Or as I like to call it FML SMDH.  That’s so pithy it should be a widely used internet acronym.  Since Al Gore invented the internet as a means of discovering far-off acronyms, Al would love FML SMDH, if he wasn’t too busy ridding CVSs everywhere of aerosol cans.  “Ma’am, our planet is under attack, I need your can of Aqua Net.”  That’s Al at a CVS near you.  So, in the past, I’ve given you snake draft fantasy baseball strategy posts under the acronym of PEDS, but I just found out that acronym was co-opted by some unseemly business.  That you let me carry on for 7 years calling it PEDS, I’m not sure I can ever forgive you.  *less than a second later*  Okay, I accept your apology.  Fantasy baseball strategies are as old as the earth, if the earth were ten or so years old.  There’s a LIMA Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) by Ron Shandler.  There was a ZIMA Plan by Matthew Berry; it involved a lot of stumbling around, groping and the hiccups. There’s been a Punt One Category draft strategy.  There’s been a Punt Two Categories draft strategy, which was conceived by a leaguemate of Punt One Category who just couldn’t stand being upstaged, and there’s the Forget When Your Draft Is So Your Team Is Autodrafted strategy. I love when my leaguemates use that one.  Then there’s my fantasy baseball snake draft strategy, Fantasy Master Lothario’s Strategic Method of Domination Henceforth or FML SMDH. (You might even want to use this strategy for our Razzball leagues.  Join now.  Thank you.)

FML SMDH has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues.  No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games, but FML SMDH puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft.  Actually, this plan is foolproof and you should ignore the previous sentence that said no plan is foolproof.  No sentence is foolproof, that’s more accurate.  Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks.

No Kershaw.  No F-Her.  No Scherzer.  You abstain!  They’re fantastic.  I love them all.  I’d eat sushi off their nipples.  I’d watch Better Call Saul with them while sandwiched between your chatty mom and even-more-chatty aunt, and I hate when people talk while I’m watching TV.  That’s how much I like them!  These starters give you the value of a 1st or 2nd rounder.  They do.  I said it.  Sue me (for my Gregg Jefferies rookie cards)!  The problem is the loss of one of your 1st two hitters is really difficult to bounce back from.  You, son, are putting yourself in a hole.  A hole?  Yes, you are.  The absence of Goldschmidt or McCutchen or who(m)ever is too great.  Could you win drafting a pitcher in the 1st two rounds?  Sure, anything can happen.  I mean, at one time, some very smart people thought Sarah Palin was actually a decent idea to be a heartbeat from the presidency.  That doesn’t mean you want to stack the deck against yourself.  If you take a pitcher with the first two picks, you need to be right on your other top hitters.  It’s way too risky.  Go hitters early.

2. Never take a top-tier closer.

This is a tough one for some people.  I’m going to be you for a brief moment.  Me as you, “Hey, everyone’s starting to take closers in the fifth round.  There goes Kimbrel, Kenley, Aroldis… Wait, I have to take a closer with my next pick, too!  And where are my pants?!  For the Lord’s sake, why don’t I have pants on?!”  See what happened there?  You done got swept up.  You did.  You got swept up in a closer run.  Ignore everyone who takes closers. You don’t need a top tier one.  Stick to your own game plan.  Grab some schmohawks later that will get saves because, as we all know, SAGNOF.

3. When deep into a position, take a flyer on upside.

Nobody in the history of fantasy baseball has ever won a league by playing it safe in the late rounds.  In 1995, I tried drafting Mike Greenwell as my fifth outfielder; just didn’t work.  A darn fine year by Klesko wasted!  You play it safe in the early rounds.  You take solid contributors early.  You take flyers late.  You’re looking at either Jed Lowrie or Jose Ramirez, who do you choose?  Steven Souza or Torii Hunter?  Watching the USFL 30 for 30 again while wearing your Donald Trump wig or watching something new that you’ve heard good things about?  You get the picture.  Embrace the unknown late.

4. When in doubt, draft for OBP and K/9.

I’m not saying in the first round.  Or the 2nd.  Or 12th (unless you’re in a 45-team league).  I’m saying when you get in the final rounds of the draft this is your determining factors for hitters and pitchers.  Easier said than done, right?  Actually, no, it is easy.  It’s not like you need a photographic memory of who has a higher OBP and a better K/9.  I know you barely remember the sentence you just read.  I’m not telling you to know these rates off the top of your medulla oblongata.  All I’m saying is there’s more than seven seconds between your picks, so simply look up which of the two pitchers you’re choosing between has a higher K/9 or which of the two hitters has a better OBP.  It’s just boiling guys down to their absolute simplest form.  If a hitter has a better OBP, then, when you’re in the 22nd round, at least you’re getting a guy that should get on base more, which should help runs, RBIs and average.  As for pitchers, at least you’re getting someone that can strikeout hitters, which should help ERA, WHIP and Ks.

5. Draft your team.

This is the most important rule.  This rule is like the number one rule in meditation:  You have to find your breath.  Ask Tina Turner, she knows.  This rule isn’t simply a literal statement.  I’m not saying don’t hire someone off Craigslist because you need to draft your team.  It’s a metaphysical credo that must be followed.  You must draft guys you want.  Once the draft is over, no one cares where you drafted anyone.  Sure, you might take a bit of guff for taking someone a few rounds before everyone else would’ve drafted them.  Well, tell those people, “Keep your guff, you guffers!”  No one is going to pat you on the back in October and say, “You came in fourth, but I sure loved how you got Arenado in the 7th round.”  You’re about to curl up in the basement of your mother’s house for the next six months with your fantasy team, draft guys you want.  If you think you can wait an extra round on someone, then go for it, but if you really want to reach for someone, don’t worry about it.  You need to draft your team, and not the team you think your leaguemates would draft.  For two years in a row, my Razzball commenter league team (Sign up now!) has appeared near the bottom of the post-draft auto-simulated rankings that are done by ESPN.  One year I won the league, the next year I came in 2nd.  It didn’t matter that ESPN or anyone hated my team post-draft.  All that mattered was I drafted the team I wanted.  Now find your breath, young prematurely balding man, and embrace FML SMDH.

 
  1. Pistol Pete says:
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    Another perfectly timed article as the day winds down here in Thailand. How much/if at all would you change this for a head-to-head league?

    • Pistol Pete says:
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      @Pistol Pete: Also, this league counts holds, and there’s no CI, MI, or 4th & 5th OF. Add in 7 BE spots and my religious adherence to the no bench hitters policy and it becomes kind of pitcher heavy. I guess I’m asking more about when you would draft your first SP, Closer, and Holds guy. definitely still hitters early, right?

      • CMUTIMMAH says:
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        @Pistol Pete: I’m in a head to head… I have taken the strategy to punt either saves or holds, allowing me to hold more SPs. If you have a Wade Davis and Tyler Clippard, you’ll get holds, but you’ll also get occasional wins and Ks on parr with a late round SP.

        I’m annually in the top 3 in the regular season using this strategy, and in the pitching category power rankings, I’m always top 3.

