This feels like a limb that could snap at any moment. Is Frankie Montas a sleeper? Yes. Do I 100% trust him? No, my Trust% is less than 100. (Baseball Prospectus has Trust% abbreviated as TrustFall% and FanGraphs has TrustFall% but doesn’t include gravity, so people trust fall and then float about five inches off the ground. You can see TrustFall% graphs at Brooks Baseball too. Okay, stepping away from my Ted Talk about baseball stat acronyms…) Guess for my Trust% to be at 100, the sleeperitude of a player would tumble (unless there was no gravity–okay, really moving on now). Much like your great Aunt Gloria, who had her knee reconstructed, I’m going to recap. Last year, Frankie Montas was having a breakout year. Times were good. His friends and family threw him a ticker tape parade with torn-up lottery tickets. Montas was even asked to give a toast–Wait, I’m recapping an episode of Malcolm in the Middle with Frankie Muniz. Sorry. Montas was breaking out though:  9-2/2.63/1.11/103 in 96 IP. Best breakout since Benicio del Toro in Escape at Dannemora. But, much like the inmates at Dannemora, Montas was caught doing bad stuff, unlike del Toro, he wasn’t mumbling. He was, “(S)uspended for using Ostarine, a selective androgen receptor modulator used in bodybuilding to increase strength and mass in lean muscles. It is capable of stimulating androgen receptors, steroid hormone receptors and mimicking testosterone.” That’s exhausting to just read! Do compound elements need to also be compound words? Discuss amongst yourselves! Anyway, what can we expect from Frankie Montas for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Well, what we can expect from Frankie Montas in 2020 fantasy baseball is the pickle that could be sweet or sour, but that’s why there’s a buying opportunity. Now, if we’re to assume Montas merely started using the PEDs this year, which fostered his breakout, and, presumably, he’s off the good shizz, so he will backslide to being a terrible pitcher, then bleh. Not sure why this would be the assumption though. Andy Pettitte (How many effin T’s are in his name?) admitted to PEDs but only for a short time and people think of the rest of his career as possibly HOF-worthy. Nelson Cruz was busted for PEDs in the minor leagues, back in the early 1970s (I think), and he’s still hitting 40 homers a year like some kind of clock that keeps time with HRs and RBIs. So, Montas was busted? So what? He was a 100 MPH flamethrower for years. Back in 2016, he was passed around the halls of Razzball with Prospector Ralph saying Montas had a plus-plus fastball, then Prospect Mike came along and said a similar thing while threatening my life. Everyone loved Montas for years! Are you thinking he’s been doing PEDs for years and that’s why he’s always been a 100-MPH hurler? Well, no offense, but you’re dopey, not him. Frankie Montas broke out last year with his nasty stuff, not because he discovered his ‘nasty stuff,’ but because he discovered the last piece to his puzzle — control. PEDs are aiding control? C’mon. He’s a 9.5-10 K/9 with an on-average 97 MPH fastball and devastating slider (top 15 in the majors). He’s on the older side (will be 27 in March), but he still throws dazzlers, so who cares? Montas feels like a precarious limb, due to PEDs, but, for his price, he’s one of the best sleepers. For 2020, I’ll give Frankie Montas projections 13-8/3.45/1.14/176 in 162 IP with a chance for much more.

 
  1. Nitro says:
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    An interesting trade proposal…
    Team A gets Devers, G Torres and Erod
    Team B gets Trout, Berti, R McMahon, and Marco Gonzalez

    What do we think?

    • Snacks Zillion says:
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      Trout!!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Trout

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with others

  2. jeffjam says:
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    Mitch Keller?

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      11-10/3.82/1.23/187 in 169 IP with a chance for more.

      You’re Welcome.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      What about Mitch Keller?

  3. Snacks Zillion says:
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    I was offered Montas for J Villar. At first, I gave it no thought but with Villar in a new park not as HR friendly and the Marlins lack of aggression on the basepaths, I am thinking Villar is more of a 17hr, 25sb guy this year. What do you guys think in a vaccuum? 12 team h2h pts league. As always thanks. Looking forward to the rankings!!!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      Villiar

      • Snacks Zillion says:
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        Yea, even with less stolen bases and homers, Villar still has too much upside to give up. I took him in the 4th, might have reached a litttle chasing last years numbers.

