We came out with the big guns in our first Fantasy Baseball Busts article, providing you with Top-50 players we want to fade. This article is much easier to write because the success rate will be much higher. In fact, I believe this is where you win or lose your draft and taking any of these guys I mention here is a quick way to land you near the bottom of your standings! Busts are a good way to fall out of your league and hopefully, this can stray you away from some of them. Without further ado, let’s get into our busts between 50 and 100.

If you have any comments reach me here below in the comment box. Also, if you want to call me an idiot, you can reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Lucas Giolito (CWS) 

This one concerns me a bit because Giolito does have ace potential but he is just as likely to pumpkin back into a gas can. The reason he’s going so high is because of his 3.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 32.3 percent K rate. Those are all really impressive marks but his peripherals tell us a different story. We’re talking about a dude who has a 4.73 career FIP and 4.60 xFIP. That’s downright ugly and it’s really no surprise when you see his low spin rate (2077 rpm) and barrel/BBE rate (8.2 percent). That looks even worse when you consider his 1.2 HR/9 rate and his lack of movement on pitches is sending the ball over the fence.  

Another thing that worries me about Giolito is this ballpark. Guaranteed Rate Field actually surrendered the fifth-most dingers in the league last season and that’s bad news for a guy who has a propensity to allow plenty of homers. That’s evident when you see that Giolito has an ERA approaching 6.00 and a WHIP just shy of 1.40 at home dating back to 2018. All of these factors make Giolito one of the biggest potential busts out there and someone I definitely want to fade at 50th overall, despite the upside.  

Victor Robles (WSH) 

Is this price tag even right? What the hell are people thinking? Robles is currently the 63rd player off the board and I’d argue that he shouldn’t even be going in the Top-100. We’re talking about a guy who finished with a .326 OBP, .419 SLG and .745 OPS. Those are numbers that you can find on any waiver wire and it’s hard to see him stealing more than 30 bags in the bottom half of the Nationals lineup. Those baseline numbers are bad but the advanced statistics are even worse. The speedy outfielder finished with a .233 xBA, .370 xSLG and .292 xwOBA. Those are simply some of the worst numbers you’ll see in the Majors and it has me wondering what the market is thinking.

People are surely drafting him based on his draft prowess but it’s hard to overlook statistics like these. There are numerous others too. For example, his 5.7 percent BB rate, 23 percent K rate, .165 ISO, 83 percent exit velocity and 25 percent hard-hit rate are all terrible numbers as well. Honestly, I think there’s a better chance that Robles will be in the minors by July rather than in the Top-50 for fantasy. All of that makes Robles my biggest fade of the season and it would be silly to take him in the first six rounds of your draft, making him one of the biggest busts out there.  

Corey Kluber (TEX) 

Kluber is someone who I used to target all the time in drafts but this move to Texas scares me to death. While he did have an injury-riddled 2018-19 campaign, it was not pretty before that. In fact, Klubot finished the year with a 5.80 ERA and 1.65 WHIP across seven starts. While he’s obviously better than that, it’s scary that a 34-year-old is steadily seeing his numbers fall off. The strikeout rate is a major reason why, with it going from 34 percent in 2017 to 26 percent in 2018 down to 22.6 percent last season. A declining strikeout rate from an aging pitcher is a scary proposition but we haven’t even discussed the worst part about drafting him. 

Guys, Kluber is moving to Texas! While we all know it’s a hitter’s park, I don’t think people realize just how bad it is. This park has ranked first or second in negative park factor in three-straight seasons, trading off with Coors Field. That’s truly horrifying for a dude who’s seeing a decline in his stuff and it would be hard to imagine him keeping his ERA below 4.00 in a nightmare park like this. That’s even more terrifying when you consider this division, facing potent offenses like the Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros. Streamer completely agrees, projecting him for a 4.23 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP and 24 percent K rate. 