        • JR says:
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          @CMUTIMMAH: I
          I recommend not punting since I suspect a lot of people in the league will neglect holds. Streaming holds against a weak holds player is a very viable option. And if one of your streamers turns out to be a strong guy he can pick up wins/saves for you later on. The decline in WHIP/ERA, having a good K/9 and the possibility for wins/saves while also getting holds makes some of those guys a really good option to “hold” on to

          • AJ says:
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            @JR: I’d punt Ks and Wins, draft a ton of high K/9 RP (Ken Giles types) and win Saves, Holds, ERA and WHIP every single week with practically no investment in pitching.

            • Pistol Pete says:
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              @AJ: In the past, I’ve always tried to have one Clippard type, one decent closer and SAGNOF/HAGNOF the rest, which got fairly mixed results. The league’s transaction number is capped at 4 per week, so streaming helps but only to an extent. Thanks for the ideas everybody!

    • Give me back my son! says:
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      hey pistol youre not the only razzballian in se asia. im in vietnam and i thought i was the only one refreshing the home page waiting for the rankings posts from the mustachioed one. sup grey.

      • Pistol Pete says:
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        @Give me back my son!: Glad to not be the only one doing mock drafts at odd hours of the day and wearing out the refresh button

      • Pistol Pete says:
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        @Grey: Thanks!

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!

    Nice 5-step program to destiny. Really like step 5 the best.

    Trade you my 1990 Leaf Larry Walker rookie card for your Gregg Jefferies rookie card. Have given up ALL hope that Walker will get into the hall even though he deserves it more than who have made it already.

    Cheers,
    Ante

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Yes, I do. The gum was more than worth it!

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I always loved opening up the bubblegum after it was in there for at least 3 years

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            @Grey: Ha! It could have 30 years old, it was still the best thing in town late 60s / early 70s! That and Gilligan’s Island, followed by The Monkees, The Beverly Hillbillies and Hogan’s Heroes!

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha, awesome… Don’t forget Too Close for Comfort

          • Pistol Pete says:
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            @Grey: Opened up a pack I bought at a flea market a few years back and promptly tossed the gum in my mouth and it immediately crumbled and turned to dust.

  3. Big Money Matt says:
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    I have found that in non-razzball leagues you can take a top closer or even two where you otherwise would be drafting someone like samardzija and still get him later in plus the other guys you want to draft like Alex Wood and Carrasco in the spots where you normally would be thinking about drafting your first closer. How do you feel about the above scenario?

    • rotisseriejedi says:
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      @Big Money Matt: ….until you find yourself drafting in a serious league around April 5, with several managers who keep up with several fantasy sites, and sleeper posts are plastered all over creation, and, oh yeah, Wood and Carrasco’s ADPs have shot up ridiculously! Unless I’m drafting in a public league, I do not assume I’m drafting against dumb 7th graders, because just as soon as I do, Carrasco will be nabbed exactly two picks after my dumb @$$ takes Kimbrel.

      You can get a new closer in May after Mejia (3.65/1.48) soils the bed. You’re not getting another Carrasco.

      • The Vaporizers says:
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        @rotisseriejedi:

        Really? Who drafted Carrasco last year?

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @Big Money Matt: Dont like it…Agreed in some leagues you can still get carrasco and wood but if i felt i could get them later i would grab a bat instead of a closer..

  4. Vitruvius says:
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    Hey Grey!

    Need some help with my keepers. In a 12 man 7×7 league with OBP and BAA with 6 keepers. My options are Abreu, Altuve, Seager, Gomez, Cespedes, Rizzo, G.Polanco, and Price. 21 roster spots, including 5 bench spots. Thanks for the help!

    • JR says:
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      @Vitruvius: Rizzo, altuve and Abreu for sure.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Vitruvius: Abreu, Altuve, Rizzo, Price, Gomez

  5. BitchesBeShoppach says:
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    If I’m in a keeper league where you keep three players and none of my keepers are pitchers, should I draft a pitcher with my first pick, since it’s pretty much my fourth pick? I have strong keepers in trout cutch and goldschmidt.

    • kingforaday151 says:
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      @BitchesBeShoppach: Standard 5×5? Top level starters would likely be kept, I would take another hitter with your 1st pick and pick up a few starters with my 6-10 picks.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @BitchesBeShoppach: I wouldnt touch a pitcher till around the8th or 9th round…things are subject to change depending how the draft is going but i would go offense as long as there are plenty of pitching options available

      • BitchesBeShoppach says:
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        My bad, 12 teams. Off the top of my head I know Kershaw, Felix, scherzer, sale, wainwright, darvish and Harvey are being kept by other teams, if that helps. I also don’t have a 4,6,7 or 8th round picks. Had to throw them into trades to get goldschmidt and cutch I’m just struggling to figure out when I should draft my first sp

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @BitchesBeShoppach: You need a SP before the 9th round pick, so you have to take one in the fifth

          • BitchesBeShoppach says:
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            Thanks grey!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              No problem

  6. Prettay, Prettay, Prettaaay, Prettay Good says:
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    Grey,

    Perfect timing for this article, as I have recently been thinking about how keeper strategy could influence your auction/draft. Do you keep the upside guys you really want (ala point # 5 from your article) or do you go with low floor guys and see what value drops to you in the auction?

    Side note: Last year I kept Gyorko at $9 and am still lamenting this unfortunate upside choice.

    This year my keepers come down to this in a 5×5 H2H league:

    Ian Desmond $13
    Josh Donaldson $9
    Jake Arrieta $4
    Gregory Polanco $3
    Kolton Wong $9 (Please don’t be Gyorko Part II)

    and the choice…

    Justin Morneau at $2
    OR
    Marcus Stroman at $4

    Obviously Morneau is as boring as eating oatmeal sans brown sugar while watching Seabiscuit on cable. But, hey, at least you know what you are getting: something nutritious and wholesome for the whole family.

    Meanwhile, Stroman’s upside is sexier than Kate Upton before she was making the video game commercials, but just after the selfies leaked.

    Philosophically, where do you land on this one?

    • CMUTIMMAH says:
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      @Prettay, Prettay, Prettaaay, Prettay Good: I believe the article tells you exactly what to do in this situation…

      Do you hit on the young chick at the bar with the hide-a-rack the looks like she might have a tight body under her hoodie, or do you re-tap the old lady always sitting in the same stool night after night?
      It depends on preference. Sure, you old lady probably isn’t going to cost you much money, and you know exactly what you’re getting, but what about that hide-a-rack? I wonder what kind of panties… er… underpants she’s wearing? Maybe it’s something cool you’ve never heard of! The same hum drum night, or a chance at something you’ve never heard of! The choice is clear. Vote for Donnely.

  7. fitz says:
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    Remember last year when Grey had Mauer ranked so low and people flipped out and other sites had him ranked as a first rounder? Now he’s going undrafted in a lot of leagues.

    Good times.

    • Fungazi says:
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      @fitz: His overvalue came from the C position. He doesn’t have that this year.

