That’s a text message from Gerrit Cole to Brian “Bubba” Hawkins trying to procure some spin-inducing substance. That text message is being used in a court filing against the MLB, as Bubba claims he’s being used as a scapegoat. There’s only so many institutions that could be under fire from someone named Bubba. In the last ten years, the name Bubba only shows up three times in the U.S. court system: Bubba vs. Lowe’s for faulty outdoor furniture; Bubba vs. Pfizer as a manufacturer and distributor of trucker speed; Bubba vs. Bubblicious gum for not being at all Bubba-approved. That last case got thrown out. Okay, I kid, about the latter of this nonsense, but that really is a text from Gerrit Cole and he’s named in Bubba Hawkins’s court filing. Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and just about every Angels’ pitcher of the last decade-plus are also named. It’s not just a Gerrit Cole issue. It’s a league issue.

“State your full name for the jury.”
“Brian Hawkins, but you can call me Bubba. Big Bad Bubba if you’re nasty.”
“Does Gerrit Cole rely on spin more than others?”
“How do you define ‘more’ and ‘others?'”

You try to trip up Bubba and Bubba persists. Okay, we had some s’s and g’s but this isn’t a non-issue for Gerrit Cole. Suppose he can’t get his Bubba-patented sticky substance, does that affect him? What if it already has started affecting him? So, what can we expect from Gerrit Cole for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

Spin is down; Whiff% is down, PutAway% is down, xSLG is up, xBA is up on fastball, exit velocity is–Well, you can see for yourself, if you have very good eyesight. Small samples be damned, but Gerrit Cole was not the pitcher last year he was in 2019. Diving deeper, his vertical movement on his curve was down, his fastball was flat, he didn’t even throw his sinker. Did he not throw it because he couldn’t figure out how due to no longer having Bubba’s Love Juice? Don’t know. Ya know what I’d like to have when drafting a starter in the 1st overall round? Knowing. Ya know, knowing! Is that asking too much? Here’s a random unrelated sample of an apple and an orange:  If Freddie Freeman and Gerrit Cole are both healthy, do you know what you’re getting from Freddie Freeman? Yes? Cool. How about Cole? Oh, you think you do know? Okay.

Gerrit Cole with a huge four-seam backspin has a much wider margin of error, because of the ability to throw it past, and above the bat barrel, even if the hitter knows what’s up, literally. A flatter, lower-spin fastball will drop into the bat path. Here’s one former Razzball writer (hey, Lance!), spotting something:

After he was spotted — and that tweet was seen by almost 3 million people, and had 30K likes, so it went around — Cole followed that start with two disasters where he was rocked for nine runs in ten innings. He came back around and finished strong, but could people have been like, “Yo, chill on the Bubba Stick ‘Ems for a second while the heat dies down?” I don’t know. But I am asking you once again, you know Freddie Freeman, do you know Gerrit Cole? I don’t know if anything will come of Bubba vs. Baseball. But I’ve seen enough to at least chill with drafting Gerrit Cole as one of the first two pitchers off the board, and this doesn’t even take into consideration I wouldn’t draft a starter that early ever. Stamp Gerrit Cole schmohawk and let someone else deal with the headache.

191 Comments
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Jon
Jon
1 year ago

In an auction keeper league – would you rather have Ryu or Laureano for the next 3 years (assuming same cost)? I traded the latter for the former to emphasize ‘21…seemed safer. But hard to give up Laureano’s upside as he enters his prime. Clearly looking for trade validation. Validitrade.

Curious George
Curious George
1 year ago

Why are projections on Lindor so down on him this year vs last?

Curious George
Curious George
Reply to  Curious George
1 year ago

*Not necessarily yours, but projections in general.

JB
JB
1 year ago

Do you think Osuna plays this season?

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  JB
1 year ago

don’t forget he had a torn elbow tendon when news last noted anything about him. it’s not just an issue with him not being signed from some new woman beating up thing (which he’s been caught doing now at least twice). on a lighter note he really should borrow some zip ties from chapman on this kind of stuff, people escaping is a real problem in our culture. they just blab everything when they escape. it’s shameful.

The Harrow
The Harrow
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

he didn’t keep his pimp hand strong enough, right (bonus points for those around here that are both here and get what this reference is)

captain obvious
captain obvious
1 year ago

Grey can you do me a favor and link Rudy’s war room? I signed up but it it’s your free one. Have my rcl tomorrow. Thanks.

Aubrey Plaza's Pillow
Aubrey Plaza's Pillow
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

i got one from him yesterday when i couldn’t get the on site one to work (he said that’s grey’s department on the site one), here:

https://razzball.com/2021-rudys-draft-room/

it does appear you have to have at least paid for rudy’s package (NOT the DFS stuff, just the roto deluxe, which i haven’t checked the prices but in all other years it was in the 20-25 range and gets you hittertron/SON etc. pretty much everything but the DFS bot)

captain obvious
captain obvious
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

It was like 35. I’ve talked to Rudy. Thanks.