Tim Anderson (CWS) 

Anderson was arguably the luckiest hitter in the league last season and that always tends to lead to an inflation in price, making him one of the easiest busts out there. That’s certainly what we have here, with Anderson being the 97th player off the board. That price actually looks like a discount when you see Anderson’s raw numbers from last year but the industry is privy to his lucky charms. While he did hit .335, providing 18 homers and 17 steals, it’s hard to overlook the advanced statistics. The speedy shortstop finished with a .294 xBA, .461 xSLG and .328 xwOBA 

Those expected averages are more in tune with what we expect to see this season because his plate disciple isn’t good enough to support a .335 average. We’re talking about a guy who has a 2.9 percent BB rate and a 21 percent K rate. He also had a sky-high .399 BABIP and .173 ISO, making those 2019 statistics look like a farce. We haven’t even discussed the lineup, as he’ll surely be batting near the bottom with guys like Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Eloy JimenezYasmani Grandal, Luis Robert and Edwin Encarnacion all batting ahead of him. There’s just too much going against Timmy here to draft him this high, especially at such a deep position like shortstop. All of this makes him one of the most likely busts out there. 

 
  1. Waldorf says:
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    Texas is opening a new park, it’ll likely play much more neutral than Globe Life bc it’ll be climate controlled. May want to revisit the Kluber analysis.

    • Andrew B says:
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      I was thinking the EXACT same thing as @Waldorf.
      So @TheRealJoeyBart, what does that do for you? Any chance Kluber can rebound and be at least a top 20 SP in this new ballpark?

      I have to decide between Kluber, Abreu, Kepler, Castellanos, or MadBum in a keeper league (can only keep one).

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        My 2 cents, Arlington is now neutral at worst

      • The Real Joey Bart

        The Real Joey Bart says:
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        I honestky did not know that. Not sure how I missed that. In any case, I think the weather is the main reason why its a terrible ballpark and that surely wont change. It does make me question just how much of a bust he’ll be because Kluber’s price has actually dropped in the last couple of weeks too. I think a rebound is possible but this is almost a guy that Id like to buy low on if he struggles again after the opening month. He always seems to struggle in April so if you could get him for cheap after that, that wouldnt be the worst idea. As for the keeper question, I guess Id go Abreu but thats tough man. Kepler intrigues me a lot too.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      oh crap. Thanks for pointing that out Waldorf. I honestly had no idea. My apologies. Obviously, we dont know how that ballpark will play yet but I’m assuming the hot weather has a lot to do with the high-scoring so Im not sure how much my analysis would change. Thanks for pointing that out though!

      • Jacob says:
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        The new park has a roof and will climate controlled….

        • The Real Joey Bart

          The Real Joey Bart says:
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          Yeah I noticed that when I read a little more into it. I guess we wont really know until we see some games I guess. Thanks for the heads up.

  2. Matt says:
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    I don’t know about your reasoning on Anderson. At an ADP of 97, no one is paying for a .335 average. A .294 xBA is…really good. The guy just won a batting title, deservedly or not, so there’s no earthly way he doesn’t hit at the top of that lineup (roster resource has him at #2.) Rudy has him at .275-77-21-78-17 which feels closer to his floor than ceiling. That $18.80 projection makes him the very nice 69th overall player in 15 teamers and a pretty good profit at 97.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      You make some really good points. That .294 xBA doesnt really seem likely for me either though. That .275 line by Rudy seems like a good bet to me and I think we’ll see his runs and RBIs dip at the bottom of that order. I really don’t see how he’ll bat first or second with the way the roster is constructed. Obviously that’s playing a huge factor in my thoughts on him but how can they hit ahead of the guys that I mentioned? This will definitely be a situation to monitoe the closer we get to actual games

      • baby seal says:
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        Who’s going to hit at the top? Robert is going to have to take that spot from him.

        • The Real Joey Bart

          The Real Joey Bart says:
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          I think it will be Robert. I also wouldnt be surprised if its Moncada.

          • baby seal says:
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            Right now I see Moncada batting 1st and Anderson 2nd. Makes sense to me, no?

            I think Anderson would really have to suck to move down, and then him batting lower in the order would probably be the least of his worries.

            I think the price is actually quite nice. But I’m not targeting him per se.

            With you on Robles. Hell no.

            Giolito price is a bit expensive for me. But the pitching landscape is a disaster, so it makes sense. Think he’ll be fine. Prefer Severino there if I can.

            Bo is power/speed guy I’m avoiding. No reason to think he’ll be running IMO. Vlad price is also way too expensive. I can easily see him returning 2nd round value, but I won’t be the one paying for it.

            One guy I’m trying to figure out is Woodruff. Thoughts? I’ve been going Paxton around there when I can.