      • CMUTIMMAH says:
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        @Fungazi: I’ve never been in love with Mauer. I never saw this high ceiling that everyone else did. But, last year, the catcher position was a void at the time of the draft. Options were tight. Mauer was supposed to be healthy at 1B, and experts emailed endlessly expecting (alliteration?) his bat to improve at least somewhat…

        Turns out, he was what Grey (and I) thought he was. Which is why we left him on the hook…

        As for catchers this year, I’m smitten with the idea of getting Mesoraco later than average draft position. I’m having dreams that he just keeps sliding down the draft board to my selection, leading to hours of rosterbation. Then I wake up, change the soiled sheets, and go on with my day.

        • danny almonte says:
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          @CMUTIMMAH: i think people will overpay for mesoraco after his ‘breakout’. i’d pass personally.

        • Swaggerjackers says:
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          @CMUTIMMAH: I’m hoping Grandal falls far enough to be draftable.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @CMUTIMMAH: mesoraco will NOT be gotten at value.

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @goodfold2: and i loved mesoraco last year, had him in about 80% of leagues i drafted (and at least 1 that i inherited)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @fitz: Yeah, seemed pretty obvious last year too

  8. Sideshow says:
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    How do u currently see the closer situation in Toronto? Is taking Sanchez best play in deep league bc he would have value as a starter also?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Sideshow: It’s Sanchez and/or Cecil right now for me, I still think they should sign K Rod or Soriano.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sideshow: Agree with Smokey on K-Rod or Soriano.. I think one still ends up there… Right now, it’s Cecil’s job to lose

  9. Jay says:
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    League going to 6×6…offense added K’s and pitching added losses with QS replacing wins. Thoughts on any changes to valuation or draft strategy. Do low K guys like Altuve, Brantley, etc. get that much of a bump?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Jay: Math says yes. Those low avg/high K guys are now hurting you in two categories.

    • PK says:
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      @Jay: I’m so confused as to why a league would replace Wins with Quality Starts, and then add in Losses, of all things. So weird.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jay: Agree with others…. Adding losses negates the loss of Wins

  10. Cram It says:
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    In the rankings section, I remember seeing something about JB’s top 100 SP to come. But it’s not there anymore. Is he still doing baseball? Will he be doing his Pitcher Profiles? Those were aweshizzsome.

    • @Cram It: Agreed. Is he going out on top with his Kluber call?

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
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        @Wake Up: Agreed as well. Dropping the mic from way up there could cause permanent damage to said microphone.

        • @MattTruss: Ha! JB would apologize to the floor…place a bandaid on the Mic…while icing it…and simultaneously take Altuve out of the baby Bjorn and gently place him in his hi chair…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Wake Up: Ha. Spot on.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @Cram It: Has he been banging my wife? …we have questions!!

      • Cram It says:
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        @JeF With 1 F: Oh damn, that WAS your wife?! I thought JB was joking about that.

        • JeF With 1 F says:
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          @Cram It: SON OF A BITCH!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: Not sure if he’s doing a top 100 SPs… He’s still doing the profiles as far as I know… I’m gonna be on the basketball podcast tomorrow, so will ask him then…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cram It: He just told me he’s doing both profiles in-season and top 100… He hopes to have the top 100 soon…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Grey: Very cool. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  11. J-Bird says:
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    Is the Razzball contingent doing NFBC draft champion leagues this year? Would like to beat up on Gamble a bit more…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @J-Bird: Rudy has been saying yes

  12. Fireball Feliz says:
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    Josh Hamilton believes the Earth is only 10 years old. ” I dun reed it in da Bible Grey!” And that’s me quoting Hambone

      • Fireball Feliz says:
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        @Grey: Ha!

  13. Nick says:
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    Grey, is this not the most studly team you have ever laid your eyes on? Any feedback?

    C. M. Zunino
    1B. J. Abreu
    2B. K. Wong
    3B. N. Arenado
    SS. I. Desmond
    MI. J. Baez
    CI. T. Frazier
    OF. A. Jones
    OF. B. Harper
    OF. J. Heyward
    OF. M. Betts
    OF. Y. Tomas
    UTL. J. Segura
    P. S. Grey
    P. G. Cole
    P. J. Arrieta
    P. C. Carrasco
    P. Z. Wheeler
    P. M. Stroman
    P. D. Storen
    P. M. Pineda
    P. M. Fiers
    P. M. Shoemaker
    P. T. Clippard
    P. B. Parnell

    • Cram It says:
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      @Nick: Depends. Real draft or mock?

      • Nick says:
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        @Cram It:
        It was a mock. Feels like I took to many pitchers. But at the same time, that lineup…..

        • Cram It says:
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          @Nick: *shrugs* mock. I’m sure everyone was not on autodraft and a skilled fantasy baseballer. But yeah, too many SP’s. Try to get 3 closers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Nick: Looks great if it’s a 12 team or deeper team

      • Nick says:
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        @Grey:

        Any glaring holes or something you don’t see that you would be wanting?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Nick: Nope, the team looks great

    • Joe says:
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      @Nick: Not sure its even remotely realistic to draft Abreu, Adam Jones, Ian Desmond, and Bryce Harper in the first 4 rounds unless it is league with 8 or less teams. Abreu and Jones are first rounders and Harper and Desmond are likely 2nd/3rd rounders.

      • Nick says:
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        @Joe:

        You are probably right. But this is my second yr in fantasy baseball and I am in about 5 leagues with varying difficulty. Not totally outrageous to think in a public 10 team ESPN league that you couldn’t get something close to this. I’m doing everything from that league to a 16team auction to an RCL league. So we’ll see how it all pans out.

  14. jack says:
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    Great article. I’m in a 10 team 6×5 (with errors and OBP) each category (i.e. not points) h2h league. Any changes in strategy above or additional advice for something like that?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @jack: Thanks! You should punt pitching to until around the 7th or 8th round

      • jack says:
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        @Grey: Will punting pitching until 7-8th round automatically put into a streaming strategy during the season?

        I was thinking about punting SB’s and/or Saves. Would you recommend punting either or both in my type of league?

        Thanks for all of your help and tools over the years. Your site makes fantasy baseball even more fun to play.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem… I wouldn’t punt anything entirely… You can not draft heavy on saves and speed though… Yeah, you’ll need to stream a little

  15. J-FOH says:
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    Hope, optimism, having it all figured out. It must be getting close to the draft days of spring. Enjoy this time like a child excited for the first day of school because this year its going to be different. You tell yourself they won’t make fun of your star trek lunchbox because star wars was so last year. They won’t laugh at my hunchback because I grew an inch and a half and your mom says you can barely notice it. The stutter you had last year is gone as long as you don’t have to speak more than 5 words in a ra ra ra row. Then, like school, comes week three when you are in the fetal position on the floor and your mom/grey is consoling with words like he’ll come around, who could of seen this, and Tommy John is just giving kick backs to dr. Freeze. The older we get the more life never really changed. . .. …

    • JeF With 1 F says:
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      @J-FOH: You were sounding real positive there for a minute…i thought someone hacked your account…by the end though you were coming around.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @J-FOH: Agree with F, you almost hid the bitterness for a second

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: there is always bitterness you optimistic fools.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Hehe

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: and that was not autobiographical

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              is it ever?