        • Malicious Phenoms says:
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          I believe the Marlins will let him run. Why wouldn’t they. They need to create runs someway..

          • Snacks Zillion says:
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            Recently, they rank towards the bottom of the league in stolen bases/attempts but I hope they free Villar for sure.

            • Malicious Phenoms says:
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              No reason to have Villar if they aren’t gonna let him run.

              • Snacks Zillion says:
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                good point, thanks MP.

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Villar for me but closer in points

      • Snacks Zillion says:
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        Thanks DT, I agree.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with MP

      • Javier says:
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        Grey,
        Will you be posting rankings for the 2019 first year players?
        Thanks for everything you do here man. Good stuff.
        Javier in Chicago

  4. Cersy says:
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    Hi Grey,

    Great stuff here. He wasn’t on my radar at all but now he certainly is. Hidden gem!

    I might be able to get Bellinger and Story for Freeman, Baez and Machado. My last keeper would then become Darvish or Morton. Do you think that’s a no brainer?

    Offensive Cats in my h2h 12 team keeper are: runs hits, tbs, sbs, BA, OPS, RBIs, k’s. Pitching cats are: wins, ERA, WHIP, k:bb, k’s.

    I think that Story and Baez are very similar but I give the edge to Story since he has been more consistent. I do worry that Baez has another gear though. Bellinger is much younger than freeman but might not necessarily outperform him by much this season. I think he still will though. Machado’s stock is down but steamer ranks him 29th overall so they’re clearly expecting a bounce back.

    I do think Bellinger and story are 1st round picks in most drafts. Freeman is likely a 2nd Baez a 3rd and machado a 4th.

    If I make this deal keeper team becomes: Betts, Bellinger, story, laureano, buehler, Corbin, Darvish and Morton. If not then it’s Betts, Freeman, Baez, machado, laureano, buehler, Corbin and Darvish or Morton.

    Thanks,

    Cersy

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Bellinger and Story, no brainer

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with Donks

  5. LOLmets says:
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    Loving these sleepers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

  6. rollcatz1618 says:
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    Last piece of the puzzle was the split he added not his control…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gotcha

  7. Whatever says:
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    Hi Grey,

    Happy New Year! Hope all is well so far in 2020. :)

    For a 12 team mixed keeper using OBP and 350 cap I have an opportunity to give Bregman a long term contract:

    2yr for $16 per year
    3yr for $21 per year
    or more years for 5 more per year?

    this league is very active with trades so I think as long as I keep the salary reasonable I should be able to find a trade partner for him at end of the contract.

    Thanks!

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I think I’d go 3 years, you don’t want to take too much of the contract value away by going much longer.

      • Whatever says:
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        Thanks DT! Happy New Year to you as well.

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
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          No problem, Happy New Year!

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      With that high salary cap and Bregman being top 10 guy, I’d lock him in for 5 at $31.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with DT

      • Whatever says:
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        Thx Grey.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  8. Andrew says:
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    Request you do a sleeper or bounce back candidate on Lance McClure

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Troy McClure or Lance McCullers?

      • Donkey Teeth

        Donkey Teeth says:
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        You may remember him from such films as the Astros Trash Can Banging Scandal.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Co-starring Mike Fiers?

          • Donkey Teeth

            Donkey Teeth says:
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            Co-starring Mike Fiers featuring a Rosie the Riveter beard

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

  9. Lenny says:
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    Thank you. I traded for Montas in a keeper for pennies last season when you told us not to give up.

    Never give up!

    Received a trade offer. Dustin May or Luis Urias Mitch Keller in a keep forever.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      May

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Never give up!

      Urias or Keller or both?

      • Lenny says:
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        Both

        • Donkey Teeth

          Donkey Teeth says:
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          I’d still want May but it’s fair.

  10. papasmurf says:
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    I am actually planning to keep him as a keeper, which pretty much means I am betting he’d be a top 100 player.