            Looking forward to your posts again this year!

            • The Real Joey Bart

              The Real Joey Bart says:
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              Its funny you bring up Woodruff. He was one of my first inclinations for this article but when digging into his stats, there wasnt really anything negative about him. There wasnt really anything positive either though so I think he’ll be the same guy this season. I do prefer Paxton to him though. Pax looks like a nice value even though I hate drafting NYY pitchers.

              • baby seal says:
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                Couldn’t agree more with everything you just said!!

                That’s why I avoided Pax last year. But at around 100 ADP… feels like most of the downside is priced in now.

                • The Real Joey Bart

                  The Real Joey Bart says:
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                  Yup, thanks for reading n commenting!

  3. Alex says:
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    Giolito made a tangible change in his throwing mechanics that led to a more consistent throwing motion and his fastball averaged almost 2mph more in 2019 than 2018. He was simply a different pitcher in 2019 than 2018 so merging stats from the two seasons does not make sense. “His peripherals tell us a different story” is a blatantly false statement. His 3.41 ERA is backed by a 3.43 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, and 3.57 SIERA. His 32.3% K rate is backed by a 15.0% SwStr%. All stats from Fangraphs.

    This does not necessarily mean he will fully repeat his 2019 success but nothing in his statistical profile indicates he was lucky. Given his prospect pedigree and the fact he only turns 26 in July plus what should be a vastly improved White Sox offense, he may even be a draft day bargain as he is currently going around the top 15-20 starters.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      I can’t disagree with what you’re saying because of the pedigree and improvement last season but part of me believes that this 32 percent K rate is unsustainable. While he did look like a new pitcher last season his spin rates and velocity spike are things that hitters can get used ti rather quickly.. That really worries me for a guy who has the propensity to get blown up every once in awhile. Maybe lucky isn’t the right term. I just think he;s due for some negative regression and this price tag doesnt seem to be accounting for the potential of that. I appreciate your feedback though and its definitely something that Ill look more into.

    • Bterry says:
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      100%.
      (Guess i made the ole mistake of commenting before reading the comments… my bad)

  4. Ronald says:
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    I’m being offered $18 Trevor Story for a $21 Corey Seager, $5 Dylan Cease and a $4 Daulton Varsho. I’m in a 12 team dynasty league. Varsho is the x-factor here for me. Is it worth giving up Varsho in this deal for Story.

    Thoughts? Deal or no Deal?

    • Dong Show says:
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      You’re going to get more out of Story than you will those 3 for this year (and maybe for the next 2-3) and if you’re in contention, 100% pull that trigger in my book.

      –Seager hasn’t proven much since rookie year and hes a hope and a prayer with his health. –Cease is a great arm, but really needs to work on control. Keep an eye out on minors and you can find up and coming arms like this and be aggressive in you FA and you can find solid production that Cease may not even be giving you for current rotation.

      Varsho is full of intrigue (I call him Jason Kendall 2.0) and if he sticks at catcher, that a major plus but right now, he’s blocked by Kelly and may get regular playing time else where. His contribution wholly depends on how well he’s hitting and if Dbacks have spots open up for him to play.

    • Andrew Edenbaum says:
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      No brainer !!

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Dong Show is right on here. Story is undoubtedly the choice here. Not only is Seager an average fanatsy shortstoo at this point, Story has developed into an absoplute stud. The rest doesnt really matter with the difference between these two. Im also the type of owner that tries to sell high on prospects as mich as possible so that plays into my opinion too.

  5. Barry Bonds says:
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    Dont do the deal, especially since u are in a dynasty league–Varsho is something special as a catcher with speed–and Cease may turn into something special also

    • Gipper says:
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      But Story already is special. Go for it, if in contention

  6. Ronald says:
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    But Trevor is a top 10 consensus player on most rankings. Cease will have to get better control. Varsho looks special, but….Story is a 1st rounder. I have Flaherty, Giolito to anchor pitching…i have acuna, betts, freeman as my big guys. Now is a time to go for a title. I’m still stockpiled at pitching with Nate Pearson and Ian Anderson.

    • Chucky says:
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      Yeah, I agree. You get to add a top ten bat to that big three, you gotta go for it. Flags fly forever.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      Take Story. Your window to win is open. Go for it!

