In my Jo Adell fantasy, I was worried about his strikeouts this year. His strikeouts were a poop emoji giving a speech about how it will never poop itself again knowing that it will never be able to keep that promise. My Dylan Carlson fantasy is not concerned with his less-than-ideal batting average or Ks from last year. Carlson had a 29.4% K% and hit .200 in 110 ABs, but that just doesn’t jive with anything in his minor league numbers. Back up the Hit Tool narrative or gee tee eff oh, you hear me, boy? And ‘boy’ I mean the narrative. Sorry to gender it, but when something’s being dumb, it’s prolly a male, let’s be honest. Unless it’s my wife, then–I kid! Hayzeus Cristo, you trying to get me divorced? What the hell, my dude? You trying to cuck me out of my Cougar?

So, Carlson’s strikeouts last year, just don’t extend any narrative I see from him, and instead feel like this year can be thrown out, and we can go back to his absolutely gorgeous previous year in the minors where he hit 26 homers, stole 20 bags and hit near .300 with a close to 21% strikeout rate, between Double and Triple-A. Also, his walk rate in the minors was solid, and it was not last year. Last year was two months and just needs to be ignored for Carlson. Cards’ season started and stopped more than your ’89 Corolla, then Carlson was sent down to the alternate training site randomly in the middle of the season, when he wasn’t hitting well through a whole 79 plate appearances. Only for him to return, and end the year hitting cleanup in the playoffs. Cards were either without a plan or unable to execute after they kept pulling short straws. If you wanna talk silly sample sizes, Carlson hit .318 with a homer in the final week, and was the Cards’ best hitter by the end of the year. So put that in your dumb narrative and read it to your children! Anyway, what can we expect from Dylan Carlson for 2021 fantasy baseball?

Getting a lot of good vibes from Dylan Carlson, so let’s get the bad vibes out of the way first. Not sure he’s got bigger power than 25 homers or faster speed than 15 steals. 25/15/.280 definitely plays. Everywhere. I’d take that, two shots of Jager and be good for the rest of my life. The problem is those feel like ceilings vs. floors, and he feels like a floor player. He screams to me (in the middle of the night) a guy who is solid if unspectacular. Hits .280 with no problem, but never hits .320. Hits 17-20 homers easily, but never hits 30. Steals 7-12 bags easily, but never steals 20+. Not quite Adam Eaton-type floor, but he’s not eatin’ out with caviar and blinis either. This, of course, could be silly talk since he only just turned 22 years old, and might be a 25/15/.280 for years, which, again, is awesome. And, who knows, power comes later as a hitter picks up the protein shakes and dumbbells. Guess this is a long way of saying Carlson will be a safe, productive rookie in 2021, but a guy like, say, Adell will likely be much worse, but could be much better down the road. Similarly, Carlson could be better than Luis Robert in 2021, due to safety of the tools, but will never match his upside. Unfair to even compare the two. Carlson has a middle infielder’s stats mentality — a 25/12/.280 guy vs. a corner outfielder 35/5/.260, and there’s nothing wrong with that, it’s just different. For 2021, I’ll give Dylan Carlson projections of 69/17/72/.272/8 in 467 ABs with a chance for more.

 
  1. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Carlson is a dud in the spring and Tyler O’Neill steals his job

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d bet more likely is O’Neill is traded to a team for anything

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
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        I like that and O’Neill can become the next in a long line of Randy’s to be good while not on the Cards

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, yeah, could see him excelling in a DH capacity for an AL team — or throw him in left for the Rockies!

          • Malicious Phenoms says:
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            The Rockies have like a half dozen LF’s they don’t already use.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, I know, they have all left fielders

              • Malicious Phenoms says:
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                Rockies are the Mets of the North.. Speaking of DH, is it in play in the NL for 2021?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Think DH is out in NL in 2021

                  • The Itch

                    The Itch says:
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                    Probably right.