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Grey: ok maybe the hunch and the stutter. But I never had a star trek lunch box. Always star wars

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  I’ve never seen one episode of Star Trek

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: where is jay wrong right now

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      In his newest post that he’s holding warm for you

                  • J-FOH says:
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                    @Grey: oh yeah because I’m writing RCL’s this year…now with more hate

                  • Happy Vegans says:
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                    @Grey: You’ve never seen Capt. Kirk kicking Klingon from one morality tale to the other? Oh Em Gee, Grey-san.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nope, never… Never seen Grease either… Badges of honor…

              • Happy Vegans says:
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                @Grey: Good for you, Grey. Unfortunately for me, I’m more GI/GO when it comes to that kind of stuff.

            • JeF With 1 F says:
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              @J-FOH: That was obvious when the first word was Hope

  16. Justin says:
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    I am in a 10 man 5 player keeper 7×7 H2H league. Only 1 Util with the normal positions and 5 sps and 2 rps. There are no penalties for keeping certain players as it relates to draft picks. Stats are R,H, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OBP, W, K, QS, ERA, WHIP, SV, K9. I have 4 great keepers in Trout, Cutch, Goldy, and Scherzer. The 5th not so much. My choices are Chapman, Lucroy (I know you don’t like him), C. Davis and Calhoun. Who do you keep?

  17. Natty Boh says:
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    I always love the Gregg Jeffries rookie card references. I remember being about 8 years old hoarding them at baseball card shows thinking I was really going to have something. BTW, I have some Kevin Maas and Brien Taylor rookies I’d like to sell you too…

  18. Ryan says:
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    Love these articles. They mislead so many of my competitors…

    • Baezaworldseries says:
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      @Ryan: Join an RCL.

  19. Jon says:
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    I have a strong team in my keeper league (10 teams, 18 keepers), and I’m trying to decide on my last keeper. Here’s what I have:

    C
    1B Goldy
    2B Kipnis
    3B Donaldson
    SS Desmond
    MI Tulo
    CI Frazier
    OF Stanton
    OF Jones
    OF Heyward
    OF Betts
    DH Arenado
    Bench – Polanco

    SP Zimmermann
    SP Harvey
    SP Shoemaker
    SP Stroman
    SP Gausman

    For my last keeper, I could go with a catcher in Gomes, another bench bat in Hosmer, a closer in Cody Allen, or a 6th SP like McHugh, Keuchel, Cashner or Bailey. I’m leaning Hosmer, but I’m also exploring a trade before the keeper deadline (March 1) because I’d prefer not to keep too many guys on my bench. Should I go with a C, SP, or RP instead?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Gomes

  20. Jeff P says:
    (link)

    I don’t get the hate for elite closers. They help you in 4 categories, just like elite starters and are generally available later/cheaper.

    I was in two Yahoo auction leagues last year. Won one with Kimbrel, Chapman (who was even injured for a month and a half) and Jensen as my closers (ok, Rizzo and Abreu helped, but my two most expensive hitters were Wright and Myers, oh and a $27 Jose Fernandez).
    The other league was won in a landslide by a team that had Chapman, Rosenthal, and Holland.

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: every league is different and you are talking auction h2h.

      • Jeff P says:
        (link)

        @J-FOH: No, auction 5×5 roto.

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: they most likely werent won because of the closers…its just a position where there are always options that become available throughout the season…also in order to draft a top closer you will have to sacrifice drafting a good bat which is harder to find than closers during the season.

    • zeus says:
      (link)

      @Jeff P: depends on the league. If your league has a low innings cap then closers will help you ratios more than a standard league where you stream two start pitchers.

  21. the swinging says:
    (link)

    Against shitty competition I go for a closer earlier and may even snag a top one if I can do it in the 7th ish round. I then wait til around pick 170 for my next closer.

    If I’m gona dominate the draft anyway, why not be complete with closers also? Y let the schmohawks have me notched at closer? I don’t need to be wayyy better in the other categories, just better.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @the swinging: You can get elite closers in the 200s

  22. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Im keeping goldy, harper, marte, and rusney in my 12 team, 5×5.

    Unfortunately, abreu, encarnacion, stanton, trout, rizzo, rendon, desmond, and donaldson are all being kept. We only have 10 offensive slots. Im pretty much set in my outfield.

    I feel like I should go after someone in the “first round” because Im saving so much $ with my keepers, but the guys (listed above) are taken. Im going after Arenado… but who should I target in the first round? Im not a fan of the older guys, as they have shown that they are likely to be injured at some point in the season. Thanks, grey!

  23. Mike says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey,

    So I joined up with this already established big money keeper league and participated in a 4 team expansion snake draft where we drafted potential keepers for this upcoming year.

    It’s a Standard Yahoo League. $280 Auction Budget and 14 teams.

    I need to submit keepers this week. Can you let me know your opinion on which guys I should keep? I can keep 6 of the 7 listed below (or less if you think some aren’t worth keeping). Their prices for this year are in brackets and next year they go up $3.

    Scherzer $30
    Carrasco $10
    Zak Wheeler $7
    Wood $5
    Ervin Santana $1

    Ozuna $2
    AJ Pollock $1

    Thanks!!

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Mike: I would lose Scherzer and Santana…i think youd be fine starting your staff with wheeler, carrasco and wood..and can save the money on scherzer

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Mike: What F said

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Mike: What Grey said

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        What F said

        • JeF With 1 F says:
          (link)

          @Grey: What she said?

          • Mike says:
            (link)

            Thanks gentlemen!

            I can see how a $30 Scherzer might be pricey, but you don’t think it’s worth a shot to have a $1 Ervin Santana in a 14 team league?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Worth it to draft him at that price, sure

  24. hoog says:
    (link)

    In a 12 team h2h keeper league, no mi or ci. I have cano for up to 3 years. Could trade for betts for up to 5 years. Would you consider cano for betts, and if so, what else would you want with him for cano?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @hoog: I’d keep Cano

  25. Ghost ride the whip says:
    (link)

    Grey, great stuff. This is my first full offseason with razzball, ready to crush the competition armed with all the knowledge from you guys. I need to keep 6 in a 6×6 OPS league. Let me know if you think how I’ve ranked them is the way to go:
    1. Adam jones
    2. Rizzo
    3. Desmond
    4. Dickerson
    5. Kemp
    6. Fielder
    I also have yasmany, polanco and jd mart. I really am trying to move some of these other pieces for higher draft picks. What is fair draft pick comp for someone like polanco (who I’m being asked about). Do you guys do some type of draft pick valuation? Thanks again for the great advice!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! That order looks right… You should get as high a pick as you can… And join an RCL league!

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: In that order?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, yup!