      • Ronald says:
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        I took the deal. I have Pearson and Anderson still. Story is ranked way higher and costs $3 less than Seager alone. I have Acuna, Betts, Freeman and Story. That’s 4 potential 1st rounders.

        I’m sure Cease will learn control, but when? Jon Gray has a better walk per innings rate. Anderson and Pearson have similar upside. I feel pretty good.

        Flags fly forever.

        • The Real Joey Bart

          The Real Joey Bart says:
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          I think you did the right thing here! I mean Acuna, Betts, Freeman and Story is ridiculous. And its not like any of them are close to falling off either.

          • Ronald Coyle says:
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            my pitching is flaherty, giolito, stroman, gray, lamet, and griffin canning…i have ian anderson and nate pearson in my minors funnel.

            Also, I’m tied for most draft cash at $94. Kershaw and Madbum are on the waiver to be drafted. I expect Snell to be free, but not until the last minute. Kershaw is only 32 years old. He seems like he might be a value this year.

            This is a 40 man $400 Ottoneu dynasty league.

            • The Real Joey Bart

              The Real Joey Bart says:
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              Yeah Kershaw has become a nice value the last couple of years for whatever reason. Not sure why people have been sleeping on him. 40-man league, wow. I probably dont have the prospect knowledge to do something like that!

              • Ronald says:
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                12 teams, but we can roster 40 guys per team including minor leagues.

                • The Real Joey Bart

                  The Real Joey Bart says:
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                  oh gotcha. Thats still a pretty deep format. My go-to format is h2h 9cat. I just love the chaos in those sort of leagues and feel like my waiver wire ability gives me the upperhand on my opponents.

  7. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    1st Cole and Tatis, and now Giolito, Robles, and Anderson. Wow. You and I are polar opposites, but then again, I didn’t fade Yelich last year. I rode him to NFBC Online Championship and a Super lg. title. Giolito is a stud and I’ll roll with him on any of my teams. Robles was a pup last year, and is a candidate to improve. With Trea batting 3d, Robles can end up batting 2nd. Regardless, I wouldn’t be shocked if he approaches 40 bags. Great defense will give him every day playing time. Minors by July ? Care to wager ? Anderson is a 20/20 candidate once again. xBA was .279.Sprained ankle cost him July.
    Was going to fade Kluber, but you now have me leaning the other way. Surprised Trout wasn’t on your list.

    • Dave D says:
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      I am totally with you on this post, Andrew. I already own Robles and will own Gioloto. I completely disagree with Joey.

      Anyway, I read your championship bio on the NFBC site, Andrew. Great story. Congrats on beating cancer and may you live another 20+ healthy years!!!

      • andrew edenbaum says:
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        Thanks Dave. Unfortunately one never beats cancer while you still have it. Need to engage in active surveillance. Flipped to essentially plant based diet, and eliminated processed foods and all unnecessary sugars.
        Appreciate the kind thoughts !

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      haha no I dont care to wager on the Robles minors thing, that was just more of a brash prediction. That hitting profile scares me to death but if he found himself atop that linep, I couldn’t argue with 30 stolen bags.

      Thats all fair man, if you dont want to fade these guys thats cool. Fantasy baseball is very subjective. Almost all of my busts hit last season aside from Yelich and saying any Top-10 guy is a bust not something that hits on a high rate. Thanks for commenting though.

  8. Contrary to most opinions – I agree with your bust evaluations. As for Giolito – I’d much rather Glasnow twenty picks later.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Well at least someone agrees haha. Yeah Im a Glasnow guy myself.

  9. TC says:
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    I have Anderson as an 18th round guy in a 10 team league where we get to keep 15. Loving that value!! Lol

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Oh hell ya. Hes certainly not a bust with those parameters

  10. Bterry says:
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    I dont think its fair to say career stats for Giolito in this context. He clearly rounded a corner last year. His 2019 fip was 3.43 and his xfip was 3.46. His fastball spin rate was 2,255 in 2019 too. I’m not a huge fan of Giolito’s because of his a few reason. But his career stats definitely isnt one of them. He wasnt the same pitcher last year as he was the two before.

    • Bterry says:
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      A few reasons*

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      I see your other comment too. Thats cool man, I cant disagree with that assessment. Hes definitely a candidate to be an ace this season but I just dont trust him. I guess I didnt emphasize just how muh the price tag scares me. The stats last year are very impressive and I guess I should have tried to make a better point on how I expect them to regress rather than discuss is as a luck thing. Thats my bad.

