CBS leagues still have him rostered. That’s surprising for a player who blasted 34 home runs just last season. The batting average (.232) continues to scare people away, but that’s causing fantasy managers to overlook several encouraging trends, starting with an expected batting average of .258. Grisham has been squaring up the baseball significantly better than he did a year ago, yet his HR/FB rate has been cut roughly in half despite the improved quality of contact. That disconnect rarely lasts forever.
Even before the injury, he had already chipped in six stolen bases, adding another dimension to his fantasy profile that often gets overlooked. If the home run rate begins normalizing while he continues running, Grisham suddenly becomes a valuable five-category contributor instead of simply a power-only outfielder. Everything coming out of New York suggests his recovery is progressing on schedule, putting him in position to return around the All-Star break. Sometimes buying low simply means buying injured.
Why Now? The injury discount has created a buying opportunity just as positive power regression appears likely, and his combination of home run upside and sneaky speed remains widely undervalued.
Cam Smith – OF, Houston Astros
A few weeks ago, fantasy managers were waiting for Jac Caglianone’s adjustments to translate into fantasy production. Then they did. Cam Smith appears to be following that same blueprint. The raw tools have never been the question. What has changed is how consistently he’s beginning to apply them against major league pitching. Smith’s bat speed and contact rates already compare favorably with established young power hitters like James Wood and Jordan Walker. That’s elite company for a player still learning how opposing pitchers are attacking him. Even more encouraging is a subtle change in his batted-ball profile. His fly-ball rate has climbed by five percentage points compared to last season. That may not sound significant, but more balls in the air often unlock power production for hitters who already possess above-average bat speed. Combined with improved swing decisions and more consistent hard contact, it’s another indication that the offensive breakout is beginning to take shape.
Young hitters rarely improve in a straight line. They adjust, stumble, adjust again, and eventually everything clicks. Smith looks like he’s approaching that moment. Houston continues to give him everyday opportunities, and the underlying metrics increasingly resemble the hitter scouts envisioned throughout his climb to the majors. The breakout may not happen tomorrow. But all the ingredients are sitting on the kitchen counter.
Why Now? Elite bat speed, improving launch angle, and everyday playing time are exactly the combination fantasy managers should be betting on before the box score catches up.
Any chance of Busch turning his season around? Thinking of dumping him for an upside play like Manzardo?
I am generally out on Busch. I would be willing to cut bait and play the hot hand.
He’s got such a sweet week home at Wrigley v 6 RHP, no CYA candidates among them. Why do I continue to abuse and torture myself?