  26. Ralph Boccella says:
    (link)

    12 team 6×6 keeper league with K/BB and OBP. I can keep 5

    Scherzer at 4

    Springer, Soler, Mesoraco, Dozier, Degrom, Cole at 11-14

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Not Devin and DeGrom

      • Ralph Boccella says:
        (link)

        Thanks! What if Bryant were in the 11-14 mix, instead of Dozier. I could keep him for 3 years and he’d always be a huge value pick

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I could see switching the two

  27. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Hey Nick The Dick…i just joined your RCL…you weren’t lying about your 5 friends huh

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! *snap*

    • nick the dick says:
      (link)

      @JeF With 1 F: Zing! I believe I said I had 9 friends as why I have a 10 team league I do. Hadn’t tried to fill this RCL with my friends. Did you not see the parameters of this league? It was supposed to be happily married owners only.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Snap back, haha

        • nick the dick says:
          (link)

          @Grey: snap backs are in nowadays, fitteds are only for actual baseball players

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            You have to do the bend over and then stand upright quickly for the full motion

  28. JeF With 1 F says:
    (link)

    Good thing the divorce is already in the works…im going to be drafting five nights in a row

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA! Don’t let her attorney find out… Have you moved out?

      • JeF With 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Im still there…figuring out the money…fun times

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Crap… Now’s the time when you figure out how to open an offshore account. *wink, wink*

          • JeF With 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: ha ha

  29. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Your ESPN article seems to have raised quite the kerfuffle, Albright.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Was just speaking the truth… They outsource projections and then I doubt they actually rank

      • Nick says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Grey does this every year. I don’t get the uproar. God forbid any other writers should have a sense of humor. I should probably admit that I don’t know what uproar there actually is.

      • SteveNZ says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Where’s this kerfuffle?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I ate mine already, sorry

        • Adult Onset Dia Bit Us says:
          (link)

          @SteveNZ: yeah, what ker… that word.

    • MattTruss

      MattTruss says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: Man, I really need to work kerfuffle into more conversations.

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @MattTruss: hey pull your panties out of your kerfuffle

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          My girl’s kerfuffle is the best, she adds in cinnamon.

          • J-FOH says:
            (link)

            @Grey: the maid kerfuffle and folded my laundry

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              The scientific term for bellybutton lint is kerfuffle

              • J-FOH says:
                (link)

                @Grey: kerfuffle? Ghazuntite!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Thanks, stupid allergies

    • SteveNZ says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: Where be this kerfuffle? I’m out of the loop.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @SteveNZ:

        Oh it’s quite the foofaraw.

        On the radio. Yes there are fantasy baseball alarums and excursions on the radio. What an age we live in.

        • SteveNZ says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: For the love of Mike. I look forward to seeing a strongly-worded letter to the editor somewhere.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Steve longs for the “What the kerfuffle?”

            • SteveNZ says:
              (link)

              @Grey: People are so stupid. I spend a bit of time hanging out in a golf equipment forum and people there argue about which brand of golf clubs is best. Of course it’s the brand that they (or their favourite player) uses. But they argue about it like they’re arguing about sports teams and trade insults accordingly. Effin’ fools.

              The internet has not all been for the good.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                That’s you under the username, Tiger’s Wood?!

              • Adult Onset Dia Bit Us says:
                (link)

                @SteveNZ: what did you think was gonna happen in a golf forum?

      • MattTruss

        MattTruss says:
        (link)

        @SteveNZ: Just some kerfuffled feathers I think

    • Adam says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: where do I find out more about the kerfuffle?

  30. Fireball Feliz says:
    (link)

    So A Roid issues a HAND WRITTEN letter of apology! Hand written… we’re not worthy! we’re not worthy! All is forgiven, even from us Rangers fans

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! That he wrote on the back of a CVS receipt

    • JeF With 1 F says:
      (link)

      @Fireball Feliz: and his signature was stamped on the paper

      • Fireball Feliz says:
        (link)

        @JeF With 1 F: I can imagine his pen touching the paper then thinking to himself ” wait! I only sign autographs if I’m getting paiiiiiiid”. And that’s me quoting A Roids ego

  31. The Lurve Guru says:
    (link)

    14 team, $260 auction, keep 10 players, +$4 inflation per year no limits on years.

    $5 Toddfather or $21 J-Zimm

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Frazier

  32. Kevin says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    Thanks for the great rankings and strategy information year in and year out. Helped me grab Goldschmidt two years ago (won that league), and Pujols last year (almost won that league).

    In another different league, they have max games played and max innings pitched restrictions (162 games and 1,350 innings limitations). Last year, I employed the usual strategy of not keeping bench hitters and loading up on pitchers, only bad thing is I was way over my inning limit pace for most of the year and ended up not being able to have innings “count” for the last couple weeks.

    There are 3 SP spots, 4 RP spots, 2 P spots, and 4 bench spots for this league. Should I try to budget innings out for each spot, or keep more set-up guys with solid ratios? Should I not even consider having bench pitchers, or perhaps try to go with RP guys with SP eligibility? Are there any general guidelines for innings limit leagues?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem…. Yeah, you need to budget innings better… 1350 IP is not many IP… You should lean a little heavier on getting a solid #1… Above Samardzija in my rankings… Also you should get a solid K/9 RP, at least one, maybe two depending on the draft

  33. Alan says:
    (link)

    I have Lackey, Tillman, Stroman, Arrieta, Carrasco, Ervin Santana, Petit w/holland, wade davis, boxberger, broxton as RP. Any of these SPs you wouldnt trade Carlos Gonzalez for in dynasty? Kluber Greinke CUeto Hamels Cobb (I would try to get a wee bit more) Samardzija Thanks for your time

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Kluber

  34. Matt says:
    (link)

    If you owned Koji Uehara, would you handcuff him with both Tazawa and Mujica or just one? I have Mujica and can get Tazawa but only have 7 bench spots.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Tazawa

      • Fireball Feliz says:
        (link)

        @Grey: If one Asian faulters, he is replaced by another Asian. Fung Shui

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Hehe

  35. toppleprone says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey,

    keeper question, keep 4. 6×6 with OBP lose the round they’re kept in:
    Already keeping:
    Donaldson (22)
    Ozuna (22)
    Crush (13)

    have to decide on:
    Machado (9)
    Starling (22)
    Mookie (22)

    Crazy to keep two 3B? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Keep Marte instead of Davis

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh, sorry, you have four… Donaldson, Ozuna, Marte, and Davis

      • toppleprone says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Sorry error on my part, Starlin Castro, not Starling Marte. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Betts over Castro

  36. WalleyWorld says:
    (link)

    Thanks for all you guys do. Love the site. Drafting in a 20 team dynasty league. Through 4 rounds I have Rizzo, Arenado, Wil Myers, Javier Baez. How am I doing and any thoughts on who to target over my next couple picks? I’ll probably be taking Buxton in the MiLB draft with my #1 pick for what its worth. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Take a pitcher or two and an outfielder… Lay off the infield

  37. Jay says:
    (link)

    Rendon and Cano or arenado and desmond

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado

  38. Mike B says:
    (link)

    Dearest Grey,
    Context is everything when asking for advice, so I’ll do my best to illustrate the sitch..
    2 of my leagues (10 teams 5×5 OBP/QS) have innings limits of 1350 along with 9 pitching slots and 7-8 team bench spots. This makes the quality of arms on free agents slightly more fugly, still a couple stream-worthy matchups most days, but not primo starts daily. I looked through league history and last year 5 teams had an era below 3.2 and whip below 1.18. 2013 was similar, not quite as impressive.