      • Bterry says:
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        The price tag means i will have zero shares of him this year. Completely agree. Def some risk.

  11. Andrew B says:
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    @TheRealJoeyBart, I respect the fact that you’re taking all these people going in on you and still keeping it classy! Keep writing the articles!

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Thanks man. Ya its cool. 9 times out of 10 my feedback is positive on these articles but this one just seems to irk the audience a bit haha Ive noticed that bust articles are the ones that make people go batty the most and its completly understandable. Busts tend to be controversial and volatile in nature so om cool with getting some negative feedback. If I didnt, I probably wouldnt be picking high enough guys haha Its nice hearing your guys opinions actually, it helps me get better.

  12. Harley Earl says:
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    Dude,

    I hate to break this to you, but it seems you’re completely out of the loop. Texas is moving into a new ballpark this season. LOL. Nobody knows if it will be a hitter’s park or pitcher’s park. It’s rumored to be thought of as a pitcher’s park but I’ll wait and see to believe that.

    I think your age argument on Kluber holds plenty of water. I wouldn’t touch him either way. Just thought you should know about the new park. Loved your take on Robles. Makes 110 percent sense. He scares me too!

    Keep up the good work.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Yup it appears I missed the boat on that one. Thats totally my bad. Looking into when new ballparks open is something I didnt even consider but I deff need to do that every offseason. Yeah the Robles price is probably the most surprising thing Ive seen in ADP thus far. I get hes a high prospect but those adv. hitting numbers are just atrocious.

  13. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    great post thanks

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Thanks Al. Good to hear from you again

  14. andrew edenbaum says:
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    Nothing personal Joey. Can always agree to disagree. Glasnow is a stud, but injury history scares me off. Same with Kershaw.
    What’s your take on Fried ? I’m a big fan.

  15. The Real Joey Bart

    The Real Joey Bart says:
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    It’s all good man. Yeah I personally dont mind taking risks on injury guys like that just because I feel confident in my waiver wire game. You’re gonna hate me bro haha Fried is actually in my bust article that will be published this week haha I jus think his wins are inflating his price

  16. andrew edenbaum says:
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    Naagh, I’m not a hater Joey. But that’s so funny. I’ve had 2 OLC drafts so far, and have jumped up on Fried (and Olson), on both, as well as snagging Gilioto at his adp.
    I do appreciate you having the balls to give your predictions, regardless of the outcome.
    Now, w/out waiting for another article of who you DO like, give me a few starters that you’d jump up a round or 2 to snag this year.
    Then I’ll dig a little deeper, and see if we can agree on anything. haha
    Thanks,

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Hey we agree on Olson! I absolutely love him this year.
      Um players who I like at their price are: JD, Springer, Blackmon, Darvish, Gallo, Cruz, Moose, Hoskins, Ray, Boyd, K Davis, Encarnacion, Mccuctchen, Lucchesi, Upton, D Murphy, Pollock, Desclafani, Archer

      I just ran throygh ADP and named em off so I might have missed some but those were ones that popped off based on ADP

      • 183414 says:
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        Thanks Joey. Moustakas is on both of my 2 teams I drafted, and Ray would have been on both , but for Ryu falling to 166. I like Lucchesi, particularly at home, where I can watch him pitch, and think Weaver, if healthy, has nice upside.
        Crazy how Cruz is still a top 100 player, at 40.

  17. Big Joey says:
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    Keep up the good work! I enjoyed reading this. While I may not agree with everything, no one should! This is fantasy baseball and it would be boring if everyone thought the same.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Thanks Big Joey. Appreicate the kind words

  18. Cory says:
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    Your Robles-bust tout has me rethinking him. I was considering trading for him in a keeper league (9th rd tag) or even reaching a little early for him if he’s thrown back into the draft. I wasn’t aware of his x-stats, though. Thanks for your work.

    • The Real Joey Bart

      The Real Joey Bart says:
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      Thanks for reading man. Yeah the expected stats are ugly but sometimes for fantasy you can look past it if u really believe in a guy. So honestly, it’s up to you cuz at the end of the day, it’s your team

Comments are closed.