                    Whatever the obviously fun and interesting option would be, MLB instinctively goes the other way.

                    Real cocaine lab rat situation.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, MLB runs away from the cheese-crack whenever it can…It will do runner on 2nd in extras before DH — after the next CBA tho, then DH might be in

                    • The Itch

                      The Itch says:
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                      Hmmm this metaphor is crumbling as my mind circles it.

                      Is the rat NOT hitting the cocaine button in this analogy?

                      I’ve lost myself.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      As they say: snap, crackle say cheese!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Wait, hearing now they don’t actually say this

                    • The Itch

                      The Itch says:
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                      Haha you were way ahead of me!

  2. Think the Cards finally commit to the kid and put him into the fray. Sink or swim young man, and while there may be a life preserver or two along the way, he will survive. Carlson moves up as a semi-post hype option that should be a solid citizen in 2021. Like him, thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Like Gloria Gaynor once said, I will Survive, but about Carlson, not I — Carlson’s gonna be a steal in 2021

  3. Toro551 says:
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    Grey,

    who would you rather have in a keeper league; the young Nelson Cruz and Julio Rodriguez or JD Martinez and Chris Paddock?

    Did julio Urias do anything to make himself a top 25 sp?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hmm…Need more info, how deep is this league?

      Urias is around a top 25 SP

      • Toro551 says:
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        Its a 12 team, H2H league. We keep 10 guys.
        Would it be wort trading? If not, what 10 would you keep?

        Current team:
        olson*
        hiura*
        moncada*
        Bo*
        Alvarez*
        Mookie*
        JD*
        B. Lowe
        Buehler*
        Sixto*
        Paddock*
        Urias
        Plesac

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not Paddack, Sixto, PLesac — Tho, Urias or Plesac is close — sure, trade if you can

  4. Dave D says:
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    My first NFBC DC finished last night. It took 77 hours to complete. Heres my team recap, FYI:
    Five
    Player Round Pick Pos Team Duration YTD
    Story, Trevor 1 9 SS Five and Dimers 3 min 49 sec –
    Harper, Bryce 2 22 OF Five and Dimers 1 min 49 sec –
    Robert, Luis 3 39 OF Five and Dimers 9 min 13 sec –
    Devers, Rafael 4 52 3B Five and Dimers 25 min 29 sec –
    Lamet, Dinelson 5 69 P Five and Dimers 3 min 41 sec –
    Valdez, Framber 6 82 P Five and Dimers 15 min 42 sec –
    Gurriel Jr., Lourdes 7 99 OF Five and Dimers 8 min 28 sec –
    Rizzo, Anthony 8 112 1B Five and Dimers 29 sec –
    Luzardo, Jesus 9 129 P Five and Dimers 2 min 16 sec –
    Mountcastle, Ryan 10 142 CI Five and Dimers 13 min 50 sec –
    Robles, Victor 11 159 OF Five and Dimers 23 min 57 sec –
    Gregorius, Didi 12 172 MI Five and Dimers 2 min 41 sec –
    May, Dustin 13 189 P Five and Dimers 9 min 4 sec –
    Varsho, Daulton 14 202 C Five and Dimers 30 sec –
    Mayers, Mike 15 219 P Five and Dimers 30 min –
    Dalbec, Bobby 16 232 UT Five and Dimers 6 sec –
    Gore, MacKenzie 17 249 P Five and Dimers 9 sec –
    Pearson, Nate 18 262 P Five and Dimers 6 sec –
    Walker, Taijuan 19 279 P Five and Dimers 3 min 17 sec –
    Hernandez, Elieser 20 292 P Five and Dimers 3 min 32 sec –
    Peralta, David 21 309 OF Five and Dimers 24 sec –
    Odorizzi, Jake 22 322 P Five and Dimers 12 min –
    Kelly, Carson 23 339 C Five and Dimers 26 sec –
    Holland, Greg 24 352 P Five and Dimers 2 min 1 sec –
    Sheffield, Justus 25 369 P Five and Dimers 24 sec –
    Wong, Kolten 26 382 2B Five and Dimers 4 min 59 sec –
    Harvey, Hunter 27 399 P Five and Dimers 5 sec –
    Upton, Justin 28 412 OF Five and Dimers 6 sec –
    Piscotty, Stephen 29 429 OF Five and Dimers 5 sec –
    Odor, Rougned 30 442 2B Five and Dimers 36 sec –
    Cabrera, Asdrubal 31 459 1B Five and Dimers 3 min 9 sec –
    Solano, Donovan 32 472 2B Five and Dimers 3 min 8 sec –
    Harrison, Monte 33 489 OF Five and Dimers 24 sec –
    Puk, A.J. 34 502 P Five and Dimers 4 min 56 sec –
    Fraley, Jake 35 519 OF Five and Dimers 13 min 22 sec –
    Renfroe, Hunter 36 532 OF Five and Dimers 1 min 53 sec –
    Hahn, Jesse 37 549 P Five and Dimers 2 min 20 sec –
    Aquino, Aristides 38 562 OF Five and Dimers 7 sec –
    Fleming, Josh 39 579 P Five and Dimers 18 min 23 sec –
    Robles, Hansel 40 592 P Five and Dimers 22 sec –
    Gyorko, Jedd 41 609 1B Five and Dimers 3 sec –
    Valdez, Cesar 42 622 P Five and Dimers 30 sec –
    Diaz, Elias 43 639 C Five and Dimers 9 sec –
    Lucchesi, Joey 44 652 P Five and Dimers 2 min 12 sec –
    Drake, Oliver 45 669 P Five and Dimers 17 sec –
    Arauz, Jonathan 46 682 2B Five and Dimers 1 min 16 sec –
    McBroom, Ryan 47 699 1B Five and Dimers 43 sec –
    Astudillo, Willians 48 712 C Five and Dimers 5 sec –
    Wade, Tyler 49 729 2B Five and Dimers 5 sec –
    Slegers, Aaron 50 742 P Five and Dimers 5 sec