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
1 year ago

same keeper settings as that AL only above, but this is for 16 team mixed roto keep 4. scoring/rosters a bit different too:

scoring: 5×5 stuff with OBP over AVG, hits, steals %, OPS, total bases, holds, net saves and holds, k/BB, k/9, QS added

rosters: 1 of every hitting (specific LF/CF/RF), a 4th any OF, CI, MI, 3 utils, 5 SP, 5 RP, 1 P, 3 BN, max DL, 2 NA.

options:
– soto (1)
– freeman (2, barely the 17th ADP late last season FP player)
– hiura (4)
– i.happ (18)
– carlson (19)
– cronenworth (last, 28)
– a-dick (28)
– bieber (2)
– gallen (8)
– lynn (8)
– javier (28)

obv soto then which other 3.

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

sorry, didn’t explain, if you keep 2 guys in same round (bieber/freeman) one has to move to better round, but soto in 1st, that isn’t possible. can’t keep 2 1st rounders for that reason (unless you traded for a 2nd 1st rounder)

dubjay
dubjay
1 year ago

Hey Grey,
So I missed out on Muncy off of waivers in my 12 team H2H keeper league(keep 10). My number 3 waiver priority wasnt enough. So as it stands, I still have Kepler as a 5th OF/bench spot in a 3 OF league. A.Heaney and C.Mize were just dropped. With my pitching staff would you consider dropping Kepler or Neris for either of those arms? Ive been fooled by Heaney before but still think he will breakout at some point.
SP-BIEBER, SNELL, CASTILLO, F.VALDEZ, F.MONTAS, J.PAXTON, MEANS, YARBROUGH
RP-KARINCHAK, T.ROGERS, NERIS

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
1 year ago

That DC we’re in is brutal. Just about everybody in there has done their homework. Some guys I was sure would be there are gone. Bobby Bradley has UTIL only eligibility and was buried somewhere in the 780 pick range and he went in the 40th. And I was like, “Damn…good pick.” Whomever wins this one will god damn deserve it.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

How’s your DC going? I signed up for one through the link that either Donkey or Greg from NFBC sent me, but it threw me into a random one for some reason. Maybe next year (unless there are any more upcoming). How’re you pivoting against the Grey snipers?

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I think OTS mentioned that you drafted Polanco at some point, who seems like the most un-Grey player ever. Figured you were getting sniped left and right when I heard that.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Nice. I remember you mentioning Bradley. It’s tough getting decent bats after the 30th or so.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Hardest draft I have had all year. I load my queue with 5-6 guys and they are gone in 10 picks.

My Razzslam is completely different. I was deciding between Conforto and Castellanos at the 5/6 turn. I took Conforto. The board came completely around and Castellanos was still there at the 7/8 turn.

And thanks. Picking Bradley was just a matter of time for me. I have been searching the board so hard that I have even checked to see if anyone was hidden below the placeholders.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  hot corner
1 year ago

He homered again today. He’s definitely a BSOHL guy. For where you got him, tons of upside in a part of the draft where there are no power bats around at all.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

He hit a freakin’ monster homer. Wind was blowing out like crazy. I can’t draft him though. He’s never had a professional at bat in a game above rookie ball.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Just needs to beat out Jake Bauers for the 1B job.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  hot corner
1 year ago

That’s like having to beat out Pujols in a foot race these days

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

Haha. I actually found Bradley because I had already drafted Pujols and thought that there MUST be someone better.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

I just noticed that Bradley was drafted about 20 minutes after you posted this. Looks like we’ve got a razz lurker on our hands

bossmanjunior333
bossmanjunior333
1 year ago

I just joined a 12 team points league keeper and for some reason they use 6 IL spots. How would this affect your strategy? More open to injury prone players or drafting high upside players starting the year on the IL? Thanks!

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
1 year ago

AL only 10 team h2h keep 3 at previous season’s FP ADP costs. OBP over AVG, net steals over steals, total bases added, QS over wins, holds added.
rosters: 1 of every hitter (4 any OF), a CI, a MI, 1 util. 5 SP, 4 RP, 4 BN. 1 NA, max DL.

options:
arozarena (25th, was deeper than 250th AL FP ADP guys) = easy yes

other 2:
– lou bob (drafted him early last year, 5). = likely yes
– vlad (had him since he was a last rounder, now expensive 3)
– gallo (also for years, getting more expensive though last 2 years, 4)
– leody (25)
– ohtani (hitter only, 7)
– bieber (1)
– karinchak (22)
– bassitt (19)
– odorizzi (9)

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

interesting on the chalk SP at price. my guess is the utter horribleness of AL pitching in general leads to this, or is it more about my other options not being great (certainly for hitters that’s true (not counting lou bob/arozarena) but bassitt/karinchak seem pretty valuey). also i forgot, but we pick our draft slots based on reverse order of standings, and i got 1st or 2nd, which means i’ll have 5th or 6th (middle) as everybody else picks their draft slot around if they have a 1st rounder but no 2nd rounder and that usually balances out with the guy at 2nd to last pick or last spot getting right in the middle.