    Given this info, would you suggest grabbing sp a round or 2 earlier than your normal guidelines, or does this not affect strategy?

    Thanks again, always a great read!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      10 teams isn’t deep, you should be able to stream… 1350 IP limit isn’t very high though, so you should have a top 12 SP (above Samardzija), so yes you should grab an SP before I usually say… Not two though, that’s too many…

      • Mike B says:
        (link)

        @Grey: thank you, sir. Now I must stop doing mock drafts because I will only be disappointed in my actual drafts when 12 year olds and Eric Karabel don’t comprise the drafting competition.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, no problem

  39. doublebirds says:
    (link)

    Derek Holland seems to be persona non grata in the razzball world….not even making the backend of the top 100+ SPs. Do we dislike him totally even with some solid performance, once he performed in 2014?

    • nick the dick says:
      (link)

      @doublebirds: Grey could never respect a man with a mustache like that

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Haha

        • nick the dick says:
          (link)

          @Grey: loved the article yesterday btw, had Jackin For Blogs stuck in my head all day. Then had an awesome dream where Lori Grenier gave me a passover colostomy bag…thats a cougar sex move right?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            HA, total Cougs sex dream… She’s so hot…. Gimme that beat fool!

            • nick the dick says:
              (link)

              @Grey: Yeah shes such a sweet piece. I’d let her bathe me with a Scrub Daddy. Scrub Mommy, scrub!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Haha… I have a dream where she hears my pitch and calls me a hero.

                • nick the dick says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: I just got chills….I’d throw a patent on the poon of that Quality Value Cougar

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    I have a patent pending on my tattoo that reads Property of Lori Grenier and I’m going to pitch her and her and Barbara will come in together for 50% of my body.

                    • nick the dick says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: lotta equity to give up but it’s a solid business (and pleasure) plan. Not something Mark could sell at his Mavericks games so you dont have to worry about him butting in.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I’d go right up on a shelf at Bed, Bath and Beyond with Mensch on a Bench…

                    • nick the dick says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: Haha she is so proud of her BB&B section. I’d browse the Grey section, but won’t be in there until I need a new Soda Stream

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I stopped using my Sodastream cold turkey… Cougs put the kibosh on it, I was burping too much.

                    • SteveNZ says:
                      (link)

                      @Grey: Of all the crimes committed by husbands (and there are many), I’d have though ‘drinking carbonated water’ was near the bottom of the list.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      It’s how agreeable I am, she’s finding reasons to sanction me… Or it’s how bad my gas was

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’m not crazy about him, why I didn’t rank him

      • Fireball Feliz says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I’m going to give you crud every time he pitches a shutout this year ( It will happen 5 times)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Damn

  40. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    Who is the best hitter in baseball? I have an opinion. Want to hear some other opinions first.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Giannovio

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        My guy had the top hard hit ball percentage on HitF/X last year. GS was 22nd (though he did have most of the individually hardest hit balls of the year, just not the consistency).

        My guy had a .88 BB/K versus GS .55.

        My guy had a 23.3% LD rate vs 19.7% for Stanton.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Travis Snider?! Wait, that’s Sky’s… Could it be Abreu? Can we talk about how he’s now up to #2 overall in Rudy’s rankings

        • MattTruss

          MattTruss says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: Was gonna guess the guy you were concerned about Rudy taking 4th overall in LABR…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @MattTruss:

            Abreu was not in the top 25 in the hard hit list. And I will pause to say hard hit rate and exit velocity (which is my way of saying speed off the bat) are going to be the “it” stats pretty quick. Only reason they aren’t moreso now is because you have to pay for the data whereas Fangraphs has pitchFX data for free. But these metrics are beginning to look quite predictive.

            Abreu’s GB/FB and HR/FB percentages are pretty scary. It’s a tough call because he passes the eye test as a tremendous hitter and he had great results last year. It’s strange to me that he scores so high for Rudy given the wrinkles in the number profile.

            • I am aware of the high % of GBs in 2H (odd that fellow Cuban Puig has same issue). Don’t look at hard hit data but seems to be getting more popular (Ray at Fake Teams was all over it to cast shade on Anthony Rizzo).

              The key for me on someone like Abreu is that those stats are taking snapshots of a moving target. Last year was Abreu’s first year playing against MLB pitching and a full schedule. He kicked ass. He was likely gassed in the 2H and still put up great #s.

              So I see a player at 27, elite hitting skills (great power + solid contact rate), in a great park and lineup, with no history of injuries (cough Stanton cough). I think a year’s experience + stamina balance out some of the crazy GB rate seen in the 2H.

              Now I don’t feel SO SAFE with all the above. Much prefer Trout and the consistency of McCutchen. But I think Abreu beats Stanton in R/RBI/AVG (the latter by ~.20 points) and I’d give Stanton edges in HR/SB. Throw in Stanton’s injury history and the three judges in my head give it to Abreu by a narrow lead.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: Sounds like your choice is Tulo

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Big Magoo:

            Bingo. Arguably the best hitter in baseball. Playing in the best park. It doesn’t really change the story with him, but I think it’s interesting to step back from the injury thing for a second and think about just how good this guy is.

            • Big Magoo

              Big Magoo says:
              (link)

              @GhostTownSteve: Just performed a search involving only road stats to take Coors out of the equation, covering the last three seasons. Tulo is tied for 19th (min 300 PA) with a .367 wOBA and is 21st with a .848 OPS. Tied for 31st with a .68 BB/K ratio.

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Big Magoo:

                beloved Coors. Yes you are correct that it’s park factor driven. Point remains basically the same though in that the skill set and the results (with a blind eye park) look like the top hitter in MLB.

                I think that hard hit ball thing is or particular note.

                • Big Magoo

                  Big Magoo says:
                  (link)

                  @GhostTownSteve: I agree that hard contact % is an important stat to consider. I also think that these results are a huge positive for Tulo. Shows that he’s an elite hitter who’s much less reliant on Coors than his teammates are.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Adam:

        Brantley was very good last year. He was about 15th on the hard hit ball list. Great K/BB. Great LD rate. The one thing is that 28% FB rate calls into question his ability to hit as many HRs. I don’t think he’s quite enough of a power threat to qualify as the best hitter in MLB

        • Sange76 says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve:

          My guess: Miggy is your guy….even in a down year.

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Sange76:

            Miggy probably still is the best though he wasn’t last year. His typical year is off the chart though. My guy has a great track record as far as peripherals go and last year was arguably his best (on a pro rata basis).