    (Knowing my patented Smurfing ability to smurf the future, the rest of yall might wanna punt…)

    PS, Happy New Year Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year, papasmurf!

      And don’t smurf Montas, please

  11. Lenny says:
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    I’m keeping Montas. Got him cheap.

    Dustin May or Mitch Keller Luis Urias in a forever.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Are you saying Keller and Urias or Keller or Urias?

      • Lenny says:
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        Keller and urias. 2 for 1.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Keller side, but agree it’s fair

  12. Big Bopper says:
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    Dynasty lg Grisham O’Neill Marsh or Jahmai position not an issue? Thx

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Is the question just which one of the four? If so, Grisham for me.

      • Big Bopper says:
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        Yes in a dynasty lg which one would you rather have

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with DT

  13. Seddon death says:
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    Keeper question
    Entering year 3 of 5 before redraft
    Basic CBS lineup
    Keep 12
    So far
    Olson, Baez, bregman, rendon, semien, bellinger, Harper, s. marte, gallo, bieber, Corbin

    One more out of
    h. Dozier, urshela, k. Davis, ryu, gray

    Thanks in advance

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ryu

  14. FrankGrimes says:
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    Points league… Can Keep one of these:
    Berrios Noah Giolito wheeler castillo

    And one rookie from last season:
    Luzardo Paddack Soroka

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      I’d want Giolito and Paddack

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Ya I’m leaning that way. I really like Berrios this year tho.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Paddack, Giolito

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Grimey!

      • Crazy J says:
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        NOT Wheeler! :p

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        Why was L’Immortale not recognized at the globes last night??

        Why have you not used your Hollywood contacts to get us a copy yet lol

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That is a national disgrace! I figured you were the contact and you’d have it by now…

  15. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Who would you rather have Mazara or Jesse Winker?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      Mazara for me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agree with Donkey

  16. Crazy J says:
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    Who doesn’t love 27 in fantasy sports? So…. what IS his expected price? Can’t believe you are going to have full rankings going soon. *swoon*

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Next Monday for rankings!

  17. nightpandas says:
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    Hey there January Grey, good to see you….hope you had a great holiday season! Looking forward to rankings….

    Olson and Gore or Eloy in an obp keeper?

    • Donkey Teeth

      Donkey Teeth says:
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      January Donkey here.

      Eloy for me.

    • c says:
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      Terrence or McKenzie?

      For me, it’s the Olson side as in an OBP league, his value is high and I’m not super sold on Eloy’s OBP abilities. And if it’s McKenzie, I know TNSSASPP, but his upside is a legit ace.

      But DT is the professional

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Olson

  18. Art says:
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    Okay, sleeper/keeper question…

    I can keep 5 of the following in an auction draft ($260) league:

    Strasburg ($20)
    K. Marte ($6)
    Bichette ($6)
    Soroka ($6)
    Woodruff ($6)
    Montas ($6)

    I also have Dozier, F. Reyes, J. Urias, and Aquino available for $6 apiece.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Not Montas

  19. Harley Earl says:
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    Yawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwn.

    Oh, hello there. I just woke up from a nap. Ya see, all these Sleepers are starting to put me to sleep! Can we move on to something else already, like preseason rankings, position rankings or perhaps this year’s Schmohawks? Haha!!!

    Keep up the good work Grey. It’s January and I miss baseball. Glad to have you here to read daily! But man I’m getting itchy/scratchy and we’ve still got 12 weeks before Opening Day. Ugh!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, rankings start next Monday!

      • Harley Earl says:
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        Great!!!

        Looking forward to them!!!

  20. Josh says:
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    Love me some Montas. Who do you like more as a fantasy keeper going forward, Lux or Bichette. Standard 5×5 H2H. I like Lux’s power profile a bit more, but everything about Bichette screams future batting champ. I have the choice in a trade offer of one.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bichette

  21. Son

    Son says:
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    Grey! First time, long time.

    I think a big factor for Frankie’s breakout last season was the incorporation of a third pitch, the splitter. PEDs ain’t got nothing to do with that either!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hell yeah, Son!

Comments are closed.