Montezuma's Revenge... right now
Montezuma's Revenge... right now

and of course QS bums bieber even more, esp in AL only i suppose.

Cram It
Cram It
1 year ago

I don’t know what the hell is going on in the Razzslam. Half way through round 8 and 6 catchers are gone! One guy took Realmuto and Perez 4/5. I waver between “Am I doing this wrong?” and “everyone else is doing this wrong”.

Captain obvious
Captain obvious
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Position shitity.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

It’s kinda throwing me off lol
I just started grabbing guys I want like Bohm/ Hayes

Eli Man Penguin Boy
Eli Man Penguin Boy
Reply to  FrankGrimes
1 year ago

should make everybody happy that people are using up early draft pick rounds on catchers, esp 2 for ONE guy. fill my money leagues with dumbshits please.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Cram It
1 year ago

Two catchers in 5 rounds not good in any format.

Florida Cracker
Florida Cracker
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

5 catchers picked in my league so far. Realmuto went in the third. haha

jayj
jayj
1 year ago

Pick 4 keepers: obp/slg/sb/sb% , k/9 k/BB, QS. No average league.

Tatis, Jose Ramirez are set. Rendon, Luis Robert, Grisham Biggio, Snell

Drew
Drew
1 year ago

Thanks, Grey!

I’m in a 16-team keeper in which we can keep 7 pitchers total (2 SP slots, 2 RP slots, and 3 general P slots). Having some trouble with all the injuries.

SP: Flaherty, Wheeler, Gausman, Sale, and Verlander
RP: Hendriks, Diaz, Pomeranz (SP eligible too), and Crichton

Do I sell low and try to move Sale and/or Verlander?

Thanks in advance.

Drew
Drew
Reply to  Drew
1 year ago

Forgot to add the cats: W, K, ERA, WHIP, and NSVH.

Drew
Drew
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Forgot to add Morton to the SP mix.

So, flaherty, wheeler, gausman, Morton, sale, and JV

For rp: Diaz, Pom, Hendricks, and Crichton.

Need to fill 2 sp, 2 rp, and 3 P.

Scott Kimmel
Scott Kimmel
1 year ago

Grey,

Would you trade Hunter Greene to acquire Jake Odorizzi?

Sal
Sal
1 year ago

Would you rather keep voit in the 17th round or yelich in the first round

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
1 year ago

I’m with you on Cole. Think he’s going to be a victim of that short porch in Yankee Stadium quite a few times.

Just drafted Todd Frazier near the end of a DC that I’m currently in. That should be indicative of what the board looks like at this point. Fingers crossed that Carlos Quentin makes it to my next pick

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
1 year ago

I made my pick in round 1 for the Razzslam satellite 25 hours ago. Still waiting on my second pick.

Big Magoo
Big Magoo
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Just queue those SPs up and walk away

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Big Magoo
1 year ago

All the pitchers got drafted yesterday because half the 1st round was autopick. Oh the irony.

Florida Cracker
Florida Cracker
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

The Slam league I’m in is in the 11th round. Started noon Monday. Flying along

Ryan
Ryan
1 year ago

Grey or anyone else, as the dynasty rebuild starts to turn the corner, is there a point where you ditch the youngest prospects to take flyers on major league players?

Im holding guys like Kristian Robinson, Daniel Espino, O’Neil Cruz, who are all pretty far from contributing to my team in a meaningful way.

Players like Trevor Rogers, Corbin Martin, Scott Kingery, and others are available on the wire. I wonder if I would be better served to use those roster spots to land a break-out type MLB guy to speed up the rebuild.

Would you dump any of the players I named if you couldn’t find a trade partner?

Thanks, y’all!

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Some donkey just went Cole/Buehler/Hader/Hendriks to open a DC. To each their own I guess, but I wish I had $150 floating around to just throw away like that.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Sorry, a Donkey. Not our Donkey

JB
JB
1 year ago

1B Cody Bellinger 1B,OF | LAD
2B Whit Merrifield 2B,OF | KC
3B Tommy Edman 2B,3B,OF,SS | STL
SS Javier Baez SS | CHC
MI Keston Hiura 2B | MIL
CI EMPTY
OF Nick Castellanos OF | CIN
OF Bryce Harper OF | PHI
OF Ramon Laureano OF | OAK
OF Marcell Ozuna OF | ATL
OF George Springer OF | TOR
DH J.D. Martinez OF | BOS
U Eddie Rosario OF | CLE

Garrett Hampson 2B,OF | COL
Willie Calhoun OF | TEX
Victor Robles OF | WAS
Amed Rosario SS | CLE

Shane Bieber P | CLE
Alex Colome P | MIN
Yu Darvish P | SD
Max Fried P | ATL
German Marquez P | COL
Max Scherzer P | WAS
Blake Treinen P | LAD
Julio Urias P | LAD
Jose Urquidy P | HO

Minors:
Francisco Alvarez C | NYM
Sean Murphy C | OAK
Adley Rutschman C | BAL
Seth Beer 1B | ARI
Bobby Dalbec 1B | BOS
Jared Walsh 1B | LAA
Luis Garcia 2B | WAS
Yusniel Diaz OF | BAL
Alek Manoah P | TOR
Luis Patino P | TB

My weakness is RP and we have holds and saves as separate cat.