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Working backwards forward….Wade, Astudillo, Lucchesi, Fleming, Aquino, Fraley, Solano, Odor, Upton, Harvey — are insane value…I can’t believe you got Pearson and Gore and that late — May, Lamet, Valdez, Luzardo, Walker are all you need from arms, and you didn’t sacrifice hitting at all — How did you get Devers that late?! Robert, Harper–Your OF is crazy solid…You got Rizzo at 112! Yeah, that’s a solid looking team

      • Dave D says:
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        Thanks! I’m excited tor this team. Hopefully I can get back in the W column in 2021 with this bunch. Gotta love these early drafts!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If I had to go hard with one critique, I’d say I want more “safe” starters, like a Lance Lynn type

          • Dave D says:
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            Thats fair. I tried for that type with Walker, Odorizzi, but, yeah, I could have a few guys hit the wall late year. I thought the TB guys I also grabbed late (Fleming and Slegers) could get me through Sept if so. Its not like they will have a heavy workload.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like Fleming, Odorizzi, Walker and Slegers for that reason, yeah… One slightly better safe arm would’ve been nice, but I do like the team overall

  5. Harley Earl says:
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    I’m a Cardinals fan and Carlson is boring. Too bad we couldn’t have saved a spot in the outfield for Arozarena. Pathetic ownership and pathetic front office.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

  6. Jack Straw says:
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    Standard 5x 5 10 team AL only league. I know your love for Matt Olson last season. For 2021 and beyond ($5 annual increases) would you trade C. Biggio (13) for M. Olson (17)? I like Biggio’s power speed combo and recognize he is more valuable in OBP leagues – I just love the power upside of Olson and think pairing him with Lindor would make for a solid category foundation. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That sounds like a push, if Olson’s better for your team, it works for me

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