Everybody and their grandma is pumped for NFL DFS — it’s easier, there’s less variance, and you can actually count on your aces returning non-negative value. Thanks Robbie Ray! In baseball, we send our ace pitchers out against one of the worst teams in the league — that’s Robbie Ray and the Baltimore Orioles, eff-why-eye — and we get the yawnstipating line of 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER…and 8K. OK, I’m sort of fine with that. But as the most expensive pitcher on the DFS slate, I was less than thrilled to see him labor against some AAA-players and get into a verbal fight with the Orioles’ manager. Blah. But today’s a new day, and we’ve got a new ace who hopefully won’t fall apart at the seams.
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Starting Pitchers
Chalk:
- Corbin Burnes
- Walker Buehler
- Charlie Morton
- Kevin Gausman
We’re into the end of the season and a lot of SP are facing IP caps — Burnes likely won’t go more than 6 IP, and Buehler’s your most likely SP to touch 7 IP. It might be time to stack up on cheap SPs like…
Mid-Tier:
- Zack Wheeler
- Chris Paddack
- Ross Stripling
- Michael Pineda
OK, Zack Wheeler isn’t cheap, but he’s facing Colorado — a lost team that’s top 10 in HR over the past 10 days and in the top half of the league in HR over the past month. That’ll depress rostership a bit. Stripling’s a gamble — he’s been able to go 9 K/9 for short stints and limit damage. Paddack is in a similar vein — boom or bust, but that’s what you want for your GPPs. Pineda’s been blown out a few times recently, which will depress his DFS utilization, so he’s worth a few gambles in your MME events.
Discount Ace: Elieser Hernandez — He missed most of the year with injuries but he’s one of the cheapest 9+ K/9 SPs on the slate. He could easily be the SP that sneaks into the 6IP range with 7K, 1ER, and your GPP love.
Hitters
Remember that I’m writing and submitting this well before roster lock, and these players have a greater than 50% chance of being in the lineup today. As always, check lineups before submitting your entries.
These are my crushers, who are identified as being both favorites in Rudy’s DFS Tools as well as being the top batters on the slate in terms of home/away and handedness splits for wOBA, ISO, and line drive %. Put these batters at a 40%+ exposure or build around them for single entry events:
| Crushers |
|---|
| Kyle Schwarber |
| Rafael Devers |
| Joey Votto |
| Shohei Ohtani |
| Matt Olson |
| Brandon Lowe |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
My Hobbits are batters who have less stringent power requirements but are some of the cheaper bats on the slate.
| Hobbits |
|---|
| Adam Duvall |
| Joey Votto |
| C.J. Cron |
| Jared Walsh |
| Joey Gallo |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
My list of unexpected cheap hitters is huge today. These guys are defined by being the cheapest bats on the slate with the highest line drive % against the handedness split. These guys are also the most likely to sit, so please check lineups if you play these guys.
| Think Differently |
|---|
| Eddie Rosario |
| Ehire Adrianza |
| Cedric Mullins |
| Pedro Severino |
| Ryan Mountcastle |
| Alex Verdugo |
| Travis Shaw |
| Brian Goodwin |
| Jonathan India |
| Akil Baddoo |
| Chris Taylor |
| Cody Bellinger |
| Jesus Sanchez |
| J.D. Davis |
| Michael Conforto |
| Luke Voit |
| Chad Pinder |
| Yan Gomes |
Favored Hitter Stacks
| TOR |
| SF |
| MIL |
| TB |
| HOU |
| TEX |
| WSH |
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Radar says no rain today.
Doing Lines in Vegas
The Padres/Dodgers looks more in favor of the Padres than Vegas is indicating. Rudy’s Teamonator shows a nearly 20% more likelihood for the Padres to win this one than Vegas does. At the time of writing, the Padres are +170 at the major sports books and +190 at the smaller ones. Get those Chris Paddack parlays in place and cross your fingers!