What do you think about D Williams and W Castro if they are still there. Santander is a stud but im loaded in the OF.

Also we are using CBS, not sure how their ranking compared to yours!

Rosenthal went off the board right before my pick!

Still grab saves or take something else?

D Williams
W Castro
D Moore
Santander
Santana

Saves:
Pomeranz
Soria
Rodriguez
Barnes
Montero.

10 team keep 25…. so 250 are gone before out 6 rd draft.

who would you take here?

JB
JB
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Pomeranz

or should I look for something else

JB
JB
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I could take the top OF and try to trade him for saves?

Phil
Phil
1 year ago

I would have left the Angels’ pitchers out of the report. They would be evidence that the substance did absolutely nothing to boost performance.

Motown_Magic
Motown_Magic
1 year ago

Morning Grey, 2 year lurker and 2/2 on championships since I started reading your content daily. Nobody to give more credit to than yourself. This team below should look familiar based on your tastes. Another rate my team post below, but would appreciate your take.

6×6 OBP, Total Bases, and then QS, Saves, and Holds. 12 team roto dynasty, just had our auction last night. I went light on OF but liking the arsenal of OF2s.
I am light on Saves and Holds but figuring my FAAB will go towards that all year and I will be okay. Thank you in advance

C. Posey/ Ramos
1B. Olson
2B. Biggio
3B: Jo-Ram
SS: Dansby
CI: Muncy
MI: Jorge Polanco
OF: Conforto
OF: Castellanos
OF: Gurriel JR
OF: Kyle Lewis
UT: Franmil
BE: Dylan moore
BE: Wil Myers

P: Sonny Gray
P: Kenta Maeda
P: Pablo Lopez
P: Gausman
P: McCullers
P: Mahle
P: Soroka
RP: Amir Garrett (please win the closer battle)
RP: Richard Rodriguez (please save 10 games out of their 12 total wins)
RP: Gregory Soto
RP: Stephan Crichton
RP: Aaron Bummer
RP: Jordan Romano
RP: Tyler Rogers

Motown_Magic
Motown_Magic
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Much appreciated. thanks again for all you do

Humm Baby
Humm Baby
1 year ago

Nice report.. would not draft him or any arm that early in a re-draft. But I have a keeper problem.

Keeping Acuna and Rendon. No other bats worthy. Have to keep 1 of the following arms: Cole, Bauer, Flaherty or Woodruff. No weird rules with rounds you got them, etc. Have to go Cole among that group, no?

MisforMookie
MisforMookie
1 year ago

OK now that I know my draft position in my friends/family league, time for some strategy questions. This is Yahoo 12 team roto, 6×6 (added OPS, added QS, using SV+H). Lineup is C/1B/2B/3B/SS/3OF/2Util, 3SP/2RP/4P, and some bench space. This a keeper league where each time gets to keep 3.

I have Yelich, Grisham and Lynn as my keepers. I am draft pick 9.

1) How long would you wait to draft OF3? Probably until pretty much everything else and another started is drafted, yeah?

2) Who/what position would you be targeting in rounds 1 and 2 aka picks 9 and 16? I imagine I have to target infield. To give you an idea of how keepers are affecting what’s available, the unavailable infielders include 1B: Freeman, Alonso, 2B: LaMahieu, Merrifield, 3B: Machado, Rendon, Arenado, SS: Tatis, Turner, Seager, Bogaerts, Torres, Andreson, Monesi, Baez. Given the top players left, ahead of the following, I think I’d have a shot at Devers, Lindor, Vlad, Bichette, Abreu, Albies and maaybbbeee Story (the obvious pick here if available). If I could pick up Lindor or Bichette plus Devers, Abreu or Albies, that seems ideal. I’m sure none of these guys make it back to pick 33. There are some fallback options at each position (Olson, Moose or Muncy, maybe Bregman, Moncada or Chapman, and I guess Swanson or Semien), but I’m curious to see your thoughts given these limitations. Thanks

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  MisforMookie
1 year ago

Short answer: just take the best available bat that’s not an OF.

MisforMookie
MisforMookie
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Fair enough, thanks to you both.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
1 year ago

This is going to be long and boring…

Did some digging into RazzSlam yesterday. One of my favorite things in fantasy is trying to figure out different formats and see if there are rules or market inefficiencies that can be exploited. Nothing really jumps out at me as obvious areas where there’s a clear advantage to be gained here, I have kind of started to formulate a strategy and I’ll share it here for y’all to take it for what it’s worth (likely very little).