  41. Great White North says:
    (link)

    Rule #6 – The Warren Buffett rule: When the herd buys, sell. When the herd sells, buy.

    Warren Buffett went to, but did not graduate from, Grinnell. He became too busy investing other peoples money to graduate. Then he became too busy investing his own money. Then he gave Grinnell all of his money, or just some small portion of 1% of his money, and they built a bunch of stuff. And then their D3 basketball team got to play on ESPN because they score more points per game than Warren Buffett makes in millions of dollars per nanosecond, and the System and the what not and the Jello pudding.

    So be like Warren, make all the millions, get all the honeys, or just win your nerdy stat-driven fantasy league by following Warren’s simple rule of investing, although he probably has lots of pie charts to help him, and buy when others sell, sell when others buy. Or take a catcher too early, or a 1B way too late, because then you won’t be in the herd, and value will present itself, like sweating honeys to Warren in the warm Iowa sun.

    Someone has to be last, and someone has to be Warren Buffett. Neither are in the herd.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I like that!

    • GhostTownSteve says:
      (link)

      @Great White North:

      I was thinking about this last night. Here are some guys that have wide spreads between their max and min pick in the early NFBC ADP. There seem to be categories of players that divide fantasy players the most. Injuries, prospects, break out players the next year, scarcity (catchers esp), strategic considerations (draft closers don’t draft closers) and age. One think I did notice in reviewing the min/max from 2014 ADP is that a lot of breakout players did appear on my list. In other words a lot of break out guys had at least one champion.

      Sean Doolittle (P, Oak) -193
      Dellin Betances (P, NYY) -162
      Koji Uehara (P, Bos) -157
      Masahiro Tanaka (P, NYY) -146
      Yasmany Tomas (OF, Ari) -140
      Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) -132
      Wilin Rosario (C, Col) -127
      Javier Baez (SS, ChC) -121
      Gregory Polanco (OF, Pit) -120
      J.D. Martinez (OF, Det) -116
      Chris Carter (DH, Hou) -116
      Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) -115
      Pablo Sandoval (3B, Bos) -110
      Drew Storen (P, Was) -109
      Matt Carpenter (3B, StL) -109
      Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex) -108
      Glen Perkins (P, Min) -108
      Kris Bryant (3B, ChC) -107
      Manny Machado (3B, Bal) -104
      Danny Santana (OF, Min) -103
      Doug Fister (P, Was) -102
      Charlie Blackmon (OF, Col) -101
      Josh Harrison (3B, Pit) -101
      Jorge Soler (OF, ChC) -101
      Fernando Rodney (P, Sea) -100
      Neil Walker (2B, Pit) -99
      Lance Lynn (P, StL) -99
      Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) -98
      Evan Gattis (C, Hou) -96
      Matt Wieters (C, Bal) -94
      David Ortiz (DH, Bos) -93
      Hisashi Iwakuma (P, Sea) -93
      Victor Martinez (DH, Det) -92
      Dustin Pedroia (2B, Bos) -92
      Nelson Cruz (DH, Sea) -89
      Mookie Betts (OF, Bos) -89
      Alex Gordon (OF, KC) -89
      Ben Revere (OF, Phi) -89
      Starlin Castro (SS, ChC) -88
      Carlos Carrasco (P, Cle) -88
      Gerrit Cole (P, Pit) -86
      Rusney Castillo (OF, Bos) -86
      Yordano Ventura (P, KC) -86
      Huston Street (P, LAA) -85
      Gio Gonzalez (P, Was) -85
      Adam LaRoche (1B, ChW) -85
      James Shields (P, SD) -83
      Prince Fielder (1B, Tex) -82
      Christian Yelich (OF, Mia) -81
      Trevor Rosenthal (P, StL) -80

      • Great White North says:
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        @GhostTownSteve: Kewl. I plan on making this into a pie chart so I can feel my inner Buffett, tap my little Warren.

  42. Adam says:
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    In a 4 keeper (5×5 roto) league, would it be a good idea to trade Beltre and Kinsler for Rendon? If your other 3 keepers were locked in as Kershaw, Puig, and Brantley.

    Can’t really see myself keeping both Beltre and Kinsler given those other 3 options above, so I figure I might as well upgrade if I can….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take Rendon

  43. Tingling says:
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    Hanley and Rendon or Miggy and Cano? Which side do you like in an OPS keep forever league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rendon

  44. Schwab says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,
    Anther keeper question. 8 Teams H2H points league. Can keep players for as long as you want. Each team keeps 15 players. Would you trade Hosmer, Cueto & Kluber for Goldy and Latos?
    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes

  45. dan says:
    (link)

    In a 10 team, h2h league…where TB/RBI/R/SB/BB are the 5 hitting categories, who would you take (hitters) with your 1st and 2nd picks?…if these settings and factors listed below all applied….

    1. Some 1st/2nd round type keepers are Stanton, Abreu, Puig, Rendon, Desmond, Brantley, etc—so they won’t be available to draft

    2. Trout, Cutch, Miggy, Goldy, Bautista, and Tulo (I know…I am happy he is going this high) are likely to be drafted ahead of my 1st pick

    3. From what some of my league-mates say, some guys who could go before my 2nd pick are Altuve, F-Her, Kersh, MadBum, A.Jones, Wainwright, etc.

    That’s just some of it…some of what COULD happen…I would have (ideally, as it appears now) my choice of 2 of Gomez, Edwin, and Rizzo (Donaldson, Hanley and just about any other hitter not yet mentioned).

    Which 2 bats of the options I listed above or anyone else (since you don’t suggest taking SP this early) would you pick? In what order?

    Ideally, MY preference is to come away with JBats and Edwin 1-2…this topic is in regards to the event that JBats is taken before my first pick…I don’t think he will be, but one manager recently said he all of a sudden is considering taking him over Goldy.

    Thank you!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d go with my rankings for who’s left

      • dan says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        who are your preferences out of those possibilities? who does Grey like? haha

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d go with my rankings

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @dan: Holy hypotheticals, Batman. Use the rankings, brah.

      • dan says:
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        @Cram It:

        Forget it, gents. I won’t bother you anymore…what a waste of time. Peace

        • Cram It says:
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          @dan: Well, can’t tell who’s actually available or who you have already, so, it’s pretty confusing dude..to me anyway. Gomez, Rizzo and Edwin are available for your 1st and 2nd picks? But Altuve and Wainright are being taken before them per what your league mates are saying? Huh?

        • Cram It says:
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          @dan: I think the waste of time here is Grey putting together his rankings and a post on how to pair your first two draft picks, if you’re not going to use them reasonably.

        • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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          @dan: are you seriously put out that somebody won’t take your eyes over his rankings for you? Go on over to espn/anywhere else, see how they help you out. Have a nanny do it.

  46. Sange76 says:
    (link)

    Better start to a draft in 12 team
    head to head points league

    Bautista, Braun, Greinke or
    Felix, Braun, pujols?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Felix

  47. Books! says:
    (link)

    OPS keeper as long as you want league… I have a decent, but aging team and the last pick of every round after winning last year. I could use some advice on a potential trade trying to build for the future.

