Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Top 200 for 2022

Howdy Razzball Community!

I’m new around these parts, but you’ll be seeing plenty of me. Scouting is my great passion (besides Annie Savoy), and therefore I’m going to be taking a look at keepers and dynasty leagues. Some of the best times to make trades in these leagues is just after the season ends. You can gain value by projecting for the future, as well as prey on the instability and desperation of your league-mate’s disappointing finish.

Obviously in keeper and dynasty you are looking ahead, but these rankings are situation-dependent . Flags fly forever, and I’m all for trading future assets if your window is open. Conversely, don’t get stuck in the middle! If your team has hit a ceiling, don’t be afraid of a rebuild. I’ll make it a general rule that these rankings are for 3-ish year windows, with youth obviously ascending and the old guard declining. Ian Anderson may not be better than Yu Darvish in two years, but in four?

High On:

Matt Olson- Don’t ask me why he isn’t higher on rankings across the interweb. If you drafted him, you may find yourself the owner (cue the Talking Heads) of Freddie Freeman without the high price tag. Cutting one’s strikeout rate in half just as you enter your prime is MVP-candidate stuff, and he’s doing all of this in pitcher-friendly Oakland, where players rarely resign for massive contracts. Can you imagine him in pinstripes? I hate the Yankees, so I’d prefer you didn’t. I only imagine nine cold-hitting Rougned Odor’s in pinstripes when I’m in my pinstripe imaginarium.

Shane McClanahan and Michael Kopech- I’m not exactly a hot take artist for saying these guys are next. As I said, scouting is my passion, and for all the numbers which define baseball, the eye test sometimes has to be accounted for.  (These guys excel in some important numbers too, like MPH and K/BB). I wouldn’t worry about Kevin Cash with Shane, per say. He’s already starting to draw quality starts as a rookie. As for Kopech, the Baseball Savant page was Lenin-and-Trotsky level crimson up until a 5 ER outing recently, and word on the south side is he was tipping pitches. Fun Fact: Kopech is from my area code in East Texas, and was little league besties with Pat Mahomes.

Marlins Pitchers- They might all appear higher than consensus, but I’m convinced LoanDepot Park is a top 5 pitcher’s park, and, more importantly, that the Marlins are much closer to contention than realized. We’re all aware The Lizard King is going to turn it around in Miami, right? If you want a solid No.2 for 5+ years, you can’t do worse than Sandy Alcantara and Trevor Rogers. They have the build, approach and fastball consistency that make Zack Wheeler and Lance Lynn so reliable.

Alex Kirilloff- The fantasy baseball whiskey dick of 2021. We all checked his game logs and looked for the boner that never came. Kirilloff played through a wrist injury which sapped his power, but prior to that, he was a 95th percentile exit velocity guy, and his production never caught up to his peripherals when healthy. I think his future is as a consistent .290, 30 homer guy a la a Bregman or Seager. I will have a million shares of him, and hopefully the weird season will keep his draft price low.

I’m also high on Jazz Chisholm Jr. (planning to talk more about him down the road) , Trent Grisham, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, Tyler O’Neill, Austin Riley, Max Muncy (especially for win-now managers), Julio Urias, Tyler Mahle, and Framber Valdez. If you guys have any questions about them, hit me up in the comments!

Low On:

Cody Bellinger- Obviously, recency bias is dangerous, but there’s concern here. I was already worried about his endless swing-tinkering. I mean, I like the drive for perfection, but the guy won an MVP award. It likely hasn’t gotten easier to tinker while his body isn’t responding. There were also warning signs before the injury; his rolling hard-hit percentage and chase rate had steadily declined after his MVP season, even when healthy. Clearly, this could make me look very bad next year, but I’m open to changing my rankings once we feel the copium of a healthy Spring Training.

Ke’Bryan Hayes- I hate this. It feels like I’m telling my son he won’t make the team. I LOVE Ke’Bryan Hayes. Everyone does. He’s truly a great IRL player, and one who will be a viable fantasy producer for a long time. But Pittsburgh provides him no support (and hasn’t shown the capability to do so going forward), he doesn’t hit for power and his in-game speed has not translated to stolen bases. At third base, there’s better *FANTASY* guys in better lineups, like Austin Riley. I do think, because he’s a hard worker, we could see some launch angle change in his future. He has runs where he gets real lift and barrels the ball, but they are flashes for now.

Gavin Lux- I just don’t get it. I mean, second base is a wasteland and he might be solid, but I don’t think there’s a high ceiling. If he ever has such a season, it will be lineup and batting order-dependent, and I can’t see the Dodgers ever needing to bat him that high. We’ve heard a lot about his sprint speed, but rarely seen it tested. I feel very similar about Cavan Biggio. Gleyber Torres was in this box, but I’m encouraged enough by the recent willingness to run to think there is upside left.

DJ LeMahieu-  He had a much better second half after a terrible start, but I think on balance he’s probably somewhere in between these days. Obviously he’s still very useful in fantasy, but he’s also thirty-three and doesn’t offer high-variance upside. This is very draft-price dependent, but I’m measuring him against other rankings I’ve seen.

I’m also low on relievers as a team-building rule for these formats. A fantasy bullpen can always be cobbled together, and trading a top-line closer for value elsewhere is usually a win.

Too low on your guy? Again, let me know down below! Let’s argue!

THE LIST