I started by trying to get a handle on how the scoring format plays out, particularly on the pitching side. One thing that you conclude right away is that there’s not that same difference between relievers in starters. In theory, you could have nothing but relievers or nothing but starters. So the first thing I wanted to do was get a sense for how to value them.

Here are a couple of potential weekly lines:
2 IP 2 (BB+H) 0 ER 3 K 2 S 23 points
7 IP 7 (BB+H) 2 ER 7 K 1 W 23 points
12 IP 15 (BB+H) 6 ER 10 K 1 W 25 points

The first is a closer who has a good two save week, the second is a solid week from a blue chip SP, the third is two QS from a mid to bottom end starter. The exercise was to see whether the best bet is relievers, good starters or go for a lot of mid-tier guys and play for the double starts.

A couple of observations. If a pitcher makes 30 starts, on average he’ll have maybe 8 double start weeks a year. SP1 and SP2 tend to have more as they start the first game and also not to be skipped in short weeks or after rainouts etc. Plus this year, with some teams using 6 man rotations, protecting innings etc., it seems like we’ll see fewer than in years past. So, if you want to match up, you may get say on average 3-5 additional double start weeks per mid to low tier pitching pair versus single quality starter over the course of a year.

The double starts do have a lot of upside appeal, of course. Those mid-tier starters may put up two lines similar to what I credited the higher end starter and you end up with a 50 point week out of that slot. Double starts often prove to be a double edged sword, though, in my experience. You find your Giants pitcher looking at a Monday home start in SF against the Diamondbacks but then a Saturday start at Coors.

Because IP is the clear driver of points for pitching and because a two start week offers double the opportunity for wins, I still see the mid- tier double start as a slight advantage over a single start from an ace, except for the fact that aces tend to get deeper into games and have an higher win per start ratio. Low end starters at volume I think are likely to under perform aces even with a two start advantage. Going in, I assumed loading up on starters to leverage the double weeks was the play, but I don’t think so any more.

As for closers, their upside is more or less capped. They are, however, also pretty predictable. They are useless when they get no saves, perhaps your 8th or 9th valued pitcher in a week with one save, generally useful in 2+ save weeks. I think they can have a stabilizing effect on a staff and you should look for value in your draft if you can get it, but too many relievers is not the route to go because innings are going to be king in the pitcher scoring.

With starters, I think the volume play starts to become a case of diminishing returns. Depending on how many SPs you have, you’re not getting a huge increase in double starts over the course of a season. Double starts from a mid to low tier pitcher are likely to be most often only as valuable as good starts from aces. And here’s the thing, to get the volume double start advantage, you need to use two roster spots to get the same production you’re likely to get from a higher end starter and that is important because…

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Probably the most interesting thing about the best ball format is the introduction of the idea of statistical dispersion. If you’ve ever worked in a restaurant, you know the experience of either being slammed or idle. Baseball stats don’t spread like peanut butter, evenly across the season. A guy who hits 28 homers in a season isn’t going to hit exactly one per week. As I mentioned above, pitchers, in this context, especially the good ones, tend to be more consistent in their weekly statistical output. Not to say they are clockwork, but, to my mind, enough to be important to this conversation.

If you’ve played much weekly head to head league, you’ve probably experienced this, where a scrub goes off against your team and sinks the week. The way to take advantage of the performance volatility is, of course, numbers. The larger number of bat, the wider range of outcomes in a week and, to an extent, driven by random statistical variance imposed by the week to week format, which minimizes the season long advantage held by the top players over the bottom.

Conclusion: I want to get as many good but not necessarily great hitters as I can and in order to do that, I need roster spots. I can gain a few roster spot advantages by drafting fewer starting pitcher but of higher quality than I would in a standard league.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Interesting. I took two starter in first five rounds. Kinda regretted it but we’ll see…

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  FrankGrimes
1 year ago

Yeah, you and I will be in the same boat anyway. I think the thing is, in this format, roster spots are a huge resource. If you had a roto team where you were allowed to take the option to skip your first 10 rounds but then have two picks per round for the rest of the draft and hold all those extra players, you’d have to really think about it, but in this format it would be a no brainer to take the extra players in my opinion. The ace has the opportunity to give you the production you could get from two roster spots with pitchers taken later on.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Mid 6th only 18 pitchers gone where as in the DC they was mostly gone after second round.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  FrankGrimes
1 year ago

That’s the other thing, especially in a Razzball focused world, is those falling aces might actually be really valuable in this format.

FrankGrimes
FrankGrimes
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Counting on it.
If I miss on my good(not top tier bats) I’m toast haha
At least in this draft bats are going fast….

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  FrankGrimes
1 year ago

I am winging it and just drafting best player available for now. Feeling pretty good thru 4 rounds but picking from the 12 spot is brutal. It is pretty much make my picks and then wait 12+ hours.