    I’d give Miggy, McCutch
    I’d get Stanton, Rendon, Freeman

    Should I pull the trigger?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sounds good

      • Books! says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Now he’s pushing back and wants to give Hanley instead of Stanton. What do you think?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          What’s the full trade?

          • Books! says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            McCutch and Miggy for Rendon, Freeman, Hanley…. I love Rendon but I’m not as crazy about Hanley given his lack of durability and age.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              McCutchen side

    • Books! says:
      (link)

      @Books!:

      Now he’s pushing back and wants to give Hanley instead of Stanton

  48. SwaggerJackers says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    I’ve read your take on Springer as a high ceiling, low floor guy.

    How much do you like him in a keep forever weekly lock 12 team H2H league with OBP instead of AVG?

    I could likely snag him in the 4th round after my keepers of Goldy, Stanton, and Abreu.

    The keeper aspect of it makes me lean toward him over a guy like Pence. At the same time, if he really does strike out non stop for a week straight, there is something to be said for a guy like Pence in H2H.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d take him in the 4th

      • SwaggerJackers says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I like that answer. I’ve never owned the gangley man bird and didn’t want to break my streak now.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha

  49. Chris S says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I’ve picked most of my 8 team dynasty keepers, but need to choose 2 more from the following 4 options:

    Machado (19th rd)
    A. Cobb (20th)
    Alexei Ramirez (27th)
    Fiers (28th)

    Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Cobb, Machado

  50. Lemmingness says:
    (link)

    In a 10 team, 5-keeper points league favoring pitchers (Last year VMart at 525 pts and Kershaw/Cueto at 730 pts, for some scale), which side between Darvish + 7th rnd pick, or Arenado + 6th rnd pick?

    Thanks a bunch

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Arenado

  51. Tom says:
    (link)

    I’m in a 1 catcher 10 team h2h league w/OBP. Rankings for Gattis are all over the place. Rudy has him at 54 in a 12 team 1 catcher and you have him at 189. Your 2015 projection for him was 67/27/81/.251 which is about the same as Rudy’s Steamer adjusted projections but I’m not sure if either projection was made before or after the trade to Houston.

    In any case…with my league format, where do you think it makes sense to draft him if he’s still there and is your projection above post trade?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I would draft him where I’ve ranked him…

    • All about strategy here. Both Grey and I are believers in the ‘punt catcher’ strategy for just about all formats but especially in shallow leagues. With your last pick, you are guaranteed the 10th catcher. I’d need like a 5 round discount on Gattis before I’d think about him in your format.

  52. Matt says:
    (link)

    Can I win 15 team 5×5 NFBC style with Arrieta, Carrasco, Stroman, Ervin Santana, Tillman, Lackey, and Petit as my SP elig guys (well bucholz too)? Have Boxberger, Wade Davis and Greg Holland to help ratios too. Or do I need to get an SP to help?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You look fine

  53. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    what do you usually do on the basketball podcast? (does Nick run that?)

  54. Surgeo says:
    (link)

    I was just curious if theses 5 guidelines are true in points leagues too? Pitchers and hitters end up pretty comparable in final points, but pitchers are always drafted early. I pick 6th in a 12-team league and I was just wondering what your thoughts were? Thanks!

  55. AJ says:
    (link)

    Hey! Grey!

    So I’m coming off a championship in a 14 tm 6×6 keeper league with OPS and K/BB as additional cats. I have 4 ridiculous offensive keepers: Giancarlo, Abreu, Rendon, and Ortiz all at great value….

    …But my other two are SPs that you hate this year — Wainwright and Jose Fernandez. I need to keep both because they are incredible values (20th and 22nd round respectively), but your rankings have me worried about their contributions this year (mostly Waino’s since I wasn’t expecting much from Jose anyway). So my question is this: how should I use you SP pitcher pairings? What tier would I need to pair with Waino to make you comfortable with my staff? The top 2 SP available when I pick will be Greinke and Hamels, but I’ve actually been considering just pairing some other crazy risks (Tanaka, Harvey, Cliff Lee) with them under the assumption that at least a couple of them should pan out as top SPs.

  56. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    Kenley out 8-12 weeks after foot surgery….ouch

    • nick the dick says:
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      @J-FOH: Shit, I have him as my 6th round mock keeper

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @nick the dick: you’ll bounce back in time

  57. Matt says:
    (link)

    Since you love both abreu and arenado, would you trade abreu for arenado and yelich in dynasty?

  58. Michael says:
    (link)

    Well said Razz!! I won an 8 player keeper league last year reaching for Avisail Garcia in the second round…. Derp…… Of course, I had some damn good keepers, but nonetheless I caught flack for reaching. I’ll probably reach again this year for him.

  59. spm7189 says:
    (link)

    Just finished drafting in 12-team 5×5 roto where I ended up with the 2nd pick. I hesitated a little bit but I embraced my inner Grey and took Stanton. After that it was hitters rounds 2-5, and then for whatever reason I ended up taking pitchers in clumps of three (6-8, 11-13). Team ended up looking like:
    C – Wilin Rosario ( He was there at pick 218 so meh)
    1B – Lucas Duda (Took him instead of Hosmer at the back of Round 10, either was was bleh for a starting 1B)
    2B – Kolten Wong (98;It was Wong or Dozier here but Grey showed too much lust for the Wong for me to pass him up)
    3B – Josh Donaldson (26, on the flip side of my Harper pick)
    SS – Xander Bogaerts (Was there at 167, couldn’t pass him up)
    OF – Giancarlo Stanton
    OF – Bryce Harper (Got him at the ass-end of round 2)
    OF – Corey Dickerson (50, flipside of my Arenado pick)
    UTIL – Nolan Arenado (47)
    UTIL – Yasmany Tomas (170)
    Bench – Rusney Castillo (191)
    Bench – Michael Saunders (215)
    Bench – Oswaldo Arcia (263)

    SP – Jeff Samardzija(71)
    SP – Jake Arrieta (74)
    RP – Tyler Clippard (194; my RPs every year always look hideous but for a roto league this is probably extra no bueno)
    RP – Hawkins (239; also yikes)
    P – Tyson Ross (95)
    P – Gerrit Cole (122)
    P – Zack Wheeler (143)
    P – Phil Hughes (146)
    Bench – Drew Hutchinson (242)
    Bench – Nate Eovaldi (266)

    I’m thinking with my bats I’ve got power and speed and counting stats and upside and with my starting pitching I’ve got a bunch of #2’s sprinkled in with some upside and a steaming pile of something else often referred to as number two for the saves category. I know it’s very early but I figure getting critiqued on this free league before I get drafting my money leagues (one a 12-team H2H and the second a 14-team roto so both fairly similar to this one) couldn’t hurt.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Put comments to me in my newest post

      • spm7189 says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Whoops that was my B I had this one and the new one up and started commenting on the wrong tab

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