There should be plenty of offense to go around tonight. Pitching will be tough to come by. The top 5 pitchers in terms of salary all have warts in my eyes. Wainwright shouldn’t be $10k, much less against the Dodgers. Eovaldi is far from elite and the Rays have the 4th best wRC+ against RHP since the trade deadline. Manoah is Yankee stadium; Peralta’s pitch count will likely continue. Shane McClanahan is tempting but he gave up 4 ERs to Boston in his last start and LHP tend to struggle in Fenway.
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Yu Darvish, SP: $9,000 – Darvish has struggled of late and his pricing is starting to reflect it. Thankfully, the Angels have the 3rd highest K-rate since August 1st with a dismal 76 wRC+ to show for it. Which is “good” enough to be tied with the Pirates for the worst mark in the game. Woof
Frankie Montas, SP: $9,000 – Montas has been excellent since July 1st. He has a 2.35 ERA with a k-rate north of 30% and a .258 wOBA against across 69 IP. Nice.
Catcher / First Base
Salvador Perez / Carlos Santana, C/1B: $3,900 / $2,800 – The wind will be blowing out to left field tonight in Camden Yards. The humidity being above 80% for most of the game. The cherry on top of the sundae? Matt Harvey, he has allowed at least 3 ERs in his last 5 starts.
Ryan Mountcastle / Trey Mancini, C/1B: $3,500 / $3,300 – Mike Minor’s 1.53 HR/9, is the 6th highest mark among qualified pitchers. Camden Yards is the 2nd best home run park for RHB over the last 3 seasons.
Second Base
Mike Moustakas, 2B: $2,300 – It’s been a tough, injury-riddled season for Moose. Thankfully we’re on the daily grind here. Alec Mills over his career has .372 wOBA allowed against LHB vs .271 on RHB.
Ozzie Albies, 2B: $4,200 – Albies against a LHP is almost a plug-and-play for me. I prefer Moustakas because of the price but Albies is much better from the right side. Against LHP over his career, he holds a 148 wRC+ which is HoF territory. Conversely, his wRC+ against RHP is a meager 97.
Third Base
Austin Riley, 3B: $3,700 – Sean Nolin is a 31-year-old journeyman who hasn’t been in the bigs since 2015. The kind of story you tend to root for but bet against. He has a career ERA of 6.47 with a 5.65 FIP across 48.2 IP. Riley has been excellent this year, .303/.377/.535.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,600 – The wheels are officially off for Dallas Keuchel. He’s given up at least 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 games.
Short Stop
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS: $4,400 – Kyle Tyler will start for the Angels tonight. He’s split time between the rotation and bullpen in the minor leagues and threw 3 innings out of the pen in his only MLB appearance. Therefore, it’s unclear how long he will go. The Angels have the 7 highest bullpen ERA this season.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $3,000 – Since the Allstar break, he’s hit .292/.338/.549 with 13 homers with a 16.9% k-rate.
Outfield
Andrew Benintendi, OF: $2,600 – We can thank Mike Matheny’s galaxy brain for batting someone with a .400 slug and an 88 wRC+ in the clean-up spot. He may not be an appealing hitter but $2,600 in Camden against Matt Harvey, in a prime line spot, is a no-brainer.
Brandon Lowe, OF: $3,400 – Eovaldi has spread out his pitch mix as he’s gotten older. However, he still leans on his 4-seam/cutter a combined 56% of the time. Lowe had a .424 wOBA in 2019, .409 in 2020 against those pitches from right-handers.
Tyler Naquin, OF: $2,900 – The wind will be blowing out to left at Wrigley tonight. A great scenario for a platoon hitter against a guy who struggles against lefties.
Bryce Harper, OF: $3,900 – There should be plenty of offense to go around tonight given all the mediocre pitching. Freddy Peralta will start tonight. However, Milwaukee has been limiting his innings and it will most likely be a bullpen game. Ownership will likely be low and worth the gamble.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Slight chance of rain in New York, Baltimore, and Atlanta. However, it shouldn’t be enough to cause rainouts.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Twins (Joe Ryan) at Indians (Triston McKenzie) O/U 9 runs scored – take the under. Ryan had a 92:12 K:BB across 66 IP in AAA this year with a WHIP under 0.80. He looked solid in his first MLB start but gave up a 3 HR early on. McKenzie hasn’t given up more than 2 ERs in his last 4 starts with a 28.7% K-BB.