Trea / J-Ram / Springer / Flaherty

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  hot corner
1 year ago

I made my first pick out of the 2 at 10 yesterday morning and I haven’t picked again yet.

hot corner
hot corner
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yeah and the top 2 in my queue got me at the 5/6 turn – Conforto and Olson.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Like in the DC you need a shizton of SP and while you need some bench bats to avoid taking a zero in places, for the most part (best case scenario) those guys will just sit on the bench and do nothing all year. In this format, if a guy plays every day, he’s definitely of value.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Which was better for your team last year, the hitting or the pitching? Or was it balanced? Do you remember what your hitter pitcher split was on your roster?

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Looks like you were going pretty hitting heavy and then pivoted to SP like you said in the comments. Thanks for the link.

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

That’s my takeaway….draft like you would an RCL. I want bats and volume pitchers. Any SP schlep can pitch a gem any given outing. Since it’s 9 pitchers though, you certainly want someone to rely on.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I think my main adjustment to how I normally draft is take more sure things in the arms and go as heavy on the bench bats as possible.

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

For sure

OaktownSteve
OaktownSteve
Reply to  OaktownSteve
1 year ago

Although I will say in the case of Ray that Ks are diminished in value to my mind here. It’s all about innings and ratio.

For instance:

5 IP 8 BB+H 12K
7IP 7 BB+H 5K

Both 19 points

Peter Sickman-Garner
Peter Sickman-Garner
1 year ago

Thanks to Razzball (and the fact that I’m in a keeper league), I assembled a staff with Cole, Bieber, and Gallen headlining and never had to waste a high pick to get them. I’ve been thinking of dealing Cole for a 3B. Given that most people overvalue pitching (this isn’t an RCL) does it seem reasonable to expect a top tier (per Razzball) 3B in exchange for Cole?

Let’s Play Two
Let’s Play Two
1 year ago

I’m in a 6 team standard roto league.

Hitters

C- 1B- 2B- 3B- SS- 2 IF – 4 OF – 2 UTIL

4 bench

Would you prioritize and go after SB in this size league on draft day in the first few rounds?

toolshed
toolshed
1 year ago

I know spring stats don’t mean much and the reds aren’t the smartest org but antone has my attention. His statcast numbers seem to back it up. Do you expect him to won a job in the rotation. His competition is Miley and Lorenzen. Thanks

Jah
Jah
1 year ago

Is getting caught cheating going to affect Bregman too?

10-team H2H points, Keep 5 forever off our 2019 roster. Prelim email draft fills out the first 50 keepers. My guys:
Soto, Turner
Vlad
Flaherty
Yu Darvish, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker

I am probably throwing Tucker back into the pool…so my decision is Bregman vs Darvish?
What 5 would you keep?

Also we have a weird rule where you can keep a 6th player but he must be drafted in the 20th round or later in the previous draft, and remain on your roster all year, no dropsies. Ohtani and Jeff McNeil qualify for this on my roster. Ohtani, right? This brings me to another question/comment. Over the last couple preseasons, have you ever sorted by most projected points, and seen Ohtani’s name at the top WELL ABOVE Trout, Betts, Cole, Degrom….all because he’s a two way player (and not yet injured at the time of the preseason projections)? If he stays healthy enough to realize IDK, his 70th percentile projections, will he become the greatest fantasy points player ever?
I think I’m keeping Ohtani as that 6th keeper.

Jah
Jah
Reply to  Jah
1 year ago

8 starts max per week for SP’s. Elite SP’s score the most points. Unlimited starts on offense and within the two RP slots. Daily lineup changes.

LG Baseball
LG Baseball
1 year ago

Great article Grey! Way to be bold and love the analysis

Keeper league question:

With my last keeper spot would you keep Ketel or Bobby Witt Jr? Witt looks awesome and wondering whether to shoot for the upside or go with the safer Ketel.

Thanks,
LG

toneDEAF!
toneDEAF!
1 year ago

Grey! Thanks for your preseason rankings! Looking forward to another year subscribing!
I’m in a 12-team H2H custom scoring keeper league. Points are structured in a way pitchers are just as valuable as batters. Top 10 scorers last year- Biebs, Freeman, ozuna, Treat urner, Tatis, Abreu, Ramirez, Bauer, Darvish, Machado.

Who would you keep? Need 6:
Abreu 4th
Mondesi 11th
Harper 1st
Franmil 10th
Eloy 3rd
Maeda 11th
Giolito 16th
Bauer 4th
Darvish 5th
Glasnow 7th

Thanks GREY!

toneDEAF!
toneDEAF!
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Gracias!

Holala
Holala
1 year ago

Holà

Deep keeper league. Don’t want to deal with Lamet’s injury risk. Is Santander a good return? Gracias!

Josie Smith
Josie Smith
Reply to  Holala
1 year ago

Great as always Grey. Even with trade rumors would you want Story over Cole in a dynasty league. I also have DeGrom as a keeper.

omar
omar
1 year ago

6×5 (standard 5×5 + OPS) Weekly H2H league. Players drafted in 2021 can be kept for 2 yrs – thru 2022.

In this scenario, would you rather draft Trout or Bellinger?

The Great Knoche
Reply to  omar
1 year ago

Gimme Trout. 8 days a week.

Smitty
Reply to  The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Trout fell to me at #9 in the Beat the Donkey draft!

Rebar
Rebar
1 year ago

Grey – you have brainwashed your readers about pitching scmhohawks! We just had our RCL draft with Laura Holt, thank you laura! And nobody took any pitchers! Degrom and Garrett were still there in the 9th rd! I jest, but not by much.

Member Berries
Member Berries
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I was in this draft. Wild that everyone stayed away from pitching. Laura went RP heavy and little SB everywhere. I like my draft, gotta sagnof a bit though .

Bats:
WSmith, Walsh, Ketel, TAnderson, Bregman, Sano, Baez, Bellinger, KLewis, Joc, Robles, Adell, Franmil, Vaughn. Ohtani
Arms:
Bieber, SGray, Plesac, Urias, Means, DPrice, and Dev Williams, Leclerc, Montero, Bard

Grey, you see ZeroZeroZero on Amaxon?

Member Berries
Member Berries
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Zero^3 was great. Pleasant surprise

SP just sat there. Urias at 203. Means at 230.

I didnt have the stones to draft Bauer, who I thought would be the best SP since he’s the best cheater, so I played it safe with Bieber. Laura taking Bauer cut me

Reached for WSmith but no regerts!

Member Berries
Member Berries
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I started Suits because everyone said how great it was. Eh.

Prefer Newsroom if we are to compare witty banter.

Nothing’s impossible for Laura. You dont have enough fingers and toes to count out Laura

Jangles
Jangles
1 year ago

Nice work as always G! Any idea when top 100 keepers rankings will be deployed? Thanks!

Jangles
Jangles
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Sweet! The last time I looked I thought it was from last year still. Much obliged.!

Ryno
Ryno
1 year ago

Hey grey you the goat!! You get to keep one pitcher what guy had best value it’s a quality start league 14 team. Lance Lynn rd 7 joe musgrove td 15 drew or MacKenzie gore rd27. Thanks grey love reading your articles!

Tom
Tom
1 year ago

Cole went from an 8.7/K9 with Pitt. to a 12.4/k9 the next year with the cheating Astros. He’s one of the biggest cheaters in the game that we know of, he went from good to great in a blink of an eye, no thanks I’ll pass. When will MLB decide they’ve had enough with cheaters?

Matty
Matty
1 year ago

Hey Everyone-
Not sure if this is the best spot for this, but I happen to be awake early and saw I could get my comment nice and high on the list (I’m apparently never awake before Ante).
Is there any interest in an RCL that drafts east-coast weekday midday? It’s tough for me to jump into an evening draft but super easy to carve out midday time and figure there are other people who similarly blow off work.
I guess post up here and we’ll figure something out.

Matty
Matty
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Cool. Thanks.

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I know one guy who is always ready to draft midday any weekday.

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  VinWins
1 year ago

Also 6 am…. and midnight!

hbob
hbob
1 year ago

Hey Grey! I’m in a 6×6 (QS/OBP and SLG instead of AVG) 12-team league that keeps 10 guys each year, inherited Cole on my roster and have been looking to flip him for a bat but don’t want to sell too low. Was just offered:

Cole + third non-keeper round pick (~150 overall) for
Yelich + ninth non-keeper round pick (~220 overall)

Would you make that deal? Agree with your reasons to be wary of Cole, especially past this season, and am confident Yelich will bounce back but still a little anxious about pulling the trigger. (My other keepers are looking like Trout, Lindor, Olson, Muncy, Gray, Maeda, Carrasco, fwiw. Also, related question: In this format, would you keep Hoskins?) Thanks for the help!

Cram It
Cram It
Reply to  hbob
1 year ago

I would take Yelich and run.

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

Great job, detectives, lol. This might explain the owner in my league offering me Cole in every trade offer, after he was declared off limits way back in 2019.

LadyScorpio
LadyScorpio
1 year ago

Hi Grey!

Good article as always. I have Shane Bieber as 1 of my 4 keepers this year and he’s the ONLY SP that I chose to keep. He’s also listed high on draft boards. While I’m not expecting him to repeat his 2020 season, I am hoping that he won’t turn into Matthew Boyd either.

As for Gerrit Cole, he was once a prized prospect that was on a poorly managed team and once he was traded to the Astros, became a relevant pitcher in real life and fantasy. I hope that he’s able to navigate through some of the issues that you mentioned that he has. Would hate to see him go up in flames.

Joel
Joel
1 year ago

Hi Grey. Thanks for the article about this. I’m on the fence about keeping Heaney in a mixed auction league for $3, which should be decent value, but now I’m wondering if this could affect him (and the rest of the Angels SPs) too. Any thoughts? Thanks!

joeurso1
joeurso1
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Worried about Bundy too?

Denver90
Denver90
1 year ago

Very interesting article.
RCL 10 from the 12 hole.
Bellinger
Freeman
Xander
Woodruff
Gray
Conforto
Kmarte
Luzardo
Iglesias
Laureano
Franmil
Kebryan
Bassitt
Solak
DevWill
Donaldson
Polanco
Will smith p
A nola c
Pomeranz
Pearson
Fletcher
Sale
Thor
Berti
Good Pitching…meh hitting. Feels light on pop.

Denver90
Denver90
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Only enough to trot around the bases on HRs I guess.

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
1 year ago

Grey!!!!

Holy crap, great report!

a. Pinkman still hasn’t sent me Fletcher. Just sayin’. It’s all about me and my fantasy MLB team.

b. MLB quote of the day for March 9, 2021

1. Arky Vaughan, born March 9, 1912

‘I’d say he (Arky Vaughan) was as good a man at short as I ever saw. He could do it all and he was a good hitter. He could hit for power, and he could field for average. And could he ever fly around those bases.’

Rip Sewell in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum Yearbook (1989)

2. Bert Campaneris, born March 9, 1942

‘When Campaneris arrived in 1964, he looked like the future. He wasn’t actually the only good player on the team; we had (Rocky) Colavito and (Jim) Gentile and Ed Charles and Wayne Causey and John Wyatt. Dick Green, who would be a spear carrier for the Oakland dynasty, actually arrived before Campaneris. Even bad teams have four or five players who are as good as some of the players on the good teams. Campy was the one guy who mattered, the cornerstone. There was one game in 1966 that symbolized what he meant to the organization. Nobody else in the lineup got a hit; nobody else, as I recall, even reached base, but Campy went 4-for-4, stole several bases, and scored 4 runs. The A’s won the game, I think 4-2 or 4-3. There was a feeling of ‘hang-on’ Campy, we’ll get you some help.’

Bill James in The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (Free Press Publishing, 06/13/2003, Page 610)

3. Terry Mulholland, born March 9, 1963

‘Mulholland, known for having one of the best pickoff moves in the Majors, had an interesting, as well as a long, big-league career. A play he made with the Giants has been shown countless times on TV because he fielded a hard ground ball, and when the ball got stuck in the web of his glove, he tossed the glove to the first baseman to retire the runner. His no-hitter was against the Giants in 1990, and he faced the minimum of twenty-seven hitters. The only man to reach base did so on an error and then was retired on a double play. He is one of the few pitchers to beat every Major League team at least once. Among other things, he was noted for durability and versatility. With the Cubs in 1998, he sometimes would pitch in relief one day and as a starter the next. In 2004, when he was forty-one years old, his catcher was Pat Borders, also forty-one, making them the oldest battery in big-league history at the time.’

Author Gary Caruso in Marietta College Baseball: The Story of the ‘Etta Express (The History Press, 03/11/2012, Page 187)

4. Benito Santiago, born March 9, 1965

‘This guy (Benito Santiago) could be a pitcher — that’s how hard he throws. He cut down 23 of 62 base-stealers last season, and he’s at his best throwing from the kneeling position; throwing that way, he nailed 10 of 26 felons and picked off five runners at first. Santiago threw out Howard Johnson so impressively two seasons ago that HoJo said without shame, ‘I won’t try stealing on Santiago anymore.'”

Inside Sports, February 1991

5. Aaron Boone, born March 9, 1973

‘It’s always tough to hit a knuckleball. So when I saw (Tim) Wakefield (during the 2003 American League Championship Series) I was thinking about taking some pitches. Then I stepped out of the box, took a deep breath and said to myself, ‘You know what? You’ve been thinking too much kid. Just go and take a swing.’ That’s what I did on the first pitch I saw. Maybe I should do that before every pitch I see from now on.’

Aaron Boone

6. Willie Davis, died March 9, 2010

‘He (Willie Davis) was so talented. God really blessed him with some great tools—for any sport, really—speed, strength, agility—everything an athlete needs in order to make the big time.’

Former Dodger Shortstop Maury Wills in The Los Angeles Times (Keith Thursby, ‘Willie Davis dies at 69; former Dodger center fielder’, 03/10/2010)

c. Random Reggie Jackson quote of the day for March 9, 2021

‘The pitcher has the ball, and nothing happens until he lets go of it. So as the batter, I felt I had to fight for any bit of control I could get. I expected the umpire, the catcher, and the pitcher to wait on me. I wanted to get ready on my time.’

Cheers,
Ante

Smitty
Reply to  Ante GALIC
1 year ago

Remember watching the Dodgers as a kid and when Willie D. would hit a gapper my dad would say, “watch him run!” Seeing him turn on the jets, helmet flying off, and beating the throw to third for a triple was priceless. Thanks Ante!

Smitty
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

man was he fun to watch

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!!!

Thanks man. Waiting for pinkman.

Reggie was a part-time philosopher.

Cheers,